2018 Hot Stove League

[Pancake Bear]

33 minutes ago, Halodays said:

At the very least Spangenberg  would be a better hitting utility guy  than Cowart. He hits righties at a pretty good clip and could fill in if the young guys are struggling.

The only benefit he provides, IMO, is salary. If we’re that determined to save money, I’d go all in on the other three. I wouldn’t bring in waiver wire bait to clog the roster. 

[Halodays]

21 minutes ago, Sean-Regan said:

The only benefit he provides, IMO, is salary. If we’re that determined to save money, I’d go all in on the other three. I wouldn’t bring in waiver wire bait to clog the roster. 

Just curious, who are your starters around the infield?

[Broad Street]

Cozart, Simmons, Fletcher, Pujols

[Pancake Bear]

1 hour ago, Halodays said:

Just curious, who are your starters around the infield?

Ask me again after ST. 

[Broad Street]

I think Fletcher earned the starting job going into Spring Training.

[totdprods]

Pipe dream of the day, reading about the Cardinals interest in Goldschmidt and Greinke, and thinking about the glut of players on both Arizona and St. Louis...

...wouldn’t it be something if Albert had decided his knees are done, this would be his final year, and he waived his no-trade to return to St. Louis for a bench role and last hurrah, and the Angels, Diamondbacks, and Cardinals worked out some insane 3-way deal to balance out the money and spare parts? Cards getting Albert and Goldschmidt and prospects, Angels taking on Greinke and hell, I don’t know, some combo of names like Fowler, Gyorko, Ray, Jose Martinez, Lamb, Arizona getting salary relief and Calhoun, maybe Shoemaker or Parker, etc. 

 Fun to dream.

[Pancake Bear]

33 minutes ago, Kody Mac said:

I think Fletcher earned the starting job going into Spring Training.

Between Fletcher and Cozart (assuming both are still around come Opening Day), I would imagine at least 2 of 3 spots (2B, 3B, Utility IF) will be taken up. I think Fletcher is almost certain to be at least the backup infielder, regardless of how he does in Spring. 

[Tank]

13 hours ago, eligrba said:

Do you trust the Angels medical staff?

Legit question.

The halos medical staff is not responsible for all of the TJ injuries. The other thread about injuries spells out pretty well how this is an issue league wide. No reason to think they'll make things worse.

if you haven't read it yet, please read the Injuries thread.

[eligrba]

10 hours ago, Tank said:

The halos medical staff is not responsible for all of the TJ injuries. The other thread about injuries spells out pretty well how this is an issue league wide. No reason to think they'll make things worse.

if you haven't read it yet, please read the Injuries thread.

I agree.  My question regarded whether the medical evaluation process conducted by the Angels medical staff can be trusted.

Doctors are not foreseers and can only make predictions based on empirical data.   I would ask for an outside second opinion and not rely exclusively on the Angel's medical staff for evaluating any player's susceptibility to future injuries.

 

[totdprods]

“Paul Hoynes of cleveland.com reports the Indians likely could have accepted a Sheffield-fronted package for any of Corey Kluber, Carlos Carrasco and Trevor Bauer, whom they’ve discussed with the Yankees. In the end, however, the two sides couldn’t match up, as Hoynes writes that the Mariners placed a higher value on Sheffield than the Indians did.”

If Justus Sheffield, who’s been dinged as likely a mid-rotation arm who may even fall to the bullpen, is enough to lead a package for any of those three SPs, then not only do I imagine Eppler will be in talks with Cleveland, I fully expect him to land one of them. 

[UndertheHalo]

3 minutes ago, totdprods said:

“Paul Hoynes of cleveland.com reports the Indians likely could have accepted a Sheffield-fronted package for any of Corey Kluber, Carlos Carrasco and Trevor Bauer, whom they’ve discussed with the Yankees. In the end, however, the two sides couldn’t match up, as Hoynes writes that the Mariners placed a higher value on Sheffield than the Indians did.”

If Justus Sheffield, who’s been dinged as likely a mid-rotation arm who may even fall to the bullpen, is enough to lead a package for any of those three SPs, then not only do I imagine Eppler will be in talks with Cleveland, I fully expect him to land one of them. 

Whatever Sheffield’s perceived ceiling may be, he was just pretty close to the most highly regarded pitching prospect in baseball.  If the Indians didn’t think much of him what are they going to think our guys are worth ?

i happen to think Canning is underrated by the evaluators.  Especially with the improved velocity he showed this year.  But it does make you wonder whether trading for one of these front line pitchers makes sense if it’s going to cost us Canning + multiple other prospects.  I’m more open to trading pitchers for pitchers but generally I think you’re in dangerous territory trading any significant asset for pitchers.  Particularly top of the order types. 

