Next Year's Rotation

[Angelsjunky]

Let's imagine three kinds of starters. The first are very good pitchers, from true aces like Kershaw and Sale to borderline aces and good #2s like Richards (when healthy) or Dan Haren in his better years. That is, #1-2 star pitchers. Then we have the #3-4 types, guys who fill the heart of a rotation: average to good pitchers, like Shoemaker or Vargas. Finally you have rotation filler: #5 pitchers that offer mediocre at best performance, but eat innings - like our dear Chavez and Nolasco. Ideally a championship caliber rotation has a mix of the first two groups, and only dips into the third group if injury strikes.

Then of course there are prospects, which effectively count in that third group in their first year, until proven otherwise.

Now let's push injuries aside for a moment. The talent level of the dozen or so possible 2018 starters that the Angels have under contract or in the high minors next year, fit into these general categories:

Tier One (#1-2 types): Richards

Tier Two (#3-4 types): Skaggs, Heaney, Shoemaker, Meyer, Tropeano

Tier Three (#5 types, prospects): Bridwell, Ramirez, Scribner, Smith, Long, Barria, Canning

On paper, that's a pretty good rotation. Not amazing or even really good, but pretty good - and maybe better, depending upon how certain pitchers develop (for instance, I think Skaggs has #2 potential, and the rest in that group could all be high tier two types, that is #3 types). The big problem, of course, is injury. But on paper, that is a rotation that needs neither significant upgrade nor depth pieces unless the team wants to prioritize a top tier starter. But the problem there is availability, cost, and need. If the Angels go after Darvish--who is tier one--they are then using precious funds that possibly should be directed to areas of greater need: upgrading the offense, 2B, 3B, LF.

This is a follow-up to a conversation the prospects thread, with @totdprods, @ettin, @Scotty@AW, and others.

OK, the rotation. What we don't know right now is how healthy our best starters will be. Five of the team's six best starters are on the DL. All of them are projected to be back either this year or to start next year. But we're faced with needing to see how they do, how they heal up and recover, before having a sense of what can be expected of them in 2018. Best-case scenario and we effectively have a six-man rotation, with Richards, Skaggs, Heaney and Tropeano all starting 25ish games next year, with Shoemaker and Meyer starting 30ish each. But that is rather unlikely to actually happen. Chances are at least one or two go down again with injury.

I see this developing in stages:

1) The first is determining whether these guys are going to be healthy for 2018 or not. Hopefully we'll know within the next two months - or at least have a better idea.

2) If so, then the Angels can stand pat and hope for the best, knowing they have depth to fall back on. If not, then Eppler either signs a starter or two in the offseason, or if he already thinks they won't be, trades for someone in the next two weeks. Go to 3...

3) What do they go after? Well it depends. They can either think big and go after Darvish or Otani or some trade. Or they can go medium and sign someone like Cobb, or another pitcher that slots into tier two. Or they can be clever and try to trade for major league ready prospects.

But here's the key: there's no reason to go for tier three: the Angels already have a ton of that. Chances are some but not all of the top six starters are healthy, which means the Angels will tap into their depth for the rotation, but not all of it - at least not at first. But even then, they'll have backup. I mean, let's say the top six start 100-120 games between them. They then have 40-60 more starts between seven other pitchers (six, really, as Canning probably won't be ready until the end of the year at the earliest). Even if some of these guys go down with injury and/or suck, Eppler can probably find someone to trade for on the market that can eat innings.

So in summary, my view is that Eppler should only acquire a new starting pitcher if one or more of the top six pitchers aren't healing as hoped, and only if that pitcher (or two) is at least mid-rotation caliber. No more Nolascos or Chavezes. We already have that kind of filler (that said, don't be surprised if he looks for more clean peanuts as backup).

 

[Second Base]

Good stuff AJ. I think the only exception I'm seeing here is that Barria, Long and Canning all belong in tier 2 instead of tier 3. There's also a reasonable chance Canning can develop into tier one, or that Barria's Maddux impression plays at the top level.

So I'm more bullish on our pitchers. 

