AngelsWin.com Today: Exploring an Angels-Giancarlo Stanton trade

[totdprods]

53 minutes ago, Stradling said:

Everyone including Calhoun in this deal, are you suggesting to do this trade in the off season?  If you aren't, have you heard one mention of Kole clearing waivers, because I haven't.  If he hasn't cleared waivers he can't be traded.  

Personally, I don't think Stanton is dealt until the offseason. The sale of the Marlins is still too green (has it even finalized?) and it'll be easier for both teams to make all the pieces work with the freedom of the offseason - just feels like it will be too massive of a trade in so many ways to try and pull off for a contending team with only a couple weeks until last day of playoff roster eligibility. 

From a PR standpoint, I think the Marlins (and their new owners) will have an easier time handling the trade of Stanton by doing it in the offseason so the backlash isn't as sudden, and so they have opportunity to make the rest of whatever their new vision will be work. If they're going to kick off a true rebuild by dealing Stanton, they'll have the freedom to start moving other pieces (without the waiver constraints) right away and start showing their fans that they're targeting a White Sox style rebuild. 

If I were the Marlins though, I wouldn't undergo a full rebuild. They still have a lot of good, young players without Stanton under control affordably for sometime. They should build around Yelich, Ozuna, Riddle, Realmuto, Bour and do everything they can to shed Stanton, Prado, Gordon, Ziegler, Tazawa, and Chen or Volquez when able and use that freed up money to lock in some stop-gap vets. The core is good enough that they could compete with some luck in 2018 still, and if their good young team is winning, the loss of Stanton won't matter to their attendance/fanbase. If they get stuck in a middling cycle for a couple years, they can quietly deal away Ozuna here, Yelich there, and pump some prospects back into their farm. Free of Stanton's massive obligation, they can then strike for a big splash in a couple years.

[totdprods]

Yelich (25) under contract for $43m through 2021 (and has a $15m option for 2022)
Ozuna (26) is controlled via arb. through 2019
Riddle (25) still has six seasons of control.
Realmuto (26) is controlled via arb. through 2020.
Bour (29) is controlled via arb. through 2020.

That's a really good, really affordable, really extendable core for Marlins new ownership to play with, and it would be a terrible waste for them to go into a full rebuild now and squander all of these years of cheap control of comparably aged players. They could flip them all for prospects, but you're putting that team into a position where they may not compete for 3-5 years, and why would they wait that long when they have so many good, cheap, ~25 year old players now?

It makes the most sense for them to follow something comparable to what the Angels have done the last couple seasons. Fill needs with short-term commitments that are cheap to acquire and roll the dice that they get some good fortune and push for the WC, all while building up the farm.

The only way they can do that is if they clear a lot of payroll. 
We all know Stanton has ~$300m ahead. 
But Gordon, Prado, Ziegler, Tazawa, Chen, and Volquez have $150m still attached to them too. That's nearly a half billion dollars right there. Marlins ownership can't really do anything until those guys are off the books, which will take another 2-3 years. 

Volquez and Chen are both injured to the point where they may contribute nothing on the remainder of their contracts , Ziegler and Tazawa are earning ~$16m next year alone and were awful this year, and Gordon and Prado are just a step above an average player, at best.  They aren't going to get anything of value for those players in this trade market.

I don't really think they have a choice - they have to deal Stanton at some point soon, and they are going to benefit just as much saving money as they would acquiring prospects. 

This is where I think the Angels have a huge advantage (and leverage) over Miami - they can slot Dee Gordon into 2B, Martin Prado at 3B (or bench CIF), and even take a reliever to stash as pen depth and save Miami an even more enormous amount of money. How do the Angels take advantage of that, I don't know. Do they have Miami cover more salary? Do they give Miami fewer (if any?) real prospects in return? Do the Angels try and use that value to ask for Yelich as well and kick a couple prospects or Calhoun back? Calhoun would slot in nicely in place of Yelich and keep them in contention. The Marlins are very short on pitching - maybe we throw a couple of our depth arms their way (Ramirez, Tropeano, Richards)?

[krAbs]

i'm assuming that would suck up most of the budget freed up by hamilton coming off the books, which isn't the end of the world. anyone know how much money we would have left to fix the infield (specifically left)?

