The Angels amateur drafts under Billy Eppler

[Docwaukee]

6 minutes ago, RBM said:

Dakota Hudson

one or two guys.  every draft has one or two guys.  or three or four in fact.  We can go back to every draft for every team and pick out the few guys that teams are kicking themselves about.

let's look at 2009 for example.  I'm not even gonna go there with Trout because it's too obvious.  

The Padres  took Donovan Tate with the third overall pick.  Currently out of baseball.  
The A's took Grant Green
The Astros took Giovanni Mier
The Dogs took Aaron Miller one pick before James Paxton

In 2008, the Rays took Tim Beckham when they had Posey available
The cards took Brett Wallace
Gerrit Cole was the 28th pick so almost every other team passed on him.  (and he didn't sign of course)

9 teams passed on Bumgarner in 2007
Josh Donaldson was the 48th pick that year

Max Scherzer was the 11th pick in 2006.  Kershaw was the 7th pick that year.  

I can keep going btw.  Every draft is like this.  Even the 2014 draft is still evolving.  

Hudson btw is a sinker guy with a low K rate and an FIP of 4.99.  We'll see how that works out long term.  

[Stradling]

This is a good thread.   Really good.  A bunch of people I respect putting up their sides of discussion.  I’ll side with the one that uses context.  

[Inside Pitch]

3 minutes ago, Chuckster70 said:

While true, you can get away with signing a couple guys again to a one-year deal (although better than the likes of Cahill and Harvey) since you have a couple guys knocking on the door in AA-AAA. 

We don't have that option now, outside of maybe Sandoval. 

Jose Suarez looked cooked as a starting pitcher. He may be a decent Jose Alvarez type out of the pen, but I don't see much there. He owns a 4.07 ERA vs. lefthanded bats, but an awful 8.96 ERA and 2.03 WHIP against righties in the big leagues. 

Deja vu....

Suarez is 21 years old and has zero command currently.  He shouldnt be pitching in MLB but he's been forced to do so.    I'm a hug stats guy and Im not even bothering looking at his numbers -- even the ones that show some promise like his K rate and the numbers .vs LHBs

Dude isn't ready.

 

 

[Docwaukee]

1 minute ago, Baghdad Strad said:

This is a good thread.   Really good.  A bunch of people I respect putting up their sides of discussion.  I’ll side with the one that uses context.  

Context is everything.  We got Trout, Grichuk, Skaggs, Corbin and Richards in one draft and it's considered one of the best drafts of all time.  Yet suddenly we're looking back on drafts that are recent and already calling them failures where the expectation is that we should be getting a top of the rotation starter with our first two picks every year.  

Has anyone acknowledged that Canning was one of the first starting pitchers to make it to the bigs from the 2017 draft?  Even McKay and Wright have had less early success and they were drafted at the top of the first round.  

[Inside Pitch]

1 hour ago, Chuckster70 said:

Between Eppler's fillers and his complete ignorance in letting top tier college and HS arms go past him in the drafts, what has he done to improve the rotation?

He's done two good things. Signed Ohtani and drafted Canning in the second round. 

Here's the thing @Inside Pitch, Eppler needs to be both creative in trades and open all of Arte's wallets this offseason to bolster what is the weakest starting staff in the game right now, especially if Ohtani is just a 5 inning guy on a pitch count, pitching just every 6th day arm. 

Complete ignorance?   What do you call pretending the Angels position player situation wasn't just as awful if not worse than the pitching that at it's worst had Richards, Santiago, Skaggs, Heaney, Shoemaker, and Tropeano?    

Either you suddenly believe the man is an idiot or you were lying to yourself when you were praising him previously.  For me nothing has changed -- he came into a horrible situation and started from ground zero minus the luxury of any financial freedom.  Hindsight means we now know that all the pitching he had in place would end up getting hurt but, the rotation was supposedly the one thing he had to build off of, so he did.  Even now, after focusing on the position player side of things the Angels are thin prospect wise.   This 180 after the fact is just revisionist history and I'm not going to waste a lot of time pretending otherwise.

