You mean it's not just our pen that is on fire?

[Biergott]

Very interesting read about the state of bullpens across MLB.  Sorry if this was already posted.

Maybe we can cycle back to the days where starters went more than 4-5 innings?

https://www.si.com/mlb/2019/06/24/nationals-orioles-bullpen-record-home-runs

 

[floplag]

You have a limited number of guys trying to meet all the situations the analytics tell you to, its just not possible.  Too much specialization, too much over thinking it, too much reliance on analytics. 

[Amazing Larry]

10 minutes ago, floplag said:

You have a limited number of guys trying to meet all the situations the analytics tell you to, its just not possible.  Too much specialization, too much over thinking it, too much reliance on analytics. 

Sometimes you have to say "f*ck it, let's pitch."

[Stradling]

I totally get everything you said Flop, but when the stats show that a fresh bullpen arm is more successful than the third time through the order for most pitchers, why wouldn’t you go to that pen arm in a relatively close game?  It’s a damned if you do damned if you don’t situation.  That being said Skaggs has earned a few more batters (unless you pinch hit for him).  Canning I am starting to trust deeper into games.  The solution is to score a few more runs a week and that will allow the starts to get you a few more outs.  

[floplag]

18 minutes ago, Stradling said:

I totally get everything you said Flop, but when the stats show that a fresh bullpen arm is more successful than the third time through the order for most pitchers, why wouldn’t you go to that pen arm in a relatively close game?  It’s a damned if you do damned if you don’t situation.  That being said Skaggs has earned a few more batters (unless you pinch hit for him).  Canning I am starting to trust deeper into games.  The solution is to score a few more runs a week and that will allow the starts to get you a few more outs.  

All true, but fatigue, wear and tear, the human element... all things that the numbers dont take into account but are absolutely part of the game... to me its wear the numbers, or more specifically the over reliance on them, is not telling the story.  You or i could be a big league manager today as long as we follow the script the result is out of our hands. 

[floplag]

24 minutes ago, Lhalo said:

Sometimes you have to say "f*ck it, let's pitch."

I have huge respect for what Skaggs did a couple starts ago when he got on Ausmus... the whole "This is my game why is anyone warming up" thing... even if he messed up that the attitude i want out there numbers or not.  We need a lot more of that in my view and a lot less follow the script. 
Thats what will drive any possible meteoric rise in the second half. 
Yes some guy need to learn and all that of course thats true... but they also need to learn how to work thru adversity and for lack of a better term man up a little. 

[nate]

31 minutes ago, Stradling said:

I totally get everything you said Flop, but when the stats show that a fresh bullpen arm is more successful than the third time through the order for most pitchers, why wouldn’t you go to that pen arm in a relatively close game?  It’s a damned if you do damned if you don’t situation.  That being said Skaggs has earned a few more batters (unless you pinch hit for him).  Canning I am starting to trust deeper into games.  The solution is to score a few more runs a week and that will allow the starts to get you a few more outs.  

Because the bullpen arms are the nugget on the top of the shit sundae.

[Stradling]

1 minute ago, nate said:

Because the bullpen arms are the nugget on the top of the shit sundae.

Our bullpen hasn’t been the problem this year.  Noe, Cam, Buttrey and Robles have all been good this year.  Those are the guys they have been going to with a lead.  

[Stradling]

15 minutes ago, floplag said:

All true, but fatigue, wear and tear, the human element... all things that the numbers dont take into account but are absolutely part of the game... to me its wear the numbers, or more specifically the over reliance on them, is not telling the story.  You or i could be a big league manager today as long as we follow the script the result is out of our hands. 

No, I couldn’t be major league manager.  I mean unless you know how to run that clubhouse, run spring training, be able to tell when a guy needs a breather or a day off.  I don’t know about you, but I know I can’t break down a major league swing.  I can’t tell when a guy opens up too early on a pitch.  If it is pointed out to me I can see it or if it is in slow motion I can see it.  Other guys on here see a lot of things I don’t see.  You may be able to do those things better than me, I have no idea, but I know I can’t manage a MLB team to any level of success.  

