The time to go "all in" is right now

[ettin]

1 hour ago, jordan111280 said:

At this point in the off-season, all signs are pointing to players not getting overpaid, at least in terms of years in the contract.  It's reasonable to think Darvish can be had without overpaying, especially if he does indeed want to stay in SoCal.  4/85 or 5/110 might get it done and I don't think that's excessive. 

 

40 minutes ago, Troll Daddy said:

I rest my case ty 

 

35 minutes ago, Stradling said:

I think we will see Darvish Get a lot less than most thought he’d get at the start of the off season. 

The premier free agents in any particular market will always get paid top dollar barring a hometown discount (and even that will likely be a slight one at most).

The bargains trickle down the depth chart of free agents in any particular off-season.

There have been a variety of factors constraining the market this year but I'd be willing to be that if you take any previous comps for free agents like Arrieta and Darvish, adjusting for inflation, you'll find that the two of them will be appropriately paid in this 2017-2018 off-season.

Now will there be deals to be had after the dust has settled over the top guys? Yes I would agree with that, particularly with how close we are approaching Spring Training.

[Docwaukee]

10 minutes ago, ettin said:

 

 

The premier free agents in any particular market will always get paid top dollar barring a hometown discount (and even that will likely be a slight one at most).

The bargains trickle down the depth chart of free agents in any particular off-season.

There have been a variety of factors constraining the market this year but I'd be willing to be that if you take any previous comps for free agents like Arrieta and Darvish, adjusting for inflation, you'll find that the two of them will be appropriately paid in this 2017-2018 off-season.

Now will there be deals to be had after the dust has settled over the top guys? Yes I would agree with that, particularly with how close we are approaching Spring Training.

Agree with this.  

I think the top guys will get fewer years than expected, but a higher AAV will make up for it.  Zimmermann is a good comp for Darvish.  He was probably a bit better actually.  Even though Darvish is entering his age 31 season, he's already 31 and will be 32 in August.  Zimm didn't turn 30 until may of the 2016 season which was his first for Det.  So he's almost two years younger than Darvish will be when he signs his contract.  

He got 5/110.  

There wasn't really much of a comp from 2016.  

In 2015, there was also Samardjzija who got 5/90  Entering his age 31yo season.  Darvish has been better when healthy.    Cueto is also a good comp.  but 18 months younger at the time he signed.  He got 6/130.   Lester in 2014 is a reasonable comp as well.  6/155.  

I keep coming back to 5/110-120 as the number.  Don't see 4 years getting it done.  But 4/100 would be great.  I think we'd have to move some money to keep us below the threshold though.  

 

[Troll Daddy]

30 minutes ago, ettin said:

 

 

The premier free agents in any particular market will always get paid top dollar barring a hometown discount (and even that will likely be a slight one at most).

The bargains trickle down the depth chart of free agents in any particular off-season.

There have been a variety of factors constraining the market this year but I'd be willing to be that if you take any previous comps for free agents like Arrieta and Darvish, adjusting for inflation, you'll find that the two of them will be appropriately paid in this 2017-2018 off-season.

Now will there be deals to be had after the dust has settled over the top guys? Yes I would agree with that, particularly with how close we are approaching Spring Training.

I’m not sure you understood my post but carry on

[ettin]

3 minutes ago, Troll Daddy said:

I’m not sure you understood my post but carry on

Maybe I didn't but it looked like you were concurring so my bad if that was not the case.

[Troll Daddy]

5 minutes ago, ettin said:

Maybe I didn't but it looked like you were concurring so my bad if that was not the case.

Lol no problem 

[ettin]

9 minutes ago, Dochalo said:

Agree with this.  

I think the top guys will get fewer years than expected, but a higher AAV will make up for it.  Zimmermann is a good comp for Darvish.  He was probably a bit better actually.  Even though Darvish is entering his age 31 season, he's already 31 and will be 32 in August.  Zimm didn't turn 30 until may of the 2016 season which was his first for Det.  So he's almost two years younger than Darvish will be when he signs his contract.  

He got 5/110.  

There wasn't really much of a comp from 2016.  

In 2015, there was also Samardjzija who got 5/90  Entering his age 31yo season.  Darvish has been better when healthy.    Cueto is also a good comp.  but 18 months younger at the time he signed.  He got 6/130.   Lester in 2014 is a reasonable comp as well.  6/155.  

I keep coming back to 5/110-120 as the number.  Don't see 4 years getting it done.  But 4/100 would be great.  I think we'd have to move some money to keep us below the threshold though.  

 

Actually the most recent comp that makes sense to me is Zach Greinke. Greinke entered his age 32 season and has very similar career numbers (smaller K/9 and BB/9 rates but overall similar career results). He got 6 years/$206M (about $34M AAV) and that was two off-season's ago so adjust for inflation.

To me Darvish will hit $30M per year no sweat, probably on a 5 year, maybe 6 year, deal. Quite possibly more on the dollars side.

