Shortstop candidates for the Halos

[totdprods]

14 hours ago, Angels 1961 said:

How about Jean Segura

Segura seems a little redundant with Urshela, IMO. If we’re gonna sign another older vet on a one-year, it should be someone who is truly capable at SS. Rengifo and Fletcher are much better suited at 2B.

[Stradling]

3 minutes ago, floplag said:

And?  It doesnt change the point.  If we cant afford them then we cant afford them, its that simple.   We either can, or cant, go beyond the comfortable level.  Who they are doenst matter really does it? 
Youre playing both sides here arguing your own point. 

Ok.  I am not playing both sides of the argument.  I am telling you that if we sign a SS and extend Ohtani that we will be paying 8 guys $175 million and that will cause us to go over the threshold for 4 years when Rendon’s contract is up.  So because of that and arb raises to Ward and Sandoval, we will be at close to $200 million with 14 more roster spots.  If you think they won’t have to go cheap on a position or two then I don’t know what to say.  

[Chuck]

I would still take Elvis Andrus over David Fletcher, leaving Fletch to be the utility guy to spell our infielders off the bench along with Soto.

[Stradling]

1 minute ago, Chuckster70 said:

I would still take Elvis Andrus over David Fletcher, leaving Fletch to be the utility guy to spell our infielders off the bench along with Soto.

Same.  I’d prefer a more exciting option, but if I had to take Fletcher or Andrus, I will take Andrus.  

[floplag]

13 minutes ago, Stradling said:

Ok.  I am not playing both sides of the argument.  I am telling you that if we sign a SS and extend Ohtani that we will be paying 8 guys $175 million and that will cause us to go over the threshold for 4 years when Rendon’s contract is up.  So because of that and arb raises to Ward and Sandoval, we will be at close to $200 million with 14 more roster spots.  If you think they won’t have to go cheap on a position or two then I don’t know what to say.  

No, you dont, as you always come back to this supposed limitation, which as ive said many times i do not believe exists other than what Arte wants to spend, not what he could spend.
The idea that this club CANT do more, is simply not logical based on what we know they have tried to do in other investments.
So yeah, they could do both, if they chose to, if you dont see that then as you say i dont know what to tell you either.
We will not agree on this, we never have.   

[Dtwncbad]

15 minutes ago, Chuckster70 said:

I would still take Elvis Andrus over David Fletcher, leaving Fletch to be the utility guy to spell our infielders off the bench along with Soto.

100%.  Andrus is a respectable everyday starter at SS.  He is no MOTO but let’s apply the same measurement that everyone applies to Fletcher, where everyone says the lineup is more than acceptable overall with Fletcher batting 9th.

Who would you rather have batting 9th every game, Fletcher or Andrus?

Easy answer.

[BTH]

40 minutes ago, Chuckster70 said:

I would still take Elvis Andrus over David Fletcher, leaving Fletch to be the utility guy to spell our infielders off the bench along with Soto.

Before I’d sign Andrus, I’d have to talk with him and ask him what led to his best offensive season in 5 years?

If the answer includes tangible changes that he made, whether it was a new diet, workout program, approach, swing mechanics, etc. then I’d be much more willing to sign him.

If he doesn’t have an answer, I wouldn’t sign him.

[Stradling]

35 minutes ago, floplag said:

No, you dont, as you always come back to this supposed limitation, which as ive said many times i do not believe exists other than what Arte wants to spend, not what he could spend.
The idea that this club CANT do more, is simply not logical based on what we know they have tried to do in other investments.
So yeah, they could do both, if they chose to, if you dont see that then as you say i dont know what to tell you either.
We will not agree on this, we never have.   

Ok live in a world with zero limitations. I’ll live in reality. You are right we won’t agree.  I’m all for spending big but I also understand what it will mean down the road. 

[Dtwncbad]

9 minutes ago, Stradling said:

Ok live in a world with zero limitations. I’ll live in reality. You are right we won’t agree.  I’m all for spending big but I also understand what it will mean down the road. 

You guys are going back and forth but the answer will come when the new ownership and their capabilities/intentions are revealed.

This is like arguing if the next coin flip will be head or tails.  The answer will be revealed when it’s flipped.

I am dying to know who the next owner will be!!!!!!!!!

