MLB Trade Rumors: Top 50 FAs with Predictions

[totdprods]

1 hour ago, Erstad Grit said:

They have us in on multiple 1B. I don't see that happening. 

The only reason I think it may come to fruition is because there are so many 1B options available and their market has been very depressed in recent years. 
Of those options, most have a floor way below and a ceiling way above what Cron has done, but their median is right on par with a Cron season, so it may be time to buy something more established if the price is right.

[Erstad Grit]

1 hour ago, totdprods said:

Absolutely! A lot of Norris' negative perception is because he blew up in the most dramatic ways in the worst possible times, which will 1) hurt his image and value and 2) possibly knock him out of the 'closer' range and 'closer' money.

Now...
Bud Norris pitched in 60 games this year (including 3 starts; remember, Eppler wants multi-inning relievers) - here are his combined stats in 55 of those, 92% of his appearances. 
55 games, 59.2 IP: 43 hits, 21 walks, 4 home runs, 72 strikeouts, and a 1.09 ERA, 1.07 WHIP. 
That's a K9 of 10.9
That's a H9 of 6.5
That's a HR9 of 0.6
Walks were a little high, but nothing too dangerous.

If you can get him back on a one or two year deal for a few million, and don't count on him as a closer, how could you not want a reliever who could do something like that 90% of the time? It's not often a reliever gives up two game-winning grand slams in the same week, but events like that will dramatically skew numbers. He's worth the risk again, if the price is right.
 

Do you buy the argument that Bud agreed to start (thus losing his incentives)  to increase his value? 

His grand slams meltdowns left a bad taste in my mouth. However the first 1/2 of the season he picked up the entire bullpen on his shoulders.

Your point that it's good news both were left out of the top 50 is dead on. 

 

[Erstad Grit]

55 minutes ago, totdprods said:

The only reason I think it may come to fruition is because there are so many 1B options available and their market has been very depressed in recent years. 
Of those options, most have a floor way below and a ceiling way above what Cron has done, but their median is right on par with a Cron season, so it may be time to buy something more established if the price is right.

I see Valbuena taking on that role while acquiring a 3B. 

HOTSTOVE!!!!!!

[totdprods]

14 minutes ago, Erstad Grit said:

Do you buy the argument that Bud agreed to start (thus losing his incentives)  to increase his value? 

His grand slams meltdowns left a bad taste in my mouth. However the first 1/2 of the season he picked up the entire bullpen on his shoulders.

Your point that it's good news both were left out of the top 50 is dead on. 

Seeing guys like Shaw and Morrow get tagged with predictions like 3 years and $7-8m annually and even the relievers listed in the 40's with numbers like 2/$12m gives me hope you may be able to bring Petit and Norris back both on 1 or two year deals at $4m-6m per. Worth the gamble. 

I totally buy that Bud agreed to start to boost his value and versatility on the FA market. Makes perfect sense to me. He's not really old and isn't far removed from being a decent back-of-rotation guy. Extreme example, but look at Rich Hill was able to do. Even if teams don't buy him as a starting pitcher option, look at all the value being placed on a reliever who can throw 2+ innings nowadays. 

If you can get either Petit or Norris on a deal, I think you have to do it. Otherwise you're banking on...
1) Bedrosian, Middleton, Paredes, and a journeyman Parker to hold the pen together
2) A free agent class that doesn't really offer any options that are assuredly better (or at least as good value) as what Petit and Norris provided and may provide again)
3) Eppler and Co. replicating the exact same formulas they used to find these arms in the first place. 

If #3 could be achieved and Petit and Norris are asking too much, then by all means, move on.

[ukyah]

On 11/2/2017 at 12:59 PM, krAbs said:

I would be SHOCKED if this was right, after what Eppler and Upton have been saying today.

what did they say?

 

[ukyah]

On 11/2/2017 at 1:18 PM, totdprods said:

If these predicted terms ring true, I'd take any of these guys at these rates:

Carlos Santana 3/$45m

Eduardo Nunez 2/$14m

Tyler Chatwood 3/$20m

Jarrod Dyson 2/$12m

Tony Watson 2/$12m

Jason Vargas 1/$10m

Michael Pineda 2/$6m

Miles Mikolas: 2/$10m

I am surprised and encouraged that neither Petit or Norris were in the Top 50. 

shit, man. sign all dem mutherfuckers.

the longest contract there is 3 years. at that point i don't even care what the total dollars are.

