Yelich Dissatisfied in Miami

[Second Base]

13 minutes ago, jordan said:

That is a remarkable set of circumstances that lead me to think we really should go all in now.  Since we have a solid group of prospects in the fold, with Ohtani choosing us, and Upton choosing us, let's get all the pieces we can get to improve the club.  Trade for Yelich and sign Darvish.  That would definitely put us up there close to the Astros.  I'd still like one more bona-fide bullpen arm as well. 

The thing about that is, if you trade for Yelich, you're likely to lose a large portion of fortune that really either fell in our lap or our scouts really knew what they were talking about.

Our best prospects after Ohtani are Adell, Jones, Marsh, Maitan, Barria, Canning, Thaiss, Rodriguez and Hermosillo. That's 10 legitimately good major leaguers in the future. 

Just how much of that future are you willing to spend on just one player?

[totdprods]

37 minutes ago, jordan said:

That is a remarkable set of circumstances that lead me to think we really should go all in now.  Since we have a solid group of prospects in the fold, with Ohtani choosing us, and Upton choosing us, let's get all the pieces we can get to improve the club.  Trade for Yelich and sign Darvish.  That would definitely put us up there close to the Astros.  I'd still like one more bona-fide bullpen arm as well. 

That'd be one insane ending to this offseason. I'd even be happy 'settling' for a Cobb/Lynn/Garcia. 

Revisiting the 'four more moves' thread...
1) Let's call it Marsh, Jones, Ward, Heaney, Ramirez for Yelich and Ziegler. 
2) Sign a FA SP - anyone from Darvish down to Garcia.
3) Flip Calhoun straight up for Pat Corbin when Arizona misses out on JD Martinez. If that doesn't fly, maybe look at the McCarthy / Hammel / Happ tier, working in a optionable 4th OF or LHRP into the return.
4) Throw a handful of minor-league deals at guys like Abad, Krol, Jorge de la Rosa, Robbie Ross, Siegrist, Holmberg, Rosenthal, Liriano, Travis Wood, Salas, Simmons, Uehara, Romo, K-Rod, Oh, Hernandez, Cahill, Rondon, Chavez, Collmenter, Feliz. You'll likely get 2-3 of those guys to bite. Have them compete in ST.

Rotation (5): 
Richards, Skaggs, Ohtani, your FA signing of Darvish/Lynn/Cobb/Garcia, and your Kole trade return in Corbin/Happ/Hammel/McCarthy
In AAA at the ready, Shoemaker, Barria, Bridwell, Tropeano
It's set for the foreseeable future, even if Richards walks. 

Line-up (9): 
Kinsler 2B, Yelich RF, Trout CF, Upton LF, Pujols 1B, Cozart 3B, Ohtani/Valbuena DH, Simmons SS, Maldonado C
Only need to worry about replacing C and 2B next year, or 3B if Cozart moves over. Could try and go year-to-year with Kinsler if he's good, or pick up Valbuena's option and put him at 3B and Zack at 2B if Pujols/Ohtani/Cron/Thaiss can handle 1B in '19.

Bench (4):
Rivera, Valbuena, Cron, whomever for the last spot 
No need for a traditional back-up SS or CF with Cozart and Yelich on the team. Can mix and match 4th OF, UT IF, Cowart, extra reliever, 6th starter, etc.

Bullpen (7):
Bedrosian, Parker, Johnson, Ziegler, probably Wood are the sure things. Shoemaker, Alvarez, Bard, Noe Ramirez, Middleton, Paredes, and your trio of minor-league guys fight for the last 3 spots. 

I don't think you could map out a better team than that to cover the end of Trout, Billy, and Sosh's current contracts. That team is by and far intact for that duration. If it doesn't pan out, no one can say they didn't try. Billy would have plenty of interest as a FA GM if we didn't retain him for some dumb reason, and we would have made the best effort possible to get the Mikes to the WS. Arte can say he did all he could and spent to win. There's still enough farm intact too, and I trust Eppler would continue doing what he's done the last two years over the next two years.