You're preaching to the choir about what he needs to do next -- the only difference is I've remained consistent in what he came into and what he's managed to do.  

[Stradling]

4 minutes ago, Dochalo said:

Context is everything.  We got Trout, Grichuk, Skaggs, Corbin and Richards in one draft and it's considered one of the best drafts of all time.  Yet suddenly we're looking back on drafts that are recent and already calling them failures where the expectation is that we should be getting a top of the rotation starter with our first two picks every year.  

Has anyone acknowledged that Canning was one of the first starting pitchers to make it to the bigs from the 2017 draft?  Even McKay and Wright have had less early success and they were drafted at the top of the first round.  

Usually reasonable people are becoming less reasonable based on the way the team has played this year. 

[Taylor]

43 minutes ago, Chuckster70 said:

Eppler has taken risks on high ceiling, high VELO relievers and did pretty good, but his garbage bin selections of starting pitchers such as Bridwell, Meyer, Lamb, etc. didn't work out too well. 

It's almost like he hates drafting talented young pitching, signing them via FA or trading for them. Hell, he even traded two SP prospects in our top 10 prospects list for Simmons. Good trade in hindsight but holy hell. How many middle infielders and centerfielders does this guy need? 

Let's not forget about Matt Shoemaker. Yeah he got injured, but he sure looked great before blowing out his leg after 5 starts for the Blue Jays. 

Hate to make you cry some more, @Taylor but here's a list of Eppler's starting pitchers he's acquired or signed since he's been GM. Wake me up when you find someone worth a dime that's contributed in a positive manner, outside of Shohei Ohtani and maybe JC Ramirez in 2017.

Dillon Peters
Parker Bridwell
Deck McGuire
John Lamb
Odrisamer Despaigne
Alex Meyer
Trevor Cahill
Matt Harvey
Luke Farrell
Chris Stratton
Drew Hutchison
Luiz Gohara
Manny Banuelos 
Tim Lincecum
Jesse Chavez
Doug Fister
Cory Rasmus
JC Ramirez
David Huff
Kyle Kendrick
Troy Scribner

 

This is a thread (that you created) about Eppler's amateur drafts. You're now making an argument about his FA pitching selections, which I think all of us agree have been incredibly underwhelming (at best).

But defending his amateur drafts or saying that it's too early to judge doesn't make someone a nutswinger.

[Stradling]

The idea we can judge a draft 14 months later is ludicrous, especially when we are dealing with high school kids.  

[Second Base]

2 hours ago, Baghdad Strad said:

What are your thoughts on the guys drafted after Adams, the pitchers most notably?  Are they as good as their numbers, did Eppler miss out?  When I say this it is in comparison to drafting Adams.  Adams looks like a freak of nature athletically from the small sample I have seen.  

I think it was a noble effort on Eppler's part to address the needs of this organization without sacrificing a top pick on any one pitcher. But to me, it highlights the shortcomings of this approach. Dipoto did the same thing, draft a bunch of college pitchers and hope for the best.

But it just doesn't work. If you want to stick your system with good, projectable major league arms then you need to invest in it. There's a reason Griffin Canning was a Top 100 prospect and or top picking prospect outside of Shohei Ohtani. It's because generally speaking, the Griffin Cannings of the world aren't available outside of the second round, and really, they were fortunate to be able to get him there.

Aaron Hernandez is going to be a stud reliever. Short in stature, upper 90's fastball and a killer breaking ball. He won't last as a starter in the upper minors, but that's not a bad outcome for a third round pick.

Kyle Bradish is a back end starter. But again, a 4th rounder making the major leagues at all is a positive outcome.

William Holmes has some pretty exciting upside to both sides of his game, but he's still in rookie ball. Way too early to tell anything.

Austin Warren is a middle reliever that can't find the plate enough yet. Is starting to hit mid-90's though. So Michael Kohn as a reference.