[totdprods]

7 minutes ago, UndertheHalo said:

Whatever Sheffield’s perceived ceiling may be, he was just pretty close to the most highly regarded pitching prospect in baseball.  If the Indians didn’t think much of him what are they going to think our guys are worth ?

i happen to think Canning is underrated by the evaluators.  Especially with the improved velocity he showed this year.  But it does make you wonder whether trading for one of these front line pitchers makes sense if it’s going to cost us Canning + multiple other prospects.  I’m more open to trading pitchers for pitchers but generally I think you’re in dangerous territory trading any significant asset for pitchers.  Particularly top of the order types. 

Yet as soon as he was dealt, most were surprised that he was just about the only real prospect included in the deal, and many felt the Mariners didn’t quiet get enough, and that as regarded as Sheffield was, he alone wasn’t a huge return.

Thats where the Angels have some ability to make something work. They could afford to lose one of Ward/Thaiss/Marsh. They can afford to lose one of Fletcher/Rengifo/Jones. They can afford one of Suarez/Sandoval/Canning/Barria if the return is a frontline pitcher with some control. Not saying it would require one of each, because there are still several groupings of lower-level prospects that are redundant enough that you could deal one... Rodriguez/Yan/Soriano, Knowles/Deveaux/Adams. Lund/Hunter/Rojas/Rivas/Hermosillo, Jackson/Maitan/Soto. Numerous relief options.

Mostly, the point is, it doesn’t have to start with Adell, and if Canning really is the second-best prospect, I don’t think it needs to start with him either. Most of our Top 10 is bordering on Top 100 talent at this point. We have the depth to land a pitcher.

[UndertheHalo]

42 minutes ago, totdprods said:

Yet as soon as he was dealt, most were surprised that he was just about the only real prospect included in the deal, and many felt the Mariners didn’t quiet get enough, and that as regarded as Sheffield was, he alone wasn’t a huge return.

Thats where the Angels have some ability to make something work. They could afford to lose one of Ward/Thaiss/Marsh. They can afford to lose one of Fletcher/Rengifo/Jones. They can afford one of Suarez/Sandoval/Canning/Barria if the return is a frontline pitcher with some control. Not saying it would require one of each, because there are still several groupings of lower-level prospects that are redundant enough that you could deal one... Rodriguez/Yan/Soriano, Knowles/Deveaux/Adams. Lund/Hunter/Rojas/Rivas/Hermosillo, Jackson/Maitan/Soto. Numerous relief options.

Mostly, the point is, it doesn’t have to start with Adell, and if Canning really is the second-best prospect, I don’t think it needs to start with him either. Most of our Top 10 is bordering on Top 100 talent at this point. We have the depth to land a pitcher.

Ya we’ll see.  I just have my doubts that we can get one of these guys without trading our premium guys.  Obviously it would be great to get one of them. 

[Inside Pitch]

1 hour ago, totdprods said:

“Paul Hoynes of cleveland.com reports the Indians likely could have accepted a Sheffield-fronted package for any of Corey Kluber, Carlos Carrasco and Trevor Bauer, whom they’ve discussed with the Yankees. In the end, however, the two sides couldn’t match up, as Hoynes writes that the Mariners placed a higher value on Sheffield than the Indians did.”

If Justus Sheffield, who’s been dinged as likely a mid-rotation arm who may even fall to the bullpen, is enough to lead a package for any of those three SPs, then not only do I imagine Eppler will be in talks with Cleveland, I fully expect him to land one of them. 

Well, to be fair...the snippet pretty clearly states he was good enough to lead but not land any of those guys... Meaning they wanted more quality prospects than the Yankees were willing to give.   A 50, and two 40s wasn't enough.  Cleveland doesn't appear to be as enthralled with high floor low ceiling types as Jerry Dipoto is.

[Blarg]

Cleveland wins divisions not trade quotas. 

[ettin]

7 minutes ago, Blarg said:

Cleveland wins divisions not trade quotas. 

Yes, they have been a model organization for the last several years in my opinion

[Tank]

3 hours ago, eligrba said:

I agree.  My question regarded whether the medical evaluation process conducted by the Angels medical staff can be trusted.

Doctors are not foreseers and can only make predictions based on empirical data.   I would ask for an outside second opinion and not rely exclusively on the Angel's medical staff for evaluating any player's susceptibility to future injuries.

 

Fair enough.

