Angels sign Ryan Tepera (2 years, $14 million), DFA Kyle Tyler (claimed by BOS)

[AngelsLakersFan]

1 minute ago, Lou said:

He is.

I agree. I think him maintaining that level of performance is considerably high risk, certainly not the low risk blarg described.

[UndertheHalo]

2 minutes ago, AngelsLakersFan said:

I agree. I think him maintaining that level of performance is considerably high risk, certainly not the low risk blarg described.

He’s a massive risk/reward player.  That’s always been the deal with him.  I think you and Blarg are both right.  You being right that should he not be able to pitch.  Giving him a deal that reflects the high end of what can do could be a pretty big problem.  Blarg being right that even if that happens he’s still a very good bat.  
 

for me, it’s worth the risk.  

[AngelsLakersFan]

7 minutes ago, UndertheHalo said:

He’s a massive risk/reward player.  That’s always been the deal with him.  I think you and Blarg are both right.  You being right that should he not be able to pitch.  Giving him a deal that reflects the high end of what can do could be a pretty big problem.  Blarg being right that even if that happens he’s still a very good bat.  
 

for me, it’s worth the risk.  

He’s averaged about 3.25 war per year in his career thus far. I think if they pay him as a 3 war player it’ll be a great deal, but if they pay him like the 8 war guy he was last year they are taking on huge risk.

[UndertheHalo]

13 minutes ago, AngelsLakersFan said:

He’s averaged about 3.25 war per year in his career thus far. I think if they pay him as a 3 war player it’ll be a great deal, but if they pay him like the 8 war guy he was last year they are taking on huge risk.

Yep.  It is what it is. 

[Docwaukee]

57 minutes ago, tdawg87 said:

Seems like he's been pretty consistent outside of 2019. 

 

56 minutes ago, totdprods said:

Tepera? Aside from a poor 2019, he’s been consistently solid, if not a bit above-average, and occasionally better than that.

Much like with Loup and Bradley, had the Angels just signed one of these guys and called it, I’d be a little more wary. But two of them? Three of them? They should be able to work out a pretty strong back-end even if one or two of them step back or get hurt.

am I missing something?  

He's actually been consistent his whole career but last year.  Where his FIP dropped relative to his career numbers which still sits at 3.99.  He does seem to consistently outperform his peripherals.  So fingers crossed.  

At least Perry didn't wait till the day before the regular season starts to get some pen help.  

And I really like our pen this year.  Even if one of those guys fail, it seems we've got the depth to cover it.   I hope Joe uses it well.  

[AngelsLakersFan]

44 minutes ago, Dochalo said:

Even if one of those guys fail, it seems we've got the depth to cover it.   I hope Joe uses it well.  

[Jeff Fletcher]

1 hour ago, Blarg said:

The Angels wouldn't be re-signing they would be offering an extension. I cannot see a downside in that if he ever gets to the point he can't pitch he can always be full time DH or even play the field. It is probably the safest player investment in baseball. 

Except he’s not going to want to be paid like a guy who can hit OR pitch. He’s going to want to be paid like a guy who can hit AND pitch. 

[Blarg]

6 minutes ago, Jeff Fletcher said:

Except he’s not going to want to be paid like a guy who can hit OR pitch. He’s going to want to be paid like a guy who can hit AND pitch. 

And that is what he can do. So you pay him for that, enjoy that production for as long as it lasts and then, like all free agents they are really only worth half that from ink dry to contract end.

The difference is Ohtani offers a backup skill set to offset the loss of any one skill over the later half of his contract.

Cole isn't providing that in the end years of his contract and I doubt Ohtani is getting that money or length of contract. So he is the best overall value for a premiere player salary. 

 

[totdprods]

1 hour ago, Dochalo said:

am I missing something?  

He's actually been consistent his whole career but last year.  Where his FIP dropped relative to his career numbers which still sits at 3.99.  He does seem to consistently outperform his peripherals.  So fingers crossed.  

At least Perry didn't wait till the day before the regular season starts to get some pen help.  

And I really like our pen this year.  Even if one of those guys fail, it seems we've got the depth to cover it.   I hope Joe uses it well.  

I am still not seeing what you’re getting at. He strikes me as a more consistent version of say, someone like Mike Mayers. He isn’t an elite set-up man or anything, but he’s been a pretty consistent in the first chunk of his career. The way you worded it makes it sound like last year’s over-performance was an aberration whereas it could’ve been a step forward just as easily. If I recall, he’s upped usage of a cutter in recent years (like Mayers) and had some elite swing and miss success with it. His 2020 was a step in the right direction of improving as well. So that’s two years of a marked improvement over his solid stretch 2016-2018.

He was really only bad in 2019, and that’s an injury-shortened season where he logged only 21 innings, and his debut season, and even then, he outperformed his peripherals and wasn’t really horrible either year.

He seems like a fairly safe 60 IP, 3 ERA guy at best, or a 3.75 ERA Mayers type if he steps backs. Not worth $7m, but like I said, not a bad at all considering the other guys added. 

