Trout's 30-30 watch

[VariousCrap]

If he ever does that, 

[tdawg87]

29 HR, 99 RBI, 29 SB.

[Docwaukee]

gonna be tough for him in Houstion.  

[notherhalo]

Can he be the first non-roider in the 40/40?

[Angelsjunky]

It would be a nice, on-paper accomplishment - but maybe not worth the trouble. I think he's lost a bit of a step on the base-paths, so to steal 40 bases he'd really have to work at it. Plus, who knows if he'll hit 40 HR again. He might be more of a 30-35 guy.

[disarcina]

he's getting closer -- tonight's 'stolen base' vs. Houston (right before the Intentional Walk to Pujols) -- I was surprised (and pleasantly so) that Trout was credited with a stolen base -- looked a lot like 'defensive indifference' to me -- although that's really weird in a 6-6 tie 9th inning situation. Did the ball get stuck in the catcher's glove or did Trout get such a jump on the pitcher that the catcher just said 'forgettabout it' and they were planning to walk Pujols anyway?  hard to say.

anyway, Trout will take the SB on the way to 30/30/ 100 and how may hits? 175?

[AngelsLakersFan]

18 minutes ago, disarcina said:

he's getting closer -- tonight's 'stolen base' vs. Houston (right before the Intentional Walk to Pujols) -- I was surprised (and pleasantly so) that Trout was credited with a stolen base -- looked a lot like 'defensive indifference' to me -- although that's really weird in a 6-6 tie 9th inning situation. Did the ball get stuck in the catcher's glove or did Trout get such a jump on the pitcher that the catcher just said 'forgettabout it' and they were planning to walk Pujols anyway?  hard to say.

anyway, Trout will take the SB on the way to 30/30/ 100 and how may hits? 175?

If that's not a stolen base then there are no stolen bases in baseball.

Mike was already just about to go into his slide by the time the ball got to the catcher.

[disarcina]

he stole it off the  pitcher -- the catcher made no attempt to throw --

don't usually see that in a 6-6 game in the ninth......

[ukyah]

2 hours ago, disarcina said:

he stole it off the  pitcher -- the catcher made no attempt to throw --

don't usually see that in a 6-6 game in the ninth......

the catcher didn't throw because mike was already safe. you see that all the time, when a runner absolutely torches the pitcher.

[Angelsjunky]

28-27, 8 games to go. It is going to be close. I predict 29-29, to give further "justification" for stupid MVP voters.

[wopphil]

10 hours ago, Angelsjunky said:

28-27, 8 games to go. It is going to be close. I predict 29-29, to give further "justification" for stupid MVP voters.

I think it is going to be hard for the voters to justify not giving the award to Trout. He has been substantially better than the rest of the field. He should win the award by a landslide.

[IEAngelsfan]

4 minutes ago, wopphil said:

I think it is going to be hard for the voters to justify not giving the award to Trout. He has been substantially better than the rest of the field. He should win the award by a landslide.

I think you're underestimating stupid MVP voters.

[Angelsjunky]

14 minutes ago, wopphil said:

I think it is going to be hard for the voters to justify not giving the award to Trout. He has been substantially better than the rest of the field. He should win the award by a landslide.

What IEANgelfan said. If we only compare Trout to Betts, he's got a two-fold problem: One, Betts traditional stats are just slightly better: he's got a few more HR, a bunch more RBI, and a slightly higher BA. Never mind the fact that Trout has more than twice as many walks and an OBP 70 points higher. That's problem #1. Problem #2 is that Betts plays on a playoff team.

Now Betts has one problem that Trout doesn't have: a co-MVP candidate in David Ortiz, who has been even better with the bat. The "Ortiz factor" somewhat evens the field, or at least diminishes the foregone conclusion that the above would normally point to.

But even if voters look at WAR, which WAR do they look at? Via Fangraphs Trout looks a lot better, 8.9 to 7.7. But by B-R, the gap is much smaller: 10.2 to 9.5. If Betts goes on a tear and finishes at 10.0, and Trout stumbles and falls to 9.9, there goes that.

I think Donaldson is less of a threat, because he kind of falls behind Betts and Trout in the two camps: the sabermetrically-sympathetic will prefer Trout, while the traditional voters will prefer Betts. Altuve and Machado are in a similar group, but could steal it away with a strong finish. Altuve has the "short guy novelty" factor, but his case was a lot stronger when he was hitting over .350. .338 is great, but doesn't stand out as much.

Anyhow, it is really a close call. Unless one of the above goes on an absolute tear and everyone else slumps, it really is impossible to say.

[tdawg87]

Trout had about a 1.5 bWAR lead just a couple days ago. Defensive WAR is fucked.

[wopphil]

Betts is an amazing player, but his numbers are very park inflated. By just about every measure, Trout has been the better player.

[disarcina]

at some point when the players' 2016 MVP stats are so close -- and, of course, there's the 'he's plays for a contender' factor for guys like Betts, Donaldson.........but at some point, I would think you look at the three or four top candidates' stats -- and if they're so close, there's really not much difference between the top guys -- and at that point -- I would think (probably not, but I would) you look at a player like Trout and darned !! It's not just 2016 with these kinds of MVP stats it's the past three years...........and if the others can't match that - I would think the 'stat' tie would go to the player who's been consistently good over several years............

am sure no one's thinking that -- but Trout has several second place MVP finishes so I'm thinking that...........and it's not 'hey, it's his turn'  -- it's more -'geez these guys have been good this year, but this guy has been good this year plus the past two years plus"

[tdawg87]

This thread has 40 posts but only like 2 have been actual updates.

[Ace-Of-Diamonds]

28 HR, 27 SB, 96 RBI.

2 two run HRs and 3 SBs to go in 7 games. You can do it.

[Ace-Of-Diamonds]

5 hours ago, tdawg87 said:

Trout had about a 1.5 bWAR lead just a couple days ago. Defensive WAR is fucked.

Betts 1-3,  1 single, 1 BB, 2 runs, 0 RBIs

Trout 2-3, single and double, 2 BB, 3 runs, 2 RBIs

That should add a few tenths of a decimal point of separation to their WAR.

[Troll Daddy]

[Angel Oracle]

Time to get busy on the basepaths

[Troll Daddy]

4 minutes ago, Angel Oracle said:

Time to get busy on the basepaths

This should be a piece of cake for him.

He'll get to 30/30

[Ace-Of-Diamonds]

8 hours ago, Troll Daddy said:

This should be a piece of cake for him.

He'll get to 30/30

It was only 2 or 3 weeks long ago that Trout needed 4HR, 12 RBI, and 5 SB. I was thinking he better get cracking. Since then his chances look a lot more doable. With just 5 games left, it's the 3 steals he needs that seem like the hardest to get unless he makes a conscious decision to steal more.

[totdprods]

Never doubt the Trout!

[Angelsjunky]

Stuck at 29 HR, 27 SB after a caught stealing. 99 RBI, so he should get to 100.