AngelsWin.com Today: AngelsWin Top 30 Prospects: #10 OF Michael Hermosillo

[AngelsWin.com]

Prospect: Michael Hermosillo

Rank: 10

2016: 8

Position(s): Outfielder

Level: AAA Salt Lake

Age: Entering Age 23 season in 2018.

Height: 5’11” – Weight: 190 lbs

 

*20-80 scale.  20 is not existent, Major League average is 50.  Good Major League is 60.  Great Major League is 70.  The best I’ve ever seen is 80.  These aren’t given very often.

 

Floor: 4th outfielder in the major leagues.

 

Ceiling: All-star caliber starting outfielder in the major leagues.

 

Likely Outcome: Starting outfielder in the major leagues.

 

Summary: Everyone loves the story about the professional athlete that came out of nowhere.  Guys like Matt Shoemaker really are a great story.  Well Michael isn’t that story.  As much as others may want to peddle that story, it simply isn’t true.  Yes, he was a late round draft pick, and yes, he was more known for his accolades on the gridiron and his scholarship to play football at Illinois.  But he was also a ball player that was very much on the Angels (and other teams) radar.

 

I didn’t get to spend a lot of time as a scout.  I had other goals.  But I made some connections and learned some things over those two summers.  Really I learned two things.

 

1. Anyone over 6’2” that’s left handed and has a pulse will be drafted.

2. Athletes, athletes, athletes.  Not ball players.  Athletes.

 

Hermosillo fits neatly into the second, along with Mike Trout, Keynan Middleton, Andelton Simmons, and prospects like Jo Adell, Jahmai Jones and Brandon Marsh.  See scouts watch kids play baseball.  Baseball tells them where the skills are right now.  But it’s everything else that suggests where the skills may be in five years.  Scouts like kids that got good grades school, ones that started on the football or basketball team, ones that have goals outside of major league baseball (like being a meteorologist, Mike Trout).  Athletes just have an easier time adjusting to failure than ball players do.  Plus their natural ability tends to carry them through the low minors at a brisk pace.

 

Hermosillo was a good running back/wide receiver and a terror at safety.  But he chose baseball.  Smart choice.  The Angels agreed to pay for all of his schooling should he elect to attend school, plus a well above slot bonus.  Smart choice for Hermosillo, smart choice for the Angels.  But it wasn’t easy in the beginning for Michael.  He’d never seen pitchers throw that hard before, or pitches move that much.  Adjustments were needed.  First of all, Michael was a couple inches shorter and considerably lighter at the time, so there was physical development that needed to take place.  But there was also the manner of refinement that was necessary.  Hermosillo’s routes in the outfield were poor, and he showed dead-pull power, but not much else in the way of hitting.

 

The breakout really didn’t come for two more years until 2016.  Hermosillo’s performance in the weight room and being on a nutrition plan really began to take shape.  He’s a couple inches taller and very well built.  Not only that, Michael quieted his swing and began hitting the ball back up the middle on pitches over the plate and on the outer half.

 

This past season, Michael was clearly well beyond the competition in Advanced A Ball.  He was automatically the best player to step on the field every night and that was simply a product of development.  The Angels promoted him to AA (all in his age 22 season, which is pretty solid on the age curve), which was a much more appropriate level for Michael to be at.  He really struggled for the first couple months.  This was his first time facing pitching in the high minors which is a huge step up.  He was still getting on base at an outstanding clip which speaks volumes about his selectivity and value at such a young age.  But after three months, Michael finally turned that corner (the way that athletes instead of ball players tend to do).  Hermosillo had officially found his comfort zone.  He was a completely different player.  He had failed to hit higher than .234 in any month in AA before that but in July he hit over .300, was hitting for power, being more aggressive on the base paths, and still flashing the same ability to reach base as before.

 

The Angels felt the had officially outgrown AA which led to his promotion to AAA.  Again, all at the age of 22.  As it was with AA, AAA proved to be a much more fitting environment for Michael’s development.  While he did hit for more power (the altitude in the PCL is quite favorable to hitters that make solid contact like Hermosillo), Michael’s ability to work a walk wasn’t as effective as it had been at the lower levels.  His overall numbers were solid (.287/.341 6 DB 1 triple 5 HR’s 9 SB in only 30 games!), but it’s clear that Hermosillo can still learn a few things down on the farm.

 

Still, we do have a good idea as to who Michael is at this point.  He’s a very line drive oriented RHB that can drive the ball up the middle.  If pitchers make the mistake of busting him inside, Hermosillo definitely has the ability to yank these balls out of the park.  Teams will likely begin shifting on him with more data becoming available but it shouldn’t hinder his ability to reach base.  Hermosillo is also a smart, aggressive base runner that gets down the line quickly and can steal when given the green light.  Defensively, Hermosillo is a good defender at all three spots, so it won’t matter where you plug him in at, he’ll get the job done.

