Not done? pure speculation

[floplag]

OK so there's been a lot of "are we or are we not done talk.  I don't think we are as ive said in many threads, and i see some creative options out there.   I thought it start a thread on it for S&Gs to discuss some possible moves that could still happen in the realm of pure speculation assuming that we are not done.  I don't want to argue the merits of whether or not we are we all know where it stands luxury tax wise etc... Its just a place for some out of the box ideas. 

With that in mind here is my war board, in no specific order.  

#1 Obviously Darvish, nuff said. 

#2 i think there's merit to looking at a Chase Headley type of trade for the primary 1B.   Yes it means moving Cron and probably Valbuena or maybe even an outright release, but the upgrade may be worth it.   (Cron+ mid prospect at best as more of a salary savings for SD, adds about 10 mill to salaries i suppose)

#3  File under out of the box creativity, but why not trade for McCutcheon?  The most recent talk suggests the package wont be that large which puts us in the mix.   Yes, it would require trading Kalhoun in the process.  (Kalhoun + prospects to be determined but not top 5 guys for rental, adds about 6 mil to salaries)

#4 All of the above?  Thats a roster that could make a run at Hou.   We could possibly do the Headley/McCutcheon deals without even hitting the tax if my math is right and thats assuming eating Valbuena if we cant find a trade for him. 

Yes I know likely could put us over the tax for the year, but most of it also falls off after next year as well so it doesnt take us out of next years FA market.   We could also decide to try to keep McCutcheon over making a run at Harper 

Lets assume for a moment they happen, we put this lineup on the field:
C - Maldy
1b - Headley/Pujols/Othani
2B - Kinsler
SS - Simba
3B - Cozart
LF - Upton
CF - Trout
RF - McCutcheon
DH - Pujols/Othani
That might be the best defensive team in MLB,  and has very few holes offensively. 

 

Anyway, just a little random roster pron for a Monday morning.  

[GoodTimesGoneBad]

Trade whatever it takes to get Archer and Colome. 

[KDWells]

I personally don't see Cutch or Headley being big enough upgrades to justify making those moves at this point. If the Angels were hellbent on moving on from Cron/Valbuena I would rather just see them sign a guy like Logan Morrison instead of a stopgap like Headley playing out of position. 

There is a pretty good chance that Calhoun and Cutch put up similar numbers next year and Calhoun is better defensively which adds to his value. I do not see a huge upgrade to Calhoun out there on the market right now so I don't see the Angels making a move for RF unless Eppler is in love with a longterm solution guy like Clint Frazier and tries to swing a deal of that nature.

[floplag]

Just now, GoodTimesGoneBad said:

Trade whatever it takes to get Archer and Colome. 

I didnt list anything like or a Yelich/Machado type deal that for 2 reasons;

#1 i don't think we have the parts on the farm to make those deals
#2 i don't really want to gut the pipeline and progress weve made in that regard. 

Good feedback though

[Second Base]

We're mostly done. Pure speculation.

[floplag]

1 minute ago, KDWells said:

I personally don't see Cutch or Headley being big enough upgrades to justify making those moves at this point. If the Angels were hellbent on moving on from Cron/Valbuena I would rather just see them sign a guy like Logan Morrison instead of a stopgap like Headley playing out of position. 

There is a pretty good chance that Calhoun and Cutch put up similar numbers next year and Calhoun is better defensively which adds to his value. I do not see a huge upgrade to Calhoun out there on the market right now so I don't see the Angels making a move for RF unless Eppler is in love with a longterm solution guy like Clint Frazier and tries to swing a deal of that nature.

The reason i like Headley is versatility.   He could be the primary 1B, backup 3B, and 4th OF as needed a day or so a week.  I like Morrison as well and mentioned him many times, actually had him in the draft of the post, but took him out due to limited versatility making him less likely. 

[Blarg]

You are over spending for a backup.

[Chuck]

We're just waiting for prices to drop..