[ten ocho recon scout]

1 hour ago, Scotty@AW said:

The thing about that is, if you trade for Yelich, you're likely to lose a large portion of fortune that really either fell in our lap or our scouts really knew what they were talking about.

Our best prospects after Ohtani are Adell, Jones, Marsh, Maitan, Barria, Canning, Thaiss, Rodriguez and Hermosillo. That's 10 legitimately good major leaguers in the future. 

Just how much of that future are you willing to spend on just one player?

I dont know anything about our prospects. I read you and some others on here praise some of them, so im excited, but i couldnt really say i know a thing about any one of them.

So id be ok trading for yelich, simply based on how simmons played out for us. (And i hate to say it, but i wonder if kole is really more glove than bat, with his bat being more average than we thought initially). 

That said, im still shell shocked from how bad our injuries and lack of a farm killed us the last few years. So id prefer staying with kole for now rather than blowing up what little farm we have.

[Second Base]

1 hour ago, totdprods said:

That'd be one insane ending to this offseason. I'd even be happy 'settling' for a Cobb/Lynn/Garcia. 

Revisiting the 'four more moves' thread...
1) Let's call it Marsh, Jones, Ward, Heaney, Ramirez for Yelich and Ziegler. 
2) Sign a FA SP - anyone from Darvish down to Garcia.
3) Flip Calhoun straight up for Pat Corbin when Arizona misses out on JD Martinez. If that doesn't fly, maybe look at the McCarthy / Hammel / Happ tier, working in a optionable 4th OF or LHRP into the return.
4) Throw a handful of minor-league deals at guys like Abad, Krol, Jorge de la Rosa, Robbie Ross, Siegrist, Holmberg, Rosenthal, Liriano, Travis Wood, Salas, Simmons, Uehara, Romo, K-Rod, Oh, Hernandez, Cahill, Rondon, Chavez, Collmenter, Feliz. You'll likely get 2-3 of those guys to bite. Have them compete in ST.

Rotation (5): 
Richards, Skaggs, Ohtani, your FA signing of Darvish/Lynn/Cobb/Garcia, and your Kole trade return in Corbin/Happ/Hammel/McCarthy
In AAA at the ready, Shoemaker, Barria, Bridwell, Tropeano
It's set for the foreseeable future, even if Richards walks. 

Line-up (9): 
Kinsler 2B, Yelich RF, Trout CF, Upton LF, Pujols 1B, Cozart 3B, Ohtani/Valbuena DH, Simmons SS, Maldonado C
Only need to worry about replacing C and 2B next year, or 3B if Cozart moves over. Could try and go year-to-year with Kinsler if he's good, or pick up Valbuena's option and put him at 3B and Zack at 2B if Pujols/Ohtani/Cron/Thaiss can handle 1B in '19.

Bench (4):
Rivera, Valbuena, Cron, whomever for the last spot 
No need for a traditional back-up SS or CF with Cozart and Yelich on the team. Can mix and match 4th OF, UT IF, Cowart, extra reliever, 6th starter, etc.

Bullpen (7):
Bedrosian, Parker, Johnson, Ziegler, probably Wood are the sure things. Shoemaker, Alvarez, Bard, Noe Ramirez, Middleton, Paredes, and your trio of minor-league guys fight for the last 3 spots. 

I don't think you could map out a better team than that to cover the end of Trout, Billy, and Sosh's current contracts. That team is by and far intact for that duration. If it doesn't pan out, no one can say they didn't try. Billy would have plenty of interest as a FA GM if we didn't retain him for some dumb reason, and we would have made the best effort possible to get the Mikes to the WS. Arte can say he did all he could and spent to win. There's still enough farm intact too, and I trust Eppler would continue doing what he's done the last two years over the next two years.

