The Problem and Paradox of Depth vs. Playing Young Guys

[Angelsjunky]

With this year's playoff chances dwindling to near zero, clearly the focus should be on auditioning any and all players who could have a role in next year's team. That means playing Adell, Rengifo, Stefanic, etc. We can hope that Rengifo continues to establish himself as an every-day player, Adell can take a step forward, and Stefanic's can play decent enough defense at 2B to get his .290+ BA in the lineup.

So we can imagine next year that the Angels give the four-man outfield another try, with Trout, Ward, Adell, and Marsh; we can also imagine that Rengifo and Stefanic are the starting middle infield duo, with Fletcher slotting in as the all-purpose utility player.

But even if all of these guys perform well enough to hold their jobs, we're still faced with the same problem as we've had this year: A lack of depth beyond the regular players.

As I and others have pointed out, a lot of the lineup woes can best be illustrated by the fact that the Angels have given almost 2,000 PA to player with below average bats (100 wRC+). If we consider 80 wRC+ to be vaguely adequate--meaning, if you have a guy with stellar defense, you can rationalize an 80 or higher wRC+--over 1200 PA are from guys with below 80 wRC+ bats.

Couple that with Trout's erratic play, Ward's drop-off, Walsh's regression, and Rendon's injury, and you have a very disappointing offense for the last couple months.

So the problem is that A) The Angels entered the year with no decent hitting options in the middle infield, banking on the hope that Fletcher would bounce back (he got hurt), and some combination of Duffy, Wade, Mayfield, Rengifo, and Velazquez would be good enough--none were, until Rengifo's recent play; and B) Injured players like Rendon and Ward were replaced by scrubs, and might as well throw in C) Top prospects Brandon Marsh and Jo Adell have disappointed.

All of these factors have led to a lineup that fell from being one of the top offenses in baseball for the first quarter of the year, to being one of the worst for the second quarter, now being 22nd in the majors in WAR, 21st in wRC+, and 25th in runs scored. It is a catastrophic collapse.

Or to put that more starkly, since the first game of their 14-game losing streak on May 25, the Angels have been 29th in the majors with a 78 wrC+ and 149 runs scored behind only the Athletics, scoring just 3.2 runs per game while going 12-34. This was after being 4th in the majors with 212 runs scored through May 24, or 4.5 runs scored per game (and really, the Angels offense had already started dropping off before then).

The Angels have other problems: Most notably a shoddy bullpen that has blown countless leads, and a weak back-end of the rotation. But let's leave that to another thread.

So here's the paradox: Even if Rengifo and Stefanic are good enough to start, the Angels are still potentially--and really, probably--faced with the same problem next year: Weak depth behind the regulars, some of whom are prone to injury and/or maybe not as good as hoped (Ward, Walsh, Stassi), or still developing (Adell, Marsh).

So actually, the Angels are potentially facing two problems next year, as far as the lineup concerned:

• Too many starters at or around average offensive production (Walsh, Stassi, Marsh, Adell, Rengifo, Stefanic), with only Trout, Ohtani, Ward, and maybe Rendon likely to produce significantly above average performance.
• Beyond the regulars, there is...no one. I mean, there are human beings, but no one in the high minors (AA, AAA) that can be expected to be average major league regulars next year. Jordyn Adams and Jeremiah Jackson have that potential, but they've got more holes in their hitting profiles than Adell, so if they get to average or better it will likely take a few years, and both might end up as part-time players in the majors. I mean, maybe Trey Cabbage, Zach Humphreys, David MacKinnon or BJ Boyd prove to be useful, but I wouldn't start the year with them as the back-up plans. 

So we're not only left with a starting lineup of which the majority are average at best--and maybe worse than that--but there's a steep drop-off with barely even adequate replacement players in the high minors.

Sure, maybe Adell and/or Marsh break through, maybe Stefanic hits .315, maybe Rendon is healthy, maybe Rengifo keeps getting better, maybe Walsh and Stassi bounce back, maybe...

So what are possible solutions to this issue? Does Minasian go all in on free agent starters, and leave the young guys to fulfill the depth? Does he stockpile veteran platoon and bench types? Does he trade Syndergaard and others for lower-ceiling, but major league ready prospects? What do you think he should do?