[UndertheHalo]

To be fair, Cleveland plays in an absolute trash bin of a division.  They’d be competitive in any division but they haven’t really been pushed in the central for 3 years or so.  It’s going to continue being that way for another year or two probably.  They have home grown a really nice team though , for sure. 

It'll be interesting to see when they decide to pull the plug and start over.  Because that’s what Cleavland does.  They aren’t going to sign most of their better players.  I think it’ll be a miracle if they sign Lindor.  Who, in a couple of years will be another guy that’s going to get 30+ million and a long contract.  Anyway, they have a lot of good players that are probably going to be traded.   Sooner then later. 

[totdprods]

25 minutes ago, UndertheHalo said:

To be fair, Cleveland plays in an absolute trash bin of a division.  They’d be competitive in any division but they haven’t really been pushed in the central for 3 years or so.  It’s going to continue being that way for another year or two probably.  They have home grown a really nice team though , for sure. 

It'll be interesting to see when they decide to pull the plug and start over.  Because that’s what Cleavland does.  They aren’t going to sign most of their better players.  I think it’ll be a miracle if they sign Lindor.  Who, in a couple of years will be another guy that’s going to get 30+ million and a long contract.  Anyway, they have a lot of good players that are probably going to be traded.   Sooner then later. 

Cleveland has a ton of good young SP prospects too...that may work in the Angels favor, as we're a little deep on hitting prospects that are near MLB ready.

I'd have to think the Angels could offer Marsh, Jones, and some low-level names and have a pretty good shot at landing any of Kluber, Carrasco, or Bauer, and it would not kill the Angels farm, while immediately helping the rotation significantly this year and next.

[Inside Pitch]

27 minutes ago, UndertheHalo said:

To be fair, Cleveland plays in an absolute trash bin of a division.  They’d be competitive in any division but they haven’t really been pushed in the central for 3 years or so.  It’s going to continue being that way for another year or two probably.  They have home grown a really nice team though , for sure. 

It'll be interesting to see when they decide to pull the plug and start over.  Because that’s what Cleavland does.  They aren’t going to sign most of their better players.  I think it’ll be a miracle if they sign Lindor.  Who, in a couple of years will be another guy that’s going to get 30+ million and a long contract.  Anyway, they have a lot of good players that are probably going to be traded.   Sooner then later. 

The Twins were looking like a team in the rise and a potential threat for a bit then the bottoms fell out of their big prospects. Sano's off field BS and injuries seem to have taken a toll on him and Buxton is looking more and more like a speedy no OBP bust by the day.   Polanco had a nice season nd Berrios is for real but they seem to have no choice but to wait on  their next wave of prospects... Lewis, Gordon, Kirriloff.  It wouldn't surprise me if the Tigers leapfrog them back into contention.

Edited November 25, 2018 by Inside Pitch

[UndertheHalo]

4 minutes ago, Inside Pitch said:

The Twins were looking like a team in the rise and a potential threat for a bit then the bottoms fell out of their big prospects. Sano's off field BS and injuries seem to have taken a toll on him and Buxton is looking more and more like a speedy no OBP bust by the day.   Polanco had a nice season nd Berrios is for real but they seem to have no choice but to wait on  their next wave of prospects... Lewis, Gordon, Kirriloff.  It wouldn't surprise me if the Tigers leapfrog them back into contention.

Ya the Twins seemed to be on the cusp.  They have talent so we’ll see, you noted their better prospects and younger players.  Buxton seems like a bust and he was at the center of most of the more positive hopes for the team in the near term.  I think Dozier in the middle of the line up was huge for them, so his fall off hurt a lot.  Among the other issues.  Sano etc.  Tigers have stocked up pretty quick so I wouldn’t be surprised if they jumped ahead like you said.  The whitesox also are pretty loaded in terms of prospects and should start turning a corner here soon.  

[ettin]

53 minutes ago, UndertheHalo said:

To be fair, Cleveland plays in an absolute trash bin of a division.  They’d be competitive in any division but they haven’t really been pushed in the central for 3 years or so.  It’s going to continue being that way for another year or two probably.  They have home grown a really nice team though , for sure. 

It'll be interesting to see when they decide to pull the plug and start over.  Because that’s what Cleavland does.  They aren’t going to sign most of their better players.  I think it’ll be a miracle if they sign Lindor.  Who, in a couple of years will be another guy that’s going to get 30+ million and a long contract.  Anyway, they have a lot of good players that are probably going to be traded.   Sooner then later. 

See that is where I will respectfully disagree. They have expertly identified long-term extension candidates and signed them, including Kluber, Carrasco, and Ramirez. They wanted to extend Bauer and Lindor but those have not materialized and may not. That was my point regarding them being an expertly run organization. They identify young talent very well and know when to lock them up early so that they can obtain years of control at a price-controlled cost which gives them fidelity on their payroll and allows them to manager their 40-man roster with more ease.

