MLBTR- Halos Would Move Prospect Arms In Trade

[nando714]

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2015/06/pitching-market-notes-wilson-bucs-yankees-dodgers.html

But not Heaney, Newcomb, or Ellis

[Angelsjunky]

I'd hazard that Tropeano and maybe Rhodes are not long for the Angels. Package Wilson and one or both of those two and they should be able to get a decent hitter.

[Second Base]

If the Angels are willing to dangle CJ Wilson like that, it'd seem they intend to clear even more payroll space.  They're already comfortable 15 million under the cap.  If they can get out from the 20 million owed to CJ while adding a hitter who might only cost 5-10 million next year, that suddenly gives them 20-25 million of freedom.  

 

With that sort of money, they could become a major player for the likes of Upton and Heyward. 

[Second Base]

Also, I'm VERY happy the Angels are reportedly unwilling to shop Chris Ellis.  He was a steal in the draft and is going to be a very good SP in the majors in short order. 

[tomsred]

If it's not Harper or maybe Stanton I'd rather keep Joyce.

 

Wow, that's two of us who agree on that one.

[Docwaukee]

I really hope clearing space by trading Wilson doesn't lead to another bloated free agent contract.  

 

BTW, steer clear from Hayward.  

 

Upton is gonna get 200mil because of his age.  no thanks.  

 

I gotta believe that Nate Smith would be a prime target to trade as well.  

[mulwin444]

I really hope clearing space by trading Wilson doesn't lead to another bloated free agent contract.

BTW, steer clear from Hayward.

Upton is gonna get 200mil because of his age. no thanks.

I gotta believe that Nate Smith would be a prime target to trade as well.

Agreed...say no to both Heyward and Upton. Heyward's defense is nice but not an impact bar for what he'll cost. Upton will get an 8-10 contract from someone...just hopefully not through us

[HeavenlyHalos]

I really hope clearing space by trading Wilson doesn't lead to another bloated free agent contract.  

 

BTW, steer clear from Hayward.  

 

Upton is gonna get 200mil because of his age.  no thanks.  

 

I gotta believe that Nate Smith would be a prime target to trade as well.  

 

I'm not so sure Upton gets over $200 million, and it would be insane for any team to give him that much. If you look at those who have been handed those contracts, those players have had much more success than Upton has had. For instance, let's look at the career OPS+ and average WAR at the time of signing their $200+ mil contracts.

 

Pujols: 170, 7.9

Cabrera: 154, 4.9

Stanton: 144, 4.3

Fielder: 143, 2.3 (3.1 oWAR)

Cano: 126, 5.0

Arod (1st): 138, 5.4

Arod (2nd): 147, 6.7

Votto: 151, 4.3

 

Compare that with Upton who has career averages of a 121 OPS+ and 2.5 WAR. You would have to take Fielder's WAR combined with Cano's OPS+ to get a similar player. I just don't see $200 million for him.

 

Of course, all it takes is one team to overvalue him and offense is down quite a bit at the moment and, as you mentioned, he will only be 28 at the time. If that is what it takes to get him, which would be at least an 8-10 year deal, than I agree, we should definitely pass. 

[Docwaukee]

I'm not so sure Upton gets over $200 million, and it would be insane for any team to give him that much. If you look at those who have been handed those contracts, those players have had much more success than Upton has had. For instance, let's look at the career OPS+ and average WAR at the time of signing their $200+ mil contracts.

 

Pujols: 170, 7.9

Cabrera: 154, 4.9

Stanton: 144, 4.3

Fielder: 143, 2.3 (3.1 oWAR)

Cano: 126, 5.0

Arod (1st): 138, 5.4

Arod (2nd): 147, 6.7

Votto: 151, 4.3

 

Compare that with Upton who has career averages of a 121 OPS+ and 2.5 WAR. You would have to take Fielder's WAR combined with Cano's OPS+ to get a similar player. I just don't see $200 million for him.

 

Of course, all it takes is one team to overvalue him and offense is down quite a bit at the moment and, as you mentioned, he will only be 28 at the time. If that is what it takes to get him, which would be at least an 8-10 year deal, than I agree, we should definitely pass. 

 

 

I agree that he's not even close to any of the players that have gotten those contracts.  

 

Stanton got 13 years with an opt out for 325 and he wasn't even a free agent.  This would be his 2nd year of arb.   He's better and younger but got the largest contract in history.  

Votto's contract started at his age 30 season so  2 fewer prime seasons and not a free agent but still 25mil above 200.

 

Arod's first contract was 15 years ago

 

Pujols, Cabrera, Arod's 2nd contract, Cano were all in their 30's when the contract started.  All except cano (31) were 32 so that's at least 3 and mostly 4 years older than upton.  