[Stradling]

On 7/14/2022 at 7:52 AM, Stradling said:

I’m 100% on board with giving Adell RF for the rest of the year.  If that means Ward is 4th OF/1B so be it. If it means Marsh goes to AAA and gets his bat right, that’s fine. Hell if it means trading Ward or Walsh ok.  The Angels have three guys that consistently hit the ball hard, Trout, Ohtani and Adell. 
If Stefanic continues to get on base after his babip normalizes and Rengifo improves to being a major league regular that puts Fletcher in his utility/super sub role which has ACTUAL value compared to being a good glove shitty bat. 
All that being said if they give them the rest of the year and they perform well enough to secure those roles going into next year, we could be in the exact same spot next year.  Instead of failing with cheap additions like Wade, Velazquez, Duffy, Legares, we’d fail with cheap in house options of Marsh, Adell, Rengifo, Stefanic. However we’d be in even a worse spot, because we wouldn’t have our cheap in house options to fall back on.  The team will need to bring in a very good middle infielder with a resume of success or a very good outfielder with a resume of success. 

 

[Angelsjunky]

20 minutes ago, Stradling said:

 

Yes, well said. Great minds, and all.

[floplag]

At what point, if any, does this club actually play to win versus the inevitable next season roster determination?

[Angelsjunky]

34 minutes ago, floplag said:

At what point, if any, does this club actually play to win versus the inevitable next season roster determination?

Well, the obvious answer is: When they're good enough to have a chance of a playoff berth, which has been rare in recent years. At least this year it is clear: they're not contenders, so we don't have to go through the usual "will they, won't they" of their typical .500ish records in July.

And of course the reasons they haven't been in a place to "play to win" have been discussed endlessly, and mostly come down to poor executive choices compounded over the years, what we could call the Curse of Vernon Wells. From that point on-- January of 2011--this team has been very poorly run, with far more bad decisions than good ones. 

But more importantly, the bad decisions are often in reaction to previous bad decisions not working out as hoped.

So there's a layer of frustration beyond the simple level of bad results on the field: the fact that the front office gives very little reason for confidence in future decision making. We now have two offseasons by Perry Minasian, neither of which moved the needle in a positive direction or yielded promising returns. Maybe he deserves (and will get) a third and fourth try, if only because he's signed through 2024, but he's definitely on watch.

Edited July 15, 2022 by Angelsjunky

[Angels 1961]

I play Thor look alike at 3B rest of season.

[Jay]

Marsh is probably better defensively but it's time to give Adell a chance.

 

 

[Angelsjunky]

58 minutes ago, Jay said:

Marsh is probably better defensively but it's time to give Adell a chance.

 

 

[ThisismineScios]

I feel the time for winning on the margins is over. I know it rarely works out to pay big for a FA, but to build depth and raise the floor I think you do something that really good teams do—fill every position possible with excellence and use the rest for depth. Think on the Astros. They have guys filling OF and IF spots that may seem insignificant or not as good. But consider that these guys really are good but the positions are blocked by better guys. This is how we become successful—go get a shortstop and let your Rengifos and Stefanics become valuable depth. I’m sorry but we cannot go into next season content that Rengifo can hit .275 with a little pop or that Stefanic can hit .300 with a .300 Slg%. Those are depth pieces on successful teams. They really need to stop trying to act like a championship caliber club that builds around the margins and recognize they are not among the AL’s elite.

They need to make the SS position a strength, put Fletcher at 2B where he belongs, and give Adell and Marsh the chance to prove themselves. If one of them can show the next 70 games that they want it, you have your LF. If both do? Pick one trade one. If neither do? Keep one as your 4th and let the other keep working, and go get a quality OF. The time for assessment and tinkering is done. Perry is out after next year if this year happens again. I think it’s time to go for it. His success as a GM just so happens to line up with Trout’s pinnacle/beginning of his decline, and Ohtani’s Free Agency. I seriously doubt we see small moves this winter. I think they will look to fill the lineup not only with depth, but with good players by paying and trading. Perry is definitely kicking himself or mad at Arte for not pushing harder for a legitimate SS this offseason. I don’t know if Perry or Arte can afford to let something like this happen again. 