 

The thought of stanton batting behind trout, with a rotation of richards, heaney, skaggs, meyer, and bridwell/tropiano...dang.

[ettin]

2 hours ago, stormngt said:

I know this is off topic but this is concerning.  Based on your evaluation of WAR, a player with 1.0 average over a ten year career should be paid 100 million dollars.  That is scary.

No one would ever give out a 10 year contract to a 1 WAR player.

EDIT: Remember that $10M/WAR free agent figure is an average from all free agent contracts. Which means that top tier players like Stanton are getting $30M plus in free agency while a low-end free agent reliever might get $3M per season. There are more low-end types than high-end types so when you average it out you get $10M or so.

Edited August 18, 2017 by ettin

[ettin]

1 hour ago, totdprods said:

Yelich (25) under contract for $43m through 2021 (and has a $15m option for 2022)
Ozuna (26) is controlled via arb. through 2019
Riddle (25) still has six seasons of control.
Realmuto (26) is controlled via arb. through 2020.
Bour (29) is controlled via arb. through 2020.

That's a really good, really affordable, really extendable core for Marlins new ownership to play with, and it would be a terrible waste for them to go into a full rebuild now and squander all of these years of cheap control of comparably aged players. They could flip them all for prospects, but you're putting that team into a position where they may not compete for 3-5 years, and why would they wait that long when they have so many good, cheap, ~25 year old players now?

It makes the most sense for them to follow something comparable to what the Angels have done the last couple seasons. Fill needs with short-term commitments that are cheap to acquire and roll the dice that they get some good fortune and push for the WC, all while building up the farm.

The only way they can do that is if they clear a lot of payroll. 
We all know Stanton has ~$300m ahead. 
But Gordon, Prado, Ziegler, Tazawa, Chen, and Volquez have $150m still attached to them too. That's nearly a half billion dollars right there. Marlins ownership can't really do anything until those guys are off the books, which will take another 2-3 years. 

Volquez and Chen are both injured to the point where they may contribute nothing on the remainder of their contracts , Ziegler and Tazawa are earning ~$16m next year alone and were awful this year, and Gordon and Prado are just a step above an average player, at best.  They aren't going to get anything of value for those players in this trade market.

I don't really think they have a choice - they have to deal Stanton at some point soon, and they are going to benefit just as much saving money as they would acquiring prospects. 

This is where I think the Angels have a huge advantage (and leverage) over Miami - they can slot Dee Gordon into 2B, Martin Prado at 3B (or bench CIF), and even take a reliever to stash as pen depth and save Miami an even more enormous amount of money. How do the Angels take advantage of that, I don't know. Do they have Miami cover more salary? Do they give Miami fewer (if any?) real prospects in return? Do the Angels try and use that value to ask for Yelich as well and kick a couple prospects or Calhoun back? Calhoun would slot in nicely in place of Yelich and keep them in contention. The Marlins are very short on pitching - maybe we throw a couple of our depth arms their way (Ramirez, Tropeano, Richards)?

If the Angels somehow managed to obtain Stanton, Gordon, and Barraclough without giving up a terrible prospect price I think I'd be ecstatic (I'm not a fan of Gordon but the other two, yes please).

[Dave Saltzer]

2 hours ago, Stradling said:

Everyone including Calhoun in this deal, are you suggesting to do this trade in the off season?  If you aren't, have you heard one mention of Kole clearing waivers, because I haven't.  If he hasn't cleared waivers he can't be traded.  

I haven't heard a word about Calhoun clearing waivers. But, we never hear about any players that clear waivers either, unless some reporter leaks it, like Stanton. I do know that most teams now try to put almost every player on waivers to start the discussions for the off season, and to possibly clear waivers. And, I do know that the Angels could still try to put Calhoun through on waivers. So, it wouldn't be impossible to do the deal now, assuming Calhoun has or will clear waivers. You are right that it would be easier to do in the off-season, but, getting Stanton now would help us a lot more for this season. So, I'd prefer it to be done now. 

[Dave Saltzer]

2 hours ago, stormngt said:

I know this is off topic but this is concerning.  Based on your evaluation of WAR, a player with 1.0 average over a ten year career should be paid 100 million dollars.  That is scary.

