MLBTR Offseason Outlook

[floplag]

2 hours ago, Stradling said:

The cool kids are echoing what Eppler and Arte have said is the priority this off season.  I want something that isn’t possible, stability in the rotation, a lead off hitter, followed by quality interchangeable parts on offense.

well that would be true if it wasnt happening long before any public comments were made but since thats not the chronology... 

[Second Base]

6 minutes ago, floplag said:

well that would be true if it wasnt happening long before any public comments were made but since thats not the chronology... 

There does tend to be a top-down sort of belief here.  Basically whatever Fletcher writes, or Eppler says, that's what AW fans will support, because we'd all like to think that they know what they're doing.  And they do, they most definitely do.  But it doesn't stop a few of us from disagreeing with much of it.  

There are very few instances where AW fans are universally opposed to something their GM has done.  Joe Blanton comes immediately to mind. 

[floplag]

23 minutes ago, Scotty@AW said:

There does tend to be a top-down sort of belief here.  Basically whatever Fletcher writes, or Eppler says, that's what AW fans will support, because we'd all like to think that they know what they're doing.  And they do, they most definitely do.  But it doesn't stop a few of us from disagreeing with much of it.  

There are very few instances where AW fans are universally opposed to something their GM has done.  Joe Blanton comes immediately to mind. 

Im not going that far its just that as people disagree with Fletcher as much as anyone else. 
I tend to be outside the typical norms in my views on the game and those who follow the popular views tend to get more support and free reign to be less cordial.

[Angel Oracle]

31 minutes ago, Scotty@AW said:

There does tend to be a top-down sort of belief here.  Basically whatever Fletcher writes, or Eppler says, that's what AW fans will support, because we'd all like to think that they know what they're doing.  And they do, they most definitely do.  But it doesn't stop a few of us from disagreeing with much of it.  

There are very few instances where AW fans are universally opposed to something their GM has done.  Joe Blanton comes immediately to mind. 

We want to believe REAL MLB GM's.   Not sure that Dipoto qualifies as that

[Hubs]

22 hours ago, DCAngelsFan said:

The "future" is a bit hard to project for both  - but I have a lot of sympathy for what you're saying  -  even if we'd had some "pitching stability",  even if we got to the playoffs, we have terrible lineup depth 1-9, and we'd be bounced quickly.

I think the superlative stats of Mike and Shohei hide to a certain extent how bad most of the rest of the lineup was (Upton and Simmons notwithstanding.)

But I'm not seeing a whole lot of position players in the FA market that I'd want - McCutchen for RF would be nice - but that leaves 3B, 2B, and C to fill.   (Jones is what, 2020?)  

 

 

Yeah, I agree with Scotty and DC.

Offense is definitely the bigger problem. The staff needs help for stability, but not really for performance. The top 8 SP gave up 338 Earned Runs in 825 1/3 IP for a 3.69 ERA. The top 12 RP gave up 202 Earned Runs in 557 2/3 IP for a 3.26 ERA.  The other 15 pitchers gave up 122 Earned Runs in 54 1/3 IP for a 20.08 ERA.

If you add one starter to replace what Ohtani and Richards gave you, and another starter or reliever to get a little more help, the team may have had a 3.51 ERA as a staff, with a little more health and a little more luck, and a little more depth. That would've been good for 2nd in the AL (instead of 8th), AND 3rd in MLB behind Houston and the Dodgers.

Offensively the Angels ranked 15th (8th in AL) in runs scored in MLB, 20th (11th) in Avergae and 20th (10th) in OBP.

Improvement can be expected from DH, and maybe from 2B and C, but not significant.

Adding a starter like Gray, then one like Eovaldi is a nice add, but it won't improve the offense. Adding guys like McCutchen or Gonzalez and Realmuto or Ramos will.

Time to blow the budget.

[Rally Gorilla]

On 10/24/2018 at 11:05 AM, Angel Oracle said:

Cozart needs to step up in 2019, case closed.  

I've been looking at Cozart's career numbers.   He's averaged over +2 WAR over his career  (even including 2018) and he had a whopping +5 in 2017.    I wouldn't bet the farm on it, but I think he's got a real chance to bounce back from the torn labrum and  be a solid contributor in 2019.     

[Second Base]

5 minutes ago, Hubs said:

Yeah, I agree with Scotty and DC.