I think the problem with signing a free agent starter right now is that you have to take into account future costs, both in terms of AAV as it pertains to the luxury tax AND the yearly payroll. 

For example, Trout right now has an AAV of approximately 25 million a year.  We can fit that in the budget and stay well under the luxury tax.  But when we sign him to his extension, how much do you think it's gong to run us?  The greatest player of his generation, and perhaps the greatest player of all time.  10 years, 350 million?  400 million?  That's effectively going to add 10-15 million onto the AAV of our contracts that go toward the luxury tax.  On top of that, you're likely looking at extensions for Maldonado, Simmons, Richards and eventually Ohtani too.  

Assuming the luxury tax doesn't bump up past 225 million, the Angels could have a very difficult time staying under that tax and paying the penalty.  And judging by the Yankees, Red Sox, Giants, Dodgers and Nationals actions, being able to drop under and reset those penalties is paramount. 

Now on a year by year basis, you're looking at Trout making 34 million a year from now until the duration of his contract, as well as Pujols inching his way up toward 30 million.  As I've been told, the Angels are reaching their line in the sand where profitability comes into question with a payroll as high as they are going.  Now chances are income is going to go up because of greater attendance because this team is going to be a winner (and the presence of Ohtani) as well as the merchandise sales they'll receive from those Ohtani jerseys.

Still, on a yearly basis, the Angels are beginning to get expensive, and beyond their extensions, they may not have a ton of room for free agent signings.  

So the ides of adding Darvish, as awesome and underrated I feel he is, is a dangerous venture that the team may not be able to afford. 

[Angel Oracle]

Yelich will almost for sure take more in exchange than Simmons did.    Simmons slumped at the plate in 2014 and 2015, while Yelich has blossomed as a hitter.

Simmons of course is the elite of the elite in the field, but Yelich is really good defensively himself in the OF. 

[Mark68]

22 hours ago, Chuckster70 said:

Wow... I doubt we land Yelich, but I'm just glad Eppler "reached out" or around to inquire about him.

#YelichToo

[Troll Daddy]

21 hours ago, totdprods said:

No no no, they're not gonna have any interest in Kole. 

Keep Kole as a weird 4th OF/1B (sort of like what Headley or LoMo would have been) or, unfortunately, sell low and flip him for a vet SP, maybe on a team that misses out on a FA OF, or try to recoup a couple decent prospects in another deal.

Miami is gonna want OF prospects, controllable MLB starters, and another prospect, I'd guess. 

I doubt Kole likes your idea. 

[totdprods]

6 minutes ago, Troll Daddy said:

I doubt Kole likes your idea. 

Keeping Kole is my 3rd and last choice. I'm moving him for an arm first or prospects second.

[Second Base]

3 minutes ago, ten ocho recon scout said:

I dont know anything about our prospects. I read you and some others on here praise some of them, so im excited, but i couldnt really say i know a thing about any one of them.

So id be ok trading for yelich, simply based on how simmons played out for us. (And i hate to say it, but i wonder if kole is really more glove than bat, with his bat being more average than we thought initially). 

That said, im still shell shocked from how bad our injuries and lack of a farm killed us the last few years. So id prefer staying with kole for now rather than blowing up what little farm we have.

Yeah the lack of farm really torpedoed us the last 3 years or so.  And that all falls squarely on the shoulders of Jerry Dipoto.  He did to us exactly what he's doing to the Mariners right now, which is creating a very talented team on paper with no defense to back up a pitcher, bloated payroll, aging roster and a completely depleted farm.

So Eppler's gone about erasing those.  Just since he took over two years ago, he's infused an amount of talent that normally, it would take other systems several years to accumulate.  We'll start to see the farm support the major league club with guys like Barria and Hermosillo as early as this year, but the bulk of that talent we have coming up should support the major league roster in 2020 and beyond.  

It's really looking like a sustainable course of contention that Billy has laid the ground work and helped build.  They've spent some money this year, and through extensions they'll spend a bit more, but beyond 2020, I think you'll see the team stop spending as much in free agency and more survive off that elite talent coming from the farm, which will in turn lower the payroll.  