The Angels would be served well doing something similar as they did with Trout (the obvious choice). Ohtani should be a consideration after this season if he appears to be on track back to the mound. Simmons, Skaggs, Heaney, and possibly Adell should be considerations moving forward too.

I don't think the Indians plan to start over at all, anytime soon. Moving someone like Kluber will relieve payroll and bring back additional talent which will sustain them in future years. If they are able to keep extending good players and flipping them at the right moments they can go on like this for a long, long time.

[UndertheHalo]

7 minutes ago, ettin said:

See that is where I will respectfully disagree. They have expertly identified long-term extension candidates and signed them, including Kluber, Carrasco, and Ramirez. They wanted to extend Bauer and Lindor but those have not materialized and may not. That was my point regarding them being an expertly run organization. They identify young talent very well and know when to lock them up early so that they can obtain years of control at a price-controlled cost which gives them fidelity on their payroll and allows them to manager their 40-man roster with more ease.

The Angels would be served well doing something similar as they did with Trout (the obvious choice). Ohtani should be a consideration after this season if he appears to be on track back to the mound. Simmons, Skaggs, Heaney, and possibly Adell should be considerations moving forward too.

I don't think the Indians plan to start over at all, anytime soon. Moving someone like Kluber will relieve payroll and bring back additional talent which will sustain them in future years. If they are able to keep extending good players and flipping them at the right moments they can go on like this for a long, long time.

Ya maybe you’re right.  I was under the impression that a bunch of their guys were going to be coming up for contracts at once tho.  They aren’t going to be able to replace 3 or 4 guys at once.  I could be entirely wrong about their situation tho. 

Edited November 25, 2018 by UndertheHalo

[ettin]

13 minutes ago, UndertheHalo said:

Ya maybe you’re right.  I was under the impression that a bunch of their guys were going to be coming up for contracts at once tho.  They aren’t going to be able to replace 3 or 4 guys at once.  I could be entirely wrong about their situation tho. 

Don't get me wrong Under, one wrong move for them or one bad extension could have a much larger impact for them than it would a team like the Angels or the Yankees for example. It is a much finer balancing act but it is one I think they have been doing really well for the last five years or so. Larger payroll teams can get away with long-term extensions a bit easier than small market ones and larger payroll teams can also simply avoid issuing extensions to keep roster flexibility by not tying up money in a multi-year contract.

In my opinion if you have identified a player that is worthy of a long-term contract and will sign at a price the team feels is manageable and has surplus value, you should roll the dice if you have nothing in the pipeline you are overly excited about. This is why the Trout extension was so obvious. It is also the reason that a 12 year/$500M extension is so obvious, it has tremendous surplus value attached to it (yes I know many of you disagree but the economics of it point to easy long-term value). If Bryce Harper or Manny Machado, both approximately 5 WAR players get paid $400M what is a 9 WAR player worth? By the math that is about $720M, so a $500M contract is a team friendly contract. How did I get to a Mike Trout extension by starting at the Indians being a well managed organization? Yikes!

[UndertheHalo]

1 hour ago, ettin said:

Don't get me wrong Under, one wrong move for them or one bad extension could have a much larger impact for them than it would a team like the Angels or the Yankees for example. It is a much finer balancing act but it is one I think they have been doing really well for the last five years or so. Larger payroll teams can get away with long-term extensions a bit easier than small market ones and larger payroll teams can also simply avoid issuing extensions to keep roster flexibility by not tying up money in a multi-year contract.

In my opinion if you have identified a player that is worthy of a long-term contract and will sign at a price the team feels is manageable and has surplus value, you should roll the dice if you have nothing in the pipeline you are overly excited about. This is why the Trout extension was so obvious. It is also the reason that a 12 year/$500M extension is so obvious, it has tremendous surplus value attached to it (yes I know many of you disagree but the economics of it point to easy long-term value). If Bryce Harper or Manny Machado, both approximately 5 WAR players get paid $400M what is a 9 WAR player worth? By the math that is about $720M, so a $500M contract is a team friendly contract. How did I get to a Mike Trout extension by starting at the Indians being a well managed organization? Yikes!

I agree that they’ve done a good job signing some of their guys but I’m pretty confident a guy like Lindor will reach FA and I doubt that the Tribe will retain him . 

As far as Trout I absolutely agree completely.  Trout is immensely valuable to the Angels.  They need to do whatever it takes to lock him up.  He’s our Stan Musial.  He can’t be allowed to walk.