If we were talking Iglesias and Tepera I would absolutely share more of your concern.

[totdprods]

It looks like it’s Tepera’s slider that’s emerged as his main weapon last couple years. 

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/white-sox-acquire-ryan-tepera-in-crosstown-trade/

If Iglesias and Loup are even just close to as solid as they were last year, Tepera and Bradley just playing to a peak of solid 7th inning 3.25-3.50 ERA type MRPs would be a huge, huge add, and I think that’s reasonable to hope for. 

Tepera also seems like the kind of guy the Astros would’ve signed and turned into an elite closer.

Edited March 18, 2022 by totdprods

[Blarg]

1 hour ago, AngelsLakersFan said:

He’s averaged about 3.25 war per year in his career thus far. I think if they pay him as a 3 war player it’ll be a great deal, but if they pay him like the 8 war guy he was last year they are taking on huge risk.

Funny, Trout over the last 3 years has been worth about 3.5 war per season. You see how this works? 

 

[Tank]

2 hours ago, UndertheHalo said:

Story is obviously a huge improvement over what we have.  I don’t know how I feel about giving him a 4 or 5 year deal. 

i'd offer 5 years max. more than that is too long.

[AngelsLakersFan]

14 minutes ago, Blarg said:

Funny, Trout over the last 3 years has been worth about 3.5 war per season. You see how this works? 

 

Doesn't that prove my point about risk?

[UndertheHalo]

1 minute ago, AngelsLakersFan said:

Doesn't that prove my point about risk?

I don’t think you’re saying that the Angels would be better off without the dang Millville Meteor. 

[Docwaukee]

31 minutes ago, totdprods said:

I am still not seeing what you’re getting at. He strikes me as a more consistent version of say, someone like Mike Mayers. He isn’t an elite set-up man or anything, but he’s been a pretty consistent in the first chunk of his career. The way you worded it makes it sound like last year’s over-performance was an aberration whereas it could’ve been a step forward just as easily. If I recall, he’s upped usage of a cutter in recent years (like Mayers) and had some elite swing and miss success with it. His 2020 was a step in the right direction of improving as well. So that’s two years of a marked improvement over his solid stretch 2016-2018.

He was really only bad in 2019, and that’s an injury-shortened season where he logged only 21 innings, and his debut season, and even then, he outperformed his peripherals and wasn’t really horrible either year.

He seems like a fairly safe 60 IP, 3 ERA guy at best, or a 3.75 ERA Mayers type if he steps backs. Not worth $7m, but like I said, not a bad at all considering the other guys added. 

If we were talking Iglesias and Tepera I would absolutely share more of your concern.

I'm kinda getting at that he's hasn't been all that good outside of last year.  And he's gonna be 35 in november.  

FIP by year
5.77 age 27
3.69 age 28
3.75 age 29
4.17 age 30
6.03 age 31
3.34 age 32
2.73 age 33

you pick the outliers or tell me I'm crazy.  Ok, so maybe they think he's turned a corner with his slider or whatever.  They would certainly know and I wouldn't.  To me, he's a mediocre reliever they paid 7m for his age 34 and 35 season.  And to this point he's basically cam bedrosian except older.  

And again, maybe they're confident he figured something out.  They must be.  But I wouldn't liked to see them spend that 7m a little differently.  Like on an actual SS.  Or another starter.  

[Lou]

8 minutes ago, Dochalo said:

you pick the outliers or tell me I'm crazy

You're a psycho.

 

(trying this again)

[Docwaukee]

1 hour ago, Lou said:

You're a psycho.

 

(trying this again)

Run, run, run, run, run, run, run away

[Lou]

44 minutes ago, Dochalo said:

Run, run, run, run, run, run, run away

I think we may be on different pages. 

[Blarg]

2 hours ago, AngelsLakersFan said:

Doesn't that prove my point about risk?

What it proves is that there isn't a player that isn't a risk. Even the GOAT. It's the reward you are paying for otherwise you are the Marlins with a $25 million dollar payroll. 

[Docwaukee]

7 minutes ago, Lou said:

I think we may be on different pages. 

 I normally pick up what you're puttin' down but for some reason I'm missing this one.  

[Angelsjunky]

9 hours ago, tdawg87 said:

If James Earl Jones and George R.R. Martin had a love child.

 

[Angelsjunky]

First thought: Ryan Tepera, cool - the bullpen just got a bit better.

Second thought: $7M?! For two years? A pretty big overpay for a guy who really should be a savvy 1/$4M signing.

[Lou]

5 minutes ago, Dochalo said:

 I normally pick up what you're puttin' down but for some reason I'm missing this one.  

Think milk before cereal.

[Docwaukee]

1 minute ago, Lou said:

Think milk before cereal.

oh shit.  duh.  

[Lou]

Just now, Dochalo said:

oh shit.  duh.  

I've been using it ever since.