More Mike Trout craziness

[Oz27]

Long post alert, please forgive me...I started writing this and got a little carried away, but hopefully it is interesting anyway.

 

Hitting after falling behind in a count is really hard to do. The book ‘Moneyball’ likened each plate appearance to a game of blackjack, where every card dealt (or in this case each pitch) substantially alters the probable outcome. Naturally, when a hitter falls behind 0-2, they strike out a lot of the time. They don’t walk very much. They don’t get on base all that much at all. As a team, the Rockies had a .536 OPS after their hitters fell behind 0-2 and that was the best mark in baseball in 2016. The Astros, worst in the league, had an OPS of just .367 after an 0-2 count.

So that provides some context for Mike Trout’s numbers after falling behind 0-2, which are really hard to believe. After 133 plate appearances in which he fell behind 0-2, Trout had an .837 OPS. He had seven home runs and 12 extra base hits.

But that is only scratching the surface. He had 12 base on balls, meaning he still walked nine per cent of the time in plate appearances where he fell behind 0-2. To put that into some perspective, only 55 of the 146 hitters who qualified for the batting title had an overall walk rate better than nine per cent.

Trout’s wOBA after falling behind 0-2 was .363. Again, for some perspective, only 32 of the 146 qualified hitters had a better overall wOBA than that.

His wRC+, post 0-2 count, was 133. Only 20 qualified hitters in baseball had a better overall mark than that. Mookie Betts, who will probably win the AL MVP, had an overall wRC+ of 135. Let that sink in. If you take out all of the plate appearances in which he did not fall behind 0-2, Trout was still practically as good a hitter as Mookie Betts. That, quite frankly, is ridiculous. Trout’s ‘after 0-2’ mark is also equal to Kyle Seager’s overall production. It is better than Manny Machado’s overall production … and Nolan Arenado and Mark Trumbo and Carlos Correa and countless other players who are considered really good hitters.

As for how he compares to his peers in the ‘after 0-2’ category, Baseball Reference calculates a statistic called split OPS+. It works just like OPS+, but instead of comparing it to overall production, it differentiates performance in that particular split. 100 is average and Trout’s mark is 266. That means he performed 166 per cent better than the league average hitter did after an 0-2 count.

Only 12 hitters have ever posted an ‘after 0-2’ OPS better than Trout’s .837 2016 mark (minimum 100 PA, to avoid small sample size outliers) and most of them played in much more hitter-friendly ballparks.

As amazing as all of this is, too, at one point he actually had much better ‘after 0-2’ numbers. Pedro Moura wrote about it in July for the LA Times, at which point Trout had a .996 OPS after falling behind 0-2. His final numbers were a fair bit worse than that, but it doesn’t make that any less remarkable.

What makes this more interesting, too, is Trout had never been that great an ‘after 0-2’ hitter prior to this year. He had been good, but he never had a walk rate higher than 6.2 per cent or a wRC+ better than 98. In 2014 he struck out 51 per cent of the time and had a walk rate of just 3.8 per cent. This year his strike out rate was 34.3 per cent and he walked nine per cent of the time. Maybe it is just a funky outlier – just statistical noise -  or maybe he has made a real improvement.

Either way, Trout’s 0-2 performance in 2016 was stunning. The comparison between Trout’s stats after falling behind 0-2 and the overall numbers of his MVP rivals really speaks to how drastically superior a hitter he is too.

[halomatt]

Did you do the research or are you paraphrasing an article?  So much great information and thanks for sharing it! I teach writing to middle school students and I focus on logic in constructing arguments.  One of the topics I cover is the 2012 MVP "controversy" between Trout and Cabrera's Triple Crown.  I try not to sound to biased, but the numbers really end up speaking for themselves. 

I'm currently wondering if it would be worth it to update the lesson to 2016.  I'm not sure cause 2012 could be argued either way.  2016 looks to me too one-sided. 

[eaterfan]

What a great write up. The comparison of Trout to Betts was just mind blowing.

[Angel Oracle]

Trout's season was just about as textbook as they come.   I don't remember many even small slumps.    Every category shows at least solid numbers.

And to think that his contract still has 4 years to go.   Just sit back and enjoy the play, the play of the best player in MLB, bar none.

[Troll Daddy]

These type of threads are always head scratchers for me. I'm don't follow stats so I get confused easily. 

Trout's 2016 numbers with the count 0-2

35 AB 2Hr 6 RBI's .229 AVE .250 OBP .679 OPS

Is this correct? 

 

 

[Docwaukee]

Good stuff Oz.  

[Stradling]

14 minutes ago, Troll Daddy said:

These type of threads are always head scratchers for me. I'm don't follow stats so I get confused easily. 

Trout's 2016 numbers with the count 0-2

35 AB 2Hr 6 RBI's .229 AVE .250 OBP .679 OPS

Is this correct? 

