MWAH Top 30 Prospect Countdown

[jsnpritchett]

A number 10 MLB prospect in the year of our Lord was just compared to Kevin Jepsen.

 

This sure is a farm system.

 

 

cool.  Maybe he'll still be here 37 years from now, like it seems like Jepsen has been.

[Second Base]

I use Kevin Jepsen as a comparison for Bedrosian right now.  I am definitely not a fan of Jepsen.  That guy has blown so many leads, it wouldn't matter if he recorded a sub-1 ERA this next season, I still wouldn't trust him.  I think that's essentially what we have right now in Cam Bedrosian.  I'm hopeful however, that Bedrock Jr's going to keep progressing and learn to control the zone and keep hitters off balance.  If he gets that down, he'll be infinitely more effective than Jepsen has been. 

[Angel Oracle]

What happened to #11?

Went from #12 (Jimenez) to #10 (Bedrosian).

[monkeywithahalo]

#11 was Nick Maronde. I like him more than Scotty does, I think. He just completely lost the strike zone last year, which is really weird given that control was a big strength of his previously. There was definitely some mechanical and health issues there though, so I'm hoping that means a speedy turnaround. I think he has the ability to be the kind of lefty reliever that can take on right-handed pitching too.

 

Also, for future reference, the entire top 30 list can be found here.

[Second Base]

Coming in at #9, LHP Hunter Green - http://www.monkeywithahalo.com/prospects-countdown/2014/2014-la-angels-prospects-9-hunter-green.html

 

Green is the first high school "1st round" talent the Angels have managed to land since 2010 when they drafted Kaleb Cowart.  That's a long time to go without young, high upside talent.  Quite frankly, the Angels had to be thanking their lucky stars they managed to land Hunter Green in the 2nd round of the draft.  Some had him going within the top 15 picks, others earlier in the 2nd round, none had him falling all the way to the Angels.  I'm willing to bet that if this kid went to high school in California, he would've been a top 10 draft selection. 

 

With guys like Green, it's always a gamble.  But he's added some serious muscle this offseason and seems very focused on the idea of making an impression and soaking up all that he can this Spring.  When I spoke to his family before and after he had signed, they really liked that the organization wanted to send him to big league camp so early.  

[Docwaukee]

Thanks guys.  Green is gonna be fun to watch.  I could see him being one of those guys that seems pretty mediocre for his first couple of years until he gets to high A at age 20 and it just clicks for him. 

[Second Base]

#8 is shortstop Jose Rondon - http://www.monkeywithahalo.com/prospects-countdown/2014/2014-la-angels-prospects-8-jose-rondon.html

 

I'm really a big fan of Rondon.  I see more power in his swing than what the numbers are showing, just as with Alex Yarbrough.  But in Rondon's case there's continuing physical maturity takes place.  Despite what he's listed at, Rondon is likely 6'2 or 6'3 and 190 lbs right now.  While he may be done growing in height, it remains highly likely he'll pack on another 20-30 pounds, he's already put on 40 since signing.  With that extra weight, I believe will come additional strength and power, but as Garrett said, Rondon first needs to learn to pull the ball and put some air underneath it.  He makes very solid contact right now, but it more comes in the form of line drives and ground balls.  As for his defense, I see no reason whatsoever why he'll need to be moved to 3B.  If it happens, it'd likely be because Cowart didn't work out as a position player and Stamets is too good defensively to bench or lose in a trade.  But Rondon easily profiles as a shortstop.  Good range, good arm, great field intelligence. 

[Docwaukee]

I love Rondon's approach for a 19yo. 

 

Why did they limit his at bats last year? 

[Second Base]

Most likely because of a hand injury sustained during Spring Training, but instead of sending him to Burlington once he was healthy, they made the super conservative decision to put him in Orem. I'm really hoping he goes to San Bernardino this year. He certainly has the talent and refinement to hold his own there.

[Angel Oracle]

I could see Rondon spending 2-3 months at Burlington and the rest at IE in 2014.