Offense is definitely the bigger problem. The staff needs help for stability, but not really for performance. The top 8 SP gave up 338 Earned Runs in 825 1/3 IP for a 3.69 ERA. The top 12 RP gave up 202 Earned Runs in 557 2/3 IP for a 3.26 ERA.  The other 15 pitchers gave up 122 Earned Runs in 54 1/3 IP for a 20.08 ERA.

If you add one starter to replace what Ohtani and Richards gave you, and another starter or reliever to get a little more help, the team may have had a 3.51 ERA as a staff, with a little more health and a little more luck, and a little more depth. That would've been good for 2nd in the AL (instead of 8th), AND 3rd in MLB behind Houston and the Dodgers.

Offensively the Angels ranked 15th (8th in AL) in runs scored in MLB, 20th (11th) in Avergae and 20th (10th) in OBP.

Improvement can be expected from DH, and maybe from 2B and C, but not significant.

Adding a starter like Gray, then one like Eovaldi is a nice add, but it won't improve the offense. Adding guys like McCutchen or Gonzalez and Realmuto or Ramos will.

Time to blow the budget.

I agree with everything you said until the last two lines I think.  Keep the prospects, because their the sustainability of the organization, and don't blow the budget, not unless it means spending more on Trout.  Otherwise keep the budget right where it's at.  Those prospects will help cut costs in the future.  For example, after Albert retires, not only do we save 25 million, we also get better production at 1B.  Or after Kole Calhoun leaves, we'll get better production from RF and save 10 million. Or now that Kinsler is gone, we save 11 million and will hopefully get better production within the next year or two. 

Prospects are what's going to allow this team to spend money on Trout, stay within budget and win, all at the same time. 

[Hubs]

26 minutes ago, Second Base said:

I agree with everything you said until the last two lines I think.  Keep the prospects, because their the sustainability of the organization, and don't blow the budget, not unless it means spending more on Trout.  Otherwise keep the budget right where it's at.  Those prospects will help cut costs in the future.  For example, after Albert retires, not only do we save 25 million, we also get better production at 1B.  Or after Kole Calhoun leaves, we'll get better production from RF and save 10 million. Or now that Kinsler is gone, we save 11 million and will hopefully get better production within the next year or two. 

Prospects are what's going to allow this team to spend money on Trout, stay within budget and win, all at the same time. 

Would you trade Marsh/Adams, Thaiss/Maitan, and Suarez for Realmuto? And Hermosillo and Castillo for Gray?

Then sign JA Happ, meaning you have Happ, Gray as additions to the staff, at a cost of Maybe $17M. Realmuto at 6. Then a guy like Andrew McCutchen for 10. You've spent 33, lost five of your top 15 prospects but not only Marsh from your top 3 (and he's arguably 4 behind Adell, Canning, and Jones)

I'd also target Zach Wheeler instead of Happ but again, prospects.

The system takes a hit, but not a huge hit, and you get two (or 3) 28 year old Major League Vets, and then sign one former NL MVP?

 

[ettin]

5 minutes ago, Hubs said:

Would you trade Marsh/Adams, Thaiss/Maitan, and Suarez for Realmuto? And Hermosillo and Castillo for Gray?

Then sign JA Happ, meaning you have Happ, Gray as additions to the staff, at a cost of Maybe $17M. Realmuto at 6. Then a guy like Andrew McCutchen for 10. You've spent 33, lost five of your top 15 prospects but not only Marsh from your top 3 (and he's arguably 4 behind Adell, Canning, and Jones)

I'd also target Zach Wheeler instead of Happ but again, prospects.

The system takes a hit, but not a huge hit, and you get two (or 3) 28 year old Major League Vets, and then sign one former NL MVP?

 

The only problem here is that Miami will not accept this package in all likelihood.

Realmuto can command a top prospect (Adell). Marlins management would have to be really sold on taking a trio of less-proven entities for the value they can extract from J.T..

Remember they wanted Juan Soto or Victor Robles supposedly from the Nationals. These are all high prices to pay.

Not saying it is impossible but it seems very unlikely.

[Blarg]

They didn't get what they wanted which means they over valued the market for Realmuto. Now with one less year of club control the value takes another hit. He is no longer worth a top 10 prospect in baseball. 

[Angel Oracle]

And Realmuto basically sucks at home, sub .700 home OPS since 2015.

[ettin]

44 minutes ago, Blarg said:

They didn't get what they wanted which means they over valued the market for Realmuto. Now with one less year of club control the value takes another hit. He is no longer worth a top 10 prospect in baseball. 

