The Official Off-season Prediction Thread

[Second Base]

I think everyone enjoys reading about the direction the Angels will take, and work those predictions, inevitably comes some disappointment when we realize the players we want the Angels to target go elsewhere. At any rate, I thought it would be fun to get all the free agency and trade predictions in one thread and revisit it before Spring Training to see who guessed the Angels off-season moves the most accurately.

If no one minds, I'll kick it off, but I look forward to reading all of yours.

1. Sign Gerrit Cole 7 years, 220 million. - He's a local, was in the stands in 2002, multiple reports indicate he's hoping to sign with a California team, the Angels have the need and the funds to make it happen. - January 2020.

2. Sign Jake Odorizzi - 4 years, 70 million - Eppler loves his former top prospects, and Odorizzi played under Maddon in Tampa Bay. A new off-season workout regimen under the same guy who turned Verlander and Gibson's careers around, yielded 2-3 additional mph on his fastball. He's back in the mid-90's like he was as a prospect, and he had a very good year in Minnesota. Minimal injury history. He's a solid bet to remain a decent #3-4 starter for the length of his contract. - December, 2019.

3. Angels sign Todd Frazier - 1 year, 6 million - Last winter, Eppler made it clear that he would prefer to have a left handed hitting compliment to Albert Pujols at 1B when he signed Justin Bour. Obviously, Bour didn't work out like we had hoped, but the need still remains, as Thaiss and Walsh are still unproven at the major league level and have options. Frazier should help bridge that gap until they're ready, and he could log some time at 3B and DH as well, making for semi-regular at bats. As a bonus, he's friends with Mike Trout. - December, 2019.

4. Angels trade Zack Cozart, Jahmai Jones and Robinson Pina to the Nationals for Yan Gomes - The Angels need a starting catcher, and could spend the money on D'Arnaud or Grandal, or they could trade for it. Gomes has fallen into a backup role in Washington, and has a 9 million dollar option for 2020 and an 11 million dollar option for 2021.  Cozart is owed 12 million this year. Basically, think of this as the Nationals are purchasing Jahmai Jones and Robinson Pina for 3 million. If Cozart is healthy and helps fill the void left by Rendon, all the better. November, 2019.

5. Angels sign Mickey Calloway to be the pitching coach - More connection to 2002, and he has experience working with Gomes as his starting catcher.

 

[totdprods]

Good stuff @Second Base, love the Cozart-Gomes trade idea - makes sense for both teams, though I know a bunch of people are going to comment that there's no way Washington - or anyone - would deal for Cozart, completely missing the point you raised about it basically just being a cash for prospects deal.

[Second Base]

1 hour ago, totdprods said:

Good stuff @Second Base, love the Cozart-Gomes trade idea - makes sense for both teams, though I know a bunch of people are going to comment that there's no way Washington - or anyone - would deal for Cozart, completely missing the point you raised about it basically just being a cash for prospects deal.

Thanks! I thought a lot about it, comparing Ramos, Gomes, Grandal and D'Arnaud. They each had their positives. Ultimately, I think if Calloway is here, the rapport he has with Gomes, and Gomes well rounded game would be the determining factor.

Edited October 24, 2019 by Second Base

[Taylor]

What makes this one official? How can I spot artificial prediction threads?

[Chuck]

Remember guys to make your three selections. If you didn't choose Joe Maddon already and you posted your picks before he was announced as manager, you cannot add him now. 

 

 

[Lou]

1 minute ago, Taylor said:

What makes this one official? How can I spot artificial prediction threads?

 

hi @Tank

[Second Base]

6 minutes ago, Chuckster70 said:

Remember guys to make your three selections. If you didn't choose Joe Maddon already and you posted your picks before he was announced as manager, you cannot add him now. 

 

 

I didn't know we had an official one yet.

[Second Base]

1 hour ago, Lou said:

 

hi @Tank

Benedict Cucumberbstch!

[Warfarin]

Entering the offseason, assuming they decline Calhoun's option and DFA Bour, Garcia, and Tropeano (instead of offering arbitration), we'll probably be right around 140mil in terms of payroll/CBT.  So - we likely have around 50-60mil of payroll/AAV that we can add.

1.  Sign Cole to a 7/225 deal (~32mil AAV).   We'll have one of the best pitchers in baseball and the local boy returns home.