Howie Kendrick who had a nice season last year just signed a 2-year 7 million dollar deal with the Nationals. 

Eppler is just exercising patience.

[KDWells]

1 minute ago, floplag said:

The reason i like Headley is versatility.   He could be the primary 1B, backup 3B, and 4th OF as needed a day or so a week.  I like Morrison as well and mentioned him many times, actually had him in the draft of the post, but took him out due to limited versatility making him less likely. 

I think Valbuena will be much better next season having a spring training and not having to jump right into action in May, so I would probably rather keep him for the 1B/3B and just roll with break in case of emergency fourth outfielders like EYJ or Hermosillo in case of a longer term injury.

[arch stanton]

I don’t see them looking at any other starting position players but....

If you look at the current 40 man the only OF outside the 3 starters is Hermosillo. Surely they’ll look at getting someone besides EY Jr with ML experience 

Plenty of arms still out there. It could be some small upgrades in the pen and definitely some minor league signings 

[totdprods]

I'd be more interested in Josh Harrison than McCutchen. He'd round out the bench nicely, but he's probably going to cost too much to relegate to bench player. 

[Inside Pitch]

1 hour ago, Chuckster70 said:

We're just waiting for prices to drop..

Howie Kendrick who had a nice season last year just signed a 2-year 7 million dollar deal with the Nationals. 

Eppler is just exercising patience.

Thats a pretty strong deal for the Nats...

[floplag]

Guess Cutch is out, multiple sources reporting him to the Giants.  It will be interesting to see the package sent. 

[ettin]

So I actually started to write up an article on this very subject but I have not had much time to finish it so I'll just piggy back on @floplag's post here.

One position that I could see the Angels taking is to act as a facilitating, third team, in a Manny Machado trade. To be clear we would not be the ones acquiring Machado (that ship has sailed for 2018 but could potentially be revisited in free agency in 2019) but we would act as a transaction enabler.

The idea would be that since the Angels have two 3B that they do not necessarily need to keep in 2018, in Luis Valbuena and Kaleb Cowart, they could use one of them as trade currency to send to Baltimore as a hot corner replacement as part of a larger package in a Machado for starting pitching swap.

Remember now that the Orioles are asking for two (2) controllable starters back in exchange for Machado. To be frank most MLB teams do not have the will to trade one starter much less two of them from their own roster. There are perhaps only a small handful of teams that could afford that right at this moment. However this is what Baltimore has explicitly expressed that they want so let's work off of that stated objective.

So one way to get around sending out two starters is to have another team, like the Angels for example, provide one of those starters in exchange for other prospects/players.

Here is just one proposal that might be achievable:

Orioles

Send 3B Manny Machado to the Cleveland Indians

Send C Prospect Chance Sisco to the Los Angeles Angels

Send OF Prospect Cedric Mullins to the Cleveland Indians

Indians

Send SP Ryan Merritt to the Baltimore Orioles

Send 3B Yandy Diaz to the Los Angeles Angels

Send RP Cody Allen to the Los Angeles Angels

Send $4M in cash to the Los Angeles Angels

Angels

Send RP Cam Bedrosian to the Cleveland Indians

Send SP Matt Shoemaker to the Baltimore Orioles

Send 3B/2B Kaleb Cowart to the Baltimore Orioles

 

Orioles Why?

The Orioles want controllable starters and Merritt comes with 6 years of team control and Shoemaker has 3 years of team control, satisfying their stated objective of two controllable starters. Additionally they pick up Cowart who really doesn't have much of a place on the Angels active roster and would not see much action in a backup role, making him expendable and more importantly allowing Kaleb to get a change of scenery that could unlock more of his potential. At worst he's a fine utility man for Baltimore and that is how he is valuated in this trade concept as a long term utility asset that might be more.