Andrew Wantz is trying to make that transition to starter, but again, he misses the plate a lot and as a starter is sitting 91. Probably a reliever too.

So I see this collection and I think, "a power reliever, a lottery ticket and depth fodder." But that's what most players drafted in the middle rounds become. It's not an indictment on Swanson or Eppler. But if you want major league mid rotation or better talent, particular from the college mound, you'll have to intentional pick it, instead of toolsy high school middle infielders and outfielders.

[Stradling]

1 minute ago, Second Base said:

I think it was a noble effort on Eppler's part to address the needs of this organization without sacrificing a top pick on any one pitcher. But to me, it highlights the shortcomings of this approach. Dipoto did the same thing, draft a bunch of college pitchers and hope for the best.

But it just doesn't work. If you want to stick your system with good, projectable major league arms then you need to invest in it. There's a reason Griffin Canning was a Top 100 prospect and or top picking prospect outside of Shohei Ohtani. It's because generally speaking, the Griffin Cannings of the world aren't available outside of the second round, and really, they were fortunate to be able to get him there.

Aaron Hernandez is going to be a stud reliever. Short in stature, upper 90's fastball and a killer breaking ball. He won't last as a starter in the upper minors, but that's not a bad outcome for a third round pick.

Kyle Bradish is a back end starter. But again, a 4th rounder making the major leagues at all is a positive outcome.

William Holmes has some pretty exciting upside to both sides of his game, but he's still in rookie ball. Way too early to tell anything.

Austin Warren is a middle reliever that can't find the plate enough yet. Is starting to hit mid-90's though. So Michael Kohn as a reference.

Andrew Wantz is trying to make that transition to starter, but again, he misses the plate a lot and as a starter is sitting 91. Probably a reliever too.

So I see this collection and I think, "a power reliever, a lottery ticket and depth fodder." But that's what most players drafted in the middle rounds become. It's not an indictment on Swanson or Eppler. But if you want major league mid rotation or better talent, particular from the college mound, you'll have to intentional pick it, instead of toolsy high school middle infielders and outfielders.

Thank you Scotty for all of this information because now I have to apologize.  What I was asking was what do you think of the guys other organizations drafted in 2018 after the Angels drafted Adams.  In other words, what did we miss out on, compared to what we got in Adams?  

[Docwaukee]

and I will say that Eppler's failure on the free agent pitching front is why I think this discussion is happening.  All of his drafts are TBD for the most part so far.  Injuries, bad choices and limited payroll with tons of holes to fill elsewhere have combined to form this perception that we should have been drafting pitchers.  

If the FO got together and decided that they were going to draft pitching close to the majors three years ago in anticipation of a bad free agent crop for 2019, I don't find that to be a good strategy.  

They need to get better at signing major league talent and we won't have to worry about drafting for need and can continue to infuse as much talent into the org as possible regardless of what position they play because that's the key.  

[Inside Pitch]

1 minute ago, RBM said:

I agree. My point in mentioning Dakota Hudson was that @Chuckster70 in his post included the 2016 draft in his comments, the only one that can really show any MLB success or failure for Eppler so far, and you changed the narrative to AA pitchers who we just don't know about yet. Dakota Hudson clearly supports his point and it was  in line with a point I made earlier.

Now, I think it's important at this point to mention one can be in favor of Eppler's overall performance and still be critical of some/many of his individual decisions. Hell, it's the reason I started posting on AW last year.

So let me get this straight.  The ONLY draft that Eppler can be judged on is the one he had all of 2 months of amateur baseball to prepare for?   Is that what Chuck was saying when I "changed the narrative"?    Because if so..  I got joke, lots of them.