[floplag]

38 minutes ago, Stradling said:

Ok live in a world with zero limitations. I’ll live in reality. You are right we won’t agree.  I’m all for spending big but I also understand what it will mean down the road. 

I never said zero limitation, why does the hyperbole always come into play?  I said more than we are, perhaps into the lux tax range.. yes for as much as the 4 years.   I do not think thats something the organization and ownership cannot afford.
They created this problem and its their only out now.  If they arent willing then they should be trading people to build the future.
For me its that simple, you cant have it both ways.
 

[Hubs]

In regards to @Stradling and @floplag's discussion above... 

There are two other teams with smaller markets who have this same scenario ($175 for 8 guys) and the Mets and Dodgers have in recent seasons done this as well.

Phillies have 8 guys making over $16M for 2023, with Aaron Nola at $16 and the only 2023-2024 FA. Taijuan Walker is at $18,  Schwarber and Castellanos are at $20 each, Realmuto is at 23.875, Wheeler is at $24.5 and Turner is at $27.5 with Harper at $27.5 too.

$177.375 for 8 guys.

Padres have a little more flexibility as they only have 6 guys making more than $16, Because Tatis is not making any serious money until $2025, it was $341 over 14 covering his arbitration years, so he's only paid $7.7 M in 2023. They also have some free agents coming up in 2023-2024.

Blake Snell is at $16.6, Yu Darvish is at $19, Musgrove is at $20, Juan Soto is at $23.5, Bogaerts is at $25.5 and Machado is at $30. They have Hader at $12.75 and three guys making $10M.

That's 177.3 for 10 guys... but still

In the scenario above, Angels will have presumably Ohtani at $45? Trout at $35.5, Rendon at $35, a SS in the $22-$32 range, then Anderson at $13, which is 5 guys making around $155.5. They have only Stassi, Estevez and Fletcher under contract for the 2024 season, which would be 8 contracts at $175 which is what Stradling said. 

I'd imagine you add the arbitration estimates for as many as 11 guys (6 A2 and up to 5 A1, my estimates put that at like 40-45M if players do well in 2023.... which they want) , and adding no more significant free agents, letting Renfroe, Urshela, Loup and Tepera walk, and you'd still be topping $220M in 2024...before adding another guy. I'd expect a few non-tenders but you're still looking at say 17 guys (one I don't think will reach the arbitration threshold as projected and one will be gone. So you'd have 9 spots to fill for around $10M.... which is fine if it's club guys, but they would likely be over in 2024 as well.

Now in 2025, Estevez, Fletcher, Stassi all come off, and so you'd be able to add a few names...but the arb class will get more expensive. 

Stradling is right, they'd likely commit to paying the tax minimum through 2025, and likely through 2026, but might be able to squeeze under in 26.

But the only positions that wouldn't be basically set for 3-4 years is one of the corner OF spots, and 1st base if Walsh doesn't come back to form. The rotation would have 5 guys locked in. 

Of course, trading some salary can help, but it is doable, they'd just be paying a tax for the rest of the Rendon contract.

If they had a huge group of depth position wise in AAA and AA it would be okay to do this. Neto and O'Hoppe are the only guys I see likely being starters, but it would all be young guys for depth in the lineup and the pen.

 

 

 

 

[floplag]

40 minutes ago, Hubs said:

In regards to @Stradling and @floplag's discussion above... 

There are two other teams with smaller markets who have this same scenario ($175 for 8 guys) and the Mets and Dodgers have in recent seasons done this as well.

Phillies have 8 guys making over $16M for 2023, with Aaron Nola at $16 and the only 2023-2024 FA. Taijuan Walker is at $18,  Schwarber and Castellanos are at $20 each, Realmuto is at 23.875, Wheeler is at $24.5 and Turner is at $27.5 with Harper at $27.5 too.

$177.375 for 8 guys.

Padres have a little more flexibility as they only have 6 guys making more than $16, Because Tatis is not making any serious money until $2025, it was $341 over 14 covering his arbitration years, so he's only paid $7.7 M in 2023. They also have some free agents coming up in 2023-2024.