That was at the Trade Deadline and only two months have passed. Yes you are correct that they didn't get any takers but I still don't think that Marsh, Suarez, etc. is likely to get it done because they are not top-level prospects. You could make an argument perhaps that someone like Canning would be the prime piece in a trade but I still think the Marlins will get a pretty good prospect as the centerpiece of a Realmuto trade.

[Turd Ferguson]

I think more than anything we could use a little luck, for once. That along with a couple starters, new pen, and some left handed power and I think we could be back in contention.

[ten ocho recon scout]

4 hours ago, Hubs said:

Yeah, I agree with Scotty and DC.

Offense is definitely the bigger problem. The staff needs help for stability, but not really for performance. The top 8 SP gave up 338 Earned Runs in 825 1/3 IP for a 3.69 ERA. The top 12 RP gave up 202 Earned Runs in 557 2/3 IP for a 3.26 ERA.  The other 15 pitchers gave up 122 Earned Runs in 54 1/3 IP for a 20.08 ERA.

If you add one starter to replace what Ohtani and Richards gave you, and another starter or reliever to get a little more help, the team may have had a 3.51 ERA as a staff, with a little more health and a little more luck, and a little more depth. That would've been good for 2nd in the AL (instead of 8th), AND 3rd in MLB behind Houston and the Dodgers.

Offensively the Angels ranked 15th (8th in AL) in runs scored in MLB, 20th (11th) in Avergae and 20th (10th) in OBP.

Improvement can be expected from DH, and maybe from 2B and C, but not significant.

Adding a starter like Gray, then one like Eovaldi is a nice add, but it won't improve the offense. Adding guys like McCutchen or Gonzalez and Realmuto or Ramos will.

Time to blow the budget.

Im not sure if its "time"....yet. but its close.

Ive defended moreno in the past. The pujols/hamilton/weaver/cj contracts all more or less hurt, and tied up the bulk. Then trout got expensive, upton, etc etc. Then we were in a spot where we needed too many things at once, and one superstud wouldnt make a difference.

Were still somewhat in that position. But arte needs to go above luxury once in awhile. We touted the new tv deal. Cant be afraid to spend it every now and then (not all the time).

I stick with pitching. Mainly because of how bad our luck has been the last few years. Heaney and skaggs are going to be our anchors. Is anyone warm and fuzzy with that? I read people mention shoemaker. I like him....but how long has it been?

Id prefer we fix the pitching staff with the cap space.

Now, if the right people are available, go over the luxury cap and add to the offense. The problem.is there arent a ton of fixes. Machado would be the best fit, if he played 3rd, but he'll be out of the budget. Id love to sign harper, but it doesnt make sense....unless we plan to flip adell.

[ten ocho recon scout]

2 hours ago, Angel Oracle said:

And Realmuto basically sucks at home, sub .700 home OPS since 2015.

If you played in Miami, would you try?

Plus if you hit one out, you have to watch that stupid fish chucky cheese animatronic show in center. Make all the kids cry.

[Stradling]

8 hours ago, floplag said:

well that would be true if it wasnt happening long before any public comments were made but since thats not the chronology... 

Oh ok, so if that isn’t the order in which it happened, then the cool kids have an opinion and the front office agrees with the cool kids.  

[floplag]

11 hours ago, Stradling said:

Oh ok, so if that isn’t the order in which it happened, then the cool kids have an opinion and the front office agrees with the cool kids.  

And that has nothing whatsoever to do with the point but... whatever.  Not going to derail the thread any further with this, its pointless.  

[DCAngelsFan]

 

14 hours ago, ten ocho recon scout said:

Im not sure if its "time"....yet. but its close.

Ive defended moreno in the past. The pujols/hamilton/weaver/cj contracts all more or less hurt, and tied up the bulk. Then trout got expensive, upton, etc etc. Then we were in a spot where we needed too many things at once, and one superstud wouldnt make a difference.

...

Now, if the right people are available, go over the luxury cap and add to the offense. The problem.is there arent a ton of fixes. Machado would be the best fit, if he played 3rd, but he'll be out of the budget. Id love to sign harper, but it doesnt make sense....unless we plan to flip adell.

14

Sorry if everyone knows this - but figure it wouldn't hurt to talk about what exceeding the CBT would actually cost Arte.

As I understand the CBT, there will be three thresholds to be concerned with in the upcoming season:

Base tax threshold:  $206m (goes up by $2m is 2020 and 2021)

First threshold:  $226m (always $20m above base tax)

Second threshold:  $246m (always $40m above base tax)

Penalties are:

 

 

I'd think exceeding the base tax threshold should be relatively manageable, even after 3 years.