 

What to expect: I expect Hermosillo to spend most of Spring Training in big league camp, learning from the big leaguers and getting exposed and accustomed to what expectations are at the next level (last Spring Training was valuable for him as well).  I expect the Angels will keep Hermosillo in AAA until he’s ready for the next stage of development and they have at bats to offer him.  The Angels outfield is obviously pretty full for the time being, but you never know when or how opportunity may arise.  So Michael might be ready in May, or he may not be ready until the end of the year.  We’ll just have to wait and see.  It’s possible Hermosillo finishes the year in Anaheim and begins taking at bats away from Kole Calhoun.  It’s possible he finishes the year as the Angels fourth outfielder.  It’s possible he spends the entire year in AAA.  Lots of directions we can go here.

 

Estimated time of arrival: September 2018, this year.  Michael’s age 23 season.

 

Grade as a prospect: B

 

Grades Explained: Grade A player is a future superstar.  Grade B player is a future regular.  Grade C is a fringe major leaguer.

 

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[totdprods]

Really looking forward to him playing in Anaheim this year. I imagine he'll get at least a couple stints and hopefully shows what he's capable of. 

With the Angels OF under contract next few years, I think there will be another interesting 'battle' to watch: Hermosillo vs. Jones. Herm has a year-plus on Jones at this point developmentally, but if Jones has a big year, that gap could close fast and Herm may wind up getting squeezed out of a real shot at playing time. If the opposite happens or if Herm simply proves he can succeed at the big-league level, Eppler can be a little more open-minded to any trade hits on Jones that come in. If both do well, and especially if Calhoun rebounds, it's a good problem to have. 

[Erstad Grit]

What would benefit him most?  Being the 4th outfielder around the big leagues or playing everyday in aaa?

[totdprods]

2 minutes ago, Erstad Grit said:

What would benefit him most?  Being the 4th outfielder around the big leagues or playing everyday in aaa?

Everyday play in AAA for sure. He was only there a month and some change in '17. 

Bring him up if someone goes down and give him a shot, with a vet 4th OF on the bench at the ready.

[arch stanton]

With the current outfield healthy there's not more than a start every 5th game or so available plus some PH for the catchers and PR for the 1Bmen. Not really helpful for a youngin

[totdprods]

13 minutes ago, arch stanton said:

With the current outfield healthy there's not more than a start every 5th game or so available plus some PH for the catchers and PR for the 1Bmen. Not really helpful for a youngin

And it moves Herm and whoever is below him up a peg on depth chart needlessly. Stack the deck, add a vet OF to the mix. No need to rush Herm up to 4th OF when he doesn't need to be in that role and it's perfectly reasonable for him to be a starting AAA OF who can be the first option up of someone's hurt.

[Second Base]

Keeping Herm in AAA may end up being unnecessary with how quickly he's developing.

If Calhoun doesn't bounce back and Herm puts up the same numbers in AAA with his signature plate discipline, then Michael could be the starting RF by the all star break.

I think the likeliest scenario is Calhoun performs better this year but still shows that he leaves a lot to be desired vs LHP, while Herm does some silly things in AAA like 20 DB 15 triples 10 HR and 30 SB. Once the offseason rolls around, we'll see either Calhoun or Herm packaged with either Skaggs or Shoe and dealt for a starting 2B or 3B.

[Chuck]

An interview @Dave Saltzer did with Hermosillo a couple years back.

 

[Dave Saltzer]

Hermosillo really stood out on that team in Orem. His athleticism was quite pronounced compared to many of the others I saw there. Yes, there was some rawness to his play, but, he has struggled and improved as his risen through the organization. It will be very tough for him to break into our starting OF, but, he is a very capable player and athlete.

[krAbs]

Kid sounds really exciting - sounds like he may project well into a lead off position. High OBP with the ability to steal.

[Angel Oracle]

3 minutes ago, krAbs said:

Kid sounds really exciting - sounds like he may project well into a lead off position. High OBP with the ability to steal.

The Halos have a few of those on the farm, a great thing to see.   Need table setters for the Trouts, Uptons, Pujols', etc.

[totdprods]

Here's my minimum hope, and expectation, for a Hermosillo contribution in '18 (if he gets regular playing time, either as a 4th OF or injury replacement):

• 100 games, 350 plate appearances
• a slash of.255/.320/.350/.670, OPS+ of 80
• around 15 doubles, 2 triples, 5 homers, 15-20 stolen bases, 30 walks, 50 strikeouts.
• With good defense, that's probably around 1.5 WAR for league-minimum. 

Those numbers basically represent Maybin and Revere combined, adjusted to a part-time 4th OF role. Those two players cost us $13m in 2017. We don't even need Hermosillo to become a star or even an everyday player. If he simply can provide us adequate 4th OF production for $500k, he'll be awfully valuable.

Part of our problem has been our complete inability to produce even MLB-quality depth since guys like Cron and Calhoun arrived.

[ksangel]

Really nice to see that a player with this upside is #10 in the Angels system.

[Second Base]

Hermosillo has been a joy to watch progress through the system. It's not everyday you see a draft pick as late as him progress through the system the way he has. It's not everyday you see someone as promising at football choose baseball.