2.  Sign Ryu to a 3/60 deal (20mil AAV).  They'll try to sign Wheeler, but given the commitment they just gave Cole, they'll opt to sign Ryu instead.  Ryu also won't cost them a pick, and we know how much Eppler hates giving up picks.

3.  Sign Grandal to a 3/48 deal (16mil AAV).  We have no catching talent anywhere.  Grandal is a LH power presence too, which is something we need.

4.  Trade Simba for a mid-rotation SP prospect (and others?) (saves 8mil AAV, 15 mil salary, which enables us to pull off the other three moves).  This will be an unpopular move, but it saves payroll space.  I also don't think they'll re-sign him as a FA, so at least this way, they can get something in exchange for him.

Rotation:  Cole, Ryu, Ohtani, Heaney, Canning, with Sandoval, Barria, Suarez all as immediate depth.  "SP" prospect that we acquire for Simba will be part of the depth options.

Lineup:  3B LaStella, CF Trout, Ohtani DH, Grandal C, Upton LF, Goodwin RF, Fletcher SS, Thaiss/Pujols 1B, Rengifo 2B

[Tank]

7 hours ago, Lou said:

 

hi @Tank

I miss Keira Knightly.

[Second Base]

1 hour ago, Tank said:

I miss Keira Knightly.

She misses you too, Tank.

[Troll Daddy]

1. I think Arte will get his man but it won’t come cheap. 7yrs/$245M

2. I like the idea of trading Cozart. Very doubtful if it’s to the Nationals ... Rendon will sign with the Nationals. 

3. Eppler will sign or trade for another starting pitcher but not a top tier pitcher. Something around $10M per year  ... something like Anibal Sanchez. 

4. Catcher will be a high priority ... the team will be leaning towards defense first. Grandal has a club option  for $16M ... either side can decline. Salvador Perez would be nice if he can stay healthy and the Royals willing to trade.

5. I’m not completely sold on our offense and I think Eppler feels the same way. We need a Jose Altuve type of bat who hits for average and pop. Sounds like Maddon has a hard on for Fletcher and La Stella ... so I’m guessing first base is a position in need. I would be okay with a Howie Kendrick reunion. 

Arte’s is going on a spending spree so it should be a fun off season ... go Angel baseball ️ 

[Angelsjunky]

1. Angels sign Gerrit Cole for 7/$245M.

2. Angels sign Yasmani Grandal for 3/$51M.

3. Angels trade Jaime Barria, Kyle Bradish, Jahmai Jones, and Taylor Ward for Matthew Boyd and Jake Rogers.

4. Angels sign Drew Pomeranz for 1/$8M.

 

(The last two were pulled right out of my arse, but I wanted to go for random and bold).

Edited October 25, 2019 by Angelsjunky

[Blarg]

Last year you guys were talking stupid money for Machado, Harper and Trout and now this year Cole the same for a pitcher that will be 36 by contracts end. I think you're overestimating player value, or if you are not I hope the Angels pass. 

[Second Base]

7 hours ago, Angelsjunky said:

1. Angels sign Gerrit Cole for 7/$245M.

2. Angels sign Yasmani Grandal for 3/$51M.

3. Angels trade Jaime Barria, Kyle Bradish, Jahmai Jones, and Taylor Ward for Matthew Boyd and Jake Rogers.

4. Angels sign Drew Pomeranz for 1/$8M.

 

(The last two were pulled right out of my arse, but I wanted to go for random and bold).

Holy moly that's a lot of money.

[Second Base]

5 hours ago, Blarg said:

Last year you guys were talking stupid money for Machado, Harper and Trout and now this year Cole the same for a pitcher that will be 36 by contracts end. I think you're overestimating player value, or if you are not I hope the Angels pass. 

What's your guess on what he'll get?

[totdprods]

28 minutes ago, Second Base said:

What's your guess on what he'll get?

I’m crossing my fingers that an impressionable college ace/Angel fan Gerrit Cole saw Angel ace/Boras client Jered Weaver sign an extremely team-friendly deal, and as a result, at the very least, doesn’t try to squeeze every dime possible out of the deal, so the Angels aren’t totally risking being handicapped while he’s here. My guess is 7/$220m. Fair price, a record-breaker, but nothing insane like $240m+.

