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Matt Harvey, Buster Posey- both drafted by the Angels


howie

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Sure would be nice to have both of these guys on the team- I realize there are lots of guys drafted out of high school that choose to go to college, just makes me wonder if there was more the organization could have done back then to get these guys to sign.  

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Thanks for the AO quality statement YOT.

 

Posey was drafted in 2005 in the 50th round (1,496), what kind of slot bonus do think was required? These are throw a lot of darts picks, not first rounders or even second round, this is every team passed on him at least 45 times. That is not a million dollar draft bonus pick, he knew it and took a college scholarship that was monetarily more than any 50th round player's bonus. Oh and just to note, Posey is the only 50th round pick in 2005 to make it to the major leagues.

 

As for Harvey, he had Scott Boras as his agent and wanted top ten money for 118th pick. Boras was talking about Harvey, then a High School senior, getting slot money like Porcello at $7.28 million. Even Porcello dropped from top ten to 27th simply because Boras scared other teams away, like the Mets. In fact the Mets passed on Harvey twice that draft because they would not pay Boras's demand to get more than slot value. 

 

So it was not the Angels that were refusing to over pay and in some cases grossly overpay, for High School talent, It was the entire league.

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I can definitely understand not wanting to overpay amateur prospects, but it was my opinion that we should have just paid Harvey. If a top prospect falls to you at later picks, just pay them, especially if  they're a pitcher. I'd just rather us overpay on a number of amateur prospects over the years and have that eventually turn into a good player or two that will be under control for a while, thnn spend much more on some 31 year old free agent that's probably going to decline/disappoint.

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It would be irresponsible to be dropping large bonus money on 118th round picks. That just sets up paying a multiple of that to the next tier above and then continuing until you are shelling out MLB veteran contracts to unproven talent. And there are so many unproven kids out there with great High School credentials that never make it out of AA.

 

You guys are focused on two players from two separate drafts and ignore the 1,460 other non success stories from each of those drafts as basis for paying more money than slot. Go take a look at the draft boards in the 2nd through 5th rounds and see just how many of those names have seen a day in the majors. Then come back and say 118th picks are well worth top 10 or top 20 money.

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It would be irresponsible to be dropping large bonus money on 118th round picks. That just sets up paying a multiple of that to the next tier above and then continuing until you are shelling out MLB veteran contracts to unproven talent. And there are so many unproven kids out there with great High School credentials that never make it out of AA.

 

You guys are focused on two players from two separate drafts and ignore the 1,460 other non success stories from each of those drafts as basis for paying more money than slot. Go take a look at the draft boards in the 2nd through 5th rounds and see just how many of those names have seen a day in the majors. Then come back and say 118th picks are well worth top 10 or top 20 money.

 

It's beyond disingenuous to define Harvey's value as a third round pick, he was an undisputed 1st round talent that fell because of his price tag and college commitment (and for Posey, he was a top few round talent as well.) Your argument treats amateur prospects like there's no way to distinguish one from the other, as imperfect as scouting is, you're still going to tend to find the better players higher in the draft more often than not.

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It's beyond disingenuous to define Harvey's value as a third round pick, he was an undisputed 1st round talent that fell because of his price tag and college commitment (and for Posey, he was a top few round talent as well.) Your argument treats amateur prospects like there's no way to distinguish one from the other, as imperfect as scouting is, you're still going to tend to find the better players higher in the draft more often than not.

 

 

But the problem is, then the 115 other players before him would then be asking for more money.  Especially those first and second rounders on the Angels.  Overpaying a later draft pick is playing right into the Boras wheelhouse of contract negotiations.  

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But the problem is, then the 115 other players before him would then be asking for more money.  Especially those first and second rounders on the Angels.  Overpaying a later draft pick is playing right into the Boras wheelhouse of contract negotiations.  

 

I don't think that's a very realistic argument, it's understood how certain things make draft position not that important at times. See Rick Ankiel's eventual draft position and bonus, and realize it didn't cause much players drafted before him to get more money than him, that would be a bargaining tactic that I would think be laughed at because of how naive and ignorant it is the reality of the baseball draft. I've never seen any evidence that what you're saying actually happens, not when everyone knows those players really belonged in the first round.

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