He's been particularly interesting because of his development curve. There wasn't a steady progression, there was breakthrough.

He may not have been great at age 18-20, but he's been fantastic at 21-22. They say you can't really teach plate discipline, only refine what was already there. Hermosillo either learned it, or had it and learned to use it.

But you can't teach the speed and strength he has. Hermosillo has the capability to hit .270/.360 30 DB 15 HR 30 SB and great defense.

By contrast, Calhoun is a solid bet for .260/.340 30 DB 20 HR, not much in SB and also great defense.

Basically, the difference between the two is +5 HR for Calhoun, +25 SB for Hermosillo and 20 points OBP for Herm. 

Now I'm not saying Herm is better, because he still needs probably half a year of development and Kole is more of a known entity.

But I am saying that Hermosillo can soon be better, younger, and cheaper, and could also result in reaping some considerable value from a Calhoun trade.

[Angelsjunky]

Yes, well said, Scotty - my sense is also that his upside is similar to Kole's, albeit with quite different skills. While I think his long-term future is elsewhere, he'd really make a great "super 4th outfielder." I could also see Kole traded next offseason to save a few million and have Herm start until Jahmai is ready. I'd also love to see the Angels try a five-outfielder rotation with the three spots, DH, and 4th outfielder, starting 2019 or 2020. So something like this:

2018: Upton, Trout, and Calhoun as the starting three, with Young, Liriano, and Hermosillo all getting time as the 4th outfielder and injury replacement.

2019: Upton and Trout starting; Kole possibly traded, with Hermosillo taking over as the starter. Liriano and Lund as 4th outfielders, with Jones getting a cup o' coffee in September.

2020: Upton, Trout, Herm, and Jones - with Upton being slowly transitioned to DH. Marsh gets a cup?

2021: As above, but Marsh and Adell now in the mix, Upton at DH. Herm traded?

2022: Deveaux?

 

[Docwaukee]

It bodes well for our system as a whole when Hermosillo has a nice year and drops from 8th to 10th.  It's hard to compare him and Kole in that he just finished his 22yo season at AAA while calhoun started his pro career at 22 for Orem.  

I think Mike's ceiling is higher.  He's got the same power potential if not more.  But Kole went from good college mid rounds pick who crushed low level pitching as expected to getting a cup of coffee in a year and then becoming a borderline All-star.  

Kole's numbers are real.  Mike's numbers are potential.  I'm not giving Kole's job away any time soon, but Herm's potential is really great.  

I've always said, he's a college prospect that didn't go to college.  Halos take a 28th round flier and probably had little expectation he'd sign.  In what amounted to his Junior season in college (2016), he had an 869 ops at A/A+.  Then essentially just finished his senior season.  

He probably gets picked in the first three rounds if he's coming out after his age 21 season.  

[Second Base]

1 hour ago, Dochalo said:

It bodes well for our system as a whole when Hermosillo has a nice year and drops from 8th to 10th.  It's hard to compare him and Kole in that he just finished his 22yo season at AAA while calhoun started his pro career at 22 for Orem.  

I think Mike's ceiling is higher.  He's got the same power potential if not more.  But Kole went from good college mid rounds pick who crushed low level pitching as expected to getting a cup of coffee in a year and then becoming a borderline All-star.  

Kole's numbers are real.  Mike's numbers are potential.  I'm not giving Kole's job away any time soon, but Herm's potential is really great.  

I've always said, he's a college prospect that didn't go to college.  Halos take a 28th round flier and probably had little expectation he'd sign.  In what amounted to his Junior season in college (2016), he had an 869 ops at A/A+.  Then essentially just finished his senior season.  

He probably gets picked in the first three rounds if he's coming out after his age 21 season.  

I don't know if I'd classify Kole as a borderline all star. There are always great OF's being snubbed and he's a tier below those guys. I'd say Calhoun is a league average offensive RF that really struggles against LHP and is a superb defensive RF, which on the whole, makes him a slightly above average major league regular.

As for your assessment of Herm....he would have left the board in the second round, borderline first. His upside is too high for 3rd or 4th, but his breakout came too late to risk using a 1st round pick. 

Right now Michael is potentially good, and Kole is actual realized above average. But if as a 23 year old, Hermosillo posts an OBP over .400 and is paced for 20 HR and 30 SB in AAA (he was on pace for more than that in his brief stint last year), which seems almost likely, then yeah, I'd definitely consider trading Calhoun next offseason, unless Kole has a career year in 2018.

Calhoun's job isn't at risk, but when you have a prospect as gifted as Herm in AAA, you become less accepting of poor platoon splits and mediocre OBP and speed, which is what Kole has right now.

And if it isn't Herm pushing to overtake him in 2019, then it's Jones in 2020. Either way, I don't see Calhoun remaining the starting RF for more than 1-2 years.

[Chuck]

Really excited about Hermosillo's future. Could be a great leadoff guy for the Angels as soon as 2019.