No. Remember, that's the price (although I think that number is a bit high) to pay for 1 WAR on the FA market. Until then, there are some price controls on it. But yeah, it's still scary sick money. 

[DMVol]

8 minutes ago, Dave Saltzer said:

I haven't heard a word about Calhoun clearing waivers. But, we never hear about any players that clear waivers either, unless some reporter leaks it, like Stanton. I do know that most teams now try to put almost every player on waivers to start the discussions for the off season, and to possibly clear waivers. And, I do know that the Angels could still try to put Calhoun through on waivers. So, it wouldn't be impossible to do the deal now, assuming Calhoun has or will clear waivers. You are right that it would be easier to do in the off-season, but, getting Stanton now would help us a lot more for this season. So, I'd prefer it to be done now. 

No way Calhoun would clear waivers....he's controllable on a reasonable contract.....you could always trade a minor league guy not on the 40 man and "a player to be named later", which could be Calhoun.....problem would be that word would leak out about who the player to be named is and Calhoun is still on the team....that said, I agree, Stanton now would be huge, rather than waiting to the offseason....could be similar to Manny with the Dogs, pushed them to the playoffs....

 

[totdprods]

3 minutes ago, Dave Saltzer said:

No. Remember, that's the price (although I think that number is a bit high) to pay for 1 WAR on the FA market. Until then, there are some price controls on it. But yeah, it's still scary sick money. 

Could this also mean that the formula used to compute WAR is starting to lose its accuracy, or at least it's weight?

[totdprods]

20 minutes ago, ettin said:

If the Angels somehow managed to obtain Stanton, Gordon, and Barraclough without giving up a terrible prospect price I think I'd be ecstatic (I'm not a fan of Gordon but the other two, yes please).

You may be able to pull in a cheap, good player like Barraclough if you take on enough salary or throw something back at Miami. 

I'm not crazy about Dee Gordon either but it'd be very easy for the Angels to take him on and fill a need. His contract is not nearly as bad for the Halos as it is for Miami and by subtracting it it would really work in the Angels favor.

 

[TroutField]

If they could pull off the trade while staying away from our outfield crop in the minors I would be 100% for it. There is no pitcher, infielder, or catcher in the minors I would be upset losing for Stanton. Possibly a package of Thaiss, Ward or Perez, and Barria? 

Jones, Marsh, and Addell need to be kept. 

[TroutField]

Is this a real rumor or are we getting all hot and bothered for no reason ? 

[totdprods]

6 minutes ago, TroutField said:

Is this a real rumor or are we getting all hot and bothered for no reason ? 

I don't think it's a concrete rumor yet, but there's enough murmurs of interest and feasibility that it is worth speculating about.

[SlappyUtilityMIF]

32 minutes ago, TroutField said:

Is this a real rumor or are we getting all hot and bothered for no reason ? 

 

25 minutes ago, totdprods said:

I don't think it's a concrete rumor yet, but there's enough murmurs of interest and feasibility that it is worth speculating about.

It kind of aligns with Eppler's thought process in deals made for today and the future. Similar to the Simmons deal of a young player under a long term contract that currently and into the future they could become a bargain under their old deals. Having Stanton in RF and moving Kole to Left would also solve our Left Field issues... You would think Kole would have to be added to the deal along with an assortment of prospects.

But, damn! That's a long time with his history of lower half injuries as well.... You would almost believe his option wouldn't be picked up in 2028. And he may not opt out also in 2020. But, if he were you are almost guaranteed Draft pick compensation (unless you sign a type A FA) for 2 1/4 years of playing time. 

2018	28	Miami Marlins	$25,000,000
2019	29	Miami Marlins	$26,000,000
2020	30	Miami Marlins	$26,000,000		may opt out of contract following 2020 season
2021	31	Miami Marlins	$29,000,000
2022	32	Miami Marlins	$29,000,000
2023	33	Miami Marlins	$32,000,000
2024	34	Miami Marlins	$32,000,000
2025	35	Miami Marlins	$32,000,000
2026	36	Miami Marlins	$29,000,000
2027	37	Miami Marlins	$25,000,000
2028	38	Miami Marlins	*$25,000,000		$25M Team Option, $10M Buyout
		Earliest Free Agent: 2028

 

I would also want a Left handed bat in a 3Bman to put in the middle of them though!.... For some lineup flexibility and not overly right handed dominant. But, if you could add Gordon then your speed at the top of the order remains since you wouldn't need to resign Maybin unless Calhoun was added to the deal. Move Cowart to 3B and your lefty is your lead off hitter in Gordon! I love those slappy quick dudes.... I would still like another Lefty bat though even if Gordon was added... A 1Bman? and move Cron.

