It all makes too much sense

[Ender]

That was Blackmon

 

 

A leadoff LF who plays 150+ games for us who hits .275-ish and gets on base over .300 and steals 43 bases for a probable #6 starter in our rotation?  Yes.  And twice on Sunday.

 

 

Blackmon's career line outside of Coors is pretty bad.  .241/.283/.370/.653 in 236 games, 878 plate appearances ... rather large sample.

 

Moving to the AL and out of Coors Field .... I would expect his numbers to be even worse.

 

Trading away starting pitching depth for mediocre players is not something I would advise ... especially since you guys don't really have a super threatening rotation as is. Now imagine if an injury occurs at the top.

 

Dickerson is the better player / prospect ... Blackmon would likely be a nobody outside of Coors, but even Dickerson outside of Coors leaves a lot to be desired (though its a smaller sample).

 

Just look at Dickerson's "great" 2014 ... look how much of that is fueled by strong numbers at Coors Field.

Edited January 27, 2016 by Ender

[YouthofToday]

Baez's bat speed is probably top 5 in MLB. Dude is a legit power hitter. Question marks around his position and plate discipline are legit and diminish his value.

[Angelfaninidaho]

 

 

 

 

Blackmon's career line outside of Coors is pretty bad.  .241/.283/.370/.653 in 236 games, 878 plate appearances ... rather large sample.

 

Moving to the AL and out of Coors Field .... I would expect his numbers to be even worse.

 

Trading away starting pitching depth for mediocre players is not something I would advise ... especially since you guys don't really have a super threatening rotation as is. Now imagine if an injury occurs at the top.

 

Dickerson is the better player / prospect ... Blackmon would likely be a nobody outside of Coors, but even Dickerson outside of Coors leaves a lot to be desired (though its a smaller sample).

 

Just look at Dickerson's "great" 2014 ... look how much of that is fueled by strong numbers at Coors Field.

 

Are their numbers so much better at Coors because pitches don't move as much or the balls fly farther?  I don't care about power.  I would like to see a guy who can hit singles, steal his way around and become an RBI for Trout, Pujols, etc.  One who can keep pitchers nervous and throw off their concentration worrying about the guy on first.  A guy who can run fast enough to break up Pujols and Escobar's inevitable GIDP's.  The guy will probably regress a bit at home and get better on the road and then settle into who he is, which appears a hell of a lot better than our other options.

[floplag]

A leadoff LF who plays 150+ games for us who hits .275-ish and gets on base over .300 and steals 43 bases for a probable #6 starter in our rotation?  Yes.  And twice on Sunday.

 

IF he put up that line, i would agree, but based on the three year splits of both players away from Coors you arent. 

 

Dickerson away from Coors line is far less than  that at 249/286/410/696 with less than half the HR as he had at home and fewer 2B/3B as well so...

 

Blackmon isnt much better at 24//291/386/677 though his power was closer to even money on the road in terms of HR but 2B/3B far less and even SB lower.  Last year was a little better than the averages in that area putting up a 238/300/395/695 line  His K/BB ratio is not good at near 2.5/3-1 ... for a leadoff guy thats not great. 

 

So, assuming you are going to get that line is very much wishful thinking.  IF we got that then fine, i would agree, but i think your projections are optimistic when you take out the Coors factor

 

Plus... he might be #6 for 2016 but in 2017 its more like giving up your 3-4 so that has to be taken into account.

[Angelfaninidaho]

IF he put up that line, i would agree, but based on the three year splits of both players away from Coors you arent.

Dickerson away from Coors line is far less than that at 249/286/410/696 with less than half the HR as he had at home and fewer 2B/3B as well so...

Blackmon isnt much better at 24//291/386/677 though his power was closer to eveni money on the road in terms of HR but 2B/3B far less and even SB lower. Last year was a little better than the averages in that area putting up a 238/300/395/695 line His K/BB ratio is not good at near 2.5/3-1 ... for a leadoff guy thats not great.

So, assuming you are going to get that line is very much wishful thinking. IF we got that then fine, i would agree, but i think your projections are optimistic when you take out the Coors factor

Plus... he might be #6 for 2016 but in 2017 its more like giving up your 3-4 so that has to be taken into account.

Fair enough. I just think Coors hurts your away numbers as much as it inflates your home numbers.

[tdawg87]

I don't think you can just take a Rockies' player's numbers away from Coors and say that's what they would hit for another team. Tons of hitters are better at home, and Coors just amplifies that effect.

 

Iannetta had a 105 OPS+ with the Angels. It was 99 with the Rockies. Holliday had a 131 OPS+ with the Rockies, and it was 120 with Oakland and 142 with St. Louis.

[YouthofToday]

Having your home games 5,000+ feet above sea level impacts your away numbers. Less gravity means pitches don't break as sharply. Hitters get use to that. After a 2 week homestand in Denver the transition to playing at near sea level has a demonstrable impact on the productivity of hitters to hit breaking ball pitches.

Edited January 27, 2016 by YouthofToday

[Angel Oracle]

Which is why I wish the AAA team was moved elsewhere with a much lower elevation.

But what cities would be candidates?

[floplag]

I don't think you can just take a Rockies' player's numbers away from Coors and say that's what they would hit for another team. Tons of hitters are better at home, and Coors just amplifies that effect.

 

Iannetta had a 105 OPS+ with the Angels. It was 99 with the Rockies. Holliday had a 131 OPS+ with the Rockies, and it was 120 with Oakland and 142 with St. Louis.

 

Fair enough but what else do we base them on? People want a guy so they assume hes better than the numbers, it convenient, but not tangible.  

 

Guys that have even close numbers on the road i dont object as much, but when that gap is as wide as it is in these cases it bothers me.    

 

It isnt just HR, when i see a guy with double digit triples at Coors and like 1 away, it suggests his ball doesnt carry as well off the bat to get thru the gaps or get to the wall for those doubles.  All of this with a far lower average means he has a ton more fly balls

 

People mention things like more or less break due to altitude.. which is true, but you are also talking about the difference between day to day adjustments to pitchers and such so that really shouldn't be as big a factor. 

Edited January 27, 2016 by floplag

[Angel Oracle]

Plus the deep dimensions at Coors Canaveral leads to more doubles and triples, which also drives up SLG%. 

And of course due to OFers playing deeper, more bloop hits fall in, which drives up the BA.

Edited January 27, 2016 by Angel Oracle

[Angelfaninidaho]

OK.  Now that Dickerson is on the Rays, how about taking Guyer at $1.15M from them.  He had a great year, great OBP and OPS, and the Rays have an OF logjam.  I like this more than either of the Rockies guys.