Perry's Plan Revisioned (or Solved?)

[Stradling]

6 minutes ago, T.G. said:

So Strad, do you feel that way about your employees?  You just owe them for the work they do and nothing more? 

My point is he has faith in the ballclub more so than a lot of fans.  He put a ton of thought into this decision as any of us would have.  The money was going to be there for him if he let his contract run out without signing an extension.  He chose a huge some of money to stay here.  If he feels betrayed then he can express that to Arte or Minasian.  If he requests a trade then we will know how he feels.  But people make him out to be a victim and it’s pathetic. 

[Junkballer]

13 minutes ago, T.G. said:

There are two sides to that contract. I'm guessing, when they negotiated that deal there were expectations.  I'm guessing the Angels expected Trout to play to the best of his abilities and I'm guessing Trout expected the Angels to do their best to put players around him that would help him get to the post-season.  If Trout mailed it in and didn't play up to his normal standard - most fans would say he's not living up to his contract.  If the Angels "mail it in" and don't do everything they can to put the best possible team on the field, some might say they're not living up to their end of the deal.

BTW... I'm not saying this is what's happening...

So, technically Strad, you're right.  But this is also about a relationship between a generational player and an organization.  In some ways - the  Angels do owe Trout, IMO

He is morally owed what was implied during negotiations for the extension.  I doubt if it was anything more than a general committment to improve the organization as a whole, and Trout had to evaluate Artes integrity in that regard.  Now should Arte sell the team or pass away, he is owed his contract and nothing more.  

[T.G.]

12 minutes ago, Stradling said:

 But people make him out to be a victim and it’s pathetic. 

Fans are frustrated.  I don't see anyone actually saying he's a "victim."  I think fans are just frustrated and projecting.

[Angels Fan Forever]

2 hours ago, Stradling said:

He probably hasn’t impressed you because you want to improve the ceiling and he’s improved the floor. He’s also improved the depth and he’s given up zero impact prospects and no real future commitments after this season.  If this team performs well out of the gate then at the deadline they can improve the ceiling. 

The "He" in this response could have easily been Eppler and not Minasian who you are referring to.

This is my point. What has Minasian done that Eppler would not have?

[floplag]

If he somehow pulls off a trade for a significant arm, IE a Marquez deal or Gray... his plan becomes genius.
Without it it looks thrown together.
At this point I dont think its been revised or re-envisioned at all, i think its just our speculation getting carried away.
If we were never actually going to break the tax threshold, Bauer was never an option, nor is any other high dollar FA.
He made the club better within those guidelines.
If he can somehow fill in the missing piece, a front line arm, maybe a reliever like a Rosenthal in the process, hes right where he needs to be.
The rest is just us apparently wanting more for the club than the club wants for it self or is willing to do. 

[ThisismineScios]

56 minutes ago, Angelsjunky said:

- Internal solutions are more cost-effective. If a prospect develops into a #3 starter, you get six years of relatively cheap performance (say, 6/$30M), rather than paying a free agent 6/$90M or more.

I know I forget this a lot, but this is really important for team building. Why could the Dodgers pay Bauer? Because their ace (sorry, it's not Kershaw) is still in Arbitration year 1. They won't have to pay Buehler for 3 years. Urias for 4. If you can fill out your rotation with internal options, you are set up to build a top notch rotation by spending or trading. 

[Inside Pitch]

Haven't read through this all -- not sure if it's been said.  But I'm guessing Minasian came in the situation aware of what his needs were, and then given a dollar figure he had to work with.  I'd also venture to guess that he's got a long term plan and possibly felt it would be wise to get a better grasp of everything in the system rather than possibly trading away extra value.  

We will get a better idea of who Minasian is and what he values 12 months from now.  

[Angelsjunky]

 

2 minutes ago, Inside Pitch said:

Haven't read through this all -- not sure if it's been said.  But I'm guessing Minasian came in the situation aware of what his needs were, and then given a dollar figure he had to work with.  I'd also venture to guess that he's got a long term plan and possibly felt it would be wise to get a better grasp of everything in the system rather than possibly trading away extra value.  

We will get a better idea of who Minasian is and what he values 12 months from now.  

That could be the TLDR version of my original post. I would only add the emphasis on no long-term deals, either because Arte wanted it (having been burned time and time again) and/or because Minasian wants more long-term flexibility.