 

 

I can only assume you are talking about two different stats.  You are saying what he did with an 0-2 count.  Oz is talking about what he did in at bats where he was behind 0-2 in the count during the at bat.  See it's impossible to walk on an 0-2 count, but not impossible to draw a walk when you fall behind 0-2.  Hope that clarifies it for you.  

[Troll Daddy]

34 minutes ago, Stradling said:

I can only assume you are talking about two different stats.  You are saying what he did with an 0-2 count.  Oz is talking about what he did in at bats where he was behind 0-2 in the count during the at bat.  See it's impossible to walk on an 0-2 count, but not impossible to draw a walk when you fall behind 0-2.  Hope that clarifies it for you.  

Thanks for the clarification. So it's safe to say that Trout knows walks.

[Docwaukee]

34 minutes ago, Troll Daddy said:

Thanks for the clarification. So it's safe to say that Trout knows walks.

Trout knows the strike zone.  Pitchers know how good he is.  He's very good at not getting himself out.  

[Angelsjunky]

Great stuff, Oz. Thanks for bringing attention to yet another aspect of Trout amazingness.

[ettin]

Nice Oz.... If you've ever watched Trout he clearly doesn't mind getting to 0-2 in a count. He's at such a higher level in the box that it is almost as if he is baiting the pitcher to think they are ahead and then he just crushes whatever off speed pitch they try to throw. His in-the-box batting is otherworldly.

[Oz27]

Thanks very much everyone.

One thing I forgot to mention... The Angels were far from a terrible offensive team this year. They ranked ninth in wRC+, 17th in runs and 21st in wOBA, so they were something like an average offensive team. My point here there is just to set the table for how ridiculous this is. On an average offensive team, no non-Trout hitter had an overall wRC+ as good as Trout's mark after falling behind 0-2. The closest was Kole Calhoun, 14 points behind at 118. The point is not to bash Calhoun or anyone else, just to illustrate Trout's ridiculousness again.

Also, the Athletics, Marlins, Orioles, Padres, Phillies, Rockies, Royals and White Sox all don't have a single hitter (minimum 100 PA) who had a wRC+ as good as Trout's mark after falling behind 0-2.

[Oz27]

7 hours ago, halomatt said:

Did you do the research or are you paraphrasing an article?  So much great information and thanks for sharing it! I teach writing to middle school students and I focus on logic in constructing arguments.  One of the topics I cover is the 2012 MVP "controversy" between Trout and Cabrera's Triple Crown.  I try not to sound to biased, but the numbers really end up speaking for themselves. 

I'm currently wondering if it would be worth it to update the lesson to 2016.  I'm not sure cause 2012 could be argued either way.  2016 looks to me too one-sided. 

I have a nasty habit of getting lost in a Baseball-Reference or Fangraphs black hole when I find something interesting and not resurfacing for hours. I figured I may as well do something moderately useful with it for once!

I suppose 2016 could work, because it comes down to the argument of 'does the team around you matter'. Some of your students might argue Trout's performance is irrelevant because the Angels would have sucked with or without him, while slightly more aware ones would hopefully refute that silly argument.

[yk9001]

You guys have girlfriends or wives?

[Oz27]

4 hours ago, ANAHEIMBOB said:

Trout is the best player in baseball,  where does he rank with two out RBI's ?  A much more important stat. 

Out of curiosity, who is the best player in baseball according to you?

[ten ocho recon scout]

15 minutes ago, yk9001 said:

You guys have girlfriends or wives?

Yes. But as weve researched WAR and argued on here, they secretly ran off with a girlfriend.

 

[Stradling]

18 minutes ago, Oz27 said:

Out of curiosity, who is the best player in baseball according to you?

Mark Trumbo

[Ohtaniland]

51 minutes ago, Oz27 said:

Out of curiosity, who is the best player in baseball according to you?

Scott Boras

[tdawg87]

1 hour ago, Oz27 said:

Out of curiosity, who is the best player in baseball according to you?

He's a troll or somebody's alt account. Don't even bother responding. 

[beatlesrule]

2 hours ago, yk9001 said:

You guys have girlfriends or wives?

 

[tdawg87]

Lol

[Ace-Of-Diamonds]

6 minutes ago, ANAHEIMBOB said:

Pound for pound, I think Altuve should be ahead of Trout. Betts or  Donaldson should win it.

The weight of a player isn't relevant when measuring a ball player's value.

[m0nkey]

So because he play's on a trash team he's less of a player?

 

Trout was put on a bad team.

Boom right back at you.  Are people born dumb?

[Stradling]

13 hours ago, tdawg87 said:

He's a troll or somebody's alt account. Don't even bother responding. 

Sadly this isn't the case

[Stradling]

And thinks that Altuve is better than Trout.