Rest of the offseason, post Shohei.

[BTH]

I’d like to see one of two approaches:

1) Retool on the fly, trying to contend in 2024 but setting yourself up for 2025 and beyond.

- Trade players like Drury, Rengifo, and Estévez.

- Sign Woodruff/Mahle to 2 year deals, with an eye on them returning in 2025.

- Fill out the rest of the roster with 1 year deals on bounce back candidates like Anderson, Hoskins, and Montas.

This sets you up to flip those players at the deadline for prospects and spend a lot in 2024 on Soto/Burnes.

2) Make moves to try and win now:

One of Snell/Montgomery in free agency (Yamamoto seems unrealistic), or one of Stroman/Imanaga, or trade for Bieber/Glasnow.

Sign a short-term DH: Turner, Pederson, Martinez, Hoskins, or Soler

Sign a high-leverage RP: Hicks or Stephenson.

- Use the rest of the money to fill out depth on the roster.

Edited December 10, 2023 by BTH

[Jason]

Watch Perry be happy with what they have internally and not do much. 

[tomsred]

9 hours ago, Stradling said:

I’d be very surprised if Yamamoto isn’t a Dodger 

The competition for Yamamoto is overboard in my opinion.  There is no way that I would chase him if I were the Angels.  Most of the suspected suitors have way more financial resources than us.

I would be more interested in following the Arizona model, don't just court higher priced free agents, but build younger depth and take chances on those who are blocked by a star players.

[wopphil]

I think JD Martinez plus a top arm (Burnes, Snell) would go a long way toward replacing Shohei’s production. I’d love to know the cost to acquire Eloy Jimenez. And an arm like Flaherty would make a lot of sense and shouldn’t be terribly cost prohibitive. It’s not inconceivable that this team could be good on paper (health permitting) with just a few right moves. But it will require spending. 

[Fake Chow]

I dont like the idea of signing a fulltime DH with Trout getting older and Rendon on the roster.  I feel like we need that spot to rotate them through to hopefully keep them healthy and in the lineup for a full season.

[totdprods]

7 minutes ago, wopphil said:

think JD Martinez plus a top arm (Burnes, Snell) would go a long way toward replacing Shohei’s production

So we’d be back to where we were, being like a 73 win team, with money tied up on a risky arm in Snell. 

The Angels cannot spend their way back into contention, not in one winter. 

Love Shohei, wanted him back, didn’t even really care if it was so expensive it effed the teams finances up, but it’s a blessing in disguise. Baseball is changing, even more so after the Ohtani deal, where the star players are going to be paid even more exorbitantly. The Arte method of spending big on a couple players has not worked and won’t work anytime soon. And before anyone replies with “but the Rangers!” bear in mind they also had a ton of good young talent to support and did a good job on mid-level signings. That’s probably the closest hybrid of approaches the Arte-owned Angels can take if they want to compete, but they can’t turn that ship around in one winter, nor did the Rangers. 

Punt 2024. Do what will be best this year to develop the young core. Give them mentors, give them complimentary pieces to keep pressure from mounting, acquire guys who can be traded for farm depth or guys who can contribute through say, 2025-2026 at most, and bide our time for a season or two.

[T.G.]

No matter how much Angel fans might want the Angels to punt 2024 and start a full rebuild. It's not going to happen as long as Arte is the owner.  And no matter how much Angel fans want him to sell, there aren't any indications he's going to. None. 

It's not only time to move on from Ohtani, but also from the hope of a traditional rebuild or Arte selling the team.

We can only hope they make smart moves to improve the team and Trout, Rendon, etc. stay healthy. 

[mmc]

15 minutes ago, totdprods said:

So we’d be back to where we were, being like a 73 win team, with money tied up on a risky arm in Snell. 

The Angels cannot spend their way back into contention, not in one winter. 

Love Shohei, wanted him back, didn’t even really care if it was so expensive it effed the teams finances up, but it’s a blessing in disguise. Baseball is changing, even more so after the Ohtani deal, where the star players are going to be paid even more exorbitantly. The Arte method of spending big on a couple players has not worked and won’t work anytime soon. And before anyone replies with “but the Rangers!” bear in mind they also had a ton of good young talent to support and did a good job on mid-level signings. That’s probably the closest hybrid of approaches the Arte-owned Angels can take if they want to compete, but they can’t turn that ship around in one winter, nor did the Rangers. 