Exceeding the "2nd" surcharge costs you 10 draft order positions, e,g, if your first round pick was #20, you'd drop to #30.  

Signing players who've rejected a qualifying offer also costs you an additional $500k in international bonus pool spending - the cost is $1M if you exceed the CBT, $500k if you don't.

Not really useful for this discussion, but I believe dropping under the base rate one year resets you to a "first-time offender."

Per Cots, we're $60m, $100, and $101m under the base tax rate for 2019, 2020, and 2021.

 

 

 

 

[Docwaukee]

56 minutes ago, floplag said:

And that has nothing whatsoever to do with the point but... whatever.  Not going to derail the thread any further with this, its pointless.  

you're the one who brought up the whole 'cool kids' thing.  You have your opinions.  Others may disagree.  If your opinions tend to be against the general consensus of the board then so what.  It makes for a good discussion.  But own it and stop taking it so personally.  If someone disagrees with you, they're not out to get you.  It's not a conspiracy.  There's no pm chain that you're not privy to (unless of course I'm not privy to it either ).  I can personally say that I appreciate most of what you post as it relates to baseball even though I don't always agree.  

If we all felt the same way about everything, this place would be boring as hell.  

[Docwaukee]

18 minutes ago, DCAngelsFan said:

 

Sorry if everyone knows this - but figure it wouldn't hurt to talk about what exceeding the CBT would actually cost Arte.

As I understand the CBT, there will be three thresholds to be concerned with in the upcoming season:

Base tax threshold:  $206m (goes up by $2m is 2020 and 2021)

First threshold:  $226m (always $20m above base tax)

Second threshold:  $246m (always $40m above base tax)

Penalties are:

 

 

I'd think exceeding the base tax threshold should be relatively manageable, even after 3 years.

Exceeding the "2nd" surcharge costs you 10 draft order positions, e,g, if your first round pick was #20, you'd drop to #30.  

Signing players who've rejected a qualifying offer also costs you an additional $500k in international bonus pool spending - the cost is $1M if you exceed the CBT, $500k if you don't.

Not really useful for this discussion, but I believe dropping under the base rate one year resets you to a "first-time offender."

Per Cots, we're $60m, $100, and $101m under the base tax rate.

 

 

 

 

while the tax threshold info is always relevant, it's been made clear that it more about the actual dollars going out as opposed to our CBT number.  We've got about 116.7m is guarantees for 2019.  Another 40m in arb estimates and min player salaries.  Adding 30m in salary puts us around 190-195 which is about max payroll.  Our CBT number is a bit lower than that due to the aavs of Trout, Pujols, Calhoun and Simmons being lower than their actual and Upton's aav being higher than his actual. 

Regardless of the math, he's not going over the CBT threshold.  I could see Arte pushing the envelope in 2021 after Trout and Simmons extensions with Pujols in his final year and whatever additional payroll gets added.  That could be a year where we grab the 'guy' Arte has talked about who completes the team and puts us over the edge.   

[Second Base]

19 hours ago, Hubs said:

Would you trade Marsh/Adams, Thaiss/Maitan, and Suarez for Realmuto? And Hermosillo and Castillo for Gray?

Then sign JA Happ, meaning you have Happ, Gray as additions to the staff, at a cost of Maybe $17M. Realmuto at 6. Then a guy like Andrew McCutchen for 10. You've spent 33, lost five of your top 15 prospects but not only Marsh from your top 3 (and he's arguably 4 behind Adell, Canning, and Jones)

I'd also target Zach Wheeler instead of Happ but again, prospects.

The system takes a hit, but not a huge hit, and you get two (or 3) 28 year old Major League Vets, and then sign one former NL MVP?

 

Marsh, Thaiss and Suarez for two years of Realmuto?  No.  I don't doubt it'll cost that much, especially since the Marlins were asking for Victor Robles from the Nats.  But paying that much for a good, but non-elite player doesn't seem to be like it'd be best for the team. 

Hermosillo and Castillo for Jon Gray?  ABSOLUTELY.  But I don't know why Colorado would accept that deal.  Hermosillo would be redundant with Mike Tauchman and Raimel Tapia there.  And while Castillo is good, his upside clearly doesn't match Jon Gray's.  Gray is their number four starter and the Rockies have practically no pitching depth in the upper minors right now.  