[Stradling]

10 minutes ago, ettin said:

Actually the most recent comp that makes sense to me is Zach Greinke. Greinke entered his age 32 season and has very similar career numbers (smaller K/9 and BB/9 rates but overall similar career results). He got 6 years/$206M (about $34M AAV) and that was two off-season's ago so adjust for inflation.

To me Darvish will hit $30M per year no sweat, probably on a 5 year, maybe 6 year, deal. Quite possibly more on the dollars side.

I will put money on it that he won’t get close to $30 million a season.  

[Docwaukee]

8 minutes ago, ettin said:

Actually the most recent comp that makes sense to me is Zach Greinke. Greinke entered his age 32 season and has very similar career numbers (smaller K/9 and BB/9 rates but overall similar career results). He got 6 years/$206M (about $34M AAV) and that was two off-season's ago so adjust for inflation.

To me Darvish will hit $30M per year no sweat, probably on a 5 year, maybe 6 year, deal. Quite possibly more on the dollars side.

Maybe.  Greinke's numbers were better by an era of over half a run.  But Yu did pitch in Arlington and the AL.  

I just don't think Darvish is viewed in the same light as the true ace that Greinke was viewed.  Especially after coming off a season with a 1.66 era as he did.  

Arizona also had to grossly overpay him to grab him from the dogs and that contract is widely regarded as one of the worst in major league history.  The guys with an AAV of over 30m are Greinke, Price, Scherzer, and Kershaw.  

Yu Darvish isn't any of those guys and never has been.  Lester, Stras, Felix, Hamels?  They're all in the 25 range. That's a bit closer but when they signed their deals, they were better than him as well.    

I just don't see him getting 30 AAV.  Maybe 25m.  A team like the Twins might have to add the 6th year to bring it up to 6/150, but that the max I see coming.  

[eligrba]

Not even sure if this team is capable of making the playoffs unless everything goes relatively well.

In my opinion, it is too early to go "all in" at the cost of future opportunities.

[ettin]

Wait is this thread title really a thread about @tdawg87's arrival in Spring Training this year?

[Stradling]

8 minutes ago, ettin said:

Wait is this thread title really a thread about @tdawg87's arrival in Spring Training this year?

something something cez

[Warfarin]

3 hours ago, eligrba said:

Not even sure if this team is capable of making the playoffs unless everything goes relatively well.

In my opinion, it is too early to go "all in" at the cost of future opportunities.

I fully agree.  Now is not the time.  We are building something great here.  Patience is a virtue.  Stay the course, keep adding pieces, focus on building the farm, do NOT overpay for aging starters.  Next offseason might be the time we take a big shot, but I'd say it's probably too early this offseason.

On another note, the signing of Rivera puts our luxury tax AAV at roughly 176mil now.  It would be impossible to fit Darvish is under the luxury tax level unless we shed other contracts, which I deem fairly unlike, with the exception of Cron.

[Cosmo_Kramer]

I'd be fine with Darvish at a reasonable price, but I don't want any of the other options (e.g. Cobb, Lynn). I think that would mean no more Richards in 2019 though...

The problem with the 2019 FA market is that it's also pretty thin on elite pitching. You'll have Kershaw at the top, but who else? Keuchel? Meh. Pomeranz? Meh. Gio? Meh. I like Darvish more than all those guys.

[Warfarin]

2 minutes ago, Cosmo_Kramer said:

I'd be fine with Darvish at a reasonable price, but I don't want any of the other options (e.g. Cobb, Lynn). I think that would mean no more Richards in 2019 though...

The problem with the 2019 FA market is that it's also pretty thin on elite pitching. You'll have Kershaw at the top, but who else? Keuchel? Meh. Pomeranz? Meh. Gio? Meh. I like Darvish more than all those guys.

If we're going to spend money on an ace, we might as well go for the biggest fish of all!  Kershaw, Richards, Ohtani, Heaney, Skaggs.  Pretty awesome rotation, I'd say.  

That said though, his back problems are definitely very concerning.

[Cosmo_Kramer]

13 minutes ago, Warfarin said:

If we're going to spend money on an ace, we might as well go for the biggest fish of all!  Kershaw, Richards, Ohtani, Heaney, Skaggs.  Pretty awesome rotation, I'd say.  

That said though, his back problems are definitely very concerning.

Back issues, and I just don't see him leaving the Dodgers. He's their Trout.

[Warfarin]

3 minutes ago, Cosmo_Kramer said:

Back issues, and I just don't see him leaving the Dodgers. He's their Trout.

I disagree on that one.  I think the Dodgers will let him go unless he takes a significant hometown discount.  That FO is good about separating sentiment from business.  If Kershaw, at age 31 and a recent history of back injuries, demands a 7+ year deal from them, they'll let him go.  I am almost positive of this.  

[Cosmo_Kramer]

1 minute ago, Warfarin said:

I disagree on that one.  I think the Dodgers will let him go unless he takes a significant hometown discount.  That FO is good about separating sentiment from business.  If Kershaw, at age 31 and a recent history of back injuries, demands a 7+ year deal from them, they'll let him go.  I am almost positive of this.  