Punt 2024. Do what will be best this year to develop the young core. Give them mentors, give them complimentary pieces to keep pressure from mounting, acquire guys who can be traded for farm depth or guys who can contribute through say, 2025-2026 at most, and bide our time for a season or two.

You keep saying this and I agree with you but there’s zero chance of this happening, management is going to try to compete next year 

[totdprods]

30 minutes ago, T.G. said:

No matter how much Angel fans might want the Angels to punt 2024 and start a full rebuild. It's not going to happen as long as Arte is the owner. 

Don’t think it needs a full rebuild. Punting one year and trading guys on expiring contracts now instead of the deadline - Estevez and Drury - and maybe one arb. player like Sandoval or Rengifo, isn’t a rebuild in my book. I wouldn’t deal all of them, but definitely think moving one is wise because they actually have good value and are unlikely to really be a critical part of the next core. Even if they did do that, I’d still advocate for them signing another reliever and infielder for comprable 2-yr deals to replace those guys for this year and have them around next year too, which I think is a more viable year to start competing again.

18 minutes ago, mmc said:

You keep saying this and I agree with you but there’s zero chance of this happening, management is going to try to compete next year 

Well it’s a discussion board, I’ll keep discussing it. And punting 2024 doesn’t mean giving up on 2024, it just means avoiding monster contracts for guys like Snell or Bellinger who aren’t contracts worth gambling on. Of course the Angels are going to say they’re going to be competitive, they haven’t stopped saying that for a decade yet they’ve never really been competitive. That doesn’t mean what’s said in public is what’s happening in private. 

And fwiw, Arte has shown some signs of ‘changing’ in that he 1) let Perry talk him away from Trea Turner 2) spent more last winter than anticipated, pushing payroll to its highest by a decent amount, and 3) went even further with deadline adds. Obviously that didn’t all work out, but it deviated from years prior. 

Back to 2024…they absolutely can still compete this year, and I don’t think they should tear down or avoid spending - they just need to do it in a manner that supports 2025+ more than 2024. They could sign Snell and Bellinger tomorrow, call it an offseason, and all they really did was replace Ohtani with two players a la Bavasi’s “8-7 pitchers”, perhaps two players who are far riskier. 

Trade Drury and Estevez now. Move an arb guy if it gets you a really good return. Sign a couple 3/30 type deals, be it a Lugo, Lorenzen, Wacha, maybe even a Gurriel or Soler, a 2/16 type reliever to closer. Even open to Yamamoto or the other Asian players coming over. And try your hand on a couple 1-yr gambles; Giolito, Montas, Flaherty, Alrodis, Tim Anderson, Joey Gallo, whoever fits and whoever has a decent chance at bringing back another Moniak+Sanchez at deadline. That team couple be competitive, could be bad, but it won’t have cost the Angels so much that 2025+ is a financial mess.

Edited December 11, 2023 by totdprods

[Turd Ferguson]

Without his golden goose, hopefully Arte circles back on some of those offers to buy the team. This whole franchise needs a hard reset.

[HBAngel13]

12 minutes ago, totdprods said:

Don’t think it needs a full rebuild. Punting one year and trading guys on expiring contracts now instead of the deadline - Estevez and Drury - and maybe one arb. player like Sandoval or Rengifo, isn’t a rebuild in my book. I wouldn’t deal all of them, but definitely think moving one is wise because they actually have good value and are unlikely to really be a critical part of the next core. Even if they did do that, I’d still advocate for them signing another reliever and infielder for comprable 2-yr deals to replace those guys for this year and have them around next year too, which I think is a more viable year to start competing again.

Well it’s a discussion board, I’ll keep discussing it. And punting 2024 doesn’t mean giving up on 2024, it just means avoiding monster contracts for guys like Snell or Bellinger who aren’t contracts worth gambling on. Of course the Angels are going to say they’re going to be competitive, they haven’t stopped saying that for a decade yet they’ve never really been competitive. That doesn’t mean what’s said in public is what’s happening in private. 

And fwiw, Arte has shown some signs of ‘changing’ in that he 1) let Perry talk him away from Trea Turner 2) spent more last winter than anticipated, pushing payroll to its highest by a decent amount, and 3) went even further with deadline adds. Obviously that didn’t all work out, but it deviated from years prior. 

Back to 2024…they absolutely can still compete this year, and I don’t think they should tear down or avoid spending - they just need to do it in a manner that supports 2025+ more than 2024. They could sign Snell and Bellinger tomorrow, call it an offseason, and all they really did was replace Ohtani with two players a la Bavasi’s “8-7 pitchers”, perhaps two players who are far riskier. 