Edited October 25, 2019 by totdprods

[floplag]

I like it, the Gomes and Frazier ideas were very creative and i would back both of them.  My only concern there is not knowing too much about Gomes defensively but if hes an upgrade i would really like that.   Im also not sure hes a difference maker on a larger scale unless we go for another impact bat such as Rendon but i kinda doubt that happens.
My only change i would make is i kinda like Wheeler over Odorizzi as some of his numbers on stuff like spin rates i believe were better.

[Pancake Bear]

I already made my three predictions in the other thread (and have forgotten half of them). But I'll indulge a lengthier take here just for kicks:

I think the Angels will sign Cole. The timing of his free agency is a perfect storm. The Angels have the need, the means, and the desperation to make the high bid. They have the connection to him and the word on the street is he's looking to come back to CA. 

There are no sure things in baseball, but I'm about as confident as one can be without being certain that he'll sign with the Angels. I could be wrong. Usually with things like this, the narrative ends up not happening, but there is too much that makes sense about this for it to not happen, imo. 

I don't think the Astros, Yankees or Dodgers will make a serious play for Cole (that is, I don't think any of them will make a truly competitive offer in both years and total money to what he ends up with).

I think the Astros stand pat on pitching, and the Dodgers will maybe re-sign Ryu, but nothing else.

I think the Yankees won't want to make the commitment to Cole. I think Cashman goes hard for Wheeler and gets him. 

I don't think Eppler will want to make a big trade, but if he struggles to get a second guy, I think Arte will push him to make a second major acquisition. 

I think Eppler goes after Hamels or one of the other 2/3 tier guys. 

I think we could afford to grab Cole and Strasburg, but with Cole in the bag they won't want the risk of another long-term deal. 

If Eppler can't find a second tier pitcher he likes that is good enough for Arte, I think he will be pressured to make a big trade for Syndergaard or Boyd. I doubt that happens, but I think Arte is tired of waiting.

Maybe Eppler pushes for someone like Ray to try to keep the farm as intact as possible. 

I think Eppler pursues Grandal big time and brings him in. 

I don't think we pursue Rendon at all.

I think Callaway is brought in as pitching coach.

I have no idea on bench coach. I'm gonna guess it's someone I'm not really familiar with.

I think there's a slight chance Maddon lobbies for and succeeds in getting Zobrist to the Angels on a one year deal. It really only makes sense because of the Maddon connection, that Zobrist is older and not looking for a big deal, and still can play effectively. Slight chance, though. 

I'm on the fence about whether Eppler makes anything more than low level moves for the bullpen. I think he would probably stand pat, but Arte may want a name guy. 

I am 100% confident on these picks. At least for now.

[Docwaukee]

On 10/24/2019 at 10:05 AM, Second Base said:

I think everyone enjoys reading about the direction the Angels will take, and work those predictions, inevitably comes some disappointment when we realize the players we want the Angels to target go elsewhere. At any rate, I thought it would be fun to get all the free agency and trade predictions in one thread and revisit it before Spring Training to see who guessed the Angels off-season moves the most accurately.

If no one minds, I'll kick it off, but I look forward to reading all of yours.

1. Sign Gerrit Cole 7 years, 220 million. - He's a local, was in the stands in 2002, multiple reports indicate he's hoping to sign with a California team, the Angels have the need and the funds to make it happen. - January 2020.

2. Sign Jake Odorizzi - 4 years, 70 million - Eppler loves his former top prospects, and Odorizzi played under Maddon in Tampa Bay. A new off-season workout regimen under the same guy who turned Verlander and Gibson's careers around, yielded 2-3 additional mph on his fastball. He's back in the mid-90's like he was as a prospect, and he had a very good year in Minnesota. Minimal injury history. He's a solid bet to remain a decent #3-4 starter for the length of his contract. - December, 2019.

3. Angels sign Todd Frazier - 1 year, 6 million - Last winter, Eppler made it clear that he would prefer to have a left handed hitting compliment to Albert Pujols at 1B when he signed Justin Bour. Obviously, Bour didn't work out like we had hoped, but the need still remains, as Thaiss and Walsh are still unproven at the major league level and have options. Frazier should help bridge that gap until they're ready, and he could log some time at 3B and DH as well, making for semi-regular at bats. As a bonus, he's friends with Mike Trout. - December, 2019.