[Mark68]

2 minutes ago, Stradling said:

Our bullpen hasn’t been the problem this year.  Noe, Cam, Buttrey and Robles have all been good this year.  Those are the guys they have been going to with a lead.  

Except when Cam has been the "opener".

I've been pretty open to the new metrics and the statheads, but for the life of me, I don't really understand how employing an "opener" really helps. If a pitcher can't get through a lineup more than twice, then just let him start and try to go through the lineup twice and THEN go with Cam or Buttrey (but please, Assmunch, DON'T overwork him) or whomever is the hot hand...

[nate]

4 minutes ago, Stradling said:

Our bullpen hasn’t been the problem this year.  Noe, Cam, Buttrey and Robles have all been good this year.  Those are the guys they have been going to with a lead.  

the problem with that is that they are already being used too much.  Noe fell apart last season because of it, I think it will happen again.

[Mark68]

1 minute ago, Stradling said:

No, I couldn’t be major league manager.  I mean unless you know how to run that clubhouse, run spring training, be able to tell when a guy needs a breather or a day off.  I don’t know about you, but I know I can’t break down a major league swing.  I can’t tell when a guy opens up too early on a pitch.  If it is pointed out to me I can see it or if it is in slow motion I can see it.  Other guys on here see a lot of things I don’t see.  You may be able to do those things better than me, I have no idea, but I know I can’t manage a MLB team to any level of success.  

That's what hitting coaches are for.

[Stradling]

1 minute ago, Mark68 said:

Except when Cam has been the "opener".

I've been pretty open to the new metrics and the statheads, but for the life of me, I don't really understand how employing an "opener" really helps. If a pitcher can't get through a lineup more than twice, then just let him start and try to go through the lineup twice and THEN go with Cam or Buttrey (but please, Assmunch, DON'T overwork him) or whomever is the hot hand...

@Dochalo and @Jeff Fletcher do a really good job of explaining it.  Here is my below average explanation of it.  If Cam gets through the first inning and faces 3-4 guys.  Now you bring in Pena.  He won’t have to face the best hitters, 2,3,4 hitters a third time through the line up until the 6th or 7th inning.  At that point you have much more information (the score later in the game) on whether or not to allow him to pitch to those guys a 3rd time through.  

[Stradling]

3 minutes ago, Mark68 said:

That's what hitting coaches are for.

I understand that, but I also understand you need to have a little bit more of a base knowledge than I possess.  

[ScottT]

The only thing that's going to change this is roster rules.  I'm in favor of a stricter option process. I'm not in favor of telling teams how many pitchers they can have, but that's coming.

[m0nkey]

Cam as an opener:

7IP 1.000 WHIP 8Ks 2 ER

[Angel Oracle]

I am concerned about one thing.    Even though it's nice to see Ausmus willing to make a change within a half inning, even with the innings counts not being any higher for individuals than in the past, they are making more pitches to get ready due to making more appearances.    That could be an issue for the key guys by say August.

The starters HAVE to continue to get up to one inning deeper into games.    

[floplag]

21 minutes ago, Stradling said:

No, I couldn’t be major league manager.  I mean unless you know how to run that clubhouse, run spring training, be able to tell when a guy needs a breather or a day off.  I don’t know about you, but I know I can’t break down a major league swing.  I can’t tell when a guy opens up too early on a pitch.  If it is pointed out to me I can see it or if it is in slow motion I can see it.  Other guys on here see a lot of things I don’t see.  You may be able to do those things better than me, I have no idea, but I know I can’t manage a MLB team to any level of success.  

You take me to literally my friend, i meant only in regard to the idea of the lineups and match ups and such where the analytics have become more important than anything else. 

[Jeff Fletcher]

27 minutes ago, Stradling said:

@Dochalo and @Jeff Fletcher do a really good job of explaining it.  Here is my below average explanation of it.  If Cam gets through the first inning and faces 3-4 guys.  Now you bring in Pena.  He won’t have to face the best hitters, 2,3,4 hitters a third time through the line up until the 6th or 7th inning.  At that point you have much more information (the score later in the game) on whether or not to allow him to pitch to those guys a 3rd time through.  