[totdprods]

39 minutes ago, Scotty@AW said:

On top of that, you're likely looking at extensions for Maldonado, Simmons, Richards and eventually Ohtani too.  

Still, on a yearly basis, the Angels are beginning to get expensive, and beyond their extensions, they may not have a ton of room for free agent signings.  

So the ides of adding Darvish, as awesome and underrated I feel he is, is a dangerous venture that the team may not be able to afford. 

It doesn't have to be Darvish, he's just the sexy name. Lynn, Cobb, or Garcia will be less money and still be represent solid adds to the rotation - especially if you're getting a SP in return for Kole as well. 

Its not going to be popular, but personally, I would target Darvish and do so with the expectation that I won't retain Richards in the offseason. He'll either be too much of a risk still and be affordable, but not reliable (in that case id still entertain keeping him) or he's going to pitch well and cost a fortune, a risky fortune. I'd hope Skaggs, Heaney, or Shoe emerge as a cheaper, good #3 and hope we get solid production out of #4-5, whoever it may be. It'll be especially important that we retain Bridwell, Barria, and Canning as they'll be our cheapest SP depth to offset things.

You could always roll with Cowart as a starter in '19 to save money too. 

Money will be incredibly tight but there is just enough flexibility to make it work, depending on who we give up. Thaiss can replace Cron, Ward for Maldonado, etc.

[Second Base]

7 minutes ago, totdprods said:

It doesn't have to be Darvish, he's just the sexy name. Lynn, Cobb, or Garcia will be less money and still be represent solid adds to the rotation - especially if you're getting a SP in return for Kole as well. 

Its not going to be popular, but personally, I would target Darvish and do so with the expectation that I won't retain Richards in the offseason. He'll either be too much of a risk still and be affordable, but not reliable (in that case id still entertain keeping him) or he's going to pitch well and cost a fortune, a risky fortune. I'd hope Skaggs, Heaney, or Shoe emerge as a cheaper, good #3 and hope we get solid production out of #4-5, whoever it may be. It'll be especially important that we retain Bridwell, Barria, and Canning as they'll be our cheapest SP depth to offset things.

You could always roll with Cowart as a starter in '19 to save money too. 

Money will be incredibly tight but there is just enough flexibility to make it work, depending on who we give up.

My baseball mind says absolutely, I agree with you.  But I think the very human side of all of this makes that unlikely.  I mean first, it would seem that Ohtani came to the Angels because he'd be their first Japanese born star and he wanted to kind of forge a new path.  I don't know how Darvish would affect how he views signing with the Angels.  Second, it's a business, but Richards is very close with some of our core, and signing someone else with the intention of letting Richards walk may not sit well with guys like Trout that may be considering making the Angels a career long home. 

Of course there's isn't anything to back any of it this up, but human emotions are never concrete, black and white entities.  And in a numbers driven game like baseball, it can drive folks crazy. 

[AngelsFanSince86]

3 hours ago, Scotty@AW said:

My baseball mind says absolutely, I agree with you.  But I think the very human side of all of this makes that unlikely.  I mean first, it would seem that Ohtani came to the Angels because he'd be their first Japanese born star and he wanted to kind of forge a new path.  I don't know how Darvish would affect how he views signing with the Angels.  Second, it's a business, but Richards is very close with some of our core, and signing someone else with the intention of letting Richards walk may not sit well with guys like Trout that may be considering making the Angels a career long home. 

Of course there's isn't anything to back any of it this up, but human emotions are never concrete, black and white entities.  And in a numbers driven game like baseball, it can drive folks crazy. 