No need to rush him too fast, with Aybar and Stamets in front of him.  

[Second Base]

Coming in at #7 on our list, 2B Alex Yarbrough - http://www.monkeywithahalo.com/prospects-countdown/2014/2014-la-angels-prospects-7-alex-yarbrough.html

As far as prospects go, I have Lindsey ranked above Yarbrough for obvious reasons, he's a former 1st rounder, he's of the same age but a level higher, was already a league MVP has a more patient approach and slightly more power.

But as Major Leaguers, I think Yarbrough may end up being the better of the two, if only slightly. He makes better contact, is a true switch hitter, is faster and is a better defender.

The difference may end up being negligible though. I can see Lindsey becoming a .270/.340 30 DB 15 HR 5 SB hitter with slightly below average defense and Yarbrough being a .280/.320 30 DB 10 HR 10 SB hitter with slightly above average defense.

In terms of value, they should end up being about the sand and the only reason why I bring it up is because if other teams perceive Lindsey to be a valuable trade target, Yarbrough may essentially replace him and the Angels wouldn't be any worse off.

But in the end, I think it's Yarvrough who ends up being packaged somewhere, which is a little unfortunate,

[Angelsjunky]

I just caught up on this list - good job as always, Scotty and Garret.

 

I gotta disagree with Stamets and Jimenez ahead of Borenstein. Maybe Stamets is more likely to have a major league career by virtue of his defense, but Borenstein's offensive upside is so much greater that I'd take the risk on him. Jimenez...well, not sure if he can hit well enough to be a regular third baseman and there aren't too many bench 3B defensive specialists with major league jobs.

[Angelsjunky]

Scotty, do you see either Lindsey or Yarbrough as getting any time at 3B in case Cowart flames out? Or are the Angels still 100% committed to Cowart being the 3B of the future?

[Second Base]

I think that the way the Angels are operating as an organization right now is to build as much potential major league depth as possible.  So Cowart really isn't being committed to at this point, as he shouldn't.  Lindsey simply doesn't have the defensive prowess to make a passable third baseman, and while Yarbrough does, he'd never be a plus defender at the position and his offensive value would likely be the equivalent of Taylor Lindsey's at second base.  He really wouldn't add a dimension of speed or power to the lineup that they'd need from a 3B, so such a switch would be pointless.  

 

I think most likely you'd see the Angels try to extend Freese if he has a good year, look at trading for another 3B prospect or switch Jose Rondon from SS to 3B (a move I'm not in favor of) in order to mask an organizational shortcoming and get him and Stamets on the same field at the same time. 

 

As for Borenstein, it all came down to what I see them doing in the majors.  I think Borenstein will be a major leaguer, but I think his role as a major leaguer will likely be confined to power bat off the bench or LH pinch hitter.  Guys like that tend to jump between AAA and the majors a lot and never really find the rhythm they need.  I feel that's Stamets' speed and defensive prowess at a key position guarantee him a consistent spot in the majors as a late inning defensive replacement, utility player and pinch runner.  That's basically Stamets' floor, which is more valuable than Borenstein's likely outcome, which is to serve the role that Carlos Pena will be this season.  But more than likely, I think Stamets will end up being a starting shortstop in the major leagues for a few years.   

[Second Base]

Top Prospect #6 RHP Mike Morin - http://www.monkeywithahalo.com/prospects-countdown/2014/2014-la-angels-prospects-6-mike-morin.html

 

Morin has what it takes to succeed in the major leagues right now.  But the Angels have a bullpen that includes Frieri, Smith, Burnett, DDLR, Jepsen, Kohn, Salas, Moran, Carson, Rapada, Sisk, Boshers, Maronde and Roth in it. No granted, Roth is going to be a starter for now and Maronde, Boshers, Sisk, Rapada and Carson are all headed for AA/AAA, but that's a lot of players Morin needs to leapfrog.  

