Top 10 predictions for MLB season 2014 (sports illustrated)

[Hubs]

In 2009 an offense with less potential than this one scored 883 runs. They were quite lucky though. 

In 2004 an offense with less potential than this one scored 836 runs. 

In 2002 an offense with less potential than this one scored 851 runs.

 

The 2014 Angels should score between 830-880 runs.

 

The lack of solid production the past few years has led to constant shuffling of the batting order, and while we all know Scioscia loves different lineups  when the Angels have scored the most runs, they've had consistency in the batting order at a few different spots. 

 

In 2013, The Angels used 118 different batting orders. Yet no one had more than Pujols' 99 starts at the 3 spot. 

In 2012, The Angels used 121 different batting orders. Trout started 138 games at the #1 spot, Pujols 154 times in the #3 spot and Morales 94 times at cleanup. Much better offense in 2012 than in 2013.

In 2011, The Angels used 129 different batting orders, no one had more than 100 games at any spot. 

2010, 133 different batting orders, Hunter had 104 games at the #4 spot.

2009, 123 different orders, Figgins started 158 games at the #1 spot.

 

I know injuries take their toll and that some shuffling is necessary. But with production comes consistency, and with consistency comes production.

 

Our "sick" lineups rarely if ever get used 10 times in a season, but in the Angels best offensive seasons, they have had a consistent presence at several of the spots in the lineup. 

 

I urge Scioscia to do exactly that in 2014.

[Hubs]

In reference to above, the most consistent lineups should feature Trout at the #1 spot, Calhoun at the #2 spot, Pujols at the #3 spot, and Hamilton at the #4 spot. Maybe it works out that Calhoun, Trout, Hamilton, Pujols is the most common, but those four guys need to be the #1-#4 batters.

 

I'd slot in Freese and Ibanez at #5 and #6 and Kendrick at #7. Then Aybar and the Catcher at #8 and #9. 

[Hubs]

Against tough lefties, I'd expect Green to play 2nd and Kendrick to either play LF or at 1B while Pujols or Hamilton DH's. In 2013, Ibanez was pretty consistent between lefties and righties but in the two years previous he has been atrocious against lefties. 

 

I'd think that by the end of the season Green and Ibanez will be the de-facto DH platoon. (Even if him playing the field gives one of the two of Pujols or Hamilton DH AB's).

 

Green had better splits against lefties in 2012 and 2011 in the minors.

 

Since the Angels don't have a fourth OF that's a starting caliber OF on any team with playoff aspirations, I think Kendrick gets 15-20 games in the OF, giving Hamilton the opportunity to DH, and also at 1st as Calhoun can play that spot, but Pujols will need DH time to stay fresh. Say Kendrick plays 110 games at 2nd and Green gets 40. Remember that their are only 152 games with DH's, and usually about 60 games against lefty starters. 

 

Shuck will get some time in the OF for Hamilton but only maybe 10-20 games. Never against a lefty.

Conversely, Calhoun will get some time at 1st, but only against lefties.

[Troll Daddy]

The Mike Trout jinx is now official.

[Jimmag]

Yes! Trout will be fighting off Hamilton and Pujols for MVP.

[Troll Daddy]

I think scoring over 800 runs is a long shot considering the team only scored 733 last season ... and now Trumbo is gone.

[floplag]

#1 Trout wins MVP

#2 Pujols and Hamilton both hit more than 30 HR

#10 the A's finally win a WS.

if he is right on numbers 1 and 2, then #10 wont happen.

[Brent Maguire]

I think scoring over 800 runs is a long shot considering the team only scored 733 last season ... and now Trumbo is gone.

Not having a black hole at 3rd base and adding a high OBP guy should help. A healthy Pujols makes a huge difference as well. This team should score anywhere from 760-800 runs.

[DW711]

#1 Trout wins MVP

#2 Pujols and Hamilton both hit more than 30 HR

#10 the A's finally win a WS.

if he is right on numbers 1 and 2, then #10 wont happen.

 

 

Not necessarily 

[T.G.]

any predictions from SI are the kiss of death....

[AngelsLakersFan]

In 2009 an offense with less potential than this one scored 883 runs. They were quite lucky though. 

In 2004 an offense with less potential than this one scored 836 runs. 

In 2002 an offense with less potential than this one scored 851 runs.

 

 

I think you are selling those teams really short.

 

I like our offense this year, but I will be happy if it puts up numbers like those three teams did. I think on paper the 2004 team had a better offense than this team does - on paper.

[tdawg87]

In the last 4 years the MLB has become a pitcher's league. Since 2010, only 9 teams have scored 800+ runs. The previous 4 years, 34 teams scored 800+ runs. The four years before that, 39 teams scored 800+ runs.

 

I think 750 runs is the new 800.

[Troll Daddy]

In 2009 an offense with less potential than this one scored 883 runs. They were quite lucky though. 

In 2004 an offense with less potential than this one scored 836 runs. 

In 2002 an offense with less potential than this one scored 851 runs.

 

 

Those teams were led my Mickey Hatcher though ... I'm just sayin

[Blarg]

Mickey Hatcher was the Manager those years?

[floplag]

Not necessarily 

 

you can tell yourself that if it makes you feel better but if those 3 guys all deliver that kind of offense we will score enough runs that i could win 10 games or more.

[Ohtaniland]

In the last 4 years the MLB has become a pitcher's league. Since 2010, only 9 teams have scored 800+ runs. The previous 4 years, 34 teams scored 800+ runs. The four years before that, 39 teams scored 800+ runs.

