To Sell or not to Sell: Wildcard Hopes & Firesale Probabilities

[DoubleOffTheWall]

Re-sign maybin. Dude is a beast. We havent had a LFer since anderson. 

[Farmbuildingfan]

18 hours ago, Stradling said:

Here's a question for you.  Of all the prospects in the last ten years we've traded, how many have become decent to very good?  

I can think of one prospect so far that has become very good, Segura.  Clevinger has been decent.  Grichuk has been good, but I think he's back in the minors.  I'm sure I'm missing some, but if we are constantly trading prospects away, I'm sure you have a list of others.  

I am wrong to only use the term "prospects" , as this is incomplete. I should add' "young players" with upside.

I wish the Angels still had Trump, Napoli, Corbin,.Trumbo, and Chatwood. who were gone before hitting their prime.

Moreno has not been burned much with only prospects, but I do not want him to tempt fate.

I forgot it was a separate deal made the same day  as the Kendrick for Heaney trade when the Angels gave up a prospect..

However, it was a one prospect for one veteran trade in  getting  Heaney for Kendrick.

if the players were reversed. Moreno would have thrown in two more prospects plus Heaney to get Kendrick.

I hope Moreno is through with these get less than you give deals.

 

.

 

[Angelsjunky]

@Farmbuildingfan, you realize that it is the GM that manufactures trades, not the owner (in general). We know Arte had a lot to do with the horrible Wells trade, but that was 2011 - I don't think Arte has been doing much of this for a few years now.

[Farmbuildingfan]

I hope you are right.

If we see the farm system rising every year, and the top prospects not being packaged away then I will surmise you have been right.

GMs want to uphold the owners philosophy, so let us hope Eppier is more intelligent and persuasive than Moreno.

[Second Base]

20 hours ago, Farmbuildingfan said:

I certainly want to be proven wrong, but I just don't see the Angels trading for  prospects. It is simply something that that is contrary to their short sighted philosophy.

Do the Angels ever get more players than they give up in trades?

Do they ever get younger in trades?

Whatever moves could be in the works, I would not concern myself with trying to win this year. 

I would only consider this year if the Angels were either within striking distance of a division win, or they got Richards, Heaney ,and Scaggs all back healthy.

Neither of these will happen, so even a WC spot puts the odds of making the ALC a long shot.

I say focus on 2018-2021,,and disregard 2017.

Except for Maldonado, any player over age 30 should be considered in a trade.

It's also important to distinguish between different GM's. When each new one is hired, he brings with him an entirely new front office with different team building philosophies and draft strategies. Some strongly favor spending in free agency, drafting high floor-low ceiling players, and a change of scenery (Dipoto). 

Others prefer not to trade, but build from with a farm system with high ceiling-low floor picks that will only occasionally venture into free agency (Stoneman). 

And still others haven't the slightest idea what they are doing (Reagins/Scioscia). 

So you have to look at who Eppler is. And we know a few things about him. He loves to buy low in free agency and trades (Jesus Castillo, Cam Maybin, Parker Bridwell, John Lamb, JC Ramirez, Bud Norris, Blake Parker), he shies away from major money investments, and he drafts high ceiling-low floor players early on and a steady flow of low ceiling high floor players in the mid-rounds.

So, seeing as we are pretty competitive, and assuming we remain so, you can expect some lateral movement from Eppler.

By that I mean, he'll acquire some long term pieces without sacrificing key prospects while trading surplus personnel. So chances are he'll probably sell off Huston Street and Eric Young Jr. for prospects.

[Slegnaac]

The team only has 2 OF signed for next season, so the ability to resign Maybin, Revere or EYJ has to be a consideration in any trade that involves on of those 3.

I only hope that there isn't a black hole in LF next season.

[Stradling]

2 hours ago, Farmbuildingfan said:

I am wrong to only use the term "prospects" , as this is incomplete. I should add' "young players" with upside.

I wish the Angels still had Trump, Napoli, Corbin,.Trumbo, and Chatwood. who were gone before hitting their prime.

Moreno has not been burned much with only prospects, but I do not want him to tempt fate.

I forgot it was a separate deal made the same day  as the Kendrick for Heaney trade when the Angels gave up a prospect..

However, it was a one prospect for one veteran trade in  getting  Heaney for Kendrick.

if the players were reversed. Moreno would have thrown in two more prospects plus Heaney to get Kendrick.

I hope Moreno is through with these get less than you give deals.

 

.

 

Because a dude on a message board says so.  How bout you look at what has actually happened with the trades of prospects, instead of putting on a tin foil hat and playing make believe.  If you would have said Arte didn't invest enough in scouting, that's an argument that can be made.  However when you come on here and say Arte is trading prospects, or that he would give up prospects to get aging players just because.  It makes your posts laughably bad.  

[tomsred]

It's hard work supporting statements with facts.

[IEAngelsfan]

3 hours ago, Farmbuildingfan said:

I am wrong to only use the term "prospects" , as this is incomplete. I should add' "young players" with upside.

I wish the Angels still had Trump, Napoli, Corbin,.Trumbo, and Chatwood. who were gone before hitting their prime.

Moreno has not been burned much with only prospects, but I do not want him to tempt fate.