 

Still, of all the relievers I mentioned (major leaguers included), right now, Mike Morin might be the 3rd best. 

[Angel Oracle]

Re: the MLB scouts throughout who are concerned that Mike Morin doesn't throw hard enough to close: 

Did not Mo Rivera usually max out on his fastball at about 92-93mph (similar to Morin's 91-93mph)?

 

Couldn't Morin's change potentially have devestating results on hitters like Rivera's cutter did, because Morin apparently has outstanding control/command of it?  

Even the .312 BA vs lefties in 2013 was accompanied by a smaller .385 SLG% against those same lefties.  

 

This could prove to be one of the great Halos' draft selections of the past 2-3 decades. 

Edited February 18, 2014 by Angel Oracle

[wopphil]

Top Prospect #6 RHP Mike Morin - http://www.monkeywithahalo.com/prospects-countdown/2014/2014-la-angels-prospects-6-mike-morin.html

 

Morin has what it takes to succeed in the major leagues right now.  But the Angels have a bullpen that includes Frieri, Smith, Burnett, DDLR, Jepsen, Kohn, Salas, Moran, Carson, Rapada, Sisk, Boshers, Maronde and Roth in it. No granted, Roth is going to be a starter for now and Maronde, Boshers, Sisk, Rapada and Carson are all headed for AA/AAA, but that's a lot of players Morin needs to leapfrog.  

 

Still, of all the relievers I mentioned (major leaguers included), right now, Mike Morin might be the 3rd best. 

Great write-up on Morin.  I have to believe the Angels are going to go with the very best bullpen they can assemble out of Spring (i.e., I don't think they will be quite as prone to screwing around with guys like Kohn and Salas if they don't produce), and I think Morin's chances of making the roster could be quite good. 

[Second Base]

It's double dip Wednesday with a couple of my favorite prospects/

 

#5 RHP R.J. Alvarez - http://www.monkeywithahalo.com/prospects-countdown/2014/2014-la-angels-prospects-5-rj-alvarez.html

 

I really like R.J. in the sort of way you like a rambunctious dog.  You can't help but love em', they just have that energy that makes you smile.  Alvarez's mechanics are just so awful that you sometimes find yourself laughing when you shouldn't be.  But the truly funny part is that while you're laughing, he's sitting batters down like it's his job (well, because it is).  He throws so hard, his slider has so much sink and his change up is developing so quickly that it really doesn't matter what his mechanics look like.  Now eventually major league hitters might make him throw strikes, because right now he has no idea where the ball is going, but we'll cross that bridge when we get there.  All we know right now is that hitters in the Cal League and Arizona Fall League couldn't touch him. 

 

#4 prospect RHP Mark Sappington - http://www.monkeywithahalo.com/prospects-countdown/2014/2014-la-angels-prospects-4-mark-sappington.html

 

 

Sappington is easily my favorite prospect right now.  Sometimes, people just get it.  They see the bigger picture.  He realizes he's being paid to play baseball and he's all smiles over it, as he should be.  Just an absolute A+ personality to go with being an A+ person and a great pitcher.  He's got all the tools to succeed as a starter, he just needs to iron some things out.  Find a consistent release point with his slider, figure out what his plan is with the change up and just get used to the quirks of being a pitcher.  I'm confident he will.  Sappington should be good to go as a member of the Angels rotation in 2015 or 16 and quickly establish himself as a fan favorite. 

[Second Base]

http://www.monkeywithahalo.com/prospects-countdown/2014/2014-la-angels-prospects-3-cj-cron.html

 

Top Prospect #3 - 1B C.J. Cron 

 

If you read through this scouting report, you can tell it was written prior to the Mark Trumbo trade and Cron's monster performance in the AFL.  Lots of folks have jumped off the Cron bandwagon and understandably so.  But at the end of the day, when I compare him to other prospects I see plus power coupled with plus contact ability and above average production in even the most harsh hitting conditions.  Sure, he has his flaws, but with the exception of Trout, no prospect comes without them, that's why they are prospects and not players yet.