[totdprods]

2 minutes ago, ukyah said:

shit, man. sign all dem mutherfuckers.

the longest contract there is 3 years. at that point i don't even care what the total dollars are.

It is pretty crazy that all of those names and terms come out to $69m in annual commitment. 

[ukyah]

Just now, totdprods said:

It is pretty crazy that all of those names and terms come out to $69m in annual commitment. 

i don't even know who miles mikolas is, but if he's got to come along with the rest, then so be it.

[totdprods]

5 minutes ago, ukyah said:

i don't even know who miles mikolas is, but if he's got to come along with the rest, then so be it.

Haha - was a nondescript major league long reliever who went to Japan and has dominated the last two or three years with a 2.00 something ERA and sub 1.00 WHIP. Only 29, 6'5" righty. Strikes me as an Eppler type guy who could be solid depth for pen and rotation.

If he was Colby Lewis 2.0, at that price, he'd be okay at the back of a rotation. 

[beatlesrule]

On 11/2/2017 at 1:55 PM, totdprods said:

Subtract Maybin and Revere and the Angels are losing 50 SB.

Gordon makes too much sense. He brings speed, defense, high contact, fills a position, hits left-handed, and will cost more in money than prospects.

Plus, he just turned 16 so he can drive himself around now.

 

[Angel Oracle]

8 hours ago, Erstad Grit said:

They have us in on multiple 1B. I don't see that happening. 

Yep, it’s not like Cron is garbage.   He simply needs to FINALLY put a full solid season together at age 28!

[Second Base]

I'm in the minority here, but I'd love it if they brought in Yonder Alonso. He reworked his swing. The power and discipline are real. We could sign him and platoon him with Valbuena (counterintuitive but reverse platoon splits), and trade Cron away for something. 

Short term deal like this positions us well to allow Thaiss to take over at 3B as soon as he's ready without being blocked. 

It makes sense.

[Blarg]

Thaiss is not a third baseman, he was a catcher converted to 1st base and barely passable at that in A ball. This would be a Trumbo expirament putting him on third. 

[eligrba]

Hosmer or Santana would be nice.

[Bruce Nye]

I din't like Alonso.  I doubt he'll ever have stats like he did in 2017.  The Angels have other needs.

[Inside Pitch]

14 hours ago, Scotty@AW said:

I'm in the minority here, but I'd love it if they brought in Yonder Alonso. He reworked his swing. The power and discipline are real. We could sign him and platoon him with Valbuena (counterintuitive but reverse platoon splits), and trade Cron away for something. 

Short term deal like this positions us well to allow Thaiss to take over at 3B as soon as he's ready without being blocked. 

It makes sense.

Alonso had one stupidly crazy month where he hit 10 HRs and slugged .800.  Then he went back to being the same guy he's been his entire career.   His second half OPS was .774 -- with a .420 SLG%.    He's also someone who completely gets neutralized when facing LHPs.

Cron and all his warts posted an OPS of .838 the second half with a SLG% of .512.

If this team is going to spend money, it's my hope they spend it on people who are clear upgrades.  Alonso is a meh....

[tdawg87]

Alonso is basically Thaiss' floor AND ceiling. Pre-2017 Alonso is the floor. 2017 is the ceiling. 

[ukyah]

16 hours ago, Scotty@AW said:

I'm in the minority here, but I'd love it if they brought in Yonder Alonso. He reworked his swing. The power and discipline are real. We could sign him and platoon him with Valbuena (counterintuitive but reverse platoon splits), and trade Cron away for something. 

Short term deal like this positions us well to allow Thaiss to take over at 3B as soon as he's ready without being blocked. 

It makes sense.

 

didn't he tank in the second half of the season? i remember reading that.

edit: what inside pitch said.

[totdprods]

3 hours ago, Inside Pitch said:

Alonso had one stupidly crazy month where he hit 10 HRs and slugged .800.  Then he went back to being the same guy he's been his entire career.   His second half OPS was .774 -- with a .420 SLG%.    He's also someone who completely gets neutralized when facing LHPs.

Cron and all his warts posted an OPS of .838 the second half with a SLG% of .512.

If this team is going to spend money, it's my hope they spend it on people who are clear upgrades.  Alonso is a meh....

