Scouting note on Tanaka from Wayne Graczyk from the Japan Times & Japanball

[Chuck]

Those of you who were with us back in 2010 when we signed Hideki Matsui may remember I was interviewed from Wayne Graczyk from the Japan Times for an Angels fan take of having Godzilla on our team. I then in turn interviewed him later on for his work with JapanBall.com and life as an American reporter in Japan working for the Japan Times. (I'll post those links later, I'm mobile)

Anyhow, I reached out to Wayne to see if he can add anything new on Tanaka that we don't already know and he had this to say.

Hi Chuck:

Nice to hear from you. I really can't add much more about Tanaka, other than he has all the tools & all the pitches necessary to make him a successful major league pitcher. One interesting quirk about him, though, is his uncanny ability to crank up the speed on his fastball as the game goes along. You might see him max out at about 145 kph (90.63 mph) early in a game & think something's wrong or he's having an off-day. But then, in the 6th or 7th inning, he's throwing 155 kph (96.88 mph), & the hitters, at least in Japan, have had a tough time adjusting to this.

Good luck with your website.

All the best,

Wayne G. in Tokyo

[Mauch Won]

If we sign him, you will need to repost/bump this at the beginning of every start to avoid general panic.

[Blarg]

So he would be better as a 7th inning setup man.

[Angelsjunky]

If that's true, Tanaka could be as good as advertised.

[Chuck]

So he would be better as a 7th inning setup man.

No, that would mean he'd have to be throwing 5-6 innings prior.

What it means is he changing speeds very well

[Blarg]

Just have him warming up sooner. Problem solved.

 

Look if you are not going to use stats to the teams best advantage I don't know what to say.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Other than there is no sarcasm font.

[Stradling]

Just have him warming up sooner. Problem solved.

Look if you are not going to use stats to the teams best advantage I don't know what to say.

Other than there is no sarcasm font.

Wasn't it Santana who they had to do some stupid shit to help him get through his first inning issues?

[Blarg]

Toilet paper up his nose.

 

Edited January 12, 2014 by Eric Notti

[nando714]

Verlander like...not speed wise but the way his velocity cranks up as the game goes on

[Angelsjunky]

Toilet paper up his nose.

 

 

I think I saw that guy mopping at the local supermarket.

[Brent Maguire]

Toilet paper up his nose.

 

F*ck it lets pitch!

[floplag]

As we all know im not high on him.. not because i think he will be terrible but because i think he will be drastically over payed for the production.

 

So... that having been said i find the wording of this assessment a bit bothering... the implication that he would be a "successful" major league pitcher does not imply ace, star, or what does that even mean?  If he truly thought he was going to be a large success i would have expected different wording... maybe its just me but to me i dont find this a ringing endorsement.

 

Again it isnt that i think he will be bad or anything, just not worth the 20 mil he will probably get paid, or even close.
 

[tdawg87]

As we all know im not high on him.. not because i think he will be terrible but because i think he will be drastically over payed for the production.

 

So... that having been said i find the wording of this assessment a bit bothering... the implication that he would be a "successful" major league pitcher does not imply ace, star, or what does that even mean?  If he truly thought he was going to be a large success i would have expected different wording... maybe its just me but to me i dont find this a ringing endorsement.

 

Again it isnt that i think he will be bad or anything, just not worth the 20 mil he will probably get paid, or even close.

 

 

Only floplag could see an obviously positive report and turn it into a negative one.

[Stradling]

Flop, I have no idea whether he will great or good. Will he be overpaid for his production? Probably, but if he is a 3.5 WAR pitcher and he gets about $20 million, is that much of an overpay, considering his age and the cost of free agent pitching these days?

I also think he has value that no other starter out there has and that's marketability for Arte. I know that doesn't result to wins on the field immediately, but the more revenue the bigger the budget. The bigger the budget the more you can spend on players like Trout.

[floplag]

Only floplag could see an obviously positive report and turn it into a negative one.

 

...or may be we all see what we want to see.. as i implied in the post itself.

[Stradling]

So you want to see him as overrated, got it.

[floplag]

Flop, I have no idea whether he will great or good. Will he be overpaid for his production? Probably, but if he is a 3.5 WAR pitcher and he gets about $20 million, is that much of an overpay, considering his age and the cost of free agent pitching these days?

I also think he has value that no other starter out there has and that's marketability for Arte. I know that doesn't result to wins on the field immediately, but the more revenue the bigger the budget. The bigger the budget the more you can spend on players like Trout.

 

The very crux of my problem with him is that we have no friggin clue if we will be a 3.5 WAR pitcher or better or worse.. there is no track record at the ML level to support that assumption.

I've read both positive and not so glowing reviews on him.. enough to suggest that assuming you will get what you hope to get is probably a best case scenario, and the worst case could be a lot worse.

Is he "probably" the best out there... yes, i guess so... but that doesnt always make it a great signing.