In order to land Jon Gray, you're looking at it costing us a package like Jose Suarez, Matt Thaiss and an additional arm for depth that has a bit of upside like Joe Gatto or Jesus Castillo. 

And if the deal is Suarez, Thaiss and Castillo for Gray......I dunno.  I'd have to really think on that.  On the one hand Gray could be an ace moving to a pitcher friendly setting, but on the other hand, losing Suarez and Castillo when you already have pitching issues sucks, and Thaiss is eventually the guys who will force Albert off 1B once he fully develops, and losing that would put the Angels in a bit of a tough spot. 

[Hubs]

9 minutes ago, Second Base said:

Marsh, Thaiss and Suarez for two years of Realmuto?  No.  I don't doubt it'll cost that much, especially since the Marlins were asking for Victor Robles from the Nats.  But paying that much for a good, but non-elite player doesn't seem to be like it'd be best for the team. 

Hermosillo and Castillo for Jon Gray?  ABSOLUTELY.  But I don't know why Colorado would accept that deal.  Hermosillo would be redundant with Mike Tauchman and Raimel Tapia there.  And while Castillo is good, his upside clearly doesn't match Jon Gray's.  Gray is their number four starter and the Rockies have practically no pitching depth in the upper minors right now.  

In order to land Jon Gray, you're looking at it costing us a package like Jose Suarez, Matt Thaiss and an additional arm for depth that has a bit of upside like Joe Gatto or Jesus Castillo. 

And if the deal is Suarez, Thaiss and Castillo for Gray......I dunno.  I'd have to really think on that.  On the one hand Gray could be an ace moving to a pitcher friendly setting, but on the other hand, losing Suarez and Castillo when you already have pitching issues sucks, and Thaiss is eventually the guys who will force Albert off 1B once he fully develops, and losing that would put the Angels in a bit of a tough spot. 

Sonny not Jon.

 

[Hubs]

19 hours ago, ettin said:

The only problem here is that Miami will not accept this package in all likelihood.

Realmuto can command a top prospect (Adell). Marlins management would have to be really sold on taking a trio of less-proven entities for the value they can extract from J.T..

Remember they wanted Juan Soto or Victor Robles supposedly from the Nationals. These are all high prices to pay.

Not saying it is impossible but it seems very unlikely.

They wanted Robles or Soto, but didn't get them. Robles ranked 4th in the last prospect ranking, Soto was ranked 29th when he graduated to the bigs. I don't think they'd move Soto or Robles now. Adell is ranked 15th, Canning 42nd and Marsh 98th. Thaiss, Jones, Renfigo, Maitan, Etc...do not rank currently in MLB's top 100.

I think the other teams in the running for Realmuto are the Braves and Astros, both of which have higher rated prospects, but may not want to deal them.

It should be at least pursued.

And while prospects are always more highly thought of by their own team's fans, I always see big trades end up costing less than we think.

 

 

 

[Second Base]

13 minutes ago, Hubs said:

Sonny not Jon.

 

Oh ok, Sonny Gray.  So Hermosillo and Jesus Castillo for Sonny Gray?  I'm thinking no on that one.  Gray has only one year of team control left, and Hermosillo is at worst a good 4th OF and Castillo himself is a back end starter or swing starter.  So those two each have six years of control remaining.  Plus, isn't Gray projected to earn 9 million this year? 

Yeah that just seems like an unnecessary risk all around.  Not a good deal. 

If it was simply something like a salary dump, like we take 7 million of the 9 owed and send them a depth piece like Joe Gatto, then sure. 

[Hubs]

6 minutes ago, Second Base said:

Oh ok, Sonny Gray.  So Hermosillo and Jesus Castillo for Sonny Gray?  I'm thinking no on that one.  Gray has only one year of team control left, and Hermosillo is at worst a good 4th OF and Castillo himself is a back end starter or swing starter.  So those two each have six years of control remaining.  Plus, isn't Gray projected to earn 9 million this year? 

Yeah that just seems like an unnecessary risk all around.  Not a good deal. 

If it was simply something like a salary dump, like we take 7 million of the 9 owed and send them a depth piece like Joe Gatto, then sure. 

A good 4th OF is always available in free agency or via trade. So at worst you think he's Colin Cowgill, but at best he's what Girchuck? I don't see the upside many do, but he could be a good player. As far as Castillo goes, he's a back of the rotation starter. These are both totally easily replaceable prospects for a rotation arm who almost won the 2015 Cy Young. Yeah, it's a good trade.