Four True Outcomes for Scioscia and Dipoto

[Chuck]

 

By Robert Cunningham, AngelsWin.com Staff Writer - 

Back in early to mid-July I wrote this article regarding the possibility that Howie Kendrick might be traded before the 2014 season starts.  In that article I listed some teams that might be possible trade partners for the Angels.

In one of those trade scenarios, the one involving the Dodgers, I gave a very low probability of making a trade because of the possible perceived battle for the hearts, minds and ticket sales of the fans and residents of Los Angeles County.

A lot of news has passed in the last two months, revolving not only around Howie Kendrick but many other players as well. In fact it has now spread beyond the players and into the front office. Both Mike Scioscia and Jerry Dipoto have had their names mentioned as candidates to be fired in the off season.

One story reported by Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports, found here, indicated that the Angels were in heavy trade discussions right up until the deadline regarding a Howie Kendrick for Zach Lee based deal—similar to the deal that I suggested earlier in July.

That deal never went through for unknown reasons. Perhaps the Angels, Dodgers, or both, didn't feel the trade was equitable and decided not to pull the trigger. Maybe the Dodgers saw their improvement in the standings and decided to back out of the proposed deal. It could even be that the return on Kendrick wasn't high enough for the Angels and a decision was made to wait until the off season to expand the number of potential suitors. Rosenthal even went so far as to suggest that the Dodgers might revisit a Kendrick trade after the season was over.

But could there be another possible reason that the Kendrick deal was delayed? The answer brings us to one of our four true outcomes.

All of the recent talk this week has been about the rift between Mike Scioscia and Jerry Dipoto. Jeff Passan, Scott Miller, Keith Law, and many others have reported that one of the two will be gone in the near future. So one of four real outcomes will happen before next season: Jerry Dipoto will be gone; Mike Scioscia will be gone; both will be gone; or both will stay.

The latter two options seem the least likely at this point in time. The only way that both would stay is if Arte Moreno really did have too much direct involvement in the big ticket acquisitions and he feels guilty enough about the results that he can’t bring himself to place the blame on either Dipoto or Scioscia.

Both would go if Arte was so mad about the results of this season and the prior ones that he decided to blow the entire operation up. Under this scenario, not only would both Scioscia and Dipoto be removed, but most likely parts of the front office and coaching staff would be gone too.

Out of the remaining two options I’d like to focus specifically on the idea of Mike Scioscia being gone. Mike is widely considered in baseball circles to be a good and experienced manager that many teams would seriously consider hiring or acquiring if given the opportunity. Although Mike has approximately $27-30 million remaining on his contract, it is not an immovable one and it is even possible that the right team would consider absorbing most or all of it in trade.

All of which brings me back to those trade deadline discussions with the Dodgers. It is plausible that Jerry Dipoto was not only discussing the trade of Howie Kendrick in July, but also the trade of Mike Scioscia.

If you really think about it from both teams’ perspectives it does make some sense. For the Angels, Mike Scioscia’s tenure appears to have become stale. The message being communicated to the players doesn’t appear to be heard or evidenced in their play on the field. Some have questioned Mike’s in-game tactical calls and it certainly seems like many of those decisions have failed at some of the worst times, resulting in increased scrutiny.

Additionally, there have been rumors that Dipoto and Scioscia don't always see eye to eye on things. Although Mike has stated that he is committed to the Angels (and he has never given anyone pause to not take him at his word), it may be that the Angels aren't as committed to Mike as they once were.

On the Dodgers side, earlier in the season, rumors swirled around Don Mattingly’s job security and it appeared that he was on the cusp of being fired before the team’s resurgence in late June/early July. The Dodgers were more than likely giving Mattingly his last chance to succeed. And when the team turned it around, the Dodgers probably decided that changing managers during a run like the one they are on would only be a negative for the team.

For the Dodgers, the opportunity to acquire an experienced manager of Mike Scioscia’s caliber would be one that they would certainly consider, if not covet. Not to mention the fact that he is a beloved player in the history of the Dodgers franchise, helping them win two World Series titles.

If Arte Moreno has decided that it is time for Mike to go, having Jerry Dipoto discuss managerial trades would help save the team money and could even return Major League ready players and prospects. The one team that makes the most sense to trade him to, from a value perspective, is the Los Angeles Dodgers.

