MLBN-Morosi: Angels are now in a listening mode with Shohei Ohtani trade inquiries

[Angels 1961]

29 minutes ago, Dtwncbad said:

Give us this long list of needs for 2024.

They need to keep Ohtani, get some progression with some of their young players, and stay relatively healthy.

What are odds Ohtani resigns with Angels? He wants to play on big stage. Over 125 million on 3 players and 2 of those 3 have missed so much time last 3 years. Odds Angels make playoffs this year are very slim. Ohtani is going to test FA and be gone. 

[Angels 1961]

16 minutes ago, Dtwncbad said:

I actually think it would be harder to win in 2024.  Trading Ohtani now means almost certainly this team isn’t winning this year.  So they need to be better next year.

They would have to replace Ohtani the pitcher, replace Ohtani the hitter and then improve beyond that.  I just don’t think you are going to get enough talent back in a trade for Ohtani to immediately (2024) replace the productivity of Ohtani.

Do we think the team either has that kind of prospect talent ready to graduate and perform in 2024, or that the team will be able to sign that much talent in free agency?

To me, the far more realistic path to win soon involves keeping Ohtani.

 

The question is does Ohtani want to come back?

[Dtwncbad]

Just now, Angels 1961 said:

The question is does Ohtani want to come back?

Why do you ask when you are already so certain?

[Ace-Of-Diamonds]

Getting unproven prospects for a superstar doesn't always work out great for the team giving up the superstar. Look back at 2 of the biggest trades trades in the last 15+ years:

Let's revisit the facts. On December 7th, 2007 the Marlins agreed to trade Miguel Cabrera and Dontrell Willis to the Detroit Tigers for outfielder Cameron Maybin, pitcher Andrew Miller, catcher Mike Rabelo and minor league pitchers Eulogio De La Cruz, Dallas Trahern and Burke Badenhop. Look again at those names.

HOUSTON -- The Astros pulled off a blockbuster trade late Thursday, acquiring former American League Cy Young Award winner Justin Verlander from the Detroit Tigers.
The Astros sent right-hander Franklin Perez (No. 3 Astros prospect, per MLBPipeline.com), outfielder Daz Cameron (No. 9) and catcher Jake Rogers (No. 11) to the Tigers, as the teams completed the deal in the minutes leading up to the Aug. 31 deadline for a player to be eligible for the postseason roster.

Edited July 25, 2023 by Ace-Of-Diamonds

[Dtwncbad]

9 minutes ago, Angels 1961 said:

What are odds Ohtani resigns with Angels? He wants to play on big stage. Over 125 million on 3 players and 2 of those 3 have missed so much time last 3 years. Odds Angels make playoffs this year are very slim. Ohtani is going to test FA and be gone. 

So for the record, you can’t give us this long list of needs for 2024 (outside of replacing Ohtani himself).

 

[Jeff Fletcher]

16 minutes ago, Angels 1961 said:

What are odds Ohtani resigns with Angels?

30 percent if they keep him. 
 

3 percent if they trade him. 

[Dtwncbad]

7 minutes ago, Jeff Fletcher said:

30 percent if they keep him. 
 

3 percent if they trade him. 

I would say zero percent if they trade him.

He is a competitive guy in a battle for a postseason spot right now, and trading him tells him the ownership/management BOTH a). punted on third down, and b). didn’t prioritize keeping him.

Who would want to choose to continue that relationship?

It’s pretty close to zero percent.

Edited July 25, 2023 by Dtwncbad

[Angels 1961]

25 minutes ago, Dtwncbad said:

Why do you ask when you are already so certain?

I said he will test FA just like Judge did last year. Why would he not test FA.

[Angels 1961]

13 minutes ago, Jeff Fletcher said:

30 percent if they keep him. 
 

3 percent if they trade him. 

What percentage Ohtani test FA?

[Angels 1961]

I feel if halos are 6 games back after Sunday they should trade Ohtani. Chances making playoffs would be about 5%. I think Minasian and Mr. Moreno know chances of resigning Ohtani and what they would spend.

[Dtwncbad]

Just now, Angels 1961 said:

I said he will test FA just like Judge did last year. Why would he not test FA.

You are a genius.  Ohtani is a pending free agent and you think he will become a free agent.

 

[DMVol]

28 minutes ago, Ace-Of-Diamonds said:

Getting unproven prospects for a superstar doesn't always work out great for the team giving up the superstar. Look back at 2 of the biggest trades trades in the last 15+ years:

Let's revisit the facts. On December 7th, 2007 the Marlins agreed to trade Miguel Cabrera and Dontrell Willis to the Detroit Tigers for outfielder Cameron Maybin, pitcher Andrew Miller, catcher Mike Rabelo and minor league pitchers Eulogio De La Cruz, Dallas Trahern and Burke Badenhop. Look again at those names.

HOUSTON -- The Astros pulled off a blockbuster trade late Thursday, acquiring former American League Cy Young Award winner Justin Verlander from the Detroit Tigers.
The Astros sent right-hander Franklin Perez (No. 3 Astros prospect, per MLBPipeline.com), outfielder Daz Cameron (No. 9) and catcher Jake Rogers (No. 11) to the Tigers, as the teams completed the deal in the minutes leading up to the Aug. 31 deadline for a player to be eligible for the postseason roster.