Of course the O's lose their last year of control of Machado but that ship looks like it is sailing far away from them and cutting loose of him now is the smart thing to do. They also lose Sisco but because their roster is filled with 1B/DH types (Chris Davis, Trey Mancini and Mark Trumbo) they will have a difficult time getting his bat into the lineup on a regular basis in a part time catcher platoon. Moving him to the Angels will allow him to split time at C and 1B/DH and as a bench bat. Mullins goes to the Indians as a long-term depth piece that could see action in a couple of seasons.

Indians Why?

Cleveland, of course, would love to improve their chances of another postseason run by acquiring one year of one of the best players in baseball at the hot corner. With Brantley's health in doubt again and Chisenhall in his last year of control the Indians can have Jose Ramirez move out to LF again (or RF too), moving Chisenhall to a possible backup role as needed depending on how things shake out.

In order to acquire Machado they have to part with one of their young starters, Ryan Merritt, which is softened by the fact that they have other young pitching options they can use as depth. Of course they lose a promising young infielder in Diaz but they still have Kipnis with three years of control and Ramirez who is under contract for at least the next four years (he has two options after that) so losing Yandy is a luxury they can afford on their depth chart. They also lose their last year of Cody Allen who they were going to lose to free agency but in return they are getting back four years of control over Cam Bedrosian giving them a long-term back-end relief option. Also they acquire a long-term OF option in Mullins who could impact them later down the line as a cost-controlled piece. Finally they send $4M in cash to off-set some of the expense for the Angels payroll.

Angels Why?

For the Angels we need to find a long-term solution at 3B starting next season and Yandy Diaz is a very interesting prospect for Billy Eppler who has stated he wants to improve on-base percentage. Diaz has a long history in the Minors as an on-base machine, is improving defensively at 3B, and has the potential to be a stronger power source if he can elevate his hits more. This could backfire on the Halos but it has a lot of potential to be more for the next 6 years of team control. Most importantly we can keep him down in the Minors to start the year and bring him up later in case of injury or as a cup of coffee later in the year.

Also the Angels pick up catching prospect Chance Sisco who with his left-handed power bat could also impact our 2018 season and beyond. The Angels could also start him down in the Minors and plug him in if an injury arises. Starting in 2019 he could take over the backup role at catcher and split time in the 1B/DH spots as needed allowing his big bat to play more. Additionally the Angels would pick up the last season of RP Cody Allen which would replace the loss of Cam Bedrosian at least for the short term.

Of course the Angels would lose the next three years of Shoemaker but there are other pitchers who can replace his production like Jaime Barria (or Luis Castillo and Jake Jewell). Matt is already escalating team payroll in arbitration so it is only a matter of time before the Angels either trade him or sign him to a team friendly contract, probably the former. Additionally they lose Bedrosian to the Indians who need to find a long-term closer type. It allows the Angels to compete this season with a good reliever and revisit the bullpen needs next off-season (where they might find a better deal). Finally they lose Cowart who, quite frankly, was going to have trouble finding playing time even in a utility position with the way this current roster is constructed with Ohtani in the DH mix and superior defenders around the diamond in Simmons, Cozart, and Kinsler.

Conclusion

In the end I think the Indians and Angels would be satisfied with this trade. The Orioles would be too if those two starters satisfy their desired objective but as an outsider looking in I think Baltimore would be losing a touch in this deal. However their hands are tied with Machado and moving him now and this might turn out to be the best solution for them in a weird marketplace. Manny's time in Baltimore is up and they know it so finding a deal like this is probably the best they will get. The Orioles would be taking on about $11M for just 2018 which, with the $50M BAM windfall, is probably a one-time bump up that they could accept. For the Angels we compete in 2018 while grabbing long-term assets that will make our squad better not only in 2018 but beyond.

Edited January 15, 2018 by ettin

[Hubs]

Angels Send Tyler Skaggs along with two prospects (one of Brandon Marsh / Jamai Jones) (one of Chris Rodriguez, Griffen Canning, or Jaimie Barria) to Tampa Bay for P Chris Archer.