[AngelsLakersFan]

Name one position player on this roster other than Trout, Ohtani and Rendon that you couldn’t picture being out of baseball, in the minor leagues, or DFA’d by the end of the 2023 season?

[Blarg]

16 minutes ago, AngelsLakersFan said:

Name one position player on this roster other than Trout, Ohtani and Rendon that you couldn’t picture being out of baseball, in the minor leagues, or DFA’d by the end of the 2023 season?

Stefanic, Rengifo, Adell, Marsh and Ward. Really, I think these guys are going to get their time in this year and work out their weaknesses at the MLB level and will produce next season.

I see Ward as a backup 4th outfielder because of his lack of range but creating stability in that role.

Stefanic can be the 3rd base and infield backup, also creating stability in the infield depth chart and keep Rendon rested. 

What is most disappointing is they have yet to cut Suzuki and put Thaiss permanently in the backup catcher role. There is no future contract for Suzuki and he is just stealing innings from a player that needs the experience. 

This season, from here ony out, should be youth movement and the growing pains of it. But Dammit get through that one year cycle and quit trying to be a team you are not. 

Who knows, the kids may just win a few games when they realize their next inning won't be in Salt Lake. 

[tdawg87]

6 minutes ago, Blarg said:

Stefanic, Rengifo, Adell, Marsh and Ward. Really, I think these guys are going to get their time in this year and work out their weaknesses at the MLB level and will produce next season.

I see Ward as a backup 4th outfielder because of his lack of range but creating stability in that role.

Stefanic can be the 3rd base and infield backup, also creating stability in the infield depth chart and keep Rendon rested. 

What is most disappointing is they have yet to cut Suzuki and put Thaiss permanently in the backup catcher role. There is no future contract for Suzuki and he is just stealing innings from a player that needs the experience. 

This season, from here ony out, should be youth movement and the growing pains of it. But Dammit get through that one year cycle and quit trying to be a team you are not. 

Who knows, the kids may just win a few games when they realize their next inning won't be in Salt Lake. 

We don't do "growing pains". Only "aging pains".

[AngelsLakersFan]

1 hour ago, Blarg said:

Stefanic, Rengifo, Adell, Marsh and Ward. 

I hope so, but I would not be surprised to see any of those guys back in the minor leagues in a year. Ward is the one guy I think is probably shown too much to bet against.

[Blarg]

2 hours ago, tdawg87 said:

We don't do "growing pains". Only "aging pains".

[UndertheHalo]

I agree with AJ.  But more then the content of the thread I like the title of the thread.  Thank you sir. 

[Tank]

10 hours ago, floplag said:

At what point, if any, does this club actually play to win versus the inevitable next season roster determination?

The year after most of us die.

[floplag]

On 7/15/2022 at 11:43 AM, Angelsjunky said:

Well, the obvious answer is: When they're good enough to have a chance of a playoff berth, which has been rare in recent years. At least this year it is clear: they're not contenders, so we don't have to go through the usual "will they, won't they" of their typical .500ish records in July.

And of course the reasons they haven't been in a place to "play to win" have been discussed endlessly, and mostly come down to poor executive choices compounded over the years, what we could call the Curse of Vernon Wells. From that point on-- January of 2011--this team has been very poorly run, with far more bad decisions than good ones. 

But more importantly, the bad decisions are often in reaction to previous bad decisions not working out as hoped.

So there's a layer of frustration beyond the simple level of bad results on the field: the fact that the front office gives very little reason for confidence in future decision making. We now have two offseasons by Perry Minasian, neither of which moved the needle in a positive direction or yielded promising returns. Maybe he deserves (and will get) a third and fourth try, if only because he's signed through 2024, but he's definitely on watch.

No im sorry, thats self inflicted in my opinion.
They could have been good enough at almost any point in recent years had ownership valued more than revenue.
In the last 5 years weve seen too many teams actually make the playoffs that we could have been better than had ownership fuflilled its promoses of the past.
Willing to over spend for the right guy, willing to do whatever it takes... in the end, all hes done is invent is 2 high priced guys that generated revenue and done absolutely nothing to help around them even with ample opportunities.
The farm has gone backwars with eqaul enthusiasm. 
We have only one out, the same one weve hade for years, and its the one thing ownership refuses to do.
Mets ownership came into an eqaully dire situation, knew what it would take, and got it done, with one of our former GMs Arte fired i might add. 
This was always what it was going to take, to bust the budget for a few years to buy time... Arte has chosen not to do so, he put that revenue and the budget over winning, all i a time when he was trying to buy billions in land so forgive me if i think 50 millions is pennings to the man in the grand scheme. 
 