But your assessment and conclusion are accurate. We don't make any SP acquisitions for the next couple years at minimum and focus on hitters. We need to see what becomes of Ramirez, Bridwell, Meyer, Skaggs....

We've built up or acquired all this pitching and now the Angels need to see what they have and can where it can take them.

[Angel Oracle]

Instead of signing a FA pitcher, how about then signing Otani, if coming over to the states?   How much will he cost in salary?  

[totdprods]

3 minutes ago, Scotty@AW said:

Good stuff AJ. I think the only exception I'm seeing here is that Barria, Long and Canning all belong in tier 2 instead of tier 3. There's also a reasonable chance Canning can develop into tier one, or that Barria's Maddux impression plays at the top level.

So I'm more bullish on our pitchers. 

For 2018 they're Tier 2? Already? They may not even pitch in AAA until 2018...

Bullish is fine, I think they're capable of that too, but to expect any of those three to produce at a #3 or good #4 level as soon as next season is a little ambitious. Even the best pitchers need a year or two of experience before they start breaking away from the #4-5 mold. 

Now, '19 and beyond? Totally agree.

[ettin]

Hi AJ,

Generally agree with your placements there in the tiers as right now that is about where they are. I would personally opine that Skaggs, Heaney, and Shoemaker may have the ceilings of a Tier One group (all #2 types max) but for various reasons (Injuries to Skaggs and Heaney, inconsistent performance for Shoe) have not consistently shown it or have not reached it (and may never do so either).

The only thing I disagree with is the conclusion I think. To me the Angels should invest in only a top tier pitcher or a player/prospect that has that ceiling, preferably the former. If you add a Yu Darvish in the off-season it allows you to deal out of your other depth in Tier 2 and 3 for other areas of need. That gives you a potential 1-2 punch of Tier 1 guys with nice options to fill out the other 3 spots. It strengthens the rotation and still helps you in other areas if you trade.

Personally do not feel you can stand pat and not acquire another front-end guy. Nice post.

[ettin]

Also something else that @totdprods mentioned in the pinned thread regarding what is available: As I prepared the Trade Deadline series I looked at virtually every MLB team, their rosters, and available players to discuss in those articles.

One thing I noticed is that front-end pitchers are in really short supply right at this moment and the only real, viable source for the Angels is in free agency this off-season. The Angels probably don't have the quality of prospects to obtain a Michael Fulmer or Chris Archer for instance. Money is the only way the Angels are probably going to find a front-end starter unless Eppler uses his scouting magic and digs up a MLB or prospect gem (and to be frank their aren't too many of those guys either).

This issue (at least in my eyes) combined with our need to add a rotation piece to build depth with a history of injured starters projected to be in our rotation leads me to believe we need that front-end guy and that is where we should invest money in free agency first. Anything else is candy.

I'd rather see payroll allocated to a good SP and then obtain through trade or additional money expenditures the rest of what we need to fill our holes as best we can.

[totdprods]

In my last post on the prospects thread about this, part of my reasoning for investing in a more mid-tier pitcher too was simply the cost difference. Darvish, Arrieta, etc are going to cost a prohibitive amount - the kind that will affect other transactions or really sting should they get hurt or flop. I'd hedge my bet and pin hopes on Richards, Heaney, Skaggs, Shoemaker, or perhaps Meyer reaching their ceiling and becoming that #2 to #1 lite type arm on the cheap. 

On the trade market, we're seeing controllable players have insane value. Presuming all of the guys above stay healthy and we have that sufficient depth, we can pull off a swap for one of our Top 5 for a legit, impact bat (saving FA $$$) and not missing a beat by having a steady vet in the mix still. The FA SP is more about replacing whomever we can deal, as it's one area where we should have surplus of an immensely valuable type of trade bait.

I'm all basing some of these thoughts not totally on what I think or want, but what I expect from this FO. Eppler has continuously focused on adding depth and adding cheap vets, even when they didn't seem imminently needed. Some of that was due to the cards he was dealt, but some of it is part of his MO, I think. 