The Angels need an innings horse, Archer is it. Archer has had an ERA of around 4, but that's in the Trop, and on a mediocre team, but he also pitched 200 IP for the last three seasons, and also has struck out 734 batters combined in those three years. That's nearly 250 SO per season.

He's under control for 2018 (6.25) and 19 (7.5) and options in 20 (9) and 21 (11). That's four years of control for basically 34 Million.  Even if he's only worth 2-3 WAR per season, he'd be a solid veteran who gives the Angels probably 130-35 starts over four seasons for like 250k per start. They might get 1000 strike outs for 3.4k per strikeout.

(Signing Darvish instead for instance gives you a guy who has only pitched 200 IP once, and would likely cost you like 800k per start minimum, and cost you 150k per strikeout.)

Yes it would cost a top prospect or two, and a major league controlled starter as well, but the benefit outweighs the cost. Skaggs could be a very similar pitcher to Archer, except he hasn't proven it and will still cost the Angels similar dollars over the next 4 years, three of arbitration control. (Because the 4th season will cost $15M per likely, I'm guessing his arbitration numbers would be 2.5, 5.5, 8.5 and then minimum 15 in his first free agent year.)

 

I"d also consider CJ Cron a throw in if the Rays would throw in someone like, say Jake Bauers, but I doubt they do that.

 

[Hubs]

I'd also consider Krod, and Jake Arrieta if the price was right.

 

[Erstad Grit]

 

Noooooooo on darvish

[totdprods]

@Hubs, no concern about Archer leaving a start Inn september with forearm tightness?

That reason alone tips the scale in Darvish's favor to me. He's already been through TJS, so fingers crossed, he should be safe for at least the first few seasons of a contract. Archer on the other hand hasn't, and has quite a bit of high-leverage mileage on his arm.

It'd be quite the hit to blow our limited prospect load on a guy who winds up needing TJS and missing a bulk of his prime value time, and that's certainly possible.

Couple weeks back I compared the last 3yrs of Archer and Darvish and they were nearly identical. Given the TJS risk and cost, l'll opt for Darvish.

[krAbs]

Weird thing I just noticed...

Darvish has a career 3.42 era, with an era of 3.86 last year, and is projected to get a 3.98 era next year by baseball reference.

Arrieta has a career 3.57 era, had an era of 3.53 last year, and is projected to get a 3.35 era next year by baseball reference.

They are the same age, and by my understanding Darvish appears to have better peripherals (similar era+ last year, but better career era+, better FIP last year and better career FIP,  better K rates, and similar walk rates). Weird that they are projected to move like that.

[ettin]

8 minutes ago, totdprods said:

@Hubs, no concern about Archer leaving a start Inn september with forearm tightness?

That reason alone tips the scale in Darvish's favor to me. He's already been through TJS, so fingers crossed, he should be safe for at least the first few seasons of a contract. Archer on the other hand hasn't, and has quite a bit of high-leverage mileage on his arm.

It'd be quite the hit to blow our limited prospect load on a guy who winds up needing TJS and missing a bulk of his prime value time, and that's certainly possible.

Couple weeks back I compared the last 3yrs of Archer and Darvish and they were nearly identical. Given the TJS risk and cost, l'll opt for Darvish.

The thing you have to remember her Tot is that Archer would be far, far, more favorable to team payroll over the next four years. I like both pitchers but financially Archer is superior.

I suggested Chris in the Primer Series (with a trade proposal similar to Hubs) and I think we could squeeze Darvish into the payroll if Moreno authorizes an increase over the Luxury Tax in 2019 and 2020 but our focus should be on Trout's extension and ensuring we have enough room for it.

[ettin]

3 minutes ago, krAbs said:

Weird thing I just noticed...

Darvish has a career 3.42 era, with an era of 3.86 last year, and is projected to get a 3.98 era next year by baseball reference.

