Randal Grichuk

[Scott34]

I'm not big on counting stats at all but Grichuk hit his 20th HR which is great for a couple of reasons.

 

1) He's been able to stay healthy and accrue the ABs needed to do this.

2) A .470ish SLUG is pretty good for the Texas League

 

He could have a monster year in SLC at age 22 next year.

[FireThemAll]

OBP still only at .305. Great to see the good power numbers, and he has certainly had a far better year than Cowart and Cron, but I still see him as more of a 4th OF long term. Nothing wrong with a 4th OF who plays good defense, has solid speed, and has pop. Should be a nice piece for our bench in a year or two.

[Dave Saltzer]

I still believe that Grichuk will be a successful ML player. Where and how we get him in our lineup is a big question, but he's a great guy and I believe he will succeed.

[Angel Oracle]

Everything is there, except the plate discipline.

Decent/solid speed and range, great arm, and of course the power

 

He did just turn 22, still young enough.

[James]

I still dont know why you guys are high on this guy. I see so many issues in his approach. He did improve in High A after being rather average most of the time there. I have said many times that I hope I am wrong but I just dont see him being an everyday player in the big show. The one thing that gives me hope is his youth. 

[Inside Pitch]

I still dont know why you guys are high on this guy. I see so many issues in his approach. He did improve in High A after being rather average most of the time there. I have said many times that I hope I am wrong but I just dont see him being an everyday player in the big show. The one thing that gives me hope is his youth. 

 

I see a guy that's been below the league average age at just about every level, has genuine power, and above average speed/defense.  I see a guy who has put up a better second half of the season in just about every season he has played which lends credence to the idea that he figures things out as he goes along and isn't just getting by on ability.   He's got 51 XBH as a 21 year old in a park that completely destroys RHBs -- his 111 total hits put him in the league's top 20, and he's done this while being completely unlucky based on his .262 BABIP, 40 points lower than both Lindsey and Cron.  We are talking about a guy who could put on a massive power show as a 22 year in SLC..  

 

The lack of plate discipline is a real concern, but even that aspect of his game has typically improved as the season wore on.  Because he's shown the ability to improve there is hope his plat discipline can get better.  He's a bit pull happy but unless he suddenly starts putting the ball on the ground more it's not really a massive concern.  People will try to point to Brandon Wood as a parallel, but we aren't talking about a guy with 149 Ks in AA -- he's got 81

 

 

So what is it you see?

[James]

Not much...

 

In all seriousness you really didnt say anything much different than I did but just in more detail. I just see a 4th OF at best. Others see more, happens all the time among scouts let alone people on a message board. His second half last year in High A was very encouraging as his August this season. Like you said, his strikeouts are not over alarming but to me his lack of walks are. I do love his defense which is why I see a 4th OF in his future. He seems to work hard and is still young so he has time and he may pan out more in line with what some here expect. We shall see, I have been wrong just as often as I have been correct when it comes to prospects in our organization. 

[Inside Pitch]

Not much...

 

In all seriousness you really didnt say anything much different than I did but just in more detail. I just see a 4th OF at best. Others see more, happens all the time among scouts let alone people on a message board. His second half last year in High A was very encouraging as his August this season. Like you said, his strikeouts are not over alarming but to me his lack of walks are. I do love his defense which is why I see a 4th OF in his future. He seems to work hard and is still young so he has time and he may pan out more in line with what some here expect. We shall see, I have been wrong just as often as I have been correct when it comes to prospects in our organization. 

 

 

Since you are choosing not to elaborate on what you see are the "many issues with his approach", I guess you're basing it on gut feeling?  I'm not trying to be difficult, I'm genuinely curious what it is you are picking up on.  It's a quest for info, not a "you don't know shit" sort of mindset.

 

You say our views are essentially the same but that I went into greater detail -- only you don't "see much" and I see things you seemingly don't think are worth giving much credence to..  Sorry, I don't see a guy's who's a 4th OFer at best, I see a guy who is being underrated due to people not fully understanding the impact of age vs league and in his case, park effects.  He's anything but a sure bet, but his walk rate this season is actually better than last year and his K rate has gone from 22.1% in Low A, to 16.7 in AA.  That is a reason for hope in spite of the iffy 5.6% walk rate.

 

I'm not saying you're wrong mind you..  he could end up nothing better than a 4th OFer.... I just think he's profiling as being a bit better than that currently.  That bad BABIP is essentially the difference between a .250/.300/.470 season and a .275/.335/.500 season.  Had he put those numbers up as a 21 year old in that park, I'd be willing to bet more people would be talking him up. 

 

BTW. anyone that had read my posts for any length of time knows I tend to put extreme value in being able to get on base and plate discipline, I just think Grichuk isn't the usual Angels hackerfific prospect.  

[James]

I can agree with you on strength and weaknesses in his game but we can disagree that he will be able to improve his weaknesses enough to be an everyday ML OFer. I just see him being able to do enough to be a backup and you see him being able to improve enough to be an everyday player. it is near impossible to predict what happens with these prospects, I hope your prediction is more inline with how it plays out.  

[Make Angels Great Again]

He's Luis Jimenez with less contact and more power.

