The Other Guy (not Cole)

[nate]

I still think it is very unlikely that the Angels land Cole, let alone a second.  Cole is going to be the biggest FA on the market.  Not to mention that the Angels are going to be by far the worst team vying for his services.

[angelsnationtalk]

4 hours ago, RBM said:

Wheeler seems to be the consensus here but I could see the Astros going after him to replace Cole. 

If we could sign Bumgarner to be our #2 it would be amazing. I’d be happy with either one.

Cole/Bumgarner/Ohtani/Heaney/Canning

So what type of money are you going to pay for Cole and Bumgarner? That’s a Hefty price  

[angelsnationtalk]

3 hours ago, Angelsjunky said:

The key is balancing projected performance and money commitment, and in my mind there's a big gap between Cole and everyone else.

Cole is by far the best available free agent (assuming Strasburg doesn't opt out, which I would be very surprised if he did). He's going to cost a huge amount, which narrows the gap between him and everyone else somewhat, but he's got a good chance of maintaining his value.

After Cole, its Zach Wheeler. Even if there's no untapped potential for a performance spike, he's still a very good #3 - a 4 WAR, 3.50ish ERA type.

After those two, it is hard to say, with a huge number of pitchers who fit into the mid-rotation mold, and should get multi-year contracts, probably in the 2-3 year range, depending upon age. Odorizzi, Ryu, Bumgarner, Keuchel, Roark, Porcello, Hamels, Gibson. Of these guys I'd probably go after Odorizzi, but would consider the others for shorter contracts.

Then there's another gap, with a group including Miley, Nova, Gonzalez, Pineda, Chacin, Anderson, Hill, Wood, and maybe one or two others. These are one-year, fill-in types that could surprise and have a good year (e.g. Miley) or could implode (e.g. Cahill, Harvey).

Finally there are trade candidates, the two most commonly mentioned being Matthew Byrd and Robbie Ray. I'd put these guys in the same vicinity as Odorizzi, but with the caveat of them costing prospects. 

So for me the best case scenario would be Cole and Wheeler. But I don't think Arte will open up the purse-strings for both as I think Cole will not only get $30M AAV, but Wheeler will surprise and get ~$20M AAV. Maybe Cole and a one-year fill-in or a trade, or maybe Wheeler  and Odorizzi. 

I think Cole will sign for around $28M/yr. So let’s assume Arte open up the books knowing for the next 3 years that a lot of money comes off (Calhoun, Cozart, maybe Simmons, Pujols then Upton in that order). 

Cole/Wheeler is a great combo, but maybe they’d look at Bumgarner for a few reasons. He’s a decently good hitting pitcher that could play for a WS run. He’s a solid pitcher that generally sits around 200ip when healthy. And he’s the type of guy that can lead an entire team when it comes to the postseason and especially the World Series. That’s experience that any clubhouse would love to have. 

Plus we haven’t had anyone on our rotation that has had that Jared Weaver attitude and Bumgarner has that flare. Just a side thought.

[Pancake Bear]

2 hours ago, angelsnationtalk said:

I think Cole will sign for around $28M/yr. So let’s assume Arte open up the books knowing for the next 3 years that a lot of money comes off (Calhoun, Cozart, maybe Simmons, Pujols then Upton in that order). 

Cole/Wheeler is a great combo, but maybe they’d look at Bumgarner for a few reasons. He’s a decently good hitting pitcher that could play for a WS run. He’s a solid pitcher that generally sits around 200ip when healthy. And he’s the type of guy that can lead an entire team when it comes to the postseason and especially the World Series. That’s experience that any clubhouse would love to have. 

Plus we haven’t had anyone on our rotation that has had that Jared Weaver attitude and Bumgarner has that flare. Just a side thought.

You do understand that his past absurd success in the post-season isn't something he can just 'turn on', right? 

[Blarg]

His last playoff game 4 years ago he obviously lost track of the switch and only lasted 5 innings losing to the Cubs.