4. Angels trade Zack Cozart, Jahmai Jones and Robinson Pina to the Nationals for Yan Gomes - The Angels need a starting catcher, and could spend the money on D'Arnaud or Grandal, or they could trade for it. Gomes has fallen into a backup role in Washington, and has a 9 million dollar option for 2020 and an 11 million dollar option for 2021.  Cozart is owed 12 million this year. Basically, think of this as the Nationals are purchasing Jahmai Jones and Robinson Pina for 3 million. If Cozart is healthy and helps fill the void left by Rendon, all the better. November, 2019.

5. Angels sign Mickey Calloway to be the pitching coach - More connection to 2002, and he has experience working with Gomes as his starting catcher.

 

1. agree and it will get done earlier than people think.  Sometime in Dec.  

2. I'd shake my head and desperately hope I'm wrong about him but that feels like an Ian Kennedy redux

3. meh.  he's also RHed.  I think the halos stand pat everywhere else but C as far as position players go except maybe some vet on min $$ or minor league deal.  

4. Cozart isn't going anywhere.  We're stuck with him.  They're not even sure he can ever play again.  So no one is going to take on his money even as a salary offset.  They'll FA a catcher and how much they spend will depend on what they anticipate spending on pitching.  

5. I'd be cool with that.  

Mine would be 

Cole 7/220
Gibson 3/27
Grandal 3/50
Zobrist 1/1 or a minor league deal
Collin McHugh 2/11 or some other lesser priced guy who has also been a starter at one point.  Maybe Drew Pomeranz.  

 

[wopphil]

I'd like to see 2 big pitcher signings and a trade for a third guy. Sign Cole and Wheeler, trade for Boyd.

But dont stop there. Bite the bullet and get the third baseman we have needed forever. Sign Rendon.

Back load the deals a bit to make the cash work. Cozart, Pujols and Upton come off the books in successive years, and there are cheap replacements for them all in house. 

[Second Base]

I think I should remind everyone, it's a prediction of what you think THE ANGELS WILL DO, not what you would personally do.

Edited October 26, 2019 by Second Base

[Second Base]

9 hours ago, Dochalo said:

1. agree and it will get done earlier than people think.  Sometime in Dec.  

2. I'd shake my head and desperately hope I'm wrong about him but that feels like an Ian Kennedy redux

3. meh.  he's also RHed.  I think the halos stand pat everywhere else but C as far as position players go except maybe some vet on min $$ or minor league deal.  

4. Cozart isn't going anywhere.  We're stuck with him.  They're not even sure he can ever play again.  So no one is going to take on his money even as a salary offset.  They'll FA a catcher and how much they spend will depend on what they anticipate spending on pitching.  

5. I'd be cool with that.  

Mine would be 

Cole 7/220
Gibson 3/27
Grandal 3/50
Zobrist 1/1 or a minor league deal
Collin McHugh 2/11 or some other lesser priced guy who has also been a starter at one point.  Maybe Drew Pomeranz.  

 

Another idea I suppose it's too spread the money out a little more evenly to try and build a deeper team and not sacrifice any draft picks or international bonus slots. Something like Grandal, Ryu, Pineda, Hill and Miley, which collectively would cost the same as Cole, Wheeler and D'Arnaud.

Upgrades the offense at catcher, and creates a deep rotation consisting of Ryu, Ohtani, Hill, Pineda, Miley, Heaney. You know Ryu, Ohtani and Hill will all three would be quality front of the rotation starters when they're healthy, and Pineda and Miley are steady back end guys that will have runs as mid rotation starters. And inevitably, when the injuries do come, that's when they promote Canning and Sandoval, not before.

It's not what I would do, but I suppose there is a compelling argument to be made in favor of that tract.

[Docwaukee]

8 hours ago, Creepyjo said:

Really don’t understand the attraction to this bum Boyd. 

So why in hell do you want to trade for this....

I don't get it either.  There are plenty of FA options that wouldn't be crazy expensive and give you what he does.  

[Docwaukee]

1 hour ago, Second Base said:

I think I should remind everyone, it's a prediction of what you think THE ANGELS WILL DO, not what you would personally do.

what I think they will do is 

Cole, a cheaper FA starter for about 12m for 2-3 years, a catcher at 5-8 mil for 1-2 years.  A couple waiver pen pickups.