[Inside Pitch]

2 minutes ago, Angelsjunky said:

 

That could be the TLDR version of my original post. I would only add the emphasis on no long-term deals, either because Arte wanted it (having been burned time and time again) and/or because Minasian wants more long-term flexibility.

Yep, or just the uncertainty of everything happening this year and with the CBA.   

[Angelsjunky]

23 minutes ago, ThisismineScios said:

I know I forget this a lot, but this is really important for team building. Why could the Dodgers pay Bauer? Because their ace (sorry, it's not Kershaw) is still in Arbitration year 1. They won't have to pay Buehler for 3 years. Urias for 4. If you can fill out your rotation with internal options, you are set up to build a top notch rotation by spending or trading. 

Yes, although Urias has been around awhile (he was injured) and enters arbitration next year, but is club-controlled through 2023. But May and Gonsolin don't enter arb until 2023, May a free agent in 2026, Gonsolin in 2027. And they have Josiah Gray coming up, another young pitching stud.

Meaning, Kershaw, Bauer, and maybe Price will hold the rotation over, with the present and future being Buehler, Urias, May, Gonsolin, and Gray, and whoever else they acquire.

That said, I wonder what will happen with Kershaw. He's not the same pitcher he was, more of a #2 but he'll try to be paid like a #1. I could see the Dodgers offering something like 3/$66M, but some other team offering 4/$100M or so. 

Edited February 8, 2021 by Angelsjunky

[Angelsjunky]

Not to derail into Dodgers talk, but Kershaw is reminding me a bit of latter-day Maddux. Maddux was an absolute stud through 1998, his age 32 season, then slipped to merely very good for four years through 2002 (age 36), then was merely pretty good through the end of his career, 2008 (age 42).

Kershaw's last year of total studness was 2017 (age 29), has been very good  for the last few years (through age 32 so far). I could see him maintaining his current level for another 2-3 years, then cropping to the "pretty good" level for another handful of seasons. Meaning, he's on the Maddux path, just dropping notches a few years earlier than Maddux did. 

Edited February 8, 2021 by Angelsjunky

[Stradling]

58 minutes ago, Angels Fan Forever said:

The "He" in this response could have easily been Eppler and not Minasian who you are referring to.

This is my point. What has Minasian done that Eppler would not have?

Brought in other front office evaluators that have had great success. 

[ThisismineScios]

3 minutes ago, Angelsjunky said:

Yes, although Urias has been around awhile (he was injured) and enters arbitration next year, but is club-controlled through 2023. But May and Gonsolin don't enter arb until 2023, May a free agent in 2026, Gonsolin in 2027. And they have Josiah Gray coming up, another young pitching stud.

Meaning, Kershaw, Bauer, and maybe Price will hold the rotation over, with the present and future being Buehler, Urias, May, Gonsolin, and Gray, and whoever else they acquire.

That said, I wonder what will happen with Kershaw. He's not the same pitcher he was, more of a #2 but he'll try to be paid like a #1. I could see the Dodgers offering something like 3/$66M, but some other team offering 4/$100M or so. 

Geez, I hadn't even thought about May or Gonsolin. I think they should trade Gonsolin; I think he's the odd man out for the next 2 years.  

They will always be able to attract talent, and with their farm they will always be in play for a trade for quality starters. 

I think teams that are desperate for relevancy will make a play for him. I could also see him finding the Rangers appealing since he's from the Dallas area. 

[Angelsjunky]

6 minutes ago, ThisismineScios said:

Geez, I hadn't even thought about May or Gonsolin. I think they should trade Gonsolin; I think he's the odd man out for the next 2 years.  

They will always be able to attract talent, and with their farm they will always be in play for a trade for quality starters. 

I think teams that are desperate for relevancy will make a play for him. I could also see him finding the Rangers appealing since he's from the Dallas area. 

My guess is that they'll try to unload Price if at all possible, although would almost certainly have to pay at least half his contract. They could also let him play it out this year, hopefully re-establish some value, then trade him in July. If not, maybe they trade Gonsolin, but he's quite a valuable trade chip with virtually his entire prime within club control.

Fangraphs has their depth chart as Bauer, Buehler, and Kershaw all being full-time starters, Urias and Price being three-quarters time, and May and Gonsolin less than half, both spending time in the bullpen. Makes sense.