Trade Drury and Estevez now. Move an arb guy if it gets you a really good return. Sign a couple 3/30 type deals, be it a Lugo, Lorenzen, Wacha, maybe even a Gurriel or Soler, a 2/16 type reliever to closer. Even open to Yamamoto or the other Asian players coming over. And try your hand on a couple 1-yr gambles; Giolito, Montas, Flaherty, Alrodis, Tim Anderson, Joey Gallo, whoever fits and whoever has a decent chance at bringing back another Moniak+Sanchez at deadline. That team couple be competitive, could be bad, but it won’t have cost the Angels so much that 2025+ is a financial mess.

Totally in agreement with this. I don’t think they are THAT far away with the emergence of the young core. Use 2024 to figure out who is for real and then push the chips in for 2025. If they get uncharacteristic good luck and health, they could compete for final WC this next year, but they shouldn’t bank on that.  
 

Perry should be opportunistic this offseason on trades for the Drury/Estevez/Renigfo/Ward/Sandoval group, but those guys should have value at the deadline as well. Sandoval is the guy that probably brings you the most now. 

[Tyler]

Trade Ward, Sandoval, and Thaiss for Glasnow. Sign Snell, Maldonado, Moustakas, and Jordan Hicks. 

[HBAngel13]

It seems like there are great value options on the pitching side this year - Wacha, Lorenzen, Lugo, Montas and Flaherty could all help this team without breaking the bank. Especially if they allow you to flip Sandoval to a team like BAL for a couple longer term pieces to pair with the young core. 

[mmc]

23 minutes ago, Tyler said:

Trade Ward, Sandoval, and Thaiss for Glasnow. Sign Snell, Maldonado, Moustakas, and Jordan Hicks. 

I’m good thanks

[Blarg]

5 minutes ago, HBAngel13 said:

It seems like there are great value options on the pitching side this year - Wacha, Lorenzen, Lugo, Montas and Flaherty could all help this team without breaking the bank. Especially if they allow you to flip Sandoval to a team like BAL for a couple longer term pieces to pair with the young core. 

Sandoval is 27 and has 3 more seasons of team control. He is part of the younger core. It seems like there are names that become obsessions on this board whether it is trade for or trade away and most are just bad ideas.

Last season the entire pitching staff took a step back from the previous season. It was from the coaching side and those guys are gone. So please temper your ideas with that in mind, the young, cost controlled pitching staff, is not getting any valuable return in trade after a poor season.

Baltimore is not giving up valuable prospects for a pitcher you don't value. So you will be trading down not up, they will get the bounce back and you get maybe a fringe reliever or a Squid infielder. 

[totdprods]

17 minutes ago, Blarg said:

Sandoval is 27 and has 3 more seasons of team control. He is part of the younger core. It seems like there are names that become obsessions on this board whether it is trade for or trade away and most are just bad ideas.

Last season the entire pitching staff took a step back from the previous season. It was from the coaching side and those guys are gone. So please temper your ideas with that in mind, the young, cost controlled pitching staff, is not getting any valuable return in trade after a poor season.

Baltimore is not giving up valuable prospects for a pitcher you don't value. So you will be trading down not up, they will get the bounce back and you get maybe a fringe reliever or a Squid infielder. 

Sandoval has plenty of value. He’s a good young lefty with at times promising metrics and has been pretty durable. That’s exactly why I’m floating him as a trade candidate. He actually has value. 

He has three years left of control. One of those is 2024, a year where we’re out Shohei and behind the last two WS winners plus one other good team. I do not expect the Angels to be any more competitive in 2024, and likely 2025, than they have been the last decade. That’s two of Sandoval’s three years. So now we’re competitive in 2026, and Sandoval is a free agent at years end. He won’t fetch much at the deadline, even if he’s an ace - which, despite what positives he has, I can’t see him becoming - and he’s now set to sign elsewhere. He won’t likely get a QO. He likely walks, and the Angels again get no future value. 

It’s not that I want him gone or think he isn’t good, quite the opposite. He’s a sacrificial lamb of sorts. He’s probably due to get about $30m in arb over the next three years, two of which we’re likely fringe competitors at best. Why not just plunk down 3/$30m for someone like Lugo, Wacha, Lorenzen, Flaherty, all guys who should realistically match what Sandoval has been and is likely to give us, have that arm as a possible future trade piece since it’s a good contract, and net someone like a purely theoretical Jordan Westburg or Garrett Mitchell or Spencer Steer now, someone pre-arb who club control years better fit our likelier contention window? Why wouldn’t a team interested in Sandoval not just sign one of those arms? Well, they haven’t. If they do, then there goes that. Perhaps they see upside in Sandoval they’re confident in unlocking, whereas they feel the FA class is about as good as they’ll be. Age also a factor.