Maybe, there has been some mention that AP#5 is considering playing season to season with his foot issues. He's hit #600 and everything else he is guaranteed to be a HoF'er what else other than $$$ is there to play for since he will not get to the HR record.

[Angel Oracle]

25 minutes ago, TroutField said:

If they could pull off the trade while staying away from our outfield crop in the minors I would be 100% for it. There is no pitcher, infielder, or catcher in the minors I would be upset losing for Stanton. Possibly a package of Thaiss, Ward or Perez, and Barria? 

Jones, Marsh, and Addell need to be kept. 

One of those 3 OFers has to be included.   With Trout and Stanton already in the OF, where are the other 3 going to play?  You can't expect the Fish to trade their franchise OF, and not get a solid OF prospect in return.

Marsh is too young to DH.

[totdprods]

Purely speaking dollars and cents though, Stanton's contract isn't really different than Hamilton's and we've afforded him for 5 years. Figure there's a good chance Stanton opts out too. 

Yeah Stanton's is a lot longer, but it's not like Pujols is running along that entire time too. 

We were handcuffed by the Hamilton contract, yes, but that wasn't the sole reason we weren't able to improve the team. Wilson and Weaver were eating up payroll too, Dipoto couldn't find talent cheaply, and we didn't have a farm to lean on. Those factors shouldn't be present the next few years.

[totdprods]

3 minutes ago, Angel Oracle said:

One of those 3 OFers has to be included.   With Trout and Stanton already in the OF, where are the other 3 going to play?

Marsh is too young to DH.

I don't think any of them have to be dealt for Stanton, but including one wouldn't be the end of the world.

[SlappyUtilityMIF]

1 hour ago, DMVol said:

No way Calhoun would clear waivers....he's controllable on a reasonable contract.....you could always trade a minor league guy not on the 40 man and "a player to be named later", which could be Calhoun.....problem would be that word would leak out about who the player to be named is and Calhoun is still on the team....that said, I agree, Stanton now would be huge, rather than waiting to the offseason....could be similar to Manny with the Dogs, pushed them to the playoffs....

 

That is exactly how it would be done if he was a part of it.... That way you could move him or Stanton to LF and make a run at it! Then once its open again for non-waivers deals. You send him to the Marlins as the PTBNL

[Chuck]

Would you do this deal if the Marlins paid for his next 4 years, but we had to take on the rest and include Adell? 

[totdprods]

1 minute ago, Chuckster70 said:

Would you do this deal if the Marlins paid for his next 4 years, but we had to take on the rest and include Adell? 

Yup.

[VariousCrap]

On Twitter yesterday, a person asked Fletcher if he thinks there is any chance the Angels will trade for Stanton.

His response: "No."

[tdawg87]

5 minutes ago, Chuckster70 said:

Would you do this deal if the Marlins paid for his next 4 years, but we had to take on the rest and include Adell? 

If they paid 4 years I'd give up everything ever.

Problem is, so would several other teams.

[Chuck]

Just now, tdawg87 said:

If they paid 4 years I'd give up everything ever.

Problem is, so would several other teams.

I thought his next 4 years were on the cheap, maybe it's his next 3 years. It's what's after that span where his contract gets incredible expensive. 

[Troll Daddy]

9 minutes ago, Chuckster70 said:

Would you do this deal if the Marlins paid for his next 4 years, but we had to take on the rest and include Adell? 

Never going to happen. Lets say the Marlins paid $77M for years 18-20 and Stanton decides to opt out ... that would be a good deal for giving up Adell. 

[Troll Daddy]

4 minutes ago, VariousCrap said:

On Twitter yesterday, a person asked Fletcher if he thinks there is any chance the Angels will trade for Stanton.

His response: "No."

Eppler wouldn't have made the call ... doesn't he know anything