Arrieta has a career 3.57 era, had an era of 3.53 last year, and is projected to get a 3.35 era next year by baseball reference.

They are the same age, and by my understanding Darvish appears to have better peripherals (similar era+ last year, but better career era+, better FIP last year and better career FIP,  better K rates, and similar walk rates). Weird that they are projected to move like that.

FanGraphs has the opposite for Steamer and Depth Charts projections. Just depends on the system and inputs to how they estimate and project. What you should do is combine the projections from the Major systems, based on a weight of their innings pitched from each system, and combine them to achieve a more accurate picture.

[krAbs]

1 minute ago, ettin said:

FanGraphs has the opposite for Steamer and Depth Charts projections. Just depends on the system and inputs to how they estimate and project. What you should do is combine the projections from the Major systems, based on a weight of their innings pitched from each system, and combine them to achieve a more accurate picture.

Hu, fangraphs doesn't love either of them (though, they tend to have conservative numbers it seems). they have darvish at a similar place, but arrieta almost a point higher than BR does. At a glance, it looks like most of fangraphs change between this year and next year comes from their BABIP - its saying that both are unsustainable, but Arrieta's is REALLY unsustainable (projecting that it will be .041 higher than his career numbers).

I guess the lesson here is that, especially with pitchers, take these numbers with a huge grain of salt.

[Angel Oracle]

Better take a look at Archer's past two seasons on the road.   His 2015-2017 splits show a 3.01 home ERA and 4.57 road ERA, and the 4.57 road ERA is only because it was mid 3.00s in 2015.

The Tropacrapa Dome appears to not be his big issue.  Pitching on the road seems to be that.   No thank you, look in other directions.

[totdprods]

13 minutes ago, ettin said:

The thing you have to remember her Tot is that Archer would be far, far, more favorable to team payroll over the next four years. I like both pitchers but financially Archer is superior.

I suggested Chris in the Primer Series (with a trade proposal similar to Hubs) and I think we could squeeze Darvish into the payroll if Moreno authorizes an increase over the Luxury Tax in 2019 and 2020 but our focus should be on Trout's extension and ensuring we have enough room for it.

For sure he's financially superior - but he's not much good if he misses 18 months in the middle of our Trout window. 

And to be clear, I'm totally aware there's no surefire indication of a TJS risk, but over the last few years, even before it hit the Angels, I started thinking that if I were a baseball GM, I would operate with the assumption that 1) I'm going to lose 1-2 arms to TJS this year 2) anyone on my staff who hasn't had one is likely to have one 3) I'm going to consider that acquiring pitchers as well, and lean more towards arms who have already had it, rather than risk making a move only to have 18-24 months of production go down the shitter.

That financial flexibility won't mean much if we're needing to replace Archer and spend more to fill the rotation. 

And again, he's thrown a lot of innings and left a start in Sept. with forearm tightness. Red flags. Tampa's known to be selling and yet Archer remains, so not sure teams are too comfortable with the price or the risk.

[krAbs]

1 minute ago, totdprods said:

For sure he's financially superior - but he's not much good if he misses 18 months in the middle of our Trout window. 

And to be clear, I'm totally aware there's no surefire indication of a TJS risk, but over the last few years, even before it hit the Angels, I started thinking that if I were a baseball GM, I would operate with the assumption that 1) I'm going to lose 1-2 arms to TJS this year 2) anyone on my staff who hasn't had one is likely to have one 3) I'm going to consider that acquiring pitchers as well, and lean more towards arms who have already had it, rather than risk making a move only to have 18-24 months of production go down the shitter.

That financial flexibility won't mean much if we're needing to replace Archer and spend more to fill the rotation. 

I heard somewhere that the opposite may actually be true- someone who has had TJS is more likely to need a second one than someone who has never had it is to need the first one. This might be a sample size issue, but it KINDA makes sense - if your delivery is putting a ton of strain on your arm, and you are pushing yourself in the majors, maybe it causes damage faster than we realize.