 

Cron passes the eye test too.  Watch his guy take BP and it's just astonishing.  At the Future's Game he left coaches and scouts alike in a trance during his BP sessions.  Some of the power manifests itself in games, but his approach is what has prevented all of it from showing up.  Cron's an intelligent kid though.  He may not be a monster right away, but if it ever clicks for him, my goodness.  The Angels would have an all-star on their hands.

 

Still, I expect something in the middle ground for Cron.  More along the lines of .270/.320 30 DB and 25 HR's each year.  Certainly not elite, but also isn't going to hurt your ball club either.  A decent performance comp for Cron would probably be former Angel Kendrys Morales.  Certainly wouldn't mind him being our DH at the right price.  Cron's the right price.       

[jsnpritchett]

http://www.monkeywithahalo.com/prospects-countdown/2014/2014-la-angels-prospects-3-cj-cron.html

 

Top Prospect #3 - 1B C.J. Cron 

 

If you read through this scouting report, you can tell it was written prior to the Mark Trumbo trade and Cron's monster performance in the AFL.  Lots of folks have jumped off the Cron bandwagon and understandably so.  But at the end of the day, when I compare him to other prospects I see plus power coupled with plus contact ability and above average production in even the most harsh hitting conditions.  Sure, he has his flaws, but with the exception of Trout, no prospect comes without them, that's why they are prospects and not players yet.

 

Cron passes the eye test too.  Watch his guy take BP and it's just astonishing.  At the Future's Game he left coaches and scouts alike in a trance during his BP sessions.  Some of the power manifests itself in games, but his approach is what has prevented all of it from showing up.  Cron's an intelligent kid though.  He may not be a monster right away, but if it ever clicks for him, my goodness.  The Angels would have an all-star on their hands.

 

Still, I expect something in the middle ground for Cron.  More along the lines of .270/.320 30 DB and 25 HR's each year.  Certainly not elite, but also isn't going to hurt your ball club either.  A decent performance comp for Cron would probably be former Angel Kendrys Morales.  Certainly wouldn't mind him being our DH at the right price.  Cron's the right price.       

 

Excerpt from the write-up:

 

"Cron flashed an improved approach in his first season in AA, with lower strikeout totals and more BB."

 

While the "more BB" portion is technically true, the difference is really insignificant.  In 2012, he had 17 BB in 557 plate appearances.  In 2013, he had 23 BB in 565 PAs.  However, he only had one intentional walk in 2012, and he had 5 in 2013.  When you take those away (since they have nothing to do with approach or discipline), he had 16 non-intentional walks in 2012, and 18 in 2013 (in 8 more PAs).  There's no difference.  That's just random noise.

[Second Base]

Pitchers in AA are generally better, in some cases significantly better than they were in the Cal League. So while 5 more BB may seem insignificant, it's actually progress. No I'm not saying he suddenly became a selective hitter, I'm saying he knows where he needs to improve and is attempting to make the necessary adjustments.

Sample size alert, but his K/BB wasn't bad at all in the AFL.

Edited February 21, 2014 by ScottyA_MWAH

[jsnpritchett]

Pitchers in AA are generally better, in some cases significantly better than they were in the Cal League. So while 5 more BB may seem insignificant, it's actually pr

 

The difference isn't 5.  It's 2 non-intentional walks.  It's just noise.

[Second Base]

Angels #2 ranked prospect 3B Kaleb Cowart - http://www.monkeywithahalo.com/prospects-countdown/2014/2014-la-angels-prospects-2-kaleb-cowart.html

 

Cowart was just plain overmatched in the Texas League.  No way around that, but he was also one of the youngest players in the league with one of the highest ceilings.  If nothing else, he's a fantastic defensive 3B, but that skill alone will likely not land him a job in the Major Leagues.  Cowart will be repeating AA next year and what I'll be looking for from him will be an improved approach from the left-side of the plate.  