Blake Snell is at $16.6, Yu Darvish is at $19, Musgrove is at $20, Juan Soto is at $23.5, Bogaerts is at $25.5 and Machado is at $30. They have Hader at $12.75 and three guys making $10M.

That's 177.3 for 10 guys... but still

In the scenario above, Angels will have presumably Ohtani at $45? Trout at $35.5, Rendon at $35, a SS in the $22-$32 range, then Anderson at $13, which is 5 guys making around $155.5. They have only Stassi, Estevez and Fletcher under contract for the 2024 season, which would be 8 contracts at $175 which is what Stradling said. 

I'd imagine you add the arbitration estimates for as many as 11 guys (6 A2 and up to 5 A1, my estimates put that at like 40-45M if players do well in 2023.... which they want) , and adding no more significant free agents, letting Renfroe, Urshela, Loup and Tepera walk, and you'd still be topping $220M in 2024...before adding another guy. I'd expect a few non-tenders but you're still looking at say 17 guys (one I don't think will reach the arbitration threshold as projected and one will be gone. So you'd have 9 spots to fill for around $10M.... which is fine if it's club guys, but they would likely be over in 2024 as well.

Now in 2025, Estevez, Fletcher, Stassi all come off, and so you'd be able to add a few names...but the arb class will get more expensive. 

Stradling is right, they'd likely commit to paying the tax minimum through 2025, and likely through 2026, but might be able to squeeze under in 26.

But the only positions that wouldn't be basically set for 3-4 years is one of the corner OF spots, and 1st base if Walsh doesn't come back to form. The rotation would have 5 guys locked in. 

Of course, trading some salary can help, but it is doable, they'd just be paying a tax for the rest of the Rendon contract.

If they had a huge group of depth position wise in AAA and AA it would be okay to do this. Neto and O'Hoppe are the only guys I see likely being starters, but it would all be young guys for depth in the lineup and the pen.

 

 

 

 

Excellent breakdown, and yes thats exactly what you commit to, and it lease very few holes over that time.
Worst case, you need another corner OF or 1B, those generally arent hard spots to fill. 
The reality is that this is the path ownership put us on, if someone has another option for how to make this team relevant this year, im all ears. 

[ettin]

I know that people are indicating the Padres, after signing Bogaerts, are going to slide Ha-Seong Kim over to 2B, but he really is a SS by trade and skills, so I am wondering if the Angels will try to acquire him and supply the Padres with a 2B?

[totdprods]

Does Cavan Biggio play SS at all?

[Angels 1961]

21 minutes ago, ettin said:

I know that people are indicating the Padres, after signing Bogaerts, are going to slide Ha-Seong Kim over to 2B, but he really is a SS by trade and skills, so I am wondering if the Angels will try to acquire him and supply the Padres with a 2B?

Or a bullpen piece to cut some payroll. If SD wantz to do that.

[Stradling]

1 hour ago, floplag said:

I never said zero limitation, why does the hyperbole always come into play?  I said more than we are, perhaps into the lux tax range.. yes for as much as the 4 years.   I do not think thats something the organization and ownership cannot afford.
They created this problem and its their only out now.  If they arent willing then they should be trading people to build the future.
For me it’sthat simple, you cant have it both ways.
 

Correct all owners can go over. The reality is even the most rich teams go over then reset, then go over. By the 4th year of going over you are paying 50 cents for every dollar going over. The bigger part of this still comes down to a new owner coming in and being tied to an expensive roster, paying the tax, with very little input on who is on the roster without paying a tax for every dollar they spend. 

[ten ocho recon scout]

I've been one of the people yelling to spend, but at this point its down to Correa, and he's likely getting at least 3. It is what it is, and I'd be happy to add him, but that'd a lot of money for him.

I'm with Strad and a lot of others here that you need to look long term before you commit so much money. And recognize it will hurt you down the road. (Angel fans should be well aware of that).

That being said, it's at a point now where you have to recognize baseball salaries are only getting bigger and bigger. You either accept that and adapt, or you consign yourself to a shit product. 

And trade Ohtani now.

I've been one of the ones preaching to be smart with money here for years, and acknowledging we had a huge budget already. And Moreno couldn't simply "spend" to fix it 

The problem is, the "farm plan" hasn't worked. We hope the young pitching flourishes, and for now it looks promising. But a big part of all of this was Marsh and Adell. One is gone, the other likely is back in the minors this year.