Yeah I don't buy that he can replicate his '17 season...but...if you take out that crazy month where he slugged .800, he still put up a real solid  .261/.354/.451/.806 slash with 19 doubles and 18 home runs in 122 games. 

And for the most part, he maintained that slash throughout the year, which leads some credence to the belief he figured something out.
April/March: .279/.355/.515/.870
May: .303/.425/.803/1.228
June: .267/.353/.433/.786
July: .227/.346/.443/.789
August: .270/.357/.405/.763
Sept./Oct: .262/.360/.462/.822

Cron definitely has had enough consistency issues that even if Alonso regressed down to a .250/.350/.450 guy I'd be interested on a reasonable deal. Being left-handed helps too. 

I said this in another thread but it applies here too - there are enough FA 1B types out there who have had seasons bottom out way worse than Cron, but also had seasons far better than Cron, and at the end of the day, most are delivering a season that is right in line with a typical Cron year. If the price is right, I'd be fine replacing him, but only if the price is right. I'm sure Cron could return a decent AAA 2B prospect like Tyler Wade, RP comparable to a Middleton/Paredes, or a SP along the lines of a Tropeano/Bridwell/Ramirez type, and that's money we don't need to spend via FA to fill that depth out.
 

[Inside Pitch]

30 minutes ago, totdprods said:

Yeah I don't buy that he can replicate his '17 season...but...if you take out that crazy month where he slugged .800, he still put up a real solid  .261/.354/.451/.806 slash with 19 doubles and 18 home runs in 122 games. 

And for the most part, he maintained that slash throughout the year, which leads some credence to the belief he figured something out.
April/March: .279/.355/.515/.870
May: .303/.425/.803/1.228
June: .267/.353/.433/.786
July: .227/.346/.443/.789
August: .270/.357/.405/.763
Sept./Oct: .262/.360/.462/.822

Cron definitely has had enough consistency issues that even if Alonso regressed down to a .250/.350/.450 guy I'd be interested on a reasonable deal. Being left-handed helps too. 

I said this in another thread but it applies here too - there are enough FA 1B types out there who have had seasons bottom out way worse than Cron, but also had seasons far better than Cron, and at the end of the day, most are delivering a season that is right in line with a typical Cron year. If the price is right, I'd be fine replacing him, but only if the price is right. I'm sure Cron could return a decent AAA 2B prospect like Tyler Wade, RP comparable to a Middleton/Paredes, or a SP along the lines of a Tropeano/Bridwell/Ramirez type, and that's money we don't need to spend via FA to fill that depth out.
 

Thats just it -- his 17 season completely alters the perception of who he is as a player.

Alonso's career OPS prior 2010-2016 was .721 -- Career SLG% over that span -- .387. and an OPS+ of 103.   I'd steer clear of anyone his age having a big breakout in power numbers in a season where the ball wasn't right.  BTW, regressing to a .450 OPS is still projecting quite a bit more out of him than he's shown -- his three year sample puts his OPS at .764 with a .418 SLG% and that includes his outlier numbers this year.  He's just not a clear upgrade over what we have currently.  

When it's all said and done his 2017 is not at all indicative of the player he's been and shouldn't be used as the basis for any expectations IMO

[totdprods]

2 hours ago, Inside Pitch said:

Thats just it -- his 17 season completely alters the perception of who he is as a player.

Alonso's career OPS prior 2010-2016 was .721 -- Career SLG% over that span -- .387. and an OPS+ of 103.   I'd steer clear of anyone his age having a big breakout in power numbers in a season where the ball wasn't right.  BTW, regressing to a .450 OPS is still projecting quite a bit more out of him than he's shown -- his three year sample puts his OPS at .764 with a .418 SLG% and that includes his outlier numbers this year.  He's just not a clear upgrade over what we have currently.  

When it's all said and done his 2017 is not at all indicative of the player he's been and shouldn't be used as the basis for any expectations IMO

Like with many of these imperfect players, it comes down to cost.
Career numbers for both - excluding Yonder's 'breakout' 2017.
.262/.307/.449/.756, 108 OPS+ for Crons, with 102 games, 17 doubles, 15 homers on average - only 18 walks and 78 strikeouts.
.269/.334/.387/.721, 103 OPS+ for Yonder with 95 games, 18 doubles, 6 homers, and 30 walks to 48 strikeouts.

