Scouting note on Tanaka from Wayne Graczyk from the Japan Times & Japanball

[AngelsLakersFan]

... really?  not even going to dignify that as anything more than a cheap shot except to say that pitching once a week over there every 7 days (or were you not aware of that) hardly makes it impressive.

 

Ya you are probably right. 

[tdawg87]

"Ace money" is a lot higher than it was a few years ago. When Kershaw gets his contract, you should know what "ace money" is. Tanaka isn't going to get anything close to Kershaw.

[Stradling]

I'm guessing Tanaka will get around $18-20 million. Verlander will get $28 million, Greinke around $25 million. So really Tanaka will be getting about 25-30% less than Ace money. Oh and is Greinke really an ace?

[Brent Maguire]

The cost for a win for WAR is about 5-6 million this offseason.

Which means if Tanaka is getting paid 18-20 million a year, he should be about a 3-4 WAR pitcher.

Does anyone really think 3-4 wins is unrealistic with Tanaka? I sure don't.

[gotbeer]

So no one is concerned that they are getting baseball advice from Wayne Gretzky?  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[floplag]

The things i have listed as concerns were not made up by me.  I referenced the articles from legit sources.. and yet you guys choose to completely disregard them and accept only the positive and read only the things that support your views as fact. 
I don't know if its wishful thinking or what i dont know but i dont get how you can simply pretend they dont exist.

whatever its moot.. im pissing in the wind at this point... All ill say is that IF we are the ones to make this signing i pray to god you guys are right.. that's about all i have left on the matter.

[Chuck]

So no one is concerned that they are getting baseball advice from Wayne Gretzky?

Ha, a couple people on social media read it that way. lol

[tdawg87]

The things i have listed as concerns were not made up by me.  I referenced the articles from legit sources.. and yet you guys choose to completely disregard them and accept only the positive and read only the things that support your views as fact. 

 

It's funny because you are literally doing the exact same thing. In fact, the "sources" you have referenced in the past really don't support your view at all. You just see them that way because they don't say "TANAKA IS THE 2ND COMING OF CHRIST".

[Halos of Anaheim]

Floplag makes me want to start a petition to bring downvotes to this forum. 

 

You do realize one of the things that makes him more enticing is that the ball that has been used in the Japanese league in the past two years has been juiced, right? As in it's been easier to hit home runs/extra base hits with it then when Darvish was pitching there. The league ERA has risen by about .40 the past two years while his ERA and peripherals have gone up. The best attribute of his is his command, something our pitching is really in need of. A guy that likes to go 7+ innings and avoids walks very well. 

Edited January 12, 2014 by Halos of Anaheim

[Chuck]

More on Wayne Graczyk from 2010.

 

Wayne Graczyk with JapanBall.com

 

 

By Chuck Richter - AngelsWin.com Executive Editor

 

AngelsWin.com was recently contacted by one of the best known editors and sports writers in the industry, Wayne Graczyk, to talk about Hideki Matsui; what are Angels saying about the acquisition and how do we predict he'll do in his first season with the Angels after spending seven seasons with the New York Yankees?

 

Graczyk is the compiler & editor of the annual Japan Pro Baseball Fan Handbook and Media Guide, now in its 35th year. Graczyk, who has lived in Japan for 40 years and served as a Sports Editor of the widely read Tokyo Weekender for 27 of them, now has a popular baseball column in the Japan Times and is a frequent contributor to JapanBall.com, operated by Bob Bavasi, a baseball executive and son of the late Buzzie Bavasi, who was general manager of the Angels and Dodgers.

 

Graczyk also covers Japan for Baseball America, Major League Baseball and JapanBall.com. For years he was a TV broadcaster for the Tokyo Giants, continuing to cover the ball club now as a reporter.

 

After the conclusion of our interview, which will be published in the Japan Times this weekend, Graczyk kindly offered to mail me his Japan Pro Baseball Media Guide, which I received yesterday. I'm halfway through the guide and I have to tell you, it's a great resource to have as a baseball fan — one that I believe everyone should own. You can pick one up on his Website HERE for just $16.95.

 

Here are some more details on the guide. It is the only media guide for Japanese professional baseball in English that is endorsed by the Commissioner's Office, the Central and Pacific Leagues and the Japan Pro Baseball Players Union.

 

This comprehensive reference guide includes the following essential information:

 

    * League Directories

    * Team Directories

    * Minor League Information.

    * Schedules

    * Full Rosters

    * Player photos

    * Detailed stadium information

    * In-depth statistics

    * Foreign player profiles

    * and much more.

