The Official Los Angeles Angels 2023-2024 Hot Stove Offseason Thread

[CartiHalos]

24 minutes ago, Ochocinco! said:

I think if we are expecting Duvall to give us 80-90 games then we are fine and hes a solid depth piece id be happy with but if we are expecting Duvall to play 120-150 games then we are f*cked. 

I think ideally if we get him it's because we're spending big on pitching, and he's somewhat in a hybrid platoon where Duvall starts against lefties and some against righties, and Mickey gets his ABs against righties.

Edited January 5 by CartiHalos

[Lazorko Saves]

44 minutes ago, Chuck said:

your photoshops are so good* that I use some of them for our social media account on X.

* - You misspelled "bad".

Chuck you're always welcome to use any of my silly nonsense.

[Inside Pitch]

2 hours ago, greginpsca said:

He rarely pulls the ball.

So, I read this and looked it up.

Don't look now but that's some Howie Kendrick level boringly consistent batted ball data across the board.  It's really too early to make any sort of proclamations but in his extremely limited sample size he's hit the ball all over - he's just not making hard contact yet.

But check out his run values and expected averages by pitch type

He's not having trouble with MLB fastballs, his xSLG of .474 tends to argue he's shown a bit more than people think.  But, like all young guys he's struggling against things that bend -- some of that is unfamiliarity, some of it is just the reality that he's not as strong as he needs to be.

But if you look at where his numbers landed compared to the league (and again, the sample size makes it all noise) -- he did better than the "but he doesn't have power" crowd think he has.

His sweet spot % of 40% was crazy good, sweet spot% being classified as a batted ball event with a launch angle of 8-32% -- So, hopefully he's eating his Wheaties and lifting weights.  The thing to look for as he progresses is his pull rate on FBs, that's going to be the sign he's identifying and swinging hard at FBs, more importantly it would show he's able to actually PULL them. 

IMO he just lacks the strength right now.  What I don't know if the weak contact is all about his lacking strength or if it's partially a case of a guy taking defensive swings because he doesn't know the pitchers or their movement.

But that 40% sweet spot figure is really pretty nuts for a guy with as little minor league time as he's had.  

 

 

[Chuck]

10 minutes ago, Inside Pitch said:

IMO he just lacks the strength right now.  What I don't know if the weak contact is all about his lacking strength or if it's partially a case of a guy taking defensive swings because he doesn't know the pitchers or their movement.

I agree that Schanuel needs to put on some muscle and that when he does the power numbers will increase. 

As far as the defensive swings, the same thing can be said about Cody Bellinger's season in '23. His BA/OBP were up, his two-strike approach was amazing, but because of that his exit velocities were way down from his norm.

[Inside Pitch]

11 hours ago, Chuck said:

As far as the defensive swings, the same thing can be said about Cody Bellinger's season in '23. His BA/OBP were up, his two-strike approach was amazing, but because of that his exit velocities were way down from his norm.

Can it? 

Cody Bellinger knows the league and the pitchers. I too read how he made an effort to change his approach and I bought into the narrative until I went looking at the the numbers.

Unless you have the swing/batted ball data by count -- the stuff I've looked at doesn't support that opinion or is pretty inconclusive. Overall he made better contact while chasing more pitches, but there's contradictory stuff all up and down his batted ball stuff.  It really screams BABIP driven fluke. 

People keep saying his two strike approach was amazing but they are just parroting each other, he really wasn't all that different from 2022, he just got significantly better results, most of it being batting average driven.

2023 pitcher ahead - 207 PAs .292/.300/.467 .340 BABiP
2022 pitcher ahead - 189 PAs  .170/.175/.303 .235 BABiP

That .467 SLG% looks like a big difference but we are talking about a net difference of 2 HRs, (7 extra base hits), his BABIP on the other hand was .045 higher than the league average overall and 0.63 higher than the league average when the pitcher was ahead. 