[ThisismineScios]

38 minutes ago, Angelsjunky said:

My guess is that they'll try to unload Price if at all possible, although would almost certainly have to pay at least half his contract. They could also let him play it out this year, hopefully re-establish some value, then trade him in July. If not, maybe they trade Gonsolin, but he's quite a valuable trade chip with virtually his entire prime within club control.

Fangraphs has their depth chart as Bauer, Buehler, and Kershaw all being full-time starters, Urias and Price being three-quarters time, and May and Gonsolin less than half, both spending time in the bullpen. Makes sense.

How much is Boston paying of his current salary? 

[Stradling]

2 minutes ago, ThisismineScios said:

How much is Boston paying of his current salary? 

$32 million I think. 

[Inside Pitch]

1 hour ago, Stradling said:

Brought in other front office evaluators that have had great success. 

Honestly that pretty much IS the difference.  When Eppler came in he brought in guys he knew but weren't established.  Minasian has done a lot better in that area.  Still, they may have been a bunch of nobodies but to go from no analytic department save for one dude and his helper monkey to a staff that ranks among the top 10 was a huge improvement.  

The really crazy part, the last time I saw a list with the number of people in the analytical departments the Dodgers had almost twice as many as the team in third place.   

[BTH]

3 hours ago, Stradling said:

Brought in other front office evaluators that have had great success. 

Yeah, Minasian has really bulked up the front office with talent, unlike Eppler. I don't know if Eppler wasn't allowed to or if he didn't want to.

[Angelsjunky]

2 hours ago, ThisismineScios said:

How much is Boston paying of his current salary? 

 

2 hours ago, Stradling said:

$32 million I think. 

Yep. Boston is paying half of his salary and he's owed $32M in each of the next two years, so he's essentially owed a 2/$32M contract.

[ThisismineScios]

18 minutes ago, Angelsjunky said:

 

Yep. Boston is paying half of his salary and he's owed $32M in each of the next two years, so he's essentially owed a 2/$32M contract.

So if he's at $16 million / year, the Angels could offer to pay $8-10 of that if they wanted to? I'm not totally sold on Price, I'd rather spend that on a reliever. 

[Angelsjunky]

27 minutes ago, ThisismineScios said:

So if he's at $16 million / year, the Angels could offer to pay $8-10 of that if they wanted to? I'm not totally sold on Price, I'd rather spend that on a reliever. 

The Dodgers really don't need Price and only acquired him to get Betts. I imagine they'd part with him for not much and pay most of his salary.

On the other hand, at some point he's worth having around. I'd guess the over/under would part with him if they could get someone to pay $6-8M a year. But that's just a hunch.

Price would be kind of tempting at 2/$12M, but it starts breaking down over that. 

But again, who would he replace? They just acquired Quintana and Cobb. Right now they're probably hoping for 30 starts from Bundy, Heaney, and Quintana, 25 from Canning and Cobb, 20 from Ohtani, with Barria/Sandoval etc filling in as players are inevitably injured. If they got Price, and assuming he's the same pitcher he was in 2019--thus, about as good as Heaney/Quintana--I suppose that would push Cobb to the bullpen, but then what was the point of the Cobb trade?

Edited February 8, 2021 by Angelsjunky

[Torridd]

19 hours ago, Lou said:

Who's?

The one I replied to.

[Lou]

1 minute ago, Torridd said:

The one I replied to.

Ok, but who stated that Minasian was " jumping in the job feet first" ?

[Angels Fan Forever]

2 hours ago, Inside Pitch said:

Honestly that pretty much IS the difference.  When Eppler came in he brought in guys he knew but weren't established.  Minasian has done a lot better in that area.  Still, they may have been a bunch of nobodies but to go from no analytic department save for one dude and his helper monkey to a staff that ranks among the top 10 was a huge improvement.  

The really crazy part, the last time I saw a list with the number of people in the analytical departments the Dodgers had almost twice as many as the team in third place.   

Who are they and what is their background? I don't know this so thanks in advance for the update.

[Inside Pitch]

14 minutes ago, Angels Fan Forever said:

Who are they and what is their background? I don't know this so thanks in advance for the update.

Hi, welcome to the board. 

We have a running thread covering the hires as they were announced.  You can get a feel for peoples opinions about the various people here ... 

He's really put together a very good group of established people.