Yeah this is basically how I feel about the whole replacing Calhoun thing.  You can't make major overhauls and expect to compete.  It just doesn't work in baseball.  As it is the only reason I am confident in the Angels doing well this year with all the new additions is because they are filling holes that were constantly changing anyways.  Otherwise it usually doesn't bode well regardless of how it looks on paper.  Remember when the Padres went all out?  The White Sox?  Didn't work for them because there was no chemistry.  Maybe given enough time it would have developed, but both organizations blew it up almost immediately.  The one guy we are all so worried about leaving (Trout) is not gonna be happy if we get rid of all the guys closest to him on the team.  Particularly when they are solid players.

[Rico]

Truthfully, we picked up Simmons cheap.  Yelich is more of a complete player than Simmons was, will cost much more.  We would be buying high.

[GrittyVeterans]

I don't understand the big hurry to move Calhoun. Even in a bad year for him he's still a pretty good player. If he has a good year he's a top 10 right fielder and we don't have to give anything up for him. I'm expecting him to bounce back to something like .270/.345/.440 this season. He has never been worth less than 2 WAR in a season which means he's a quality starting player even in his down years

 

Calhoun-Trout-Upton is a GREAT outfield. Spend assets on pitching 

[Docwaukee]

We're not getting Yelich.  He doesn't fit the profile of an Eppler addition.  On the surface it may seem like he does in that he's young, controllable and very good.  But he's front and center as an obvious trade candidate.  That creates bidding wars.  Something that I don't see Billy taking part in.   A more likely target is someone not well known to be on the block.  Like if we suddenly acquired  Stroman or Sanchez from TOR.  Not much of a chance of that happening, but I would be more surprised if we acquired Yelich.  

 

[totdprods]

6 hours ago, Dochalo said:

We're not getting Yelich.  He doesn't fit the profile of an Eppler addition.  On the surface it may seem like he does in that he's young, controllable and very good.  But he's front and center as an obvious trade candidate.  That creates bidding wars.  Something that I don't see Billy taking part in.   A more likely target is someone not well known to be on the block.  Like if we suddenly acquired  Stroman or Sanchez from TOR.  Not much of a chance of that happening, but I would be more surprised if we acquired Yelich.  

It's not the exact same scenario and a smaller scale, but you don't think Simmons' trade environment had similar bidding war aspects? You had the Dodgers and their farm in play, the Braves asking the Mets about Harvey, deGrom, Matz. 

Eppler dealing away our #1 prospect weeks into the job was pretty ballsy, especially with the shape the farm was in. It's one of the reasons why I think he'd surprise us. Maybe Yelich, maybe someone else, but he's shown that he's willing to pay when the price is right and with his contract up in a couple years, Trout's window one year shorter, and the offseason we're having, I could see him making a bold statement trade.

[krAbs]

https://mobile.twitter.com/MLBPipeline/status/953826628450189313

 

Uhh...no thanks...

[totdprods]

3 minutes ago, krAbs said:

https://mobile.twitter.com/MLBPipeline/status/953826628450189313

Uhh...no thanks...

Of course they'd ask about Acuna. Wouldn't you? Jay Bruce asked for $90m. J.D. Martinez asked for $200m. Doesn't mean they'll get it.

[bloodbrother]

Lol I'm sure they would ask for the 2nd best prospect in the game, doesn't mean they'd get him

Sidenote, Yelich looks like Sid from Toy Story

[floplag]

I'm going to get hammered for this but lets do a quick comparison:
Yelich line last year:  282/369/439  3.9 WAR
Calhoun:  244/333/392 2.1 WAR
Defense is a wash, maybe even the edge to Calhoun as a gold glover. 
Is it worth giving up all the progress weve made and literally blowing up the farm for the difference? 
That's the real question at the end of the day, and to me it is not. I dont see that much difference to justify it.  If he was a 40 HR guy to go with the rest, ok, but at the end of the day hes literally just a little bit better version of what we already have.  
 

[totdprods]

16 minutes ago, floplag said:

I'm going to get hammered for this but lets do a quick comparison:

Don't worry guys, I got this....