[Angelsjunky]

52 minutes ago, floplag said:

No im sorry, thats self inflicted in my opinion.
They could have been good enough at almost any point in recent years had ownership valued more than revenue.
In the last 5 years weve seen too many teams actually make the playoffs that we could have been better than had ownership fuflilled its promoses of the past.
Willing to over spend for the right guy, willing to do whatever it takes... in the end, all hes done is invent is 2 high priced guys that generated revenue and done absolutely nothing to help around them even with ample opportunities.
The farm has gone backwars with eqaul enthusiasm. 
We have only one out, the same one weve hade for years, and its the one thing ownership refuses to do.
Mets ownership came into an eqaully dire situation, knew what it would take, and got it done, with one of our former GMs Arte fired i might add. 
This was always what it was going to take, to bust the budget for a few years to buy time... Arte has chosen not to do so, he put that revenue and the budget over winning, all i a time when he was trying to buy billions in land so forgive me if i think 50 millions is pennings to the man in the grand scheme. 
 

Not sure what your point is, except "throw money at the problem" and "If they're not spending as much as the Yankees, they're not trying!"

The Angels are consistently in the top ten of payroll. Arte has laid out the cash for big free agent signings, multiple times. But every time, the team made bad choices. 

This is not to say I think you're wrong that they need to go over budget for a year or three to get the team back to contention. Maybe that will happen this offseason - say, going after Trea Turner or Xander Bogaerts. But to say they haven't spent when they're always in the top ten and have a long list of bad free agents and trade acquisitions just seems kind of silly.

Also, the farm hasn't gone backwards. It is better now than it was five years ago.

[floplag]

On 7/17/2022 at 9:00 AM, Angelsjunky said:

Not sure what your point is, except "throw money at the problem" and "If they're not spending as much as the Yankees, they're not trying!"

The Angels are consistently in the top ten of payroll. Arte has laid out the cash for big free agent signings, multiple times. But every time, the team made bad choices. 

This is not to say I think you're wrong that they need to go over budget for a year or three to get the team back to contention. Maybe that will happen this offseason - say, going after Trea Turner or Xander Bogaerts. But to say they haven't spent when they're always in the top ten and have a long list of bad free agents and trade acquisitions just seems kind of silly.

Also, the farm hasn't gone backwards. It is better now than it was five years ago.

That is the path the chose though... there is no other solution to win right now.  You dont develop a farm over night, heck he havent over 5-10 years now. 
It isnt that he hasnt spent, ive never said that, but what he hasnt done is spend to the level that will matter.  He spent on guaranteed return on investment in Trout and Ohtan i, and when he had the balls to face the media he always siad he would spend on the right guys... well apprently that came with a side note, those that would generater revenue, not wins. 
That payroll is half on three guys, one of which isnt even playing for us anymore.
Top 10 payroll isnt getting it done unless you hit lightning in a bottle on the kids, and were not.  Not drafting mid pack every year or worse.  And im sorry but the farm ranking disagree with your statement, were not in the bottom third, were in the bottom 3 per some.  The far mis not better.  Yes its graduated a lot but so had everyone elses that moved ahead of us. 
The only short tertm fix is to do exactly as you say, throw more at it, do what the Mets have done for example and eat the tax a couple years if you have to.
Otherwise its 500 ball and Arte cashing checks.   
Either way it seems that time has passed, it was never going to happen, this is simply who/what we are.  Its no mytsery why Arte hasbent spoken to the media in the last few years, this was his plan, it had nothing to do with winning. 

[eligrba]

Wouldn't be a problem if the Angels could draft and develop major league replacement level players-not talking about stars, just replacement level players.  I know the annual farm system ratings are biased and do not completely describe the picture, but have their assessments been that far off for the Angels?