It is possible that a trade would have happened already had it not been for the fact that the Dodgers turned it around under Mattingly’s command before the deadline came. The Dodgers may have determined it was better to wait until the off season to discuss a Kendrick/Scioscia trade. The team’s surge leading up to the trade deadline could have convinced the front office not to mess with their current success.

For the Angels it could have been that the return in trade wasn’t what they had hoped for and they could afford to wait for the off season to potentially increase the number of suitors for Kendrick, Scioscia, or both.

Of course it could also, simply be, that they were only discussing Kendrick.

I don’t envy the decision that Arte Moreno has to make. All of the four true outcomes seem fraught with potential pitfalls and unforeseen consequences. Arte, in his recent comments, indicated that he was experiencing conflicted thoughts by stating, “"I have to look in the mirror and say, 'Am I making the right call?'"

In some ways the Scioscia question is a tough one. I don’t think many people doubt Mike’s intelligence and ability to manage a team. However, sometimes the message stops getting through and the connection to the player’s can unravel. If Arte has given Jerry Dipoto the green light to trade Scioscia, the Dodgers sure do seem like a welcoming target. In fact they may be a team that we could extract the most value from, in a trade. A hometown hero comes home, so to speak.

Of course it could be less expensive to send Dipoto on his way rather than Scioscia. He may be done before he ever got started.

As fans we always have to remember that the grass isn't always greener on the other side of the hill. In other words be careful what you wish for.

Only Arte Moreno, Jerry Dipoto, and Mike Scioscia know what the real state of affairs is. There are conversations and situations that we are just not privy too that will factor into the decision of who stays and who might go.

If Scioscia does go, look for an off season trade of 2B Howie Kendrick and M Mike Scioscia for prospects SP Zach Lee and SS Corey Seager plus one of either RP Kenley Jansen or RP Paco Rodriguez (the former being the more desirable target). The Dodgers would more than likely absorb a large amount of the contracts of both Kendrick and Scioscia.

A trade like this would give the Angels an instant upgrade to their starting rotation and bullpen. Lee could slot in the #3 or #4 spot next season and Jansen or Rodriguez would become an instant late inning relief option. Seager could develop into a power-hitting shortstop in 2-4 years time.

By waiting until the off season, the Dodgers can keep their bullpen intact for their pennant run and then trade either Jansen or Rodriguez as needed.

Some of you might scoff at the idea that Scioscia’s contract has value but it wouldn't surprise me if the Dodgers looked at it as a bargain, particularly considering Scioscia’s history with the club.

This solution, if the Dodgers are willing to do it, would allow us to unload some or all of Scioscia’s contract (and Kendrick’s) while giving us some of the potential upgrades we are looking for and need.

If Arte really has decided that the Mike Scioscia era is over, the Dodgers really are close to being the perfect trade partner.

[Spirit]

Good stuff, Robert!

[DMVol]

The Dodgers are probably the best team in baseball right now, with a historic run in the last two months...and they are going to can their manager and trade for Scioscia?  I don't get that....

[Angelsjunky]

I don't understand this at all. Don Mattingly is probably going to win Manager of the Year because he did what Scioscia couldn't do: turned a talented team around mid-season into a World Series favorite. Now why would the Dodgers want Scioscia?

[Angelsjunky]

p.s. Other than that, a good, well-written, article.

[Angel Oracle]

A lot to think about, my only thought is, why Cory Seager when we have Jose Rondon? Both are about 3 years away. Unless the org is souring on Cowart and is considering moving Rondon to 3B?

[stormngt]

I don't see that either.  Despite the fact that Mattingly isn't going anywhere.  At least absent of a major Dog collapse.  There is another issue. Moreno despite his denials is competing against the Dodgers in marketing.  His worst nightmare would be a Scioscia led Dodger team winning the world series!

 

I think the fact that Mattingly job is safe is giving Moreno more thought on firing Scioscia.

[YouthofToday]

Well written article. Arte would NEVER contemplate trading Scioscia to the Dodgers though. Mickey Hatcher would claim walks are a true stat before that happened!

[Bruce Nye]

I don't understand this at all. Don Mattingly is probably going to win Manager of the Year because he did what Scioscia couldn't do: turned a talented team around mid-season into a World Series favorite. Now why would the Dodgers want Scioscia?

 

 

 

 

 

You lost me at "talented team", AJ.  Do you really think the Angels have a talented team?  Start with starting pitching and the bullpen.