[Stradling]

Yellich is a lot better, he is younger and his contract is better and longer.

[tdawg87]

If the Marlins are asking for Acuna, it stands to reason that they'd want Adell AND Marsh/Jones, plus Barria and whatever else. 

We aren't getting him for Calhoun, Skaggs, Thaiss, and Ward. That's a clown package.

[floplag]

17 minutes ago, Stradling said:

Yellich is a lot better, he is younger and his contract is better and longer.

Perhaps, but that doesn't address the issue of is he worth blowing up the farm for the difference.  It isnt like its a black hole for us as is.  Thats all im saying.  Not knocking him or anything i simply dont think its worth that for the difference. 

[totdprods]

56 minutes ago, floplag said:

I'm going to get hammered for this but lets do a quick comparison:

You can't base it off one year's worth of production and WAR. There's more to it than that...
First, here's a good read that delves into stuff quite a bit more advanced than I'm capable of explaining. 

https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/turning-christian-yelich-into-joey-votto/ and here's another https://www.fangraphs.com/community/christian-yelich-fly-balls-and-a-new-hope/

Let's get the easy stuff out of the way:

• Age: Yelich is the same as Trout, 26, and has been and should be trending up. Calhoun is now 30, and is likelier to trend down, and has had down years in 2 of his last 3.
• Contract and Luxury Tax: Yelich is under contract longer than Calhoun - for the same salary, with aslightly lesser rate on the luxury tax - only ~$1m difference, but that's a depth arm.
• Positional versatility: Yelich can play CF at an above-average level. Calhoun probably can't. Don't need a conventional 4th OF who has to be able to play CF.
• Speed/Stolen Bases: Yelich averages 20 stolen bases a year. Calhoun hasn't stolen that many in his career (19). Our two biggest SB threats left via FA this year.
• Lead-off: Yes, Calhoun can hit lead-off, but that's looking less like an option as his career advances. Yelich gives you a lead-off hitter for years, something we have to solve every offseason. It also becomes a trait that we have had to emphasize on whomever we were acquiring each offseason, limiting our options.
• Batting average: Yelich is at .290 for his career. Kole is at .261. Again, age and trends...

Let's dig a little deeper...

• OBP: Yelich broke into the league at 21 and already displayed excellent plate discipline, something that tends to improve with age. He's never posted an OBP below .362. Kole's peak is the .340s, and he's only done ichoose files... Click to choose files t twice. Eppler spoke about prioritizing OBP this offseason....Kole has increased his walks every single season, topping out at 71 last year. Yelich already averages more than that, at 76.
• Power: Tends to also increase with age. Yelich averages 56 extra base-hits a year, Calhoun 53. Not a big difference, but remember who is trending where. Yelich has averaged 63 the last two years, Kole is probably peaking - 55 his last two seasons.
• Consistency: Over the last three seasons, Kole has had 8 months worth of sub .700 OPS (including 3 in '17) and 10 months of .700+ OPS. Yelich? Zero in the last two years. In fact, Yelich has only had three sub .700 OPS months in his career. Remember that Votto article? Consistency is Votto's calling card. Fun note, Trout has two sub .700 OPS months in that span too.
• Defense: In 3,500 innings as a corner outfielder, Yelich has 32 DRS, a UZR of 12.3. Kole has 6. Kole does school Yelich on UZR though: 32.9 to Yelich's 12.3, but with a 2,000 difference in innings, and Kole has 20 assists to Yelich's 11. Yelich actually has somewhat poor numbers in CF, so a move to corner outfield could help him quite a bit.

Trends, consistency, and how he fits into the Angels needs long-term, short-term, and in both the roster )(no more need for traditional 4th OF) and line-up composition (no more need for lead-off hitter) and age are the biggest factors for me. 

Two years from now, Yelich could be a .300/.400/.450 guy, and Kole could be down to .240/.300/.380. Now it's a huge difference. Could be a 150-200 point OPS swing and a 4 WAR difference.