The window of the next crop of promising position players is likely when Trout is only older, and Ohtani is possibly gone.

This is stupid.

Again.... I've wanted Correa all along this year, but if we don't get him (we wont) I won't cry, knowing how much he'll get. He doesn't strike me as that kind of player to begin with (huge money).

That said, they have to spend. Period. Yes, we've spent like crazy the past decade. But as funny as it sounds we've also been very cheap. Super contracts to Pujols and Trout, yes. Then saved money on the back end with has been.

And most importantly, the team hasn't gotten anywhere near the value for its money with most of the contracts. Pujols, Hamilton, Upton, Rendon, etc etc etc.

That said, the team has to own it. You spent poorly. You "still have a job to do". Fix the problem. If that's spending more, do it.

If budget was a concern, they should have traded Trout years ago and never signed Rendon.

Not to mention the rumors last year that we offered Scherzer 100.

It's tricky because we have no idea what new ownership will be. But whoever it is needs to look at the rest of baseball, see that we don't have the brains to match some other orgs in talent development, at least any time soon. 

The other option is spending with the big dogs. You can't simply look at the competition and go "wow! That's a lot of money. Well, we can't match that, let's just keep playing games just for the sake of playing them." 

The stadium is already empty as it is. Another season like the last 4, with Ohtani out the door is going to be a nail in the coffin. 

Either spend now, or be honest, and trade Ohtani. 

[Revad]

I’d be surprised to see them go over the tax by much, and only for the right player (sound familiar?).  Even at current levels there isn’t much margin there if you put aside some funds for the trade deadline.  Say 5-10M if you’re wanting to stay below the tax.

[ettin]

1 hour ago, Angels 1961 said:

Or a bullpen piece to cut some payroll. If SD Wantz to do that.

If intentional, bravo, if unintentional, still nicely done, lol!

[floplag]

1 hour ago, Stradling said:

Correct all owners can go over. The reality is even the most rich teams go over then reset, then go over. By the 4th year of going over you are paying 50 cents for every dollar going over. The bigger part of this still comes down to a new owner coming in and being tied to an expensive roster, paying the tax, with very little input on who is on the roster without paying a tax for every dollar they spend. 

Correct, but as said its our only path the relevancy right now, we have no other options based on past actions. 
Also, you really think these prospective buyers arent in the loop?  Wouldnt you want to be?  There is no way Arte is doing this of his own accord if it would damage the sale or his profits.  I would be shocked if they were not, in fact i think they are the likely reason for the current talking points.
Im certain they want to keep Ohtani and are likely approving any spending we make from this point on. 

[Angels 1961]

4 minutes ago, floplag said:

Correct, but as said its our only path the relevancy right now, we have no other options based on past actions. 
Also, you really think these prospective buyers arent in the loop?  Wouldnt you want to be?  There is no way Arte is doing this of his own accord if it would damage the sale or his profits.  I would be shocked if they were not, in fact i think they are the likely reason for the current talking points.
Im certain they want to keep Ohtani and are likely approving any spending we make from this point on. 

I hope you are right, only 3 things to do. SS SP and BP

[Revad]

1 minute ago, Angels 1961 said:

I hope you are right, only 3 things to do. SS SP and BP

And OF

[greginpsca]

2 hours ago, ettin said:

I know that people are indicating the Padres, after signing Bogaerts, are going to slide Ha-Seong Kim over to 2B, but he really is a SS by trade and skills, so I am wondering if the Angels will try to acquire him and supply the Padres with a 2B?

He is on their depth chart for both positions. They have Croneworth at 2b. So Kim will probably be their utility guy.

[Hubs]

1 hour ago, totdprods said:

Does Cavan Biggio play SS at all?

I'd imagine he could. He played 2nd at Notre Dame though. He's not known a great defender though so on our team, I'd still think Rengifo/Fletcher would man SS if they acquired him and he'd play 2nd.

[Hubs]

1 minute ago, greginpsca said:

He is on their depth chart for both positions. They have Croneworth at 2b. So Kim will probably be their utility guy.

Kim will play 2nd, Croneworth 1st, and Tatis in the OF. That's what I've heard.