 BTW...  you've done this before and while I can appreciate the idea behind it you can spare me the talk about people being capable of being in favor of his overall performance while still being critical of Eppler..  I don't have a problem with people being critical of him, I've done it.  I went on record BEFORE we signed them that I wanted no part of Allen or Harvey, I have also said from day one that he has to wear his FA mistakes -- do I need to call him names in order for that to register as a criticism?  I would if I actually thought he deserved it.   What I'm not guilty of doing is pulling a 180 and pretending all the things I have said in favor of him previously were suddenly false. 

I haven't forgotten what he had and didn't have when he got here.  I didn't forget what things likely factored into the decision making then, nor am I using hindsight to criticize him now.  I don't think the guy is perfect by any means but, I'm not going to knee-jerk and pretend he's a moron all of sudden after a bad season.  Everything that was in place coming into this season still is, only now there are a couple added positives in LaStella and Goodwin -- Rengifo too although I think most people think he's been worse than he actually has due to his batting average.  

Lastly, I've said repeatedly he'd be making a huge mistake in not getting out in front of the FA market and signing a upper echelon pitcher in advance of Gerrit Cole.  If they pin their hopes on one guy and end up scrambling I'll be apeshit.  Also, IMO trading Marsh would be a mistake, he hasn't shown power yet but he's likely the safest bet we have to be a quality above average position player.  So, IMO if ever there was a year when Arte needed to prove he is willing to spend it's this one.

[Inside Pitch]

26 minutes ago, RBM said:

I agree. It's about context. If you go back my point was that IP was stuck on pitchers currently in AA while Chuck was including the 2016 draft which has current MLB impact.

My point had nothing to do with the 2016 or ANY draft in particular ...  MY POINT is that it's completely ridiculous to point to any group of age appropriate for their level pitchers currently in High A and AA and then argue they would be any better than guys the same age currently in MLB, pitchers who actually put up better predictive numbers while in AA.  If anyone is "stuck" on something it's not me...

I'm way less interested in arguing about the particulars of any one draft -- in fact, if you go through this thread you won't find me arguing in favor of any of the picks made by Eppler.   Hell, the guy I wanted when we took Adams hasn't even been mentioned -- Logan Gilbert (he was taken two spots before him).

[tdawg87]

The owner of this website getting roasted itt lol

[Stax]

For the most part the Angels took the best player available, at that draft spot. Sometimes they took a safe pick in the first round in hopes of landing a stud in the later rounds. Since the Angels thought, that is what the draft was dictating, that stud(s) would be there in later round(s). By taking a safe first round pick they could sign him under slot and lure that later round stud with more money. By taking a safe first round pick, they hope he can become an average regular and hope that stud pans out. 

[UndertheHalo]

I support the fair impulses of all Angels fans to take a shit on Billy Eppler, Matt Swanson, Arte Moreno and honestly the entire organization.  Wrong or not.  After almost decade of this shit at the end of another disastrous season.  I think fans should vent.  Irrationally if they want to.  We put up with the Angels shit.  They can put up with some bitching.  I feel like that’s whats going on here.  Good. 

I hope the organizational is massively aware of how disappointed fans are with how shit is going.  I hope that the Angels organization is finally for once feeling some real external pressure to not be fuc*cking failures. 

I don’t agree with everything Chuck is trying to point out regarding the draft.  But it’s good to see well articulated criticism - right or wrong.  Garbage drafts are at the heart of all of the Angels problems.  Scrutinize away imo. 

Edited September 18, 2019 by UndertheHalo

[Inside Pitch]

2 minutes ago, UndertheHalo said:

I support the rights of all Angels fans to take a shit on Billy Eppler, Matt Swanson, Arte Moreno and honestly the entire organization.  Wrong or not.  After almost decade of this shit at the end of another disastrous season.  I think fans should vent.  Irrationally if they want to.  We put up with the Angels shit.  They can put up with some bitching.  I feel like that’s whats going on here.  Good. 

I hope the organizational is massively aware of how disappointed fans are with how shit is going.  I hope that the Angels organization is finally for once feeling some real external pressure to not be fuc*cking failures. 

