2014 Trout or 2016 Trout: Which one would you guys rather have on your Angels?

[JustATroutFan]

http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/t/troutmi01.shtml

 

Not an Angels fan but I'm a big fan of Trout. Personally, I would rather have the 2016 version of Trout than the 2014 version. Trout's all-around game is the reason why he's considered the best player in the game.

[Inside Pitch]

 

2016....

[Docwaukee]

2012 - most sbs and highest BA

2013 - highest ops+

2014 - 84 xbh.  

2015 - highest hr total.  41. 

2016 - highest bb total and obp.  

hard to choose.  

[Docwaukee]

a combo of Trouts best years would be 

39 dbls, 9 triples, 41 hrs, 116bb, 49 steals, .326 ba, 11 hbp, 10 sac flies

 

[Troutstanding]

2014 was probably the weakest of his career so the choice is an easy one.

(of course even his "weakest" season is far better than the best year of most players)

[Oz27]

2016, definitely. As others have said, 2014 was pretty clearly Trout's worst full year.

Trout hypotheticals are my favorite topic though. Two good ones I've heard recently - how many pounds could Trout gain while remaining an above replacement level player? It wouldn't surprise me if a 400 pound Trout still had a positive WAR.

Also, if Trout decided to hit left handed now and stuck with it for the rest of his career, how good would he be?

[Angel Oracle]

3 hours ago, Dochalo said:

a combo of Trouts best years would be 

39 dbls, 9 triples, 41 hrs, 116bb, 49 steals, .326 ba, 11 hbp, 10 sac flies

 

Ralston Schmidt quality

[AngelArcher]

Curious, what made you choose those two seasons?

 

Please don't say because they're his MVP years. 

 

[Stradling]

Easy choice, 2017 version. 

[eaterfan]

1 hour ago, AngelArcher said:

Curious, what made you choose those two seasons?

 

Please don't say because they're his MVP years. 

 

That's way way way better than the alternative reason to that.

[totdprods]

9 hours ago, Dochalo said:

a combo of Trouts best years would be 

39 dbls, 9 triples, 41 hrs, 116bb, 49 steals, .326 ba, 11 hbp, 10 sac flies

 

I'm hoping that's what peak Trout winds up being. The steals and triples may not be that realistic again, but if that BA crept up into the .330s-.340s as a trade off I'd make that deal. 

[eaterfan]

1 minute ago, totdprods said:

I'm hoping that's what peak Trout winds up being. The steals and triples may not be that realistic again, but if that BA crept up into the .330s-.340s as a trade off I'd make that deal. 

Fangraphs wrote a nice piece on what a peak Trout season might look like:

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/what-would-a-peak-year-from-mike-trout-look-like/

[totdprods]

The flip side though, that is hard for me to type, is we, and Eppler, should probably also wonder what Trout age 30-36 looks like. We're already gonna get peak Trout at this point. Please don't let this devolve into a Trout walking/trade thread either. That should be moot. What could Trout look like in 6 years? 8 years? Is the BA gonna slip as he loses speed? Will he transition into more of a power hitter as a result? Will the HRs and BA tail off a bit but hybridize into a hitter with a ton of doubles? When would moving to a corner outfield position be best for his performance and health? 

I think Fangraphs has done an article like that too, but curious what we Halos fans think.

[Angelsjunky]

I don't mean to be a jerk, but it is a non-question because the answer is obvious and clear: Trout was a better player in 2016.

[Ohtaniland]

The 2021 Trout is the one I'd rather have on our Angels. 

end thread 

[Stradling]

Liar, that's the last thing you want.  

[tdawg87]

21 hours ago, Dochalo said:

a combo of Trouts best years would be 

39 dbls, 9 triples, 41 hrs, 116bb, 49 steals, .326 ba, 11 hbp, 10 sac flies

 

Help

[Docwaukee]

15 minutes ago, tdawg87 said:

Help

can one drown in their own desire to masturbate?  

[AngelArcher]

25 minutes ago, tdawg87 said:

Help

It's been over 4 hrs?

 

[Docwaukee]

12 hours ago, totdprods said:

The flip side though, that is hard for me to type, is we, and Eppler, should probably also wonder what Trout age 30-36 looks like. We're already gonna get peak Trout at this point. Please don't let this devolve into a Trout walking/trade thread either. That should be moot. What could Trout look like in 6 years? 8 years? Is the BA gonna slip as he loses speed? Will he transition into more of a power hitter as a result? Will the HRs and BA tail off a bit but hybridize into a hitter with a ton of doubles? When would moving to a corner outfield position be best for his performance and health? 

I think Fangraphs has done an article like that too, but curious what we Halos fans think.

Of course there aren't really any true comps for what Trout has done so it's hard to project what he will be.  

There are a few players who have had similar peripherals but none truly the same across the board.  

While Trout's elevated BABIP has something to do with his speed, it has much more to do with his ability to hit and the fact that a lot of his outs come from K's.  

