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Good grief....


DMVol

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11 hours ago, Jeff Fletcher said:

The Angels did scout all of those marquee international FA's. All teams scout everyone pretty much. It's what they do. 

Jeff:  Since they haven't signed a significant international FA (that I can remember) since Kendrys Morales, which was probably 10 years ago, there has to be something beyond Arte's recent reluctance to breach the luxury tax involved...And I don't necessarily mean guys like Darvish, Tanaka or any of the high profile Cuban guys....we haven't even signed modestly priced guys that smaller market teams have signed.  Thoughts?  Organizational philosophy?

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There are 2 kinds of players here. The big time guys (Cespedes, Darvish, Abreu, etc.) I think the lack of activity in that area is simply not wanting to take financial gambles that big. 

As for the next level down, it's the same thing, on a smaller scale. When you give $2M to a college kid it's a gamble. You aren't sure what he'll be. So when you give $6M to a 16 year old Dominican kid that's an even bigger gamble. 

Sure, it's a steal if you hit, but if you miss, you're just flushing money down the toilet. 

I think Dipoto was, in general, a believer in safe bets. He thought that's what Baldoquin was, so they signed him. Baldoquin was 20, not 16, so they figured they had an idea what he'd be. Obviously, they were wrong, but that's the thinking. 

Now we don't really know yet what Eppler's philosophy is because he was handcuffed by the restrictions. They have signed a bunch of players, though. Who knows if they are any good. 

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4 hours ago, Jeff Fletcher said:

Yeah. I guess they missed on ordering those crystal balls that allow the other 29 teams to perfectly project who will be good and who won't. 

Not what I meant. They were so high on this guy that apparently nobody else was, that they blew past the penalty and aren't able to sign anyone until next offseason.

Do you believe they really needed to pay a guy like him so much? You'd know more about this than I do so I'm legitimately curious.

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1 hour ago, tdawg87 said:

Not what I meant. They were so high on this guy that apparently nobody else was, that they blew past the penalty and aren't able to sign anyone until next offseason.

Do you believe they really needed to pay a guy like him so much? You'd know more about this than I do so I'm legitimately curious.

"Apparently no one else was"

How do you know? 

I am sure the Angels know more about the scouting community and who is on who than you or I do. And I'm sure they didn't think "oh we can get him for $3M but he seems like a nice kid so let's give him $8M."

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3 hours ago, Jeff Fletcher said:

There are 2 kinds of players here. The big time guys (Cespedes, Darvish, Abreu, etc.) I think the lack of activity in that area is simply not wanting to take financial gambles that big. 

As for the next level down, it's the same thing, on a smaller scale. When you give $2M to a college kid it's a gamble. You aren't sure what he'll be. So when you give $6M to a 16 year old Dominican kid that's an even bigger gamble. 

Sure, it's a steal if you hit, but if you miss, you're just flushing money down the toilet. 

I think Dipoto was, in general, a believer in safe bets. He thought that's what Baldoquin was, so they signed him. Baldoquin was 20, not 16, so they figured they had an idea what he'd be. Obviously, they were wrong, but that's the thinking. 

Now we don't really know yet what Eppler's philosophy is because he was handcuffed by the restrictions. They have signed a bunch of players, though. Who knows if they are any good. 

there is no such thing as a low risk baseball player at any level.  there are opportunities to flush money down the toilet in any number of places.  The process you set up is supposed to mitigate as much of that risk as possible.  You pay people to do this in the hope that you are better at risk management than the other teams.  You also try to put yourself in a position at every level where calculated risks are just part of that process.  You want a diverse portfolio of risk if you will.  Our risk portfolio over the last several years has predominately consisted of either leaving our money in our mattress or buying lotto tickets while completely ignoring all other investment opportunities.  Part of that has to do with your expected cash out date.  The less time you allow yourself to reap the benefits, the more likely it is that you are going to have to decide between tremendous risk with potential high reward vs. low risk almost no reward.  There is a middle ground and prior to Eppler, we have not been able to find it.  We have put all of our eggs in one basket time and time again.  

Hopefully that changes with Eppler and there has been a shift to improving your odds by incorporating not only a better process, but doing so more comprehensively.  

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2 hours ago, Jeff Fletcher said:

"Apparently no one else was"

How do you know? 

I am sure the Angels know more about the scouting community and who is on who than you or I do. And I'm sure they didn't think "oh we can get him for $3M but he seems like a nice kid so let's give him $8M."

Well, it would seem nobody wanted him as much as Dipoto did.

You're right that I don't know that, but given the team's history it wouldn't surprise me if the Angels reached significantly to get him.

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