[ettin]

I don't understand this at all. Don Mattingly is probably going to win Manager of the Year because he did what Scioscia couldn't do: turned a talented team around mid-season into a World Series favorite. Now why would the Dodgers want Scioscia?

 

So AJ, do you really think it is Mattingly's coaching skills that have brought the Dodgers back? Up until late June they were horrible?

 

The Dodgers have a LOT of talented players on their team so I think you'd have to be inside the Dodgers organization to really know if Mattingly is making the difference or not.

 

I think the Dodgers would jump at the opportunity to sign Scioscia if it presented itself. I mentioned those Kendrick deadline talks because, according to Rosenthal's sources, they had been ongoing for the better part of a month (all of July essentially). It is not unreasonable to believe that the Dodgers were "this close" to sending Don on his way and possibly acquiring Scioscia.

 

When the Dodgers turned their season around it probably was determined to wait until the off season to reconsider any possible trade. Essentially they decided not to mess with the awesome run they were on.

 

It is just my opinion AJ, that if Mattingly doesn't at least get them to the World Series that the Dodgers would consider not renewing his contract and trading for Mike. If you can't at least see the history in Mike's playing years and his continued success as a big league manager as a very attractive option for the Dodgers I think you may not be looking at what might be best for both teams.

 

I like Scioscia on several levels but if the message has grown stale then perhaps a fresh voice is needed and I am simply suggesting that the Dodgers would be an ideal trade partner if Arte decided that Mike was the one to go.

 

I could be totally wrong about this but it makes some level of sense as far as the fit for both teams. In my original Kendrick article I was concerned that we wouldn't do business with the Dodgers because of the possible perceived competition for the Los Angeles fan base but I think Dipoto knows business is business and if a deal makes sense you make it, no matter what team it is with.

 

[ettin]

A lot to think about, my only thought is, why Cory Seager when we have Jose Rondon? Both are about 3 years away. Unless the org is souring on Cowart and is considering moving Rondon to 3B?

 

Mainly I think they would pursue Seager because he is one of their top prospects and he would give us a choice of SS prospects moving forward. Rondon is obviously a possible future SS but we also thought Brandon Wood was a future 3B? Having additional options is important (depth).

 

It also increases the likelihood that we trade Aybar before his contract is up if one of the two excels and forces their way onto the big league team. Otherwise one of them is a trade chip once Aybar's contract expires.

 

Edit: Also Seager is a power-hitter while Rondon is more of an Aybar like player with a wider skill set. Two different beasts which would also allow us to select the one that best fits into our team composition if they both become MLB-ready.

Edited August 27, 2013 by ettin

[ettin]

I don't see that either.  Despite the fact that Mattingly isn't going anywhere.  At least absent of a major Dog collapse.  There is another issue. Moreno despite his denials is competing against the Dodgers in marketing.  His worst nightmare would be a Scioscia led Dodger team winning the world series!

 

I think the fact that Mattingly job is safe is giving Moreno more thought on firing Scioscia.

 

As I mentioned in my original Kendrick article, I was concerned that the Angels won't do trades with the Dodgers because of a possible, perceived battle for the Los Angeles fan base.

 

However, Rosenthal did clearly report that Kendrick was in play with the Dodgers so when it comes to business I think Dipoto looks past that issue and looks to see if the deal makes sense for both sides and would pull the trigger if that was the case.

 

I think nothing short of a World Series visit saves Mattingly's job. He was about to be fired in early July before the team went on its massive win streak. And a large part of that has to do with the players themselves, performing, than the manager leading.

 

That isn't necessarily a knock on Mattingly but you have to think the Dodgers were exploring their options in mid-June to replace him and Scioscia would be an ideal target for them whether or not Arte would even consider it or not. Three losing seasons in a row might convince Moreno otherwise.

 

Like I said if Arte has decided Scioscia has got to go then this scenario is in play and the Dodgers are a prime trade candidate.

[DMVol]

Don't believe Mattingly's head would be on the chopping block if the Dogs are short of the WSeries....I do agree on the Kendrick thing....the fact that there were talks at the trade deadline (if Rosenthal is accurate) is surprising and maybe is indicative that Arte is going to make significant changes, and if the Dodgers have the best deal out there for Kendrick, so be it....

