Why the Angels won't sell

[Amazing Larry]

Hamilton is starting to come out of it, hes hitting the ball the other way and having better at bats.

He's batting .222 with an OBP of .259 in July.

 

Dude still sucks.

[eaterfan]

The Rangers are on pace to win 90 games this year and that seems about right for the 2nd wild card team. If I set the over/under for the Angels in 2014 at 90.5 how many are taking the over if you bet your house on it? What moves could the Angels make that would get you to take the over?

 

I think even if they got Verlander for free I would still take the under. That's how far away this team is IMO.

[Angel Oracle]

Pitching is still what wins championships.       Let's hope this past off-season is a thing of the past (except for Vargas).

[T.G.]

I want to see the org lock up Trout...

 

In my mind - this is the most important objective for the front office.  Locking up Trout would go a long way to make season ticket holders and Angel fans in general feel good about the future.  This is absolutely the most important and meaningful thing they can do right now.

[Angelsjunky]

AJ, our Angels are stuck with a plan that didn't work. They should have rebuilt after the 2010 season. They went all in with Pujols and Hamilton which gets worse the next few years. I really wonder if Trout will want to hang around for this. I would hate to see him leave but I wouldn't blame him if he wanted to get out. This team looks like a longterm problem to fix.

 

I agree, but don't think it is quite as dire as you're saying. More in that in a moment.

 

 

I think the window to contend with those 4 being the centerpieces of the lineup and staff has already closed. Trout is the piece that will have to lead the Angels to a championship. Trout probably has about 10 years of great play left. That should be our window not the 3 years we have of Weaver and Wilson. I'd like to see this team rebuild right now and be true contenders for 6 years of the 10 with Trout than fake contenders for the next 3 and then stink for 7 years after that.

 

I wasn't saying that the Angels' window of opportunity is with those four, but that they establish a kind of baseline group that we'll have for the next 3+ years and are immovable. This doesn't mean that there won't be a better window later, but that the next few years have to take into account those four.

 

So for me the question is, how do you optimize chances of winning in the next 3 years while still building a stronger, younger core for 2017 and beyond?

 

Id be happy with

Weaver

Wilson

Free Agent-PTBNL

Vargas

Richards

 

I'm thinking the same. Vargas should be re-signed because he is, at worst, a league average starter. But he isn't the the type of pitcher you want as your #3, unless your #1-2 are Johnson and Schilling. But he's a nice pitcher to have at #4-5.

 

I still don't understand why a team can't rebuild with a high payroll. The owner is obviously blowing a lot of money not contending, but that doesn't mean it doesn't make baseball sense. If you look at the baseball circumstances this is the time to rebuild. Putting too much money into something isn't a reason to keep throwing more money at it. There is a time to cut losses and I think this team is at that point. There are some losses that probably can't be cut but some certainly can and doing it now will just make it easier to be good again faster in the future.

 

They can, which is why haven't given up all hope on this franchise. First of all consider:

 

1) The team as of right now is a moderate resurgence from Pujols and Hamilton, and another #3 starter, away from being a 90+ win team. Some may disagree, but look at how they've performed since mid-May: 31-24 (.564) is pretty good, a 91-win pace, and for much of that Pujols and Hamilton have stunk and the rotation has been shaky. If Pujols and Hamilton even improve to a decent level - say, .800-.850 OPS from each, - and if the Angels can get another solid mid-rotation starter, then that .564 stabilizes and even improves a bit.

 

2) Even though those four eat up a ton of salary over the next four years - $82M in 2014, $86M in 2015, and then rising to a high of $97 million in 2016, before dropping to $58M once Weaver and Wilson are free agents again - they still have some wiggle room, as much as say Oakland's entire payroll, above and beyond those four. I'm sure Billy Beane wouldn't mind the Angels' situation and could fill in the pieces like he always does. But the problem, of course, is that Jerry Dipoto hasn't shown that he's as smart as Beane. But the point being, they've got three very tight years - 2014-16 - but even then a bit of wiggle room, although not a whole lot when you add in Aybar's and Kendrick's combined $18 million per year, and whatever extension we can hope Trout will get.

 

But that 1st point is key - this team isn't as far away as their 46-51 record implies. They started really bad but have been pretty good (but not great) since mid-May. I think they can build on that next year and with only a solid starter should be good for 90ish wins (assuming Hamilton and Pujols bounce back a bit. If they bounce back a LOT, then we're definitely in business).

[Angel Oracle]

The key is also easing in current prospects over the next 1-4 years as current higher salaried players leave.

Kendrick -> Lindsey     

Aybar -> Rondon    

Callaspo -> Cowart   

Maybe Trumbo (arb eligible after this season) -> Calhoun   (Hamilton moving to DH?)

[DMVol]

I'm thinking the same. Vargas should be re-signed because he is, at worst, a league average starter. But he isn't the the type of pitcher you want as your #3, unless your #1-2 are Johnson and Schilling. But he's a nice pitcher to have at #4-5.

I don't know....He's been pretty consistent and under 4.00 for 3 of the last 4 years....that's a 3 on most staffs....probably not a 3 in a really good rotation....

[austin724]

So the people on here stating that Trout should just bolt on the team because they are having a bad season is ridiculous. 