I don’t agree with everything Chuck is trying to point out regarding the draft.  But it’s good to see well articulated criticism - right or wrong.  Garbage drafts are at the heart of all of the Angels problems.  Scrutinize away. 

Preach!

Goes to show it's possible to disagree and not have a discussion go sideways.

[Second Base]

1 hour ago, Baghdad Strad said:

Thank you Scotty for all of this information because now I have to apologize.  What I was asking was what do you think of the guys other organizations drafted in 2018 after the Angels drafted Adams.  In other words, what did we miss out on, compared to what we got in Adams?  

Ya know.....I never really pay attention to who other organizations draft usually. I mean I end up figuring it out one way or another, but I think it's not necessarily fair to grade a GM based on that. If it were fair, then every single GM from 2009 outside of Tony Reagins would need to fired for passing on Mike Trout.

I will say that if it was me picking at the time, I'd have gone with a pitcher, or Nolan Gorman, who was about as built as any high school agreed kid could be. @Dochalo was in the same boat if I'm not mistaken. But I'm not disappointed in Adams at all though. Billy Eppler has the best track record for eyeing talented prep outfielders that are more than just raw tools. He was all over Trout when he was with Oppenheimer and Cashman with the Yankees. Jahmai Jones was an astute pick and may still pay dividends (though I think he was Dipoto, but Eppler didn't trade him). He nailed it on Brandon Marsh, nailed it in Jo Adell, and will probably nail it on Adams too.

Not all athletic outfielders turn out that way. Chevy Clarke and Ryan Bolden immediately come to mind.

So Billy's track record suggests that before long, Adams could be viewed as the steal of the draft. Personally, when I watched video on him, I thought he was too skinny, too raw. He looked like an athlete trying to play baseball. But his capacity for learning and the pace at which he's developed on the field and physically matured is astounding.

I suppose that's why Eppler is where he is, and I'm talking on a message board during my prep period.

[Chuck]

2 hours ago, tdawg87 said:

The owner of this website getting roasted itt lol

Wait, I am? There doesn't have to be a right or wrong in this discussion either, It's called a difference in opinion and a discussion. I call it agreeing to disagree. I've listed the good, the bad and the ugly about Eppler in several threads over the course of the year, including this one. 

That said, if I'm going to get roasted I have no problem if it's from the likes of @Dochalo and @Inside Pitch, both of whom I respect. 

2 hours ago, UndertheHalo said:

I support the fair impulses of all Angels fans to take a shit on Billy Eppler, Matt Swanson, Arte Moreno and honestly the entire organization.  Wrong or not.  After almost decade of this shit at the end of another disastrous season.  I think fans should vent.  Irrationally if they want to.  We put up with the Angels shit.  They can put up with some bitching.  I feel like that’s whats going on here.  Good. 

I hope the organizational is massively aware of how disappointed fans are with how shit is going.  I hope that the Angels organization is finally for once feeling some real external pressure to not be fuc*cking failures. 

I don’t agree with everything Chuck is trying to point out regarding the draft.  But it’s good to see well articulated criticism - right or wrong.  Garbage drafts are at the heart of all of the Angels problems.  Scrutinize away imo. 

I agree. 

I also don't put all of the blame on Eppler's drafts, as Dipoto was awful and put this org in a terrible position that Eppler had to fix. I'm mostly pointing out Eppler's drafts thus far and while more time is needed to fairly judge them, so far on the surface to me, I just find them below average based on need -- but I will be the first to admit I'm wrong 3-4 years down the road after these guys have had time to go through the process in pro-ball and take their lumps first in the big leagues. 

 I agree with IP right now that we shouldn't trade Brandon Marsh, though if we get offered a young cost controlled starting pitcher with ace-like stuff, we may have to look at that down the road. 

[Stradling]

When did we have a garbage draft with Eppler?  Once again it’s fine to criticize but there’s zero reason to exaggerate failure even you’re trying to have an actual discussion.  

