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Blind Player Comparison


ettin

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Here's another one for you guys, I'll answer it later today:

 

Player A: 8.79 K/9, 3.46 BB/9, 4.37 ERA, 1.32 WHIP, 3.74 FIP, 3.56 xFIP, 3.75 SIERA

Player B: 5.69 K/9, 2.92 BB/9, 4.57 ERA, 1.39 WHIP, 4.60 FIP, 4.24 xFIP, 4.42 SIERA

 

Clearly Player A is a better pitcher but here is the other thing that I want you to consider: Would you pay Player A nearly five times as much salary over Player B? For example if Player B makes $3,000,000 would you pay Player A $14.6 million to pitch for the Angels?

 

In a baseball world of increasing salaries these are questions that our front office and many others are having to struggle with in roster construction and I think it would be interesting to hear some of your thoughts on this hypothetical decision.

Edited by ettin
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That's why I think Williams has tremendous value for the Angels.  Now, if he's making 8-12 million, maybe not.  But if the Angels can sign him to a 3/$10 million as a spot starter/long reliever which is low for a starter, but pretty high for a reliever, you have to do it.  

 

Of course, not sure what Williams will get on the free agent market.  Because you don't really know where he slots.

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That's why I think Williams has tremendous value for the Angels.  Now, if he's making 8-12 million, maybe not.  But if the Angels can sign him to a 3/$10 million as a spot starter/long reliever which is low for a starter, but pretty high for a reliever, you have to do it.  

 

Of course, not sure what Williams will get on the free agent market.  Because you don't really know where he slots.

 

Okay now that you have given away the answer, Williams is still under arbitration control for next season. He'll probably make about $3.5 million making him a value-asset in my opinion. The other player is of course Tim Lincecum.

 

I merely wanted to point out a case of relative value. Lincecum has more upside than Williams, especially if he recaptures his previous Cy Young glory, but looking at their 2013 numbers side by side you have to think that the Angels will retain Williams in at least a long-relief role as he can insert into the rotation easily if there are injuries without sacrificing too much quality.

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It would have made more sense to use career stats instead of one year. Those two pitchers could not possibly be less comparable. With Player A, there are concerns that he will not be a good pitcher again, but he at least has the possibility of retaining some of that former glory. And as you said, he is simply a better pitcher. Player B doesn't have any "former glory" and is 2 and a half years older. This year was also the most innings he has ever pitched in a major league uniform and it was still 30 innings shy of player A.

 

I wouldn't pay either guy a whole lot of money, to be honest.

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And I know where you are going Ettin.  I've seen those posts also that want to jettison Williams.  

 

His value to the Angels, especially on the depth side is tremendous.  That's why I've been hoping the Angels sign him to a 3 year deal.  As long as it's kept reasonable (3/$7-$10), it would be a great value.

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It would have made more sense to use career stats instead of one year. Those two pitchers could not possibly be less comparable. With Player A, there are concerns that he will not be a good pitcher again, but he at least has the possibility of retaining some of that former glory. And as you said, he is simply a better pitcher. Player B doesn't have any "former glory" and is 2 and a half years older. This year was also the most innings he has ever pitched in a major league uniform and it was still 30 innings shy of player A.

 

I wouldn't pay either guy a whole lot of money, to be honest.

 

Sorry tdawg I was trying to focus more on the value aspect more so than a direct comparison of career stats. More of the "what have you done for me lately" perspective.

 

My real point, that gotbeer said, is that Williams provides us with starting pitching depth while working out of the long relief role which is valuable on a team that really needs to build more depth. At $3.5 million (or as gotbeer suggested a 3 yr/$10 million contract extension) I think he provides solid value, especially when you consider the scarcity of starting pitching on the market right now.

 

Yes Lincecum is a former Cy Young who had a down season but he just commanded a pretty hefty contract extension. Part of that overpay has to do with the scarcity of pitching and part of it has to do with the fact that the Giants are only committed to Timmy for two years (they didn't have to commit to a longer term contract which has value too).

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Williams is useful enough as a long reliever who can step in and give you the occasional start(god help us if he's starting on a regular basis, though), and especially given the lack of major league ready pitching depth the Angels' have now he's probably worth keeping around for his final arb year, but I wouldn't hand a long reliever/spot starter a multi-year extension.

 

As bad as the Angels' pitching depth is, by the time 2015 rolls around, they should still be able to churn out a guy who can at least do what Jerome does for the league minimum with basically no commitment attached.

Edited by jshep
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Williams has value for sure. He's the kind of guy every organization needs. He can pitch out of the pen and then make a start on a whim when needed. If the choice is between him and Blanton for that role, the choice is so obvious it doesn't even need to be considered.

 

He just can't be relied on as a full time starter, as he proved this year. That's fine, they don't need to rely on him for 20+ starts a year and shouldn't expect that unless the rotation is a complete mess (like it was this year). He is fine as a swingman/long reliever.

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The big problem with your comparison is that Williams has never done that over a 200 inning season.

 

Well my real thought wopphil came when I saw the Lincecum signing and it made me think of Williams and I thought let me put them side by side because I was really trying to make a point about Williams value more so than a real blind comparison. My bad I suppose but at least the conversation has gone partially in the direction I really intended it to go.

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It's crazy to compare Lincecum to Jerome. Lincecum has 2 Cy's, 2 time World Champs, and face of a franchise. Lincy is a fan favorite and brings in revenue beyond what he does on the field. In the same breath, it is remarkable Jerome put together a year that resembled Timmy's. The Angels need JW and is due for a salary bump.

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