[ettin]

Don't believe Mattingly's head would be on the chopping block if the Dogs are short of the WSeries....I do agree on the Kendrick thing....the fact that there were talks at the trade deadline (if Rosenthal is accurate) is surprising and maybe is indicative that Arte is going to make significant changes, and if the Dodgers have the best deal out there for Kendrick, so be it....

 

Kendrick seems to definitely be in play. I don't think the Dodgers really want to spend lavishly on Cano and Kendrick represents a good, cost-controlled 2B for a lot of teams. If the Dodgers are willing to part with Zach Lee (and that has to be the minimum starting point) then I'm sure talks will continue into the off season about it.

 

It really seems like the Dodgers, Rockies, Blue Jays, Royals, and Orioles are teams that would have significant interest in Kendrick at this time.

[Ohtaniland]

The Dodgers are in 1st place by a mile and could end up with the best record in baseball. They're preparing for a huge playoff run. Why would they want to Eff up the chemistry of that team by bringing in Scioscia and his big fat ego? I doubt that the Los Angeles Dodgers are interested in helping the Los Angeles Angels fix their problems. We need to find another suiter.

[ettin]

The Dodgers are in 1st place by a mile and could end up with the best record in baseball. They're preparing for a huge playoff run. Why would they want to Eff up the chemistry of that team by bringing in Scioscia and his big fat ego? I doubt that the Los Angeles Dodgers are interested in helping the Los Angeles Angels fix their problems. We need to find another suiter.

 

Regarding your first sentence, the Dodgers excellent record is probably the main reason why Mattingly didn't lose his job in mid-July. Despite your opinion and hate for Scioscia there are many teams that would sign him in a heartbeat if he was available on the open market and that includes the Dodgers who would probably go out of their way to place him on a pedestal and announce to the world that their World Series hero has come home to manage their franchise.

 

It may sound far-fetched to you Hamiltown but it is a reality you shouldn't ignore.

[Lifetime]

I don't get the title of the article. 

 

And I don't think this kind of scenario is very likely, to put it mildly. I also doubt there were any serious discussions about Kendrick. 

 

How is this a "reality you shouldn't ignore?" 

Edited August 27, 2013 by Lifetime

[DMVol]

... I also doubt there were any serious discussions about Kendrick. 

Link? 

[Lifetime]

Don't start dvol

[ettin]

I don't get the title of the article. 

 

And I don't think this kind of scenario is very likely, to put it mildly. I also doubt there were any serious discussions about Kendrick. 

 

Well the original title was just "Four True Outcomes" which is a refence to the baseball term "Three True Outcomes", which are a strikeout, walk, or home run. The title got something added after I sent it.

 

As always everyone is welcome to their opinion. If the Angels are serious about Scioscia not being here then you have to consider the Dodgers a trade partner to move his salary, it's that simple. Whether it is likely or not all depends on what Arte does with Mike, right? Ideally Arte won't want to just dump Mike's salary?

 

Rosenthal reported those trade discussions (link is in the article). You can doubt that all you want but Ken doesn't go out of his way to report things that aren't vetted and sourced so I would disagree with you readily about that remark.

[AngelsFaninGA]

It's a valid question.

[Lifetime]

Rosenthal and the rest of them post information about trade talks etc that are false all the time so I would disagree with you readily on that. 

 

I don't think the Dodgers are interested in that kind of trade thus the "very unlikely " comment. Whether Arte decides to move Scioscia or not, I don't think the Dodgers would do it. 

[Lifetime]

It's a valid question.

What is? 

[AngelsAndRamsFan]

"If Scioscia does go, look for an off season trade of 2B Howie Kendrick and M Mike Scioscia for prospects SP Zach Lee and SS Corey Seager plus one of either RP Kenley Jansen or RP Paco Rodriguez (the former being the more desirable target). The Dodgers would more than likely absorb a large amount of the contracts of both Kendrick and Scioscia."

 

This trade is totally unrealistic. Colletti would laugh at that trade proposal. Hopefully, the Dodgers would give up Zach Lee for Kendrick, but Scioscia with the amount of years left on his contract doesn't have any trade value. I think the Dodgers are going to keep Mattingley, but to play along, you honestly expect  the Dodgers to basically give up a very good prospect (Cory Seager) and a very good, young closer (Jansen) or another good RP  (Rodriguez) for Scioscia?   

[AngelsFaninGA]

What is? 

 DVol asking for proof that the Kendrick talks weren't serious. The statement was purely conjecture.