Same could be said for Rengifo, even Ward before his HBP, but the value isn’t quite as high, nor do the Angels have internal or external replacements they could pivot to. So it’s Sandoval sort of by default. Canning too, but we are thin on RHP. It’s not about rebuilding or trading for the sake of trading, it’s recognizing when to maximize the value of a player and selling a year too soon rather than a year too late.

Edited December 11, 2023 by totdprods

[Blarg]

47 minutes ago, totdprods said:

Sandoval has plenty of value. He’s a good young lefty with at times promising metrics and has been pretty durable.

Then why trade him?

47 minutes ago, totdprods said:

He’s probably due to get about $30m in arb over the next three years, two of which we’re likely fringe competitors at best. Why not just plunk down 3/$30m for someone like Lugo, Wacha, Lorenzen, Flaherty, all guys who should realistically match what Sandoval has been

Because you can sign an extension to Sandoval, that is four years or more younger than those guys, and give you longer service time for less than buying short-term pitchers at the end of their careers.

Flaherty has gone from 27 to 20 to 7 starts over the last 3 years. He is not a candidate to replace Sandoval, he is a bridge partner for Rendon.

Lugo is a 34 year old converted reliever last season because San Diego was desperate. He is Lorenzen, which is not a compliment. 

Lorenzen pitched his most starts in his career and Philly moved him to the pen because he crashed and burned for them in the second half. His resume says one year deals. 

Wacha stalls out at 23 starts per season. The Angels are going back to a five man rotation so he is 9 starts short of a season. Last season he missed 2 months of service between June and August. In 2022 he missed all of July. Seems like a pattern that is going the wrong direction.

I'm not seeing the upside in your trade Sandoval for unknown player(s) and rolling the dice for 3 years on guys that are one year contract guys. In the long run Sandoval is cheaper and more reliable. 

 

 

[Hubs]

1 hour ago, Tyler said:

Trade Ward, Sandoval, and Thaiss for Glasnow. Sign Snell, Maldonado, Moustakas, and Jordan Hicks. 

It won’t cost this much.

[totdprods]

3 minutes ago, Blarg said:

Then why trade him?

I stated all of those reasons pretty clearly in the parts you didn’t quote.

4 minutes ago, Blarg said:

Because you can sign an extension to Sandoval, that is four years or more younger than those guys, and give you longer service time for less than buying short-term pitchers at the end of their careers.

How often have the Angels extended non-Trout players in the last decade? How often have those worked out? Stassi? Fletcher?

How likely do you think Sandoval would want to sign an extension here right now? Why wouldn’t he want to test FA at 30? We didn’t lock in Richards, Heaney, Skaggs at any point, and they arguably were as successful as Sandoval has been at certain points. Obviously if the conditions were favorable for team and player to sign that extension it changes the calculus, but as of now, neither the org’s track record of extensions or their recent performance leads me to think that’s going to happen. Maybe Perry starts pulling that off with the young core this season and next winter as the Braves did, but considering he’s in his final year and the 2024 outcome isn’t terribly promising, I’m not banking on him being here to carry out that plan.

And I should thank you for elaborating on the other arms - that actually went into detail that I held out for brevity about why a team interested in Sandoval wouldn’t just sign one of those guys. 

Lugo wasn’t converted because SDP was desperate, he went into free agency seeking a SP gig, which he was originally. His ERA last season, in 150 innings, was 3.57, nearly identical to Sandoval’s 3-yr ERA of 3.53. He was across the board nearly identical, if not better, in one season than Sandy’s last three. Is durability a question? Sure. Age? Sure. Regression away from NL West? Sure. But I’d say he’s about as close to replicating in 2024 and perhaps 2025 what we’ve got from Sandoval the last three seasons, and that’s exactly why I argued in favor of those names. If this scenario did happen, the Angels would have no problem moving Lugo this or next July, only adding to the youth movement. 

Wacha’s metrics over his last two seasons are in the same range. Yeah he tops at 23 GS or so, but that’s where guys like Silseth and Davis get a shot. He’s won (I know lame stat) more games (25-11) in the last two years than Sandoval has in his career (17-37). Lorenzen isn’t great but he’s not as terrible as his late-season collapse, plus he actually wants to be here which 1) helps with cost and 2) is a positive around the rookies. And he still could be halfway decent, as could Flaherty who has youth on his side. 