 

The closest comp in fielder who was going into his 28yo season and frankly, the reason he didn't get more is because he's fat.  

 

You gotta figure he's gonna get 20-25mil aav.  

 

If he were going into his age 32 season like some of the other guys, he'd get something closer to 100mil, but that extra 4 years is going to be worth a ton.  

 

My guess is 9/200.  

[AngelsLakersFan]

I'd love Upton, but I'd hate to be on the hook for a lot of money. After what happened with his brother I don't think I could bring myself to give the guy a long term contract.

 

I'd be down to sign Heyward, but he'll probably get more money than I'd be willing to spend. Defensive value fades fast, and I'm not a big fan of paying for it.

[Glen]

I'd really like for the Angels to get Cespedes but he'll also probably be an overpay.

[DMVol]

I'd be surprised if CJ has much value right now....he's as inconsistent as they come and still owed a lot of money...and his ERA, since his good start in 2014, is probably well over 4.00.....

Edited June 26, 2015 by DMVol

[Second Base]

I really hope clearing space by trading Wilson doesn't lead to another bloated free agent contract.

BTW, steer clear from Hayward.

Upton is gonna get 200mil because of his age. no thanks.

I gotta believe that Nate Smith would be a prime target to trade as well.

I'm

Sort if hoping the Royals mess up somehow and Alex Gordon becomes available. As for Nate Smith, typically I'd say you're right. Younger lefty, experiencing lots of success in AA. Probably keeping him away from AAA SLC to maintain his value and confidence.

I'm thinking other teams may steer clear (which would be a huge bonus for us). Yes, he's added 2 more mph on his fastball recently, but teams usually chase upside when it comes to prospects. They'd rather have a Rhoades or Alcantara over Nate Smith.

[nate]

I hope the only trades the Angels make are for pitching or OF prospects.  They are too many pieces away this season.  Would love to dump Wilson on someone.

[tdawg87]

On one hand I'm glad they want to keep Ellis. On the other hand Ellis is exactly who teams are going to want.

[ukyah]

i really don't get all the love heyward gets around mlb circles. i think he's incredibly average at his best. i wouldn't give him any serious money.

[Inside Pitch]

i really don't get all the love heyward gets around mlb circles. i think he's incredibly average at his best. i wouldn't give him any serious money.

 

His glove...   But paying for a glove is a bad idea.  Thats how the Rangers ended up paying 120 mil to a SS that can't hit.

[tdawg87]

Heyward has a 113 career OPS+. His 108 OPS+ this year would make him the 3rd best hitter on the team. His defense included and he's the second best player on the team. He's pretty much the perfect leadoff hitter for the Angels.

 

Not saying I'd give him a monster deal but he's absolutely worth looking into.

[tdawg87]

@tdawg~ How are is AL Splits?

 

Pretty much exactly what his career numbers are. .771 OPS.

[AngelsLakersFan]

If we target Hayward he'll be priced at a premium due to his age.

 

It's getting more and more difficult to build teams through any means other than consistently drafting near the top half of the first round. Bloated contracts are the future of this franchise until we run through a stretch of bad seasons.

[mulwin444]

I think you have to give Gordon a look...solid defensive LF, good OBP, decent power. I'd go for him before Upton or Hayward

Edited June 27, 2015 by mulwin444

[Second Base]

I think the Royals have an option they can exercise with Gordon.

[ettin]

I think you have to give Gordon a look...solid defensive LF, good OBP, decent power. I'd go for him before Upton or Hayward

 

I considered this thought as a possible write up for my Trade Article series but there are a couple of things that may make this a no-go:

 

1) As it currently stands the Rest Of Season projections on FanGraphs have the Royals only 2 games ahead of us. That is pretty close and the Indians and Tigers are right on our heels. It's still so close that I'm not sure the Angels or the Royals would want to potentially arm/disarm one another. For instance if the Indians take over the AL Central lead, the Royals would be in immediate contention with us and the Tigers (and the Blue Jays) for a Wild Card spot.

 

2) Gordon is basically a face of the franchise for the Royals. To pull him out of their lineup might have too crippling an effect on their team psyche. That may or may not matter to management.

 

He definitely is a consideration without a doubt. He'd be great in left field and could hit lead-off or in the 2-hole.

Edited June 27, 2015 by ettin

[ettin]

I think the Royals have an option they can exercise with Gordon.

 

It's a player option only Scotty which I doubt Gordon exercises unless he is particularly loyal to the Royals?

[Dick B Back]

I could see Gordon giving the Royals the home town discount. He's spent his entire career with them and there's nothing like playing for a winner.