[Inside Pitch]

I can agree with you on strength and weaknesses in his game but we can disagree that he will be able to improve his weaknesses enough to be an everyday ML OFer. I just see him being able to do enough to be a backup and you see him being able to improve enough to be an everyday player. it is near impossible to predict what happens with these prospects, I hope your prediction is more inline with how it plays out.  

 

I'm not really predicting anything, just saying the kid is better than some are trying to make him out to be.  The numbers look meh, but there is more there once you scratch below the surface and there is that history of getting better as the year goes on.  That can be one of two things -- he is learning and improving as he goes, or he can beat up on guys closer to his age and level of experience when they get called up a level.  Both of those things are pluses.

 

I still have no idea what these issues you feel he has other than we both agree he doesn't walk much.  Look up Torii Hunter sometime, tell me what the walk rate looked like at a similar age, not that they are good comps but he's an example of a guy with a weak walk rate that rode other abilities to MLB.   Anyway.... IMHO, if the power, arm, defense, and speed all hold up and are all better than average tools -- he has a better than average chance of being more than a back up ... particularly in the NL

 

BTW.... MLB players with walk rates of 5.5 or below this year:  Jose Altuve, Adeinny Hechevarria, Chris Johnson, Marlon Byrd, Carlos Beltran, Shane Victorino, Howie Kendrick, Nolan Arenado, Starling Marte, Ichiro Suzuki, Daniel Murphy, Torii Hunter, Erick Aybar, Salvador Perez, Alfonso Soriano..    Guys with a walk rate of 4.0 or lower.... JP Arrencibia, Manny Machado, Jean Segura, Wilin Rosario, Starlin Castro, Alexei Ramirez,and with the second to lowest walk rate in all of MLB....  Adam Jones.

 

Not a bad list of back ups...

[tdawg87]

He's definitely a hacker but he's Rickey Henderson when compared to guys like Cron. Not sure if he'll ever have the power that Trumbo has but it isn't far off. 20 HR through 116 games at Arkansas is nothing to sneeze at. I'd keep him there next year and see if he improves his average.

[FireThemAll]

The thing I like about Grichuk is his hand eye coordination. Unlike Trumbo, he can make contact with the ball very often.

[Hollyw00d]

I still dont know why you guys are high on this guy. I see so many issues in his approach. He did improve in High A after being rather average most of the time there. I have said many times that I hope I am wrong but I just dont see him being an everyday player in the big show. The one thing that gives me hope is his youth. 

 

a .338 wOBA in AA at his age is not bad,  he's definitely not the most patient hitter but he has produced well at each level and could be a solid depth option at the major league level.

 

I don't think he'll be a starting outfielder on a competing team, but I think he'll be a "shuck-type" of player.   Very good backup, middle of the road regular.

[Angelsjunky]

Grichuk could actually be a good player. His lack of plate discipline will keep him from being great, but he seems to have better contact ability than Trumbo and only a bit less lower. .280 with 25-30 HR and 15 SB and good defense is a pretty good player.

[Scott34]

2-2 with 2 HRs today.

 

It's the 2nd inning.

[Second Base]

I dunno if we'll see Grichuk his .280 in the majors.  The batting average simply doesn't seem as if it'll transfer as much as his power would. 

[FireThemAll]

The kid can hit. Grichuk>>>>>>>Cron

 

#TradeCronToday

[Dave Saltzer]

Scott, I really have to disagree with you. Grichuk has a great mental attitude and work ethic. It shows how he has been making adjustments each year at each level. I think he can hit 250-260 in the Majors with 20+ HRs for several years, with quality defense and maybe more for peak seasons. That's a good Of makeup there.

[Tyler]

So where's the disagreement?

[Second Base]

Exactly what I'm wondering.  I think we agree on this one Dave.  Grichuk hitting .250 with 20+ HR per season is pretty much exactly what I see happening assuming he's an everyday player somewhere.  With our OF depth I don't think it comes here, but I'm confident it'll happen somewhere.  It'll be a sad day when he's traded, he's a personal favorite. 

[Angel Oracle]

He also strikes me as a good teammate guy, with some grit.

[Team Cooley]

He's still one of my favorite prospects.  ALOT of power when he hits. 

[eaterfan]

The lack of walks is a huge concern. I understand that he's a hard worker and that is great but that doesn't mean he'll overcome being a hacker. Trumbo was also noted for being a hard worker and that hasn't helped his patience at all.

 

Also, I haven't seen him play this year but I seem to recall scouting reports saying he was too pull happy with his approach.

Edited September 13, 2013 by eaterfan

[Inside Pitch]

The lack of walks is a huge concern. I understand that he's a hard worker and that is great but that doesn't mean he'll overcome being a hacker. Trumbo was also noted for being a hard worker and that hasn't helped his patience at all.

 

Also, I haven't seen him play this year but I seem to recall scouting reports saying he was too pull happy with his approach.

 

 

Pull happy is problematic when a player Ks a lot.   His 17% K rate in AA isn't an eyesore... it's right in line with Lindsey's and lower than what Trout posted in AA, albeit, he's older than Trout was.

 

There was exactly ONE player the same age or younger than Grichuk who hit more HRs than he did..  Domingo Santana of Houston, who at 20 years old hit 25 Hrs and struck out 139 times in 112 games (29.2%), in one of the Texas League's launching pads.  

 

I do agree the Walk rate needs to get better, but he's still very young and there time for him to improve.