I think it depends on the type of year he has. I could see them being hesitant if he has continued back issues.

[Warfarin]

3 minutes ago, Cosmo_Kramer said:

I think it depends on the type of year he has. I could see them being hesitant if he has continued back issues.

Good point.  That said, I'd be willing to roll the dice on him and sign him to a long deal if the Dodgers pass.  It's risky, but he is someone I'd definitely be okay overpaying for.  If/when he starts declining, Pujols' contract should be done, so we can absorb the mediocrity at that point.   Having a top of the rotation of Kershaw, Richards, and Ohtani, to go with our elite defensive and above average offense, would make us instant World Series contenders.

[Cosmo_Kramer]

1 minute ago, Warfarin said:

Good point.  That said, I'd be willing to roll the dice on him and sign him to a long deal if the Dodgers pass.  It's risky, but he is someone I'd definitely be okay overpaying for.  If/when he starts declining, Pujols' contract should be done, so we can absorb the mediocrity at that point.   Having a top of the rotation of Kershaw, Richards, and Ohtani, to go with our elite defensive and above average offense, would make us instant World Series contenders.

Assuming Richards has a full, healthy year, I doubt we'd be able to resign him in addition to signing Kershaw.

I like the idea of signing Kershaw, but if he also has a full, healthy year, he probably gets $250M+.

[Warfarin]

Just now, Cosmo_Kramer said:

Assuming Richards has a full, healthy year, I doubt we'd be able to resign him in addition to signing Kershaw.

I like the idea of signing Kershaw, but if he also has a full, healthy year, he probably gets $250M+.

Yeah, you're most likely right, but it's fun to pencil them in together in a rotation.

That said, if Ohtani does deliver on the #1/#2 projection, then having a duo of Kershaw / Ohtani will be pretty robust, with Heaney, Skaggs, Shoemaker, etc filling out the rotation.

[Cosmo_Kramer]

Just now, Warfarin said:

Yeah, you're most likely right, but it's fun to pencil them in together in a rotation.

That said, if Ohtani does deliver on the #1/#2 projection, then having a duo of Kershaw / Ohtani will be pretty robust, with Heaney, Skaggs, Shoemaker, etc filling out the rotation.

True. I think I'd prefer Machado if we make a big splash though. Elite elite elite defense, with an above average bat, no health concerns, and youth. I think he'll get a contract in the same range as Kershaw.

[Warfarin]

1 minute ago, Cosmo_Kramer said:

True. I think I'd prefer Machado if we make a big splash though. Elite elite elite defense, with an above average bat, no health concerns, and youth. I think he'll get a contract in the same range as Kershaw.

Machado's attitude worries me a little bit.  Something about the way he carries himself seems a bit suboptimal.  He'd fit in nicely with our team as you mentioned, and the beauty of having Cozart is we can just shift him over to 2B as Machado takes over 3B.  We'd also, incidentally, have 3 guys who can play SS. Talk about versatility.. haha.

[Cosmo_Kramer]

7 minutes ago, Warfarin said:

Machado's attitude worries me a little bit.  Something about the way he carries himself seems a bit suboptimal.  He'd fit in nicely with our team as you mentioned, and the beauty of having Cozart is we can just shift him over to 2B as Machado takes over 3B.  We'd also, incidentally, have 3 guys who can play SS. Talk about versatility.. haha.

I'm sure it's not easy playing for Baltimore these days. But yeah, Cozart was such a prefect signing. Machado or Donaldson would be a great fit.

[Troll Daddy]

10 hours ago, Warfarin said:

Good point.  That said, I'd be willing to roll the dice on him and sign him to a long deal if the Dodgers pass.  It's risky, but he is someone I'd definitely be okay overpaying for.  If/when he starts declining, Pujols' contract should be done, so we can absorb the mediocrity at that point.   Having a top of the rotation of Kershaw, Richards, and Ohtani, to go with our elite defensive and above average offense, would make us instant World Series contenders.

There’s always the possibility that Kershaw may  not opt out of his current deal or sign a extension. I’m betting he will play his whole career for the Dodgers. 

[floplag]

17 hours ago, Stradling said:

I will put money on it that he won’t get close to $30 million a season.  

I don't think he gets even 20. 

Why are people working so hard on trades for the Gerrit Coles of the world and giving up prospects and such over signing these guys if they are that awesome?   Answer,  lower cost.  Hou cant afford more big money guys, most teams cant or wont.  

Darvish is clearly the top FA in the market right now in my view, and hes still out there mid Jan.   He and Arrietta are going to have to take less in dollars or years unless someone gets desperate, and i dont see who that might be right now.   Maybe the chowds if NY gets Cole or something idk.  

The luxury tax has definitely become a soft cap of sorts, thats obvious when even the wealthiest of teams wont absorb it for an extended period.   The Dodgers could have without blinking, and didnt, that says something.