If you're into the WAR thing, Cron has averaged 0.7 WAR a year. Up until Alonso's 'breakout' 2017, he averaged 0.8 WAR a year. 

For the most part, these guys aren't too different - except Cron has some power compared to Yonder. Yonder walks twice as much as strikes out half as much. That fits better with Eppler's vision of improving OBP and reducing strikeouts. So, that's a plus Yonder has over Cron. And again, this is without even factoring in his 2017 numbers. Plus he's left-handed. 

As for the power....perhaps Alonso's was a fluke in '17, but we've upped power at LF already and have room to improve at 3B and 2B still, considering we didn't get much power from either last year, so we could sacrifice at bit at first....again, if Alonso regresses to his norm. If he's turned the corner, hey, cherry on top.

The biggest check in the box for me for Alonso? Consistency, especially with OBP.
Over his career (roughly 120-150 games played in each month)
Mar./Apr.: ..246/.309/.365/.674 (slow starter, like Cron)
May: .281/.357/.461/.818
June: .265/.330/.374/.704
July: .267/.351/.416/.766
Aug.: .280/.348/.416/.765
Sep./Oct.: .272/.346/.411/.757

Not much variation there - he's pretty solid throughout the year.

Cron is pretty obvious - he's a second half player (about 50-70 games played in career in each month, except Sept./Oct., where he has 103 GP):
Mar./Apr.: .224/.282/.302/.584
May: .262/.291/.439/.730
June: .254/.305/.446/.752
July: .298/.337/.550/.886
Aug.: .322/.369/.573/.942
Sep./Oct.: .229/.276/.402/.678

So, if Alonso costs only 2/$22m, you're getting, at worst, the same player Cron has been his entire career - but one that is also more consistent, fits the Angels desired player more closely, and is coming off the best year of his life, while Cron is coming off his worst. 

Not my first choice, but not the worst choice, if the price is right. And keep in mind, Cron probably has enough trade value to fill another need - depthy AAA SP, a decent RP, or an unheralded, league-average 2B type. The extra money we're paying for Alonso to replace Cron could be negated by whatever money we save on a cheap Cron trade return.

A little off-topic, but the Mariners traded Boog Powell for a month of Yonder Alonso; Boog put up 1 WAR and a .282/.358/.402/.760 OPS+ 107 season in the bigs. Mentioning because that could be the type of player Cron returns in a trade, and that would be a nice 4th OF. Our 4th OF, Revere, cost $5m last year, which makes up most of the difference between Cron's projected '18 arb. salary and Alonso's predicted '18 $11m annual salary. Also, lol at Dipoto.

 

[ukyah]

looking at those obp numbers, you've convinced me that he's exactly the type of player eppler has said he's looking for. mix in the fact that he's not going to break the bank and i think the angels are very likely to make a strong run at him.

[tdawg87]

Booger Power

[totdprods]

54 minutes ago, ukyah said:

looking at those obp numbers, you've convinced me that he's exactly the type of player eppler has said he's looking for. mix in the fact that he's not going to break the bank and i think the angels are very likely to make a strong run at him.

Carlos Santana is still high, high atop my 1B wishlist, but a cheap Yonder Alonso - in the context of other improvements at two of 2B, 3B, or UT IF - would not bother me too much. 

I'd be happy with Cron too, but the inconsistency he's shown has been extremely frustrating. After 4 years in the majors, you shouldn't need a AAA reboot every year to start hitting. The fact that he still rarely walks, is limited to one position, and is a bit redundant in his right-handedness, all while not being a plus-power bat despite that being his called card, is getting tiresome. I want to believe he can break out, but his 99 OPS+ last year is shameful and it was a step back for him. And it isn't bad luck - his BAbip has been extremely consistent, fluctuating between .293-.302 in each of his years in the bigs. 

In Alonso, and even in Duda, Bruce, Logan Morrison, I see players who at their norm should produce a typical Cron season, and any of them could very well exceed that mark. If they come cheap, sure, why not.

Maybe the Yanks will take Cron for Tyler Wade? The Rangers for Profar? (eek)

[arch stanton]

With a good 2B to lead off and a decent platoon partner for Valbuena at 3rd then Cron should be acceptable and save some resources for contingencies