Once again, the point of the opener is to get more out of “rotation” guy. 

You don’t want him facing the top of the order a 3rd time.

If he starts his game with the lead off hitter, he’s got 18 batters before seeing him a 3rd time. If he starts his game with the No 4 hitter, he’s got 24 hitters before seeing the lead off man a 3rd time.

Thats a whole extra inning, which actually means using one less reliever. 

That’s really all it is. 

The problem, however, comes if you don’t have enough good relievers where you still have pitchers you trust with a lead, even after using the opener. I think Ausmus got caught in that with one of the Dodgers games that Bedrosian started. He didn’t want to use anyone else but Buttrey and Robles and had to stretch them both to their limits to get the two of them through 3 innings. I think now he’s come to the realization that he should find a different opener and save Bedrosian for protecting leads. Now you’re seeing García and Ramírez do it.

It’s risky either way. What they really need is another good reliever. Getting JC and Middleton back would help. 

I actually think we may see Peña as the opener for JC at some point. 

[Inside Pitch]

33 minutes ago, ScottT said:

The only thing that's going to change this is roster rules.  I'm in favor of a stricter option process. I'm not in favor of telling teams how many pitchers they can have, but that's coming.

It's likely it goes the other way -- with rosters expanding next year you may see less roster gaming but, you'll likely see more teams carrying an extra RP or SP at all times.   Personally, I think teams may end up employing tandem starters as a way to game any roster limits on RP.   If you have four 5 innings pitchers who take turns opening in tandem are they going to be considered a SP or a RP -- how can they control that?

[eaterfan]

There's a really good discussion of this article on the effectively wild podcast today.

Basically they echo my thoughts.

1. The opener is probably responsible for some of the difference.

2. Bullpens are throwing more innings.

3. Teams are being more careful with their best relievers and not increasing their workload.

4. Points 2-3 mean an increase in innings for bottom of the barrel relievers because teams haven't been developing bullpen arms as quickly as they've needed them.

5. Starters are throwing more like relievers because they know they aren't expected to pitch as long.

6. The worst starters are losing their innings to the pen so only the good starters are contributing to their sample.

I think the Angels have realized what the issues are and have a draft strategy to capitalize on these changes. Finding guys who can pitch well for 200 innings is incredibly tough and probably getting tougher. They are trying to find as many guys who can throw 2-4 innings a few times a week. Just a ton of hard throwing college guys who they hope to develope. Have a ton of them so the team can shuffle them between the bigs and the minors.

[Angel Oracle]

Three true outcomes is at the root of all of this.   Making the game more boring and longer

[eaterfan]

16 minutes ago, Angel Oracle said:

Three true outcomes is at the root of all of this.   Making the game more boring and longer

Players are bigger and faster. I think that's really the root of it. Make every team move the fences back 10 feet. Reduce the risk if HRs and pitchers can challenge hitters more. More singles fall in front of fielders or go over their heads.

[Angel Oracle]

6 minutes ago, eaterfan said:

Players are bigger and faster. I think that's really the root of it. Make every team move the fences back 10 feet. Reduce the risk if HRs and pitchers can challenge hitters more. More singles fall in front of fielders or go over their heads.

Coors Canaveral is a good test of that.   Their dimensions allow the players to pile up the doubles and triples, not to mention the bloop hits in front of OFers.

[Docwaukee]

3 hours ago, Biergott said:

Very interesting read about the state of bullpens across MLB.  Sorry if this was already posted.

Maybe we can cycle back to the days where starters went more than 4-5 innings?

https://www.si.com/mlb/2019/06/24/nationals-orioles-bullpen-record-home-runs

 

a lot of team's worst starter is now a reliever who pitches 4-5 innings.  

I would like to see more multi-inning relievers which is where I think the Angels are going.