I forgot it was a separate deal made the same day  as the Kendrick for Heaney trade when the Angels gave up a prospect..

However, it was a one prospect for one veteran trade in  getting  Heaney for Kendrick.

if the players were reversed. Moreno would have thrown in two more prospects plus Heaney to get Kendrick.

I hope Moreno is through with these get less than you give deals.

 

.

 

The Angels once had him?

[JAHV76]

8 minutes ago, IEAngelsfan said:

The Angels once had him?

Yep he was going to make the Angels offense HUGE and Great again!!

[DMVol]

23 hours ago, Stradling said:

Here's a question for you.  Of all the prospects in the last ten years we've traded, how many have become decent to very good?  

Newcomb has been very good so far, but too small of a sample size...we'll see....Will Smith has been a solid reliever....traded for Callaspo, who was ok at 3b...

[Stradling]

22 minutes ago, DMVol said:

Newcomb has been very good so far, but too small of a sample size...we'll see....Will Smith has been a solid reliever....traded for Callaspo, who was ok at 3b...

Will Smith is a good one. 

[AngelsLakersFan]

1 hour ago, Stradling said:

Will Smith is a good one. 

Loved him in Concussion. #OscarsSoWhite

[TroutAdell]

On 6/24/2017 at 2:42 PM, Dochalo said:

why trade for any of them if we can just sign them in the offseason?

The Angels don't have the necessary pieces to trade for the three from KC. Also, Moose and Hosmer are Boras clients so there is no way they sign an extension during the season.  

[Troll Daddy]

[ettin]

20 hours ago, tomsred said:

It's hard work supporting statements with facts.

Yet another reason DT hasn't worked a hard day in his life.

 

 

Oops! My inner Political Forum voice came out!

[red321]

Nationals are so desperate for pen help they just signed Frankie Rodriguez...I'm guessing that's not going to be sufficient...Angels fall out of contention they have some bullpen help available...and if Bedrosian and Street are healthy suddenly the pen has parts to move even if the Halos are still in contention.

[ten ocho recon scout]

Im still not in the buyer camp. As far as selling, would we be smarter to trade at the deadline or offseason? Probably offseason.

Id still prefer they focus on 2019 right now...but also hope they sign someone this winter. Moustakas would be nice but likely too pricey. But a move like that would be a lot more to my liking than trying to bring someone in this year when our pitching is bonded by scotch tape.

[Ace-Of-Diamonds]

On 6/24/2017 at 7:06 PM, Stradling said:

Here's a question for you.  Of all the prospects in the last ten years we've traded, how many have become decent to very good?  

I can think of one prospect so far that has become very good, Segura.  Clevinger has been decent.  Grichuk has been good, but I think he's back in the minors.  I'm sure I'm missing some, but if we are constantly trading prospects away, I'm sure you have a list of others.  

Newcomb has made 3 ML starts 18.1 innings with a 1.96 ERA.

[Season Over]

 

You can't waste your ace in a one-game playoff if you don't have one.

[Rico]

On 6/23/2017 at 1:16 PM, Angel Oracle said:

Even Baahs-ton doesn't look scary, outside of throwing Sale at you in a one game WC.

Sale in a one game playoff?  Bring it on.

 

[totdprods]

At this juncture I have a hard time seeing them having any interest selling anyone other than Revere, Chavez, Nolasco, Pennington, and maybe one good reliever, with the hope that Street, Bailey, or a bumped SP fills the void. 

I also think with the Baldoquin embargo lifting, Hamilton coming off the books, and our solid recent draft, Eppler may be more willing to dip into some prospects for a player and filling holes later via FA. I don't think it's coincidental that those timelines are meeting now.

I think we will be buyers. How much so will depend on the status of guys like Street, Shoemaker, Trout, Skaggs, Richards, and Norris, but I think they will add.

[The Judgernaut]

Good to see your guys playing well.  

If it your team were in New York the narrative would be, and i shit you not, "are the Angels better without Mike Trout?"

Anyway, i stopped in during the Yankee series and thanks for beating up on the Sox this weekend.

Also, I hope Billy Eppler does well for you guys

[Inside Pitch]

21 minutes ago, The Judgernaut said:

Also, I hope Billy Eppler does well for you guys

He's done more to right the ship in 18 months than was done in the previous 7 years.  Now we need to see how well he spends money, if he's actually given any leeway to spend that is.

[jsnpritchett]

On 6/25/2017 at 3:57 PM, Slegnaac said:

The team only has 2 OF signed for next season, so the ability to resign Maybin, Revere or EYJ has to be a consideration in any trade that involves on of those 3.

I only hope that there isn't a black hole in LF next season.

If any decision that's being made is in any way predicated on the ability to re-sign Eric Young, Jr., something has gone disastrously wrong.  You want to think about re-signing him based on an 89-plate appearance sample?  Has he been a decent fill-in for Trout?  Of course.  Is there a realistic chance that he continues doing anything remotely close to what he's done so far?  Not really (he's at .182/.250/.227 in his last 25 PA, for example, if you want to look at small sample sizes ).  

Also, Ben Revere has -1.4 WAR this year, and -2.6 WAR since the beginning of last year--so almost literally anyone would be better than him.