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Trading at the deadline (deal history since 2008)


Dochalo

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So I went fishing around trade deadline transactions to get an idea of what Garrett Richards would be worth should we decide to trade him.  I found a veritable wasteland of unrecognizable names.  Here are a few highlights:

2008 - CLE trades Sabathia to MIL and gets Brantley.  Cubs Get Rich Harden and include Donaldson in the deal.  CLE got Carlos Santana from the Dogs for Casey Blake. We got Tex for almost nothing.  

2009 - CLE traded Cliff Lee to PHI and got Carlos Carrasco.  CIN gave up Edwin Encarnacion to TOR for Rolen

2010 - SEA got Justin Smoak for Cliff Lee to TEX, We Got Haren for Corbin and Skaggs to ARI.  Kluber to CLE in a deal for Jake Westbrook. 

2011 - Beltran from NYM to SFG for Zack Wheeler.  Hunter Pence to PHI for Domingo Santana among others.  Orioles got Chris Davis and Tommy Hunter for Koji Uehara from TEX.  

2012 - HOU got Chris Devenski for Brett Myers from CWS.  We sent Segura to MIL for Greinke.  MIN got Eduardo Escobar from CWS for Liriano.  Cubs got Kyle Hendricks from TEX for Dempster.  

2013 - Cubs got Arrieta and Strop for Scott Feldman from BAL.  Jose Iglesias to the Tigers in a deal that sent Peavey to Boston via CWS and Avisail Garcia to CWS.  Orioles traded Hader to MIL for Bud Norris.

2014 - Cubs get Addison Russel, Straily and Bill McKinney for Hammel and Samardzija from Oakland.  HOU got Marisnick, Francis Martes and Colin Moran as well as a comp draft pick (Daz Cameron) for  Jarred Cosart and Kike Hernandez.  BOS Lackey to STL for Joe Kelly.  OAK Cespedes to BOS for Lester.  BOS got Eduardo Rodriguez for Andrew Miller.  David Price to DET for Willy Adames and Smyly.  

2015 - Cishek from MIA for Barraclough  STL.  Sean Manaea from KC to OAK for Zobrist.  CIN traded Leake to SFG for Adam Duvall.  Price to TOR for Daniel Norris to DET.  Hader, Philips, Domingo Santana for Fiers and Gomez HOU to MIL.    Cespedes from DET to NYM for Fulmer.  Hamels to TEX for Alfaro, Eickhoff to PHI.  

2016 - Cubs trade McKinney, Torres, Warren for Chapman.  Melvin upton from SDP to TOR for Hansel Rodriguez (?), CLE got Miller from the Yanks for Frazier, Sheffield and others.  MIL got Brinson from TEX for Lucroy.

there's a bunch still unresolved as we get more recent and even some of those listed in 2014/15 are marginally relevant and probably won't be in 2 years.  

I probably missed a few relevant ones but I combed through hundreds of transactions.  99% of them were completely meaningless.  

A couple of points from this info:

- If a team did well with their prospect haul then it was instrumental in setting them up for the future and vice versa.  CLE, HOU, NYY, Cubs, MIL have done well.  BAL, TEX it didn't work out great.  

The most recent WS contenders - SFG, STL, SFG, BOS, SFG, KCR, CHC, HOU have something in common.  They built up their farm systems and waited until a slew of young players were contributing at the major league level.  Then they had a coming out season and the FO make some strong moves to provide additional help.  Maybe only BOS in 2013 had less of a home grown core of players.  

- we aren't going to do anything material. Especially on the buy side.  The teams that bought too early and too often are paying the price and had little reward.  

- even if we sell, it's not likely that we'll get back anyone of major consequence unless we get lucky and Richards starts a bidding war.  Even still, most trades were inconsequential.  We should absolutely still try because as you can see, there were a few random trades that worked out well.  

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Last year's deadline proved rental vets don't get much of anything in deals anymore. The deal for Martinez returned very little to Detroit, an imperfect prospect to Texas for Darvish, and a bunch of lotto-tickets for Verlander. Upton came to us for a very minor cost as well. The valuation of prospects and young players is so extraordinarily high right now, I can't see Richards getting anything that tilts any needle, especially with his injury concerns and shaky performance this year.

Like I said in another thread, someone like a Brett Phillips or Domingo Santana or Dan Vogelbach or Mark Zagunis might be the best we can hope for - someone who hasn't really killed it in the majors but still has some shine. Someone who folds into the mix with Thaiss, Ward, Hermosillo, Fletcher or the rotation as just another intriguing option.

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8 minutes ago, totdprods said:

Last year's deadline proved rental vets don't get much of anything in deals anymore. The deal for Martinez returned very little to Detroit, an imperfect prospect to Texas for Darvish, and a bunch of lotto-tickets for Verlander. Upton came to us for a very minor cost as well. The valuation of prospects and young players is so extraordinarily high right now, I can't see Richards getting anything that tilts any needle, especially with his injury concerns and shaky performance this year.

Like I said in another thread, someone like a Brett Phillips or Domingo Santana or Dan Vogelbach or Mark Zagunis might be the best we can hope for - someone who hasn't really killed it in the majors but still has some shine. Someone who folds into the mix with Thaiss, Ward, Hermosillo, Fletcher or the rotation as just another intriguing option.

Richards has a 3.42 era with 78k in 68.1ip.  Maybe the fact that he's not performed well under pressure is a thing.  Maybe it's not.  But his performance overall has been very good and he's got such good stuff that some team will appreciate his ability to dominate.  I think that would be best for an NL team where lineups aren't as deep. The injury risk is there, but they'd only have to get him through half a season and he'd likely be the #3 with a couple other guys anchoring the staff ahead of him.  

Pretty much every potential playoff team could use an arm like his.  Remains to be seen whether all of those teams would pay anything for a rental.  

Probably:  NYY, SEA, WSN, SFG

Maybe:  ATL, PHI, LAD, ARI, MIL

Doubtful/No:  HOU, BOS, CLE, STL, CHC

 

 

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10 minutes ago, Scotty@AW said:

I wouldn't trade Richards. He's close with Trout, we need upside pitching and teams aren't paying much at the deadline anymore.

Offer him a qualifying offer and if he wants to leave, collect a draft pick.

 

18 minutes ago, totdprods said:

The Darvish deal feels like as close a comp as could be. He definitely fits that description though @Dochalo - they'd get something from him no doubt, just not sure it'd be anyone that makes selling him at the deadline a no-brainer.

If he's going to leave anyway, then you might as well get something for him.  Agree on the Darvish comp although Darvish was likely thought of as being better.  If you can't get a top 100 prospect and a couple of throw ins, then comp him and let him walk or sign him to an extension.  

you just have to pick the right prospect.  would love to get into the braves or brewers systems. but I doubt they'd pony up for a rental.  

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