 

It's far too early to give up on him as a prospect.  If he still can't cut it in AA as a 22 year old in 2014, the Angels will likely scrap his left-handed swing altogether (even though it has much more power in it) and just have Kaleb focus on hitting right-handed.  Then if that doesn't work, you'd likely see the Angels send Cowart back to the mound....as a 24 year old.  Of course this path would be unfavorable as Cowart would undoubtedly spend a year in Rookie Ball getting acclimated to pitching and wouldn't even head back to A Ball until age 25.  And even then, though Cowart's fastball does sit in the mid-high 90's, he may just end up being a reliever, so would the transition really be worth it?

 

But that's all hypothetical.  Cowart has two years left in the batter's box before they consider a move to the mound and within those two year, he may figure it out and once again remove doubt that he is the Angels 3B of the future.

[wopphil]

Angels #2 ranked prospect 3B Kaleb Cowart - http://www.monkeywithahalo.com/prospects-countdown/2014/2014-la-angels-prospects-2-kaleb-cowart.html

 

Cowart was just plain overmatched in the Texas League.  No way around that, but he was also one of the youngest players in the league with one of the highest ceilings.  If nothing else, he's a fantastic defensive 3B, but that skill alone will likely not land him a job in the Major Leagues.  Cowart will be repeating AA next year and what I'll be looking for from him will be an improved approach from the left-side of the plate.  

 

It's far too early to give up on him as a prospect.  If he still can't cut it in AA as a 22 year old in 2014, the Angels will likely scrap his left-handed swing altogether (even though it has much more power in it) and just have Kaleb focus on hitting right-handed.  Then if that doesn't work, you'd likely see the Angels send Cowart back to the mound....as a 24 year old.  Of course this path would be unfavorable as Cowart would undoubtedly spend a year in Rookie Ball getting acclimated to pitching and wouldn't even head back to A Ball until age 25.  And even then, though Cowart's fastball does sit in the mid-high 90's, he may just end up being a reliever, so would the transition really be worth it?

 

But that's all hypothetical.  Cowart has two years left in the batter's box before they consider a move to the mound and within those two year, he may figure it out and once again remove doubt that he is the Angels 3B of the future.

Great write-up, again, Scotty. 

 

I have to wonder if Cowart was to some degree victimized by bad luck.  His K and BB rates weren't terrible, and his .280 BABIP seems rather low.  Perhaps he was just making really weak contact, or maybe bad luck slightly depressed his numbers.   

[Second Base]

There wasn't much luck involved for Cowart.  He was bad any way you slice it. 

 

No surprises here, I #1 ranked prospect at MWAH for 2014 in 2B Taylor Lindsey - http://www.monkeywithahalo.com/prospects-countdown/2014/2014-la-angels-prospects-1-taylor-lindsey.html

 

Lindsey is essentially the leader of the next wave of position players headed to Anaheim in the next 2-3 years (Lindsey, Cron, Cowart, Yarbrough, Stamets).  The last wave did wonders for the system (Trout, Trumbo, Bourjos, Conger) and while this next wave certainly doesn't have the star power, it does have enough of what the Angels need, which is depth and offensive profile.  Lindsey essentially projects to be a league average second baseman, maybe slightly better. 

 

In any given year, Kendrick's bound to give you .290 30 DB 10 HR and 10 SB with average defense.  What we're looking at with Lindsey would likely be .270 30 DB 10 HR 10 SB and fringe average defense.  So admittedly, a slight step down in production from Howie.  However, if Kendrick could nab something the Angels need in a trade and Lindsey steps up, the Angels would have essentially saved 9 million in payroll they could allocate elsewhere.  

 

As far as prospects go, Lindsey is of course the best the Angels have, but that status goes out the window in the Majors.  You need to perform, just ask Brandon Wood.  As major leaguers, I actually see Cron, Yarborugh and Grant Green being on par or a notch above Lindsey.  Still, it's really nice to have an overabundance of depth SOMEWHERE in the system.