 

One thing is for certain, well at least in 2010: The New York Yankees and Boston Red Sox will no longer dominate Japanese television. Graczyk noted that American League West Baseball would take over as the most watched two teams in Japan with the likes of Seattle's Ichiro Suzuki and new Angel Matsui — who will face each other 19 times in 2010. So, Angels fans, be proud, cheer loud and wear red instead. The Japanese Baseball fans are watching.

 

Look for more from Wayne Graczyk and me over the course of the 2010 season with regards to Matsui, Angels Baseball and how the fans are digging the Japanese star.

 

For the sake of review: AngelsWin.com members and Angels fans on the Internet, order your copy of the Japan Pro Baseball Media Guide by Wayne Graczyk today and look for the voice of Angels fans,AngelsWin.com, in the Japan Times this weekend.

[Chuck]

This was kind of cool, getting some website love in a major newspaper in Japan, in the Japan Times.

 

 

Angels fans excited about Godzilla’s move to Southern California

 

by Wayne Graczyk

 

We can expect to see a lot more Los Angeles Angels games than the New York Yankees on NHK and J Sports in 2010 because of Hideki Matsui, especially when the Angels play the Seattle Mariners with Ichiro Suzuki.

 

Japanese fans at home and also in Southern California are excited about the addition of the 2009 World Series MVP to the Angels lineup, and one of the most thrilled American followers of the team is Chuck Richter who founded, funds and maintains www.angelswin.com, a Web site devoted to the Angels. Its slogan is “Where Angels Fans Are @, Unraveling Angels Baseball One Thread at a Time.”

 

The 39-year-old Richter is a native of Orange County, where the Angels play their home games in Anaheim, but he currently lives in the Seattle area and established the Web site in 2003 (the year after the Angels won their only World Series) as a hobby. It has expanded into a talk forum for Angels fans, 24 hours a day, seven days a week, all year-round.

 

There are more than 1,600 registered members of AngelsWin.com, but Richter says the site gets 4,000-5,000 hits per day. His blog is included in the content, and he insists the fan base is there and growing all the time.

 

“It has really surpassed my expectations,” he said during a recent telephone interview and, since the rumors began about Matsui’s anticipated signing by the American League club, traffic on the site has increased with messages from fans in Matsui’s home country.

 

“When word spread that Hideki would probably be joining the Angels, we got more hits than ever from Japan, and we expect the numbers to spike when the season begins,” said Richter.

 

He added that getting Matsui’s bat in the middle of the order is going to add even more punch to the already potent lineup of the 2009 AL West Division champions and helps make up for the loss of free agents Chone Figgins (third baseman gone to Seattle) and Vladimir Guerrero (outfielder and DH who signed with the Texas Rangers).

 

“I know a lot of fans will embrace Matsui. Though coming off knee surgery, he put up great stats (28 home runs, 90 RBIs, .274) in less than 500 at-bats (456, to be exact), and he should more than make up for the loss of Guerrero,” said Richter. “Putting Hideki in there with the likes of (outfielders) Bobby Abreu (15 HRs, 103 RBIs in 2009), Torii Hunter (22, 90) and the others makes for a stacked lineup.”

 

The “others” include first baseman Kendry Morales (34, 108), outfielder Juan Rivera (25, 88), third baseman Brandon Wood (22, 72 at Triple-Salt Lake), second sacker Howie Kendrick (10, 61), shortstop Erick Aybar (.312 with 58 RBIs) and catcher Mike Napoli (20, 56). Get used to their names; you’ll be seeing a lot of them on TV in Japan this coming season.

 

Though his Web site is unofficial, Richter says it has the blessing of the Angels ballclub, whose staff has cooperated with him and encouraged the fan forum.

 

“They gave me a media pass so I can enter the clubhouse, the field and the press box to perform interviews, and we’ve been talked about on live radio and telecasts by former Angels play-by-play announcers, Steve Physioc and Rex Hudler,” said Richter. (Yes, that is the Rex Hudler who played second base for the Yakult Swallows in 1993.)

 

Richter also said a highlight of the season for him is actually meeting and mixing twice a year with many of the fans with whom he interacts on the Web site.

 

“We go to spring training in Tempe, Ariz., and we get about 200 people from angelswin.com who show up. Some folks with the Angels join us at a sports bar, too,” he said. “Then at mid-season, usually during the weekend closest to the Fourth of July, several hundred of us meet and have a barbecue and a softball game before seeing our favorite team play. If the Angels are on the road, we do it another time.”

 

Just as Japanese fans are welcome to submit their thoughts on the site, says Richter, they are invited to the get-togethers in Tempe and at the BBQ grill.

“I know there is large pool of Japanese fans in Los Angeles, about 20 miles (32 km) north of Orange County and Anaheim, and I am sure many will come to see Matsui,” he predicted.

 

Though he lives in the state of Washington, Richter says he is a lifelong Angels fan, and he got hooked on the team as a youngster when he used to ride in his stepfather’s truck.