I know people want to sign someone and Bellinger is a guy people like, but there was a ton of noise in his season last year that can't simply be dismissed as "he improved his two strike approach." I can't claim to have seen him play enough to have any opinion other than what the nerd stuff is pointing towards and I'll be the first to say the numbers don't always show the why so much as the what, but again, that nerd stuff is worrisome.

He's a quality player and has a great deal of defensive value but I'd steer clear of him.

The Angels never do what I hope they would so, I won't care either way..

[Angels 1961]

For years and money he will want I stay away from Bellinger. Save money for pitching this year and next.

[halodground]

51 minutes ago, Inside Pitch said:

Can it? 

Cody Bellinger knows the league and the pitchers. I too read how he made an effort to change his approach and I bought into the narrative until I went looking at the the numbers.

Unless you have the swing/batted ball data by count -- the stuff I've looked at doesn't support that opinion or rather is pretty inconclusive. Overall he made better contact while chasing more pitches, but there's contradictory stuff all up and down his batted ball stuff.  It really screams BABIP driven fluke. 

People keep saying his two strike approach was amazing but they are just parroting each other, he really wasn't all that different from 2022, he just got significantly better results, most of it being batting average driven.

2023 pitcher ahead - 207 PAs .292/.300/.467 .340 BABiP
2022 pitcher ahead - 189 PAs  .170/.175/.303 .235 BABiP

That .467 SLG% looks like a big difference but we are talking about a net difference of 2 HRs, (7 extra base hits), his BABIP on the other hand was .045 higher than the league average overall and 0.63 higher than the league average when the pitcher was ahead. 

I know people want to sign someone and Bellinger is a guy people like, but there was a ton of noise in his season last year that can't simply be dismissed as "he improved his two strike approach." I can't claim to have seen him play enough to have any opinion other than what the nerd stuff is pointing towards and I'll be the first to say the numbers don't always show the why so much as the what, but again, that nerd stuff is worrisome.

He's a quality player and has a great deal of defensive value but I'd steer clear of him.

The Angels never do what I hope they would so, I won't care either way..

Bellinger is the guy I'm most afraid Arte pushes for. He just screams typical Moreno-era Angels free agent bust to me. More gut feeling than anything, but your post seems to back that a little. 

Edited January 5 by halodground

[jsnpritchett]

 

 

[Stradling]

20 minutes ago, jsnpritchett said:

 

 

As someone who recently started traveling for work I wonder how the radio announcers feel about not traveling?  During the summer I travel just about every other week and it’s a tough stretch for me.  As a fan I want them traveling with the team, but I wonder if they are perfectly fine without it. 

[Stradling]

 

[Inside Pitch]

7 minutes ago, Stradling said:

 

This dude was a baller.  

[Chuck]

3 hours ago, Stradling said:

As someone who recently started traveling for work I wonder how the radio announcers feel about not traveling?  During the summer I travel just about every other week and it’s a tough stretch for me.  As a fan I want them traveling with the team, but I wonder if they are perfectly fine without it. 

Yep. I used to love traveling for work. Now that I'm in my 50's I hate it and thankfully I don't have to travel much (1-2 times a year) and I work from home. I love it. 

[Chuck]

11 hours ago, Inside Pitch said:

Can it? 

Cody Bellinger knows the league and the pitchers. I too read how he made an effort to change his approach and I bought into the narrative until I went looking at the the numbers.

Unless you have the swing/batted ball data by count -- the stuff I've looked at doesn't support that opinion or is pretty inconclusive. Overall he made better contact while chasing more pitches, but there's contradictory stuff all up and down his batted ball stuff.  It really screams BABIP driven fluke. 

People keep saying his two strike approach was amazing but they are just parroting each other, he really wasn't all that different from 2022, he just got significantly better results, most of it being batting average driven.