[Angel Oracle]

Vargas at home = real good #3.

Vargas on the road = solid #5 bordering on decent #4.

 

That = solid #4, and yes should be re-signed.

[Chris]

I think the window has already closed.  We should build around Trout.  Sell off a few pieces and start rebuilding the system.  Shoot for middle or later part of this decade.

[Mauch Won]

Have a conversation with Downs, tell him you need to trade him to help restock the farm but that you want to resign him in the offseason.

 

If and when the Angels are eliminated, put Albert on the DL and get the foot fixed. His hitting improves when he can use the lower half.

 

Otherwise stand pat until the end of the season.  Keep Aybar and Howie through 2014 when you have a better idea where Yarbrough, Lindsey, and Stammets are in their development

 

When Albert goes on the DL for the foot bring Calhoun up to see if his bat plays in the bigs. If he is for real, go with Shuck, Calhoun, and Cowgill as your 3-4-5 in the OF and trade Bourjos in the offseason.  

 

Keep Hanson.  I am not sure that we have seen his best.  The two bereavement stints screwed up his season and probably lead to his time on the DL.  

 

Resign Vargas.  2 years $22M with options max.

 

Look for a number 3 but be prepared for Vargas, Hanson, Richards/Roth/Fill in the blank -not Blanton

[Docwaukee]

If you assume that Pujols and Hamilton are the best they are gonna be for the next two to three years, then I would say go ahead and get what you can for who you can. 

 

I don't think they are even close to operating under that assumption and neither am I. 

 

I think that people make the mistake of comparing Albert's and Josh's career numbers to where they are now.  Put their salaries aside and ask yourself what a reasonable level of production would be from these two to facilitate winning.  To me, it's about a .280avg and 30hrs (the rest of the numbers will fall into place otherwise).  That should be enough to make up for some pitching deficiencies and fairly realistic. 

 

Are the halos in a great position to win for the next three years?  No. 

Can they still win without having to blow up and start over? yes

[gotbeer]

IMO, Downs is probably the biggest trade chip we have right now.  A lefty reliever is something that contenders will be looking for.  

 

Also, you have to look at how the team is contructed.  Pujols and Hamilton are not going anywhere.  Trout can yield us pretty much an entire farm system, but chances are, unless he shows that he will absolutely not re-sign with the Angels, he's not going to be moved.  

 

Shuck is not a starting outfielder.  He would be better off on the bench.  Same with Cowgill.  So that's at least some bench depth.  That leaves Bourjos and Calhoun.  having one as bench depth would be nice.  But if one had to go, I would think teams would give more for Calhoun.  Just because he has 6 years of control left, where Bourjos is entering into expensive arbitration years.  

 

Trumbo is not going to be traded, because Pujols can't play the field.  There is no one else that can play firstbase on a regular basis.  This is a lack of depth issue.  Which brings us to 2b, SS and 3B.  Again, lack of depth leads us to them being on the not going to be traded list.  

 

As for starting pitching.  Seeing as what Texas just paid for a rental starter, you keep everything you have.  Except for maybe Blanton.  But who would trade for him anyways?  You try to re-sign Vargas, and you also keep Hanson.  That would put 4 in the rotation, and the last spot between Williams and Richards, and since we can't get rid of him, Blanton.  You also have to consider that starting pitching is just horrible this offseason in regards to free agents.  So filling a hole will be difficult.

 

Except for a few relievers, I don't see much changing between now and next season.

[Brent Maguire]

Dan Haren said a few months ago that it was hard to gel with a team that was changing players so often. I don't know how much merit that statement has but it was an interesting article. 

 

IMO, this team still has 90 win potential. Not this year clearly but I think think this team can be a playoff team next year. As Junky said, we are 1 good starter away from being a much better team. If Pujols gets healthy, he can be at least an .800 OPS bat next year which is much better than anything he's shown so far this year. 

 

I also think retooling would be viable option though. Trade guys like Downs, Bourjos/Calhoun, maybe more and see if you can field a good team in a few years. 

[Mark68]

Everyone seems high on Calhoun ... Do you see him as a possible starter next season or a utility player or trade bait?

I see him in one of two ways...2014 starter or trade bait.

 

I'd prefer the former.

[Angel Oracle]

Would be nice if we could luck out like the Astros did when they traded reliever Larry Anderson to the Red Sux for Jeff Bagwell.

[JAHV76]

After watching today's game they should trade all players they can get value in return except Trout. They need rebuilding big time

[beatlesrule]

They better freaking sell!

[SigBaby]

They dont need rebuilding. However, id like to see the pitching get younger via trades involving Frieri, Aybar, and Downs

[YouthofToday]

Facing reality is a false truth.

[austin724]

No, they just need to get rid of the junk and losers on this team. 

[Docwaukee]

Rebuild is the incorrect term. 

 

Turds are actually reshaped

[Docwaukee]

No, they just need to get rid of the junk and losers on this team. 

 

I just had a weird visual of Trout standing out in center by himself. 

[kevinb]

Trade everyone who has value except Trout. Rebuild and reset if the Angels don't do that then this is going to be one long 5 or 6 years

[YouthofToday]

I just had a weird visual of Trout standing out in center by himself.

Was Trout in a Dodger, Red Sox or Yankee jersey at the age of 28?