Some of you deal in too many absolutes... this is not one, no matter how hard you want it to be. 

Again, i have never said i think he will suck, or be a bad pitcher.. only that i think there is reason to believe he could far under perform what he will get paid.. with our roster, can we really afford that?  consider for a moment what it would do to this team is he is more of a #4 or 5, than the #2 you all paint him to be?

[floplag]

So you want to see him as overrated, got it.

 

No.. again, please read the posts before attacking them.

I see him as overrated based on the expected salary. 

IF he could be had for closer to 10 mil than 20 i would be fine with it.. the risk would be worth it.. but at 20 you better get something that is a guarantee, which he is not.

[Cdaniel]

Flop, I have no idea whether he will great or good. Will he be overpaid for his production? Probably, but if he is a 3.5 WAR pitcher and he gets about $20 million, is that much of an overpay, considering his age and the cost of free agent pitching these days?

I also think he has value that no other starter out there has and that's marketability for Arte. I know that doesn't result to wins on the field immediately, but the more revenue the bigger the budget. The bigger the budget the more you can spend on players like Trout.

Niese wouldn't be a bad plan B or C. Lefty under contract for 5 more years( 5mil, 7 mil, 9 mil, 10 mil option and 11 mil option). Projected to avg around 2 war pitcher each year for the contract. Gives us money to sign trout and go after Max or another big FA pitcher in 2015.

[SoWhat]

Lol @ giving him Scott Feldman money. You do realize what the price for pitching is these days, right?

[AngelsLakersFan]

No.. again, please read the posts before attacking them.

I see him as overrated based on the expected salary. 

IF he could be had for closer to 10 mil than 20 i would be fine with it.. the risk would be worth it.. but at 20 you better get something that is a guarantee, which he is not.

 

Tanaka was second in complete games last year. You should love him.

[greginpsca]

Wasn't it Santana who they had to do some stupid shit to help him get through his first inning issues?

Nolan Ryan had that problem getting thru the 1st inning. Was not uncommon to see him walk 2-3 batters in the 1st. If he gave up a run or 2, he would usually lose 1-0 or 2-1. If he got thru the 1st without giving up any runs, it usually meant a win.

[floplag]

Lol @ giving him Scott Feldman money. You do realize what the price for pitching is these days, right?

 

LOL @ assuming another poeron isnt aware of what pitching costs... but again also not the point.

Yes im well aware, but when this player could easily end up pitching more like Feldman who last year put up a combined 3.86 ERA with a 1.18 WHIP between Bal and Chi with a very solid K/BB ratio.

 

You guys are convinced its a lock to get a 3-3.5 ERA and a #2-3 guy... i get that, fine, i am not convined.  Not when i read things like "flat fastball", and the fact that some of his key rations have gone down the last couple of years... specifically his K rate.  Those are red flags.. you choose to view them with rose colors glasses... i choose to say those terms do not merit the money he will get paid.

 

The thing you ignore in your "what starting pitching gets paid" angle is that you are assuming he is aplayer that merits that type of investment.. based on his age and other factors.. i am completely aware of the viewpoint, the problem is that i do not agree with the assumptions.  If im going to pay ace money, i want an ace... not a solid #3, not sure how much simpler i can make that point.

[floplag]

Tanaka was second in complete games last year. You should love him.

 

... really?  not even going to dignify that as anything more than a cheap shot except to say that pitching once a week over there every 7 days (or were you not aware of that) hardly makes it impressive.

[AngelsLakersFan]

LOL @ assuming another poeron isnt aware of what pitching costs... but again also not the point.

Yes im well aware, but when this player could easily end up pitching more like Feldman who last year put up a combined 3.86 ERA with a 1.18 WHIP between Bal and Chi with a very solid K/BB ratio.

 

You guys are convinced its a lock to get a 3-3.5 ERA and a #2-3 guy... i get that, fine, i am not convined.  Not when i read things like "flat fastball", and the fact that some of his key rations have gone down the last couple of years... specifically his K rate.  Those are red flags.. you choose to view them with rose colors glasses... i choose to say those terms do not merit the money he will get paid.

 

The thing you ignore in your "what starting pitching gets paid" angle is that you are assuming he is aplayer that merits that type of investment.. based on his age and other factors.. i am completely aware of the viewpoint, the problem is that i do not agree with the assumptions.  If im going to pay ace money, i want an ace... not a solid #3, not sure how much simpler i can make that point.

 

What exactly is 'ace money'? Sure he's going to become one of the highest paid pitchers in the game, but when we look at 'ace' caliber pitchers how many, and how often do these guys hit the open market? And when these guys do hit the open market they are not 25 years old. If Verlander had hit the open market at 25, in today's market, you'd see him obliterate any contract Tanaka will be offered. Even though JV was never a free agent he is still going to be paid $28 million between 2015 and 2019.