2023 pitcher ahead - 207 PAs .292/.300/.467 .340 BABiP
2022 pitcher ahead - 189 PAs  .170/.175/.303 .235 BABiP

That .467 SLG% looks like a big difference but we are talking about a net difference of 2 HRs, (7 extra base hits), his BABIP on the other hand was .045 higher than the league average overall and 0.63 higher than the league average when the pitcher was ahead. 

I know people want to sign someone and Bellinger is a guy people like, but there was a ton of noise in his season last year that can't simply be dismissed as "he improved his two strike approach." I can't claim to have seen him play enough to have any opinion other than what the nerd stuff is pointing towards and I'll be the first to say the numbers don't always show the why so much as the what, but again, that nerd stuff is worrisome.

He's a quality player and has a great deal of defensive value but I'd steer clear of him.

The Angels never do what I hope they would so, I won't care either way..

Thanks for the deep dive @Inside Pitch. You just talked me out of wanting anything to do with Bellinger. I already was against the signing initially but started to warm to the idea after losing Ohtani. 

[Dtwncbad]

3 hours ago, jsnpritchett said:

 

 

But they don’t have to pay the airlines until 2034.

[Biergott]

31 minutes ago, Chuck said:

Yep. I used to love traveling for work. Now that I'm in my 50's I hate it and thankfully I don't have to travel much (1-2 times a year) and I work from home. I love it. 

Totally.  Traveling is a young man’s game.  I used to travel 25-40 weeks a year for 15 years.  Most internationally.  I loved it.

but once I became a father it started to destroy me.

Once I got into a new job with minimal travel, I realized how brutal it is.  Just those 5-6 trip a year domestically would ruin me lol.

and I’m not 50 yet lol…couple more months before AARP gets their mitts on me

I bet the guys are just fine working remotely

 

[Inside Pitch]

40 minutes ago, Chuck said:

Thanks for the deep dive @Inside Pitch. You just talked me out of wanting anything to do with Bellinger. I already was against the signing initially but started to warm to the idea after losing Ohtani. 

His defense, the versatility that comes with it, and his handedness, are ideal for what the Angels need -- but that weirdness in his performance is hard to ignore. They lose nothing by continuing to monitor his free agency, if his market craters maybe it starts to make sense.  But the nerd stuff really does worry me with him simply because he won't be cheap and the Angels can't take on another long term mistake.

[Erstad Grit]

Plesac working on Gausman's splitter at driveline 

 

 

[Ron Mexico]

https://twitter.com/JimBowdenGM/status/1743327841217909129?t=wmPpFCvoY4PhgqRI8J4zmQ&s=19

 

 

 

[EdmontonAngelsFan]

Angels a finalist for Imanga...well, there's some Hot Stove action for ya!

[Angelsfan1984]

another lefty? 

[AngelStew43]

Sign him, then trade 1 to fill another area, 3B, OF, DH, whatever.

[Ron Mexico]

10 minutes ago, Angelsfan1984 said:

another lefty? 

If we sign him I am sure one will be traded 

[Erstad Grit]

12 minutes ago, Angelsfan1984 said:

another lefty? 

I'd rather have a great lefty than an average righty. The rotation isn't a pen, I don't see the need to have diversity. Finley, Langston, and Abbott were all leftys and I loved that rotation. 

[totdprods]

6 minutes ago, Ron Mexico said:

If we sign him I am sure one will be traded 

Honestly with some of the money moved this winter wouldn't be surprised if they were able to move Anderson after all.

[Russell Feathers]

7 minutes ago, Erstad Grit said:

I'd rather have a great lefty than an average righty. The rotation isn't a pen, I don't see the need to have diversity. Finley, Langston, and Abbott were all leftys and I loved that rotation. 

I agree. I wouldn't mind 5 leftys in a rotation, if they were all good. I'm a big fan of lefty starters. Rightys are great when they have a power arm, but average rightys get rocked. I always hate seeing the Angels sign Joe Blanton types who are going to have a 4+ ERA.