“My stepdad always had the games on the radio,” he recalls. “I’ve been hooked on Angels baseball ever since.”

 

He was asked by USA Today to blog during the playoffs last October, and he’s hoping the Angels will make it to the playoffs — and the World Series — again in 2010 with their newly acquired “Godzilla.”

 

“I think Hideki may do even better at Angel Stadium than last season in New York. Sure, Yankee Stadium has that short right-field porch that favors left-handed hitters, but Matsui had a higher slugging percentage, on-base percentage and generally better stats on the road,” Richter pointed out.

 

With the above-listed Angels lineup, Richter believes No. 55 will have more opportunities and will put up better numbers than in ’09.

The Angels open their regular-season schedule on April 5, at home against the Minnesota Twins. The 2010 Major League Baseball All-Star Game takes place at Angel Stadium too, scheduled for July 13.

 

Think Matsui will be in it?

 

* * * * *

 

Contact Wayne Graczyk at: wayne@JapanBall.com

 

http://www.japantimes.co.jp/sports/2010/01/24/sports/angels-fans-excited-about-godzillas-move-to-southern-california/#.UtL9ZbTXJhU

[floplag]

oh no downvotes?  really?  god some of you really cant handle people that disagree with your conclusions.  Save the insults for the political forum which is a joke if your not a liberal dem anyway i gave up on that i guess the general agree or get attacked mentality carries over here to anymore.

We are ALL guessing.. noone knows what this guy will do, yet you are 100% convinced of your opinion and its correctness.. as i said all that's left at this point is the prayer that if we sing him that you are right and im wrong or this team takes another huge hit to the gut.

im done with it.. we will see at the end i guess.  If he performs to the levels you expect ill admit i was wrong.. im man enough, i wonder if any of you will be if im right.

[YouthofToday]

Flop, I have no idea whether he will great or good. Will he be overpaid for his production? Probably, but if he is a 3.5 WAR pitcher and he gets about $20 million, is that much of an overpay, considering his age and the cost of free agent pitching these days?

I also think he has value that no other starter out there has and that's marketability for Arte. I know that doesn't result to wins on the field immediately, but the more revenue the bigger the budget. The bigger the budget the more you can spend on players like Trout.

1 WAR is probably worth $6.5 million right now on the market. A 3.5 WAR pitcher at Tanaka's age should get an an AAV of $20 million and at least 5 years.

[YouthofToday]

Ace money is basically more than $25 AAV with a contract bearing $200 million. If Kershaw actually hits the open market, and remains dominant and healthy, he will land more than $250 million.

[ettin]

The cost for a win for WAR is about 5-6 million this offseason.

Which means if Tanaka is getting paid 18-20 million a year, he should be about a 3-4 WAR pitcher.

Does anyone really think 3-4 wins is unrealistic with Tanaka? I sure don't.

 

Actually AB the cost of 1 WAR was calculated earlier in the off-season at about $6.2MM and that was before the Cano and Shoo contracts. It is probably sitting at about $6.5MM now and generally rises year to year about 10% historically, although the influx of new money escalated it to about 14% this season.

 

I agree that Tanaka is probably around a 3-3.5 WAR pitcher, so I really see his contract averaging approximately $20-25MM per season on a 5-8 year contract in my opinion.

[Brent Maguire]

You're right Ettin. That proves my point even more!

I remember seeing Dave Cameron say it was around 6 million. I just couldn't remember the exact figure.

[ettin]

You're right Ettin. That proves my point even more!

I remember seeing Dave Cameron say it was around 6 million. I just couldn't remember the exact figure.

 

Actually as I think about it a little more if you add in the 10% year to year inflation, Tanaka's contract can and probably will be in the $25MM per season realm:

 

Year 1 ($6.5MM) x 3 WAR: $19.5MM

Year 2 ($7.15MM) x 3 WAR: $21.45MM

Year 3 ($7.865MM) x 3 WAR: $23.595MM

Year 4 ($8.6515MM) x 3 WAR: $25.9545MM

Year 5 ($9.51665MM) x 3 WAR: $28.54995MM

Year 6 ($10.468135MM) x 3 WAR: $31.404945MM

 

That is a 6-year contract valuation at a reasonable 3 WAR per year over the next 6 years into his age 31 season (where he will hit the market again for his 2nd payday). That is a total of $150.454395MM or more simply a 6 year/$150MM deal ($25MM per year).

 

I guess that is what I'd expect. If a team thinks he performs higher then of course that number will go up.