Over time, only truly elite hitters can maintain a BABIP that seems higher than it should.  The approach of today's hitters actually propagates this.  With defensive shifts and alignments as well as just the general baseline skill of defensive players, there isn't as much of a premium on putting a ball in play that isn't hit with authority.  

It's interesting if you look at the league BABIP over the years.  Defenses are probably better now than they have ever been so it would make sense if the current league avg were as low as it's ever been, but it's actually the opposite.  Why?  The denominator.  The top 30 BABIP seasons by league are all from 1894-1936 and from 1994-current.  There is nearly a 60 year gap between those two timelines.  The first segment had a large numerator.  Defenses sucked.  The players just weren't as talented across the board.  Conditions weren't as good and the ability to scout was way more difficult and less scientific.  Today's game is the complete opposite, but the denominator is different because of high strike out rates.  

How does this relate to Trout's future production?  There is zero effort to put the ball in play without authority.  Players recognize a pitch and swing to do damage.  They are instructed to do so from the time they start playing and Trout is a perfect example.  If he doesn't have a chance to make contact with authority, he either let's the pitch go, or doesn't make contact at all.  

Trout having a more normal BABIP may happen, and a decrease in speed may have something to do with it, but my guess is that it will have more to do with a decrease in strikeouts.  He's never going to completely sacrifice hitting the ball hard for contact and there will always be significant element of swing and miss to his game, where I think his game is going to evolve is through his k rate and more importantly, his bb/k rate.  2016 was the highest of his career.  There were 2 players with a rate greater than 1 last year.  

Mike's hrs will settle in around 30 for the next few years.  Pitchers just aren't going to give him very many opportunities to hit them.  Especially if the halos continue to focus on putting high obp guys in front of him.  Which they will.  Trout his 41 hrs in 2015.  31 were solo shots.  He had 416pa with the bases empty and 266 with runner on.  In 2016 he had 371pa with no one on and 310pa with runners on base.  He hit 17 solo shots last year.  

Going forward, that is what we're going to see.  25-35 hrs with a bb/k rate of greater than 1.  He's gonna have a couple of .330+ ba seasons.  It's amazing to even consider, but the best of Mike Trout is yet to come.  Then, when he hits 33/34, you may see that bb/k ratio start to reverse a bit and he won't be as quick but he walks will always be there.  The batting average will start to drop a bit, but then I think he hits a few more hrs than we'd expect with some 35-40 hr seasons and a .270 avg but with 100 plus walks.  He's gonna hang until he's 40/41 ala hank aaron.  By that time, people will consider him in the conversation for greatest ever.  

 

[Angelsjunky]

Interesting take as always, Doc. I honestly don't know what to expect except for more excellence. It seems the baseline is .300 BA, 30 HR, 100 BB, with variations around those numbers. I'd like to agree with you that we'll see some .330+ BA seasons but not sure it will happen. The strikeout reduction will have to continue, so maybe we'll know more this year. But he could also stabilize in his current range stick around the .300-.320 range for years to come. I do agree that we won't see 40 HR again, except maybe for a few years in his 30s.

[WeatherWonk]

If Trout walks from the Angels, I wouldn't suppose that he might not hit 40+ HRs for several seasons after he leaves. Certain ballparks could encourage him to swing more for the fences, as his speed declines or injuries take their toll. Look at Albert; probably the only player of this era to have comparable offensive numbers to Trout, at the start of a career. He seems to emphasize the HR. Of course, he has never had the speed of Trout. Few have, with his power.

 

[totdprods]

7 hours ago, Angelsjunky said:

Interesting take as always, Doc. I honestly don't know what to expect except for more excellence. It seems the baseline is .300 BA, 30 HR, 100 BB, with variations around those numbers. I'd like to agree with you that we'll see some .330+ BA seasons but not sure it will happen. The strikeout reduction will have to continue, so maybe we'll know more this year. But he could also stabilize in his current range stick around the .300-.320 range for years to come. I do agree that we won't see 40 HR again, except maybe for a few years in his 30s.

I think he'll hit the .330+ average a couple times purely because I think his pitch recognition is going to peak at a time where his speed is still sufficient and at a time where pitchers won't be giving him as much to hit. For those who buy into it, it could happen when Cron winds up having a breakthrough year and teams haven't caught on yet and are just pitching around Trout trying to focus on Pujols and Cron.

[Tank]

we don't really have to pick one over the other being as how both of those seasons were accomplished here.

maybe a better question would be "between his two mvp seasons, which one would you like to see him repeat most often?"

[Dtwncbad]

On 1/20/2017 at 11:20 PM, JustATroutFan said:

http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/t/troutmi01.shtml

 

Not an Angels fan but I'm a big fan of Trout. Personally, I would rather have the 2016 version of Trout than the 2014 version. Trout's all-around game is the reason why he's considered the best player in the game.

Seem to me this is kind of like trying to decide if I would rather have Heidi Klum at 26 yrs old or 27 yrs old.