[Docwaukee]

5 minutes ago, Chuckster70 said:

Wait, I am? There doesn't have to be a right or wrong in this discussion either, It's called a difference in opinion and a discussion. I call it agreeing to disagree. I've listed the good, the bad and the ugly about Eppler in several threads over the course of the year, including this one. 

That said, if I'm going to get roasted I have no problem if it's from the likes of @Dochalo and @Inside Pitch, both of whom I respect. 

I agree. 

I also don't put all of the blame on Eppler's drafts, as Dipoto was awful and put this org in a terrible position that Eppler had to fix. I'm mostly pointing out Eppler's drafts thus far and while more time is needed to fairly judge them, so far on the surface to me, I just find them below average based on need -- but I will be the first to admit I'm wrong 3-4 years down the road after these guys have had time to go through the process in pro-ball and take their lumps first in the big leagues. 

 I agree with IP right now that we shouldn't trade Brandon Marsh, though if we get offered a young cost controlled starting pitcher with ace-like stuff, we may have to look at that down the road. 

If we're looking purely at early returns then I'd say I'm least bullish on Wilson.   Supposedly an advanced college hitter but didn't look that way.  

[Chuck]

28 minutes ago, Baghdad Strad said:

When did we have a garbage draft with Eppler?  Once again it’s fine to criticize but there’s zero reason to exaggerate failure even you’re trying to have an actual discussion.  

2016 may go down as a garbage draft if Marsh and Thaiss don't pan out, Chris Rodriguez cannot stay healthy and Jose Rojas is a 4-A guy only. 

Besides Brandon Marsh who looks like he may be a solid regular in the big leagues, Matt Thaiss, Jose Rojas and Chris Rodriguez will determine if this was an OK draft or garbage draft. 

 

[Stradling]

4 minutes ago, Chuckster70 said:

2016 may go down as a garbage draft if Marsh and Thaiss don't pan out, Chris Rodriguez cannot stay healthy and Jose Rojas is a 4-A guy only. 

Besides Brandon Marsh who looks like he may be a solid regular in the big leagues, Matt Thaiss, Jose Rojas and Chris Rodriguez will determine if this was an OK draft or garbage draft. 

 

I guess we have different definitions of garbage.  We have one guy who is in the major leagues from that draft and another guy who is probably going to be a top 100 prospect, who my understanding is 2-3 years younger than the competition he has faced and still had a very good season. Thaiss hasn’t been garbage up here in his first stint.  His OBP is about 100 points higher than his average.  He has 6 home runs in 122 at bats and he hasn’t been awful defensively.  Not to mention what @Dochalo or @Inside Pitch have both said, which is he had very little time to prepare for the 2016 draft and didn’t even have his scouting team in place yet.  I truly believe that your opinion of this draft and your opinion of all of his drafts are directly related to the current product on the field.  

[Stradling]

1 minute ago, RBM said:

The fact is the six drafts after Trout was selected in 2009 were bad. 2010 (Except Calhoun with the 268th pick in the 8th round), 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014 and 2015 (Except Fletcher with the 195th pick in the 5th round). There were a few trades that effected the balance but a lot of really bad drafts.

And the four drafts before we selected Trout in 2009 were terrible - 2005 ,2006 ,2007 and 2008 were all really bad.

So the reality is we strike gold and select the GOAT in Mike Trout in 2009 but our infrastructure is so bad at the time that the four years prior and the six years after he is selected the team provides him with very little help through the draft. And the draft/international pool is how most winning teams are built.

This is the reality of what Billy Eppler walked into on October 4, 2015.

 

Yep.  

[Angel Oracle]

47 minutes ago, Dochalo said:

If we're looking purely at early returns then I'd say I'm least bullish on Wilson.   Supposedly an advanced college hitter but didn't look that way.  

Isn't the ACC pretty much on par with the rookie Pioneer League?    Yet, Wilson seemingly regressed in his stats at Orem, vs his NCSU stats even in his freshman year.