 

I think 750 runs is the new 800.

 

MLB cleaned up a lot of issues after the 2009 season. The 2009 MLB numbers were outrageous.

 

http://espn.go.com/mlb/stats/batting/_/year/2009

[Troll Daddy]

Mickey Hatcher was the Manager those years?

The truth is always hard to swallow.

The pitching staff was also much better with Mathis on the team.

The irony of baseball. Lmao

[HaloMagic]

you can tell yourself that if it makes you feel better but if those 3 guys all deliver that kind of offense we will score enough runs that i could win 10 games or more.

In 2012 Trout played like the MVP and between Pujols and Trumbo 62 HRs were hit? And how did we fare?

Despite your love of offense, it all came down to the pitching. Just like last season and just like I predict it will in 2014.

[floplag]

In 2012 Trout played like the MVP and between Pujols and Trumbo 62 HRs were hit? And how did we fare?

Despite your love of offense, it all came down to the pitching. Just like last season and just like I predict it will in 2014

going out on a limb arent ya?  lol

the answer to your question is that we were in the race and finished 5 back at the end even with a 9-13 5+ERA Santana.. who became Cy young again after leaving.

i stand by my comments.. well see how it ends up

[HaloMagic]

going out on a limb arent ya? lol

the answer to your question is that we were in the race and finished 5 back at the end even with a 9-13 5+ERA Santana.. who became Cy young again after leaving.

i stand by my comments.. well see how it ends up

Exactly, we missed the playoffs and the A's had a chance to win the World Series despite Trout being an MVP and Pujols and Trumbo hitting 60+ bombs.

I'm not saying if #1 and 2 happen we'll still suck like last season. I'm saying that it doesn't really have any impact on what will happen with the A's. They could still win the WS. We could still miss the playoffs. It comes down to more an just the offense.

[Brent Maguire]

In 2012 Trout played like the MVP and between Pujols and Trumbo 62 HRs were hit? And how did we fare?

Despite your love of offense, it all came down to the pitching. Just like last season and just like I predict it will in 2014.

Yup. 

 

That's why adding another good starter looks like a must right now. Or at the very least get some depth in the rotation. We can't have 2 terrible back end starters again. 

[floplag]

Exactly, we missed the playoffs and the A's had a chance to win the World Series despite Trout being an MVP and Pujols and Trumbo hitting 60+ bombs.

I'm not saying if #1 and 2 happen we'll still suck like last season. I'm saying that it doesn't really have any impact on what will happen with the A's. They could still win the WS. We could still miss the playoffs. It comes down to more an just the offense.

and the sun could turn into a bran muffin.... of course these things are possible im simply stating my opinion...

 

The A's perplex me anyway... they have been riding one of the luckiest streaks i can recall in baseball history.   They have great pitching, no question... the biggest reason they win but they have had an uncanny knack for getting bit hits when they need them the most out of a bunch of cast offs and relative no names that always seem to get hits when it matters.  Every night on ESPN it was late inning heroics and come from behind 3-2 wins on a late 2 run homer or some shit.

We had a higher team average than they did last year, of course we have on base issues.  They had a higher slugging percentage even than Colorado in a park that isnt supposed to support those kind of numbers.  They hit more HR than Boston for christs sake.

 

You can say what you will but i would defy anyone to tell me they predicted the offensive output of that team over the last 2 years.. its nonsensical. 

 

i simply cant believe that streak keeps going forever... if it does it wont matter what we do, but luck eventually runs out.

[HaloMagic]

Unless it's not luck.

Which it isn't. Plate patience and power. That is what Beane covets. And that is what leads to OBP and SLG. And those two things just happen to win the offensive game.

[floplag]

Unless it's not luck.

Which it isn't. Plate patience and power. That is what Beane covets. And that is what leads to OBP and SLG. And those two things just happen to win the offensive game.

 

unless it is...   getting it when you need it most and always with runners on... come on your not going to tell me that not a bit of a statistical anomaly are ya ?

 

i hear what you are saying... but there is no way that roster should have put up the numbers is has over the last 2 years with lesser stats than other teams

 

for examples.. last year, some stats from last year comparing them to our equivalents:

runs:  4th, 767  (we were 7th and had 733)  -34 in their favor

hits:  13th 1403 (we were 5th, 1473)  +70 in our favor

HR:  3rd 186, (we were 12th at 164) -24 in their favor

TB:  6th  2312 (we were 5th at 2316) +4 in our favor

avg:  14th 254 (we were 5th 264) +0.10 in our favor

OBP:  8th 327 (we were 5th at 329) +0.002 in our favor

SLG:  4th  419 (we were only 6th at 414) -0.005 in their favor

OPS:  3rd  745 (we were 5th at 743)  -0.002 in their favor

 

so, by your logic a team that scores 30 more runs should have a higher OBP and SLG, but in this case, they do not.  its split with us winning on and they the other by a very small margin on both cases.  the only numbers that are largely different are HR and runs scored in their favor and hits in ours

 

add to that the fact that we had a higher # of hits, total bases, a better average, only only .002 lower in total OPS... they hit 22 more HR than us, and scored 34 more runs.... and it comes down to one thing, HR with men on base.  or, as i said, luck and timely bombs.

 

its easy to play the moneyball card but the stats that dont back up your position and in this case fail the logic.  This is more like Earl Weaver Orioles than Beane Moneyball

Edited January 7, 2014 by floplag

[Tyler]

They tie moneyball to offense, but it's really about having pitchers before they get paid.