If our top four can prove they're healthy by all being on the mound by end of Sept, I'll be far more content to turn resources towards other needs, but right now it's still pretty grim. Richards still has a threat of being non-tendered, unless we see some innings before the year is out. Shoemaker's situation is still very murky, and he's counted for 1/3rd of that crops GS over the last two years. Ramirez has never thrown anywhere close to this many innings, Meyer has been fragile as a bird most of his career, Smith has been hurt almost all season, and we all are aware of Skaggs' issues.

I certainly see the upside this group has, but the durability should be a legit concern at this time still, until proven otherwise. 

[wopphil]

We will have like 23 starters, and will probably need every one of them by the second week of the season.

[Second Base]

2 hours ago, totdprods said:

For 2018 they're Tier 2? Already? They may not even pitch in AAA until 2018...

Bullish is fine, I think they're capable of that too, but to expect any of those three to produce at a #3 or good #4 level as soon as next season is a little ambitious. Even the best pitchers need a year or two of experience before they start breaking away from the #4-5 mold. 

Now, '19 and beyond? Totally agree.

We're only talking about 2018?  Man I am missing the ball the last couple days.  Yeah, tier 3 for 2018 with Barria and Long with a shot at tier 2.

[Angelsjunky]

@Scotty@AW, I think what @totdprods is referring to is that in terms of my categories I was talking about next year. I said that prospects could be higher, but we have to start them in Tier 3 until they prove themselves - so yes, I maintain that those guys are Tier 3 next year, with all having a shot at Tier 2 or higher down the road. I could see Barria coming to the majors fully formed and providing #3-4 production, but I'm veering on the side of caution and assuming he's in the Tier 3 group to start.

@totdprods, I hear your point about Eppler going after a Tier 2 guy (and this is also in reply to @ettin). My hesitation about going all in on an ace comes down to what is available - there's no Max Scherzer out there in 2018, and really a true ace like that only becomes available every couple years or so. The best free agent is Yu Darvish, who is very good but seems to have dropped a bit from before his surgery and is now more of a #2 type. Still excellent and he'd greatly improve the team, but at what cost? As the best free agent starter he's going to be paid like a #1. Similarly with Arrieta, who has declined for a couple years now but still might be paid as if he's a #2, when he looks more like a #3.

Tanaka? No thanks. I'd also stay away from a guy like Alex Cobb, whose K-rate has dropped precipitously from his peak in 2013-14. Johnny Cueto is intriguing as he's better than his numbers indicate and might be a nice buy-low option. On the other hand, considering that I don't think he opts out of his remaining 4/$84MM, so if the Angels get him it will probably be through trade.

So as with most years, there just aren't a ton of great options. Actually, this is really a philosophical, or at least strategic question, and my view is that you focus almost entirely on building from within and augment your team with choice and savvy free agents and trades, but by and large stay away from bloated contracts and big name free agents - except for the occasional gem. But don't over-play for free agents just because they're the best available option.

In other words, I'm OK going into 2018 with less certainty but a less bloated payroll and younger team. I want to see this franchise return to perennial contention, and the only way I see that happening is with a focus on farm development first and foremost. Its like I say to my wife when she shops online: only buy what you really love. Better to go without and wait for something really good than be impatient and less than satisfied and, worst of all, end up spending more in the long run.

[Docwaukee]

I like the tiered approach.  

I like Richards in tier 1 but if we're including #2 upside in there, then Heaney and Skaggs belong.  

Tier 1 (true #1 potential) - Richards 

Tier 2 (#2-3 potential for 2018) - Skaggs, Heaney, Meyer

Tier 3 (#4-swing potential for 2018) - the rest.  Could Bridwell or Ramirez turn a corner?  Can Shoe find his old form?  Can Trop do what he was prior to injury?  Do any of the guys with zero minor league innings come out of the gate hot?  I think the answer to all of these questions is possibly but not likely.  

I'm actually fine them going to the dance with what we've already got.  There's enough depth there and I just don't think there's a lot of bang for buck in the FA market.  I really don't want to see us trading from someone unless we're getting a top of the rotation guy.  Something very very unlikely.  

[totdprods]

I'm not quite as high on Tropeano producing right off the bat either. He was allowing a lot of hits and walks, with a WHIP of 1.50 and a FIP well over 5, and had a hard time getting past the 5th inning. 