The point in focusing on those four names isn’t about landing Sandoval’s upside; it’s replacing his floor immediately so we don’t ‘lose’ what we’ve had, and they’ve all been fairly comparable to Sandoval’s actual/floor - not his ceiling, but we don’t stand to benefit from that as the team or division is currently drawn up, lest we wait and sell him this deadline or next if he’s at an upside level then. 

[totdprods]

Had Kyren Paris or Jo Adell come up last year and kicked ass in an audition, I'd be making the exact same case for Luis Rengifo (or Taylor Ward had he not been HBP) instead of Patrick Sandoval, but alas. And part of why I feel Sandoval is "sellable" is because I believe in things like Detmers realizing his potential, Silseth and/or Daniel emerging as a secure rotation guy, and Anderson having a semi-bounceback campaign. Sign a FA arm or two and the rotation is in good shape.

It's nothing against Sandoval per se, it's missing up on an opportunity to capitalize on a player's value before we lose them for nothing, much as we saw happen with Ohtani, Calhoun, Richards, Heaney...

The best thing the Angels can do over the next 18 months or so is sell high on guys like Sandoval, Ward, Rengifo, and perhaps Canning when they're in the middle of their arb years, before they start hitting free agency right when the Perry-driven Halos young core starts clicking, rather than watching them walk. And it's not a binary 'sell or keep' decision either. There has to be demand for them, the Angels have to be not seriously contending, the Angels need to have a plan to replace either internally or via FA...don't sell for the sake of selling, but do recognize when that opportunity is there to improve your ballclub beyond the next three years, given that the Angels' best contention window doesn't really start until probably after 2025.

Edited December 11, 2023 by totdprods

[bruin5]

I would wait on trading Sandoval, Ward, and/or Rengifo. Next season is a throw away year but these guys could provide better return at the trade deadline (assuming they have good years). 

[totdprods]

5 minutes ago, bruin5 said:

I would wait on trading Sandoval, Ward, and/or Rengifo. Next season is a throw away year but these guys could provide better return at the trade deadline (assuming they have good years). 

I can agree with that. All of them could up their trade stock with a strong start, and they shouldn’t really lose any value unless they totally crater. No problem holding Sandoval until the deadline. 

But I do maintain that the FO should have selling high on these guys starting now through Deadline ‘25 in the back of their mind, and be opportunistic as the market allows.

[Kendo36]

This FA class has so much risk and will be overpaid because of lack of supply. Also, the Angels are down bad. Only way anyone signs here is an extreme overpay. We are much better off standing pat and letting the kids show their worth and hope Trout and Rendon turn it around, then hopefully become a better FA destination in 25'. 

[Angels 1961]

I keep Sandoval and do not like Glasnow he is always hurt. Sandoval with new pitching we'll see big improvement. I stay away from Bellinger, Moose, Joc and Stroman. Perry is working on something and I think will be a surprise. I like Mitch Garver DH some catch twice a week. This team will surprise next year. Ohtani cloud will be gone, trade him or try and win with him, 6 man rotation. Last season all year talk was about Ohtani. Trout being healthy has big year and halos in race in September.

[Duren, Duren]

The Ohtani situation  was inadvertently a cancer on the team in 2022. The theme of the entire season was about keeping Ohtani long term.

In other words, extreme short term moves to 'win now'  to make the team attractive for Ohtani. The entire trade deadline was dedicated to that objective. 

Of course, winning for it's own sake is always the main motivation. But the Angels narrative last season was winning to impress Ohtani enough to remain. 

As good as he was, in retrospect it looks like a sad perversion of what fans look forward to. Namely, team success without one player standing above the others because of his own immanent desires and preferences. 

I'm actually looking forward to watching a team, rather than a soap opera. Obviously they won't be as good, but the circus atmosphere will dissipate and baseball will be the focus.

And how many tourists and Ohtani only groupies do you think will remain Angel fans? If they ever actually were fans of the team itself.

It's a new phase. Nothing wrong with a reset and a new focus and approach. It's not like the Angels were contenders ever during the Ohtani years. 

Washington should be the right manager for this phase. And a pretty solid group of new coaches. 

As long as Arte doesn't intrude heavily and just let the next phase progress organically. A few smart acquisitions may still produce a team that is better than it has been during the Ohtani years. .500 isn't that unattainable. A modest, but positive goal.