There are more bad trades than good when prospects are involved…but it’s not a given…Seattle got Randy Johnson from Montreal for Mark Langston. And when Seattle traded Johnson to Houston, they got Freddy García and Carlos Guillén, two pretty good players…

[Angels 1961]

3 minutes ago, Dtwncbad said:

You are a genius.  Ohtani is a pending free agent and you think he will become a free agent.

 

So Mr. Ohtani you want to be in playoffs. We are in playoffs every year and will offer you the most money. Where do you think Ohtani will sign? 

[Dtwncbad]

1 minute ago, Angels 1961 said:

So Mr. Ohtani you want to be in playoffs. We are in playoffs every year and will offer you the most money. Where do you think Ohtani will sign? 

He will sign where he wants to be.

That will be somewhere he feels wanted, feels comfortable, and where he believes the team will be competitive.

How you automatically exclude the Angels from being a viable choice is just bizarre.

[BTH]

58 minutes ago, Jeff Fletcher said:

30 percent if they keep him. 
 

3 percent if they trade him. 

Is the potential that the Angels make the playoffs baked into that 30 percent?

Cause the real number I’d be curious about is the percent chance he re-signs if they keep him but don’t make the playoffs this season.

[BTH]

1 hour ago, Stradling said:

This is where I’m at. I also could see a path to winning next year if they trade Ohtani, assuming the budget is the same. 

It’s funny how, at this time last year, the concern with trading Ohtani was finding a pitcher who could replace his production. But now, the bigger concern is likely finding a hitter who can replace his production.

The upcoming free agent market is stacked with pitchers but barren with hitters.

[jsnpritchett]

17 minutes ago, Trendon said:

Is the potential that the Angels make the playoffs baked into that 30 percent?

Cause the real number I’d be curious about is the percent chance he re-signs if they keep him but don’t make the playoffs this season.

[Jeff Fletcher]

1 hour ago, Dtwncbad said:

I would say zero percent if they trade him.

He is a competitive guy in a battle for a postseason spot right now, and trading him tells him the ownership/management BOTH a). punted on third down, and b). didn’t prioritize keeping him.

Who would want to choose to continue that relationship?

It’s pretty close to zero percent.

I basically agree with everything you said but I never say never, so I made it 3 percent. Could have made it 1 percent I guess. 

[Jeff Fletcher]

1 hour ago, Angels 1961 said:

What percentage Ohtani test FA?

99 percent 

Edited July 25, 2023 by Jeff Fletcher

[Angels 1961]

1 hour ago, Dtwncbad said:

He will sign where he wants to be.

That will be somewhere he feels wanted, feels comfortable, and where he believes the team will be competitive.

How you automatically exclude the Angels from being a viable choice is just bizarre.

If he signs with Angels I will ask Chuck to ban me forever. This will make you happy plus I will not have to read your I told you so.

[Jeff Fletcher]

29 minutes ago, Trendon said:

Is the potential that the Angels make the playoffs baked into that 30 percent?

Cause the real number I’d be curious about is the percent chance he re-signs if they keep him but don’t make the playoffs this season.

Yes it is. 
 

By the way, I don’t think it matters so much if the Angels “make the playoffs” as it does how they look over the final 2 months. Because when he’s making a decision for 2024-2033, that really shouldn’t be made based on whether the 23 Angels win 87 or 90 games. 
 

I think if the Angels just play well down the stretch, and young guys like O’Hoppe, Neto, Detmers, Joyce, Bachman, Sandoval are providing hope, Ohtani could very well say the Angels have proven to him they are going in the right direction. Even if all of that adds up to 87 wins and missing the playoffs. 
 

That’s why I’m giving it 30 percent even though they probably only have a 15 percent chance of making the playoffs. 
 

I think Ohtani wants the Angels to give him a reason to stay, because I think he likes everything else. 

[ten ocho recon scout]

1 hour ago, Jeff Fletcher said:

30 percent if they keep him. 
 

3 percent if they trade him. 

I think this is probably accurate, but can you elaborate?

Do you think it hurts the odds because he experiences something better, or feels "disrespected" by being traded?

[Jeff Fletcher]

4 minutes ago, ten ocho recon scout said:

I think this is probably accurate, but can you elaborate?

Do you think it hurts the odds because he experiences something better, or feels "disrespected" by being traded?

Yes

[ten ocho recon scout]

3 minutes ago, Jeff Fletcher said:

I think if the Angels just play well down the stretch, and young guys like O’Hoppe, Neto, Detmers, Joyce, Bachman, Sandoval are providing hope, Ohtani could very well say the Angels have proven to him they are going in the right direction. Even if all of that adds up to 87 wins and missing the playoffs. 

That last part is a great point.

And I've been thinking the former for awhile now. I've been hoping the future core group is one that entices him to stay. An actual realistic assumption that the team is getting better, and that he's developing close friends in that group.

I still keep wondering what could have been if Adell and Marsh worked out. If the team the last 2 years was more or less similar to the current one. 

[Jeff Fletcher]

1 hour ago, DMVol said:

There are more bad trades than good when prospects are involved…but it’s not a given…Seattle got Randy Johnson from Montreal for Mark Langston. And when Seattle traded Johnson to Houston, they got Freddy García and Carlos Guillén, two pretty good players…

It’s worth noting that teams view prospects much differently now than even 10 years ago. 
 

MLB teams don’t want to pay established players because the young guys making the minimum are in many cases just as good. It was one of the big fights during the CBA negotiation. 
 

So teams aren’t going to give up really talented prospects easily.