Don't get me wrong, there's upside and depth and moxie and he also struck out a ton of guys, but I don't think we can expect him to come out of the gate with a sub 4.00 ERA. 

 

[totdprods]

@Angelsjunky, I really don't want them to spend on an ace primarily because I just don't think it's worth it. Arrieta, Darvish, Cueto, Tanaka (eeeeh) all carry too much risk for the cost.

I fully agree that we need a TORP arm and that our clear lack of having one in-house can cause us to want that TORP, but frankly we can't always get what we want or need and we have to settle for a lesser, cost effective option that fills some need but isn't quite the perfect fit (Escobar and defense, Espinosa and strikeouts, Nolasco being Nolasco, Nava and Gentry being paper dolls) and that's why I put so much stock into a mid-tier arm. It's not necessarily what we need, but it will be readily available.

If that arm pitches to their career bests, we're getting someone at least a step better than what we've fielded for two years. If they pitch to their career norms, we are at least getting a comparable bunch of innings which we should have been getting all this time anyways. If they pitch below career norms, at worst we have another Nolasco/Chavez type on the backend, at which point we just dump/trade/or bullpen them when a better prospect is ready. So long as we don't commit too crazy of a contract, it won't hurt us.

Ultimately I just like the roster flexibility a mid-tier arm gives us. It offers us the ability to shop, in theory, an arm like Shoemaker, Skaggs, Richards, Heaney, Ramirez, etc this offseason. It's extremely dependent on their health at this point, but say all are seemingly healthy by end of the year, we could probably land a pretty attractive (and cheap) bat at 3B, 2B, or LF and address a position long-term with one of them, and we should have the prospect depth where it wouldn't crush us. A mid-tier FA SP fills that void at the ML level and gives us innings with likely the same production without having to rush an arm. And by checking off a hitter via trade, it let's us prioritize other bats via FA and gives us bargaining cushion. We won't have to fill every position with FA $$$ right away.

[Angel Oracle]

When are the Halos going to draft or sign solid HEALTHY pitchers?

These past five seasons have been a joke with pitching health!!!!

[Troll Daddy]

You have a better chance picking lotto numbers than picking our next year rotation. 

[Angelsjunky]

You make a good argument, @totdprods. Ultimately I think it comes down to the next couple of months, and what sort of progress we see.

[totdprods]

Thanks @Angelsjunky, same to you. It's not so much that I want them to do this, as it is that I expect them to do this.

Personally I still kinda hope we find some way to trade for a good, controllable SP in the next couple weeks. Sonny Gray was still my hope, but that's looking less realistic. I think we have the prospect depth to pull it off, but it really depends on which prospects are being valued by other clubs. It won't cost big FA $$$ and still meets the needs I mentioned above. They can focus purely on bats and bullpen in offseason and roll with in-house SP.

I just can't recall the last time any team went with a projected Opening Day rotation that didn't include a single SP who had thrown a full season in any prior two seasons. At least no team that considered itself a contender. 

[Angelsjunky]

Good point. But hey, if they pull it off and make the playoffs next year, it will be epic and extra sweet.

But yeah, I think you're right and Eppler probably brings in a solid starter.

[totdprods]

Ideally everyone's back on the mound by end of year and no one else gets hurt. At that point we can go into 2018 with a cheap, healthy rotation in MLB and AAA. In that scenario we could have a quality, controllable SP that would be expendable in trade talks and that is gold right now.

The FA RP class doesn't look very promising. Hopefully whatever processes Eppler applied to finding Petit, Norris, Hernandez, Parker, Ramirez, Bridwell, and even Yates can be replicated. Fortunately, his track record is looking reeeeeally good in that regards. That'd be one hell of fluke luck for all those guys to have worked out.

We will see some guys in the pen. Petit, Hernandez, Norris, Street, and Bailey all are FAs. Alvarez I believe will be out of options, as will be Morin I think, so they're either in the pen or on the waiver claim list. Ramirez is also out of options, and while I imagine he will be around, the fact that he can't be sent down puts him at a bit of risk, especially if he struggles to finish the year. 