Edited January 13, 2014 by ettin

[YouthofToday]

Actually as I think about it a little more if you add in the 10% year to year inflation, Tanaka's contract can and probably will be in the $25MM per season realm:

Year 1 ($6.5MM) x 3 WAR: $19.5MM

Year 2 ($7.15MM) x 3 WAR: $21.45MM

Year 3 ($7.865MM) x 3 WAR: $23.595MM

Year 4 ($8.6515MM) x 3 WAR: $25.9545MM

Year 5 ($9.51665MM) x 3 WAR: $28.54995MM

Year 6 ($10.468135MM) x 3 WAR: $31.404945MM

That is a 6-year contract valuation at a reasonable 3 WAR per year over the next 6 years into his age 31 season (where he will hit the market again for his 2nd payday). That is a total of $150.454395MM or more simply a 6 year/$150MM deal ($25MM per year).

I guess that is what I'd expect. If a team thinks he performs higher then of course that number will go up.

So Greinke money.

[Docwaukee]

I think it would be very odd for a dozen or so major league teams (or more) to be wrong about him and have him end up at a 1-2 WAR guy.

I think it would be very odd for this guy to have the success he's had in NPBL yet have him fall flat on his face in mlb.  

A reasonable assumption of Pujols and Hamilton would have been that they'd have performed much better than they have to this point.  

 

We've all seen recent worst case scenario and we should certainly be prepared for that.  

 

I don't care whether the naysayers or optimists on this board are right.  I care about whether our scouts and front office are right.  So I will let them try to figure it out.  

 

I will be pumped if we get him and bummed if we don't though because regardless if he underperformes a bit relative to his contract, he's potentially one of the best and youngest pitchers we will have access to for awhile.  So the upside for now and long term seems worth the risk IF our scouts say so.   

[moccasin]

I've watched Tanaka a lot in Japan as well. He's not actually a slow starter, it's more about the nature of Japanese baseball, where most hitters are singles hitters.

He pitches to contact until runners get on, then he starts cranking up, throws 95mph+, and tries to strike people out.

In the bigs, he won't always have that luxury, because good MLB lineups have power top to bottom.

[Mark68]

The very crux of my problem with him is that we have no friggin clue if we will be a 3.5 WAR pitcher or better or worse.. there is no track record at the ML level to support that assumption.

I've read both positive and not so glowing reviews on him.. enough to suggest that assuming you will get what you hope to get is probably a best case scenario, and the worst case could be a lot worse.

Is he "probably" the best out there... yes, i guess so... but that doesnt always make it a great signing.

Some of you deal in too many absolutes... this is not one, no matter how hard you want it to be. 

Again, i have never said i think he will suck, or be a bad pitcher.. only that i think there is reason to believe he could far under perform what he will get paid.. with our roster, can we really afford that?  consider for a moment what it would do to this team is he is more of a #4 or 5, than the #2 you all paint him to be?

ANY pitcher that we sign this offseason will be overpaid. Every. Single. One.

 

It's the nature of the beast.

 

For what Garza will provide over the length of whatever contract he gets, he will be VASTLY overpaid, considering he's probably got two, maybe three decent years left. I'd rather take my chances with the devil I don't know, than the devil I know won't perform to the level of the contract he'll get.

[floplag]

ANY pitcher that we sign this offseason will be overpaid. Every. Single. One.

 

It's the nature of the beast.

 

For what Garza will provide over the length of whatever contract he gets, he will be VASTLY overpaid, considering he's probably got two, maybe three decent years left. I'd rather take my chances with the devil I don't know, than the devil I know won't perform to the level of the contract he'll get.

 

Fair enough.. i can live with that logic... but the real issue is how much overpayed for the value.   We dont know that yet of course but paying lets say 25 mil per year for 6 years to Tanaka would be far worse than lets say 60 mil over 4 to Garza.  I am not suggesting he would settle for that im just saying, the real value will depend on the length and annual value whihc at this point we only know rumors.

The actual performance of the 2 over the next 2 or 3 years is likely to be comparable.. its after that Tanaka become the better bet of course so the hope is that you make up the value on the back end but for the first couple of years the percentage of overpay would be far higher.

All things being equal you are correct... we would get more better years out of Tanaka.. ive never disputed this, the issue is how many at what cost and impact to the club.

[Chuck]

All I know is that if we land Tanaka we're getting a guy who at the very worst will be as good as either Weaver or Wilson.

At best we're getting a Adam Wainwright type, or Yu Darvish lite.

[Docwaukee]

now I'm gonna be disappointed if we don't get him. 

[HaloMagic]

Tanaka would be outstanding, but Garza puts this team in contention for the AL West and a 90+ win team IMO. I'm fine with either, the unknown of Tanaka concerns me. We've seen this type of hype FAIL with Matzusaka, Ishii and Irabu before.

All I know is that if we land Tanaka we're getting a guy who at the very worst will be as good as either Weaver or Wilson.

At best we're getting a Adam Wainwright type, or Yu Darvish lite.