So, a lot of our own depth is vanishing or at risk of getting squeezed during this offseason. I expect the SP crop to fill that depth, but if some of those guys start slotting into pen depth, it takes away from the SP depth too. 

I can see Richards and perhaps Shoemaker being floated as relief conversions if they don't quite come back firing on all cylinders. Ramirez is likely headed back to the pen if all our normal SPs are healthy. Bridwell and Trop will likely fill that #6 man role shuttling between SLC, being the first man up for spot starts, serving as long relief, etc.

 

[Dtwncbad]

Can we look at it this way?

The Angels have literally nothing they can count on above tier three.

Is there even one guy you would actually bet real money that they will pitch over 180 innings and have an ERA under 4?

This team so badly needs a horse.

[Stradling]

32 minutes ago, Dtwncbad said:

Can we look at it this way?

The Angels have literally nothing they can count on above tier three.

Is there even one guy you would actually bet real money that they will pitch over 180 innings and have an ERA under 4?

This team so badly needs a horse.

They are in a position to hope for health, plain and simple.  We don't have the type of prospects to go get a number one or two.  With Health, they have three of those guys, maybe four (Richards, Skaggs, Heaney, Shoe).   We don't know what Myers is yet.  Without health, well this is what you're seeing now.  I guess we could spend $120 million to see if Darvish could be that guy.  

[Dtwncbad]

3 minutes ago, Stradling said:

They are in a position to hope for health, plain and simple.  We don't have the type of prospects to go get a number one or two.  With Health, they have three of those guys, maybe four (Richards, Skaggs, Heaney, Shoe).   We don't know what Myers is yet.  Without health, well this is what you're seeing now.  I guess we could spend $120 million to see if Darvish could be that guy.  

In a position to hope for health?

That soinds like wordsmithing to avoid admitting a problem.

It's a problem.

Sure things could all break the Angels way and all these guys could perform.

But sometimes it is fine to just view reality and not "hope". . .since hope is not a plan.

My point is more about just trying to land a healthy 200 inning guy that is not a hack #5 starter with a 5 era.

If Eppler rolled into 2018 without making a move to better secure some rotation stability, I would view that as a failure to address an obvious problem.

 

 

[Stradling]

6 minutes ago, Dtwncbad said:

In a position to hope for health?

That soinds like wordsmithing to avoid admitting a problem.

It's a problem.

Sure things could all break the Angels way and all these guys could perform.

But sometimes it is fine to just view reality and not "hope". . .since hope is not a plan.

My point is more about just trying to land a healthy 200 inning guy that is not a hack #5 starter with a 5 era.

If Eppler rolled into 2018 without making a move to better secure some rotation stability, I would view that as a failure to address an obvious problem.

 

 

No shit it's a problem.  It's a problem only solved with a ton of money and a different kind of hope.  

Would you spend $100+ million on Darvish in hopes he stays healthy and effective?  

As for the 200 innings thing, will there even be 10 guys in the league that pitch 200 innings?

[Dtwncbad]

6 minutes ago, Stradling said:

No shit it's a problem.  It's a problem only solved with a ton of money and a different kind of hope.  

Would you spend $100+ million on Darvish in hopes he stays healthy and effective?  

As for the 200 innings thing, will there even be 10 guys in the league that pitch 200 innings?

Well, I was citing a problem and I guess you agree?

I originally mentioned that the Angels did not have one good bet to log 180 decent innings.

Yes, there might be about 10 guys in the AL that end up with 200 innings.  I think it was 9 or 10 last year.

Spread across the league that would mean 2/3 of teams would have one.

Since the Angels are supposed to be a premium franchise in a big market, I would kinda expect the Angels would be in the 2/3 of teams that have someone like that.

Since they don't, I believe the GM should probably be fairly focused on getting a body that provides stability.

I think there is a HUGE vacancy at the top of the rotation, and I am willing to be a broken record on that point when I see people talking about having depth or lots of starting pitching for 2018.

 

 

[zenmaster]

This team desperately needs an Ace. I don't think we have one capable of it right now.