[totdprods]

20 hours ago, Inside Pitch said:

I've wanted Wheeler for years...  Lots of reasons.   Tell you who could be a huge value play.... Pineda.   Yes the dude just got popped with a suspension, and I'm curious what the story is if only because he was able to get the suspension reduced by 20 games after proving he had not taken the drug as a masking agent.   But check his numbers since early May or so when his velocity kicked back up.... On the year he's been good for an era of 4.00 with a k/w ratio of 5.0.   He's likely got the best upside of anyone not named Wheeler.  Whoever signs him will have to wait 30 days to use him but the guy may be worth the wait.

Pineda had been on my radar too, and I agree that the suspension might actually help in that it’ll drive the commitment way down. 

I still think Strasburg waits another year before opting out, won’t have to compete with Cole for the top FA SP, and his salary is $25m in ‘20 before dropping back to $15m in ‘21.

I’ve always liked Roark as a steady back-of-rotation arm, and think one of Matt Moore (dominant in two GS before tearing knee) or Drew Smyly (w/ PHI, 9 GS, 3.93 ERA, 1.29 WHIP) could be next year’s Gio/Miley. Jordan Lyles is another to keep an eye on for a cheap #5. He pitched very well for Pittsburgh for his first dozen or so starts, hit a bump in the road, was dealt to Milwaukee, and he's righted the ship - as a Brewer, 7 starts, 38.2 IP, 2.56 ERA, 1.06 WHIP, 27 hits, 14 walks, 34 strikeouts. Wade Miley turned his career around after a half-season in Milwaukee.

It's also easy to laugh at and dismiss Homer Bailey, but in ten starts with Oakland, he has six quality starts, and two others - 5.2 IP, 0 ER, 5.2 IP, 2 ER, 1 BB, 9 K, that just missed being quality starts by one out. He was torched in the other two starts, 9 ER in 2 IP vs. Houston, and 7 ER in 4.2 IP against the Cubs, aka known as arguably the best team in baseball and a team that has historically owned him - 5.20 ERA in 21 GS. He had six other quality starts with KC out of 18 which again, not great, but if he costs $3m to tie up #5, not the worst. Sort of like Barria, he should keep you in the game 75% of the time, struggle 12.5% of the time, and then really suck 12.5% of the time, though he has the ability to get a little deeper in games. I also like the idea of snagging a super-cheap #5 because it's a possible trade piece at the deadline if they're doing okay and we have a young arm ready to come up.

On the trade market, I wanna mention that Boyd’s recent struggles might also 1) bring his trade value down to something more acceptable and 2) motivate the Tigers to sell high. I don’t think he is as good as his first half, but not as bad as his second half. He’s taken a step forward still IMO and still getting a lot of strikeouts while limiting hits and walks. He’s just getting torched by the HR ball of late, which could simply be a little flukey or sloppy as the season winds down.

Edited September 9, 2019 by totdprods

[angelsnationtalk]

6 hours ago, Sean-Regan said:

You do understand that his past absurd success in the post-season isn't something he can just 'turn on', right? 

Absolutely. But i'd take that chance more than anyone else on our team who hasn't experienced that. 

[floplag]

On 9/8/2019 at 5:28 AM, Baghdad Strad said:

For me it’s Wheeler, he’s got good stuff and he’s young enough.  After that it would be Mad Bum.   Who would I enjoy being on the team most, probably Mad Bum.  He’s got a personality and some moxie.  Angels haven’t had a dude with balls on the mound since Weaver and before that Lackey.   

This is about the reality of it right here.  MadBum scares me a little but hes definitely got the juice.
I think the best option might be thru trade over FA.  I dont really see another true impact guy thats going to be worth what he will cost in this class.  It needs to be a #1 or a #2 type guy.  Make a deal for it, and use the FA money to fill in a gap on offense.   But i suspect that wont be a popular view. 

[Hubs]

You have to look at the Angels pitching staff as a mix of veterans, peak age guys, and youth.

This season, we lost a peak age guy (RIP #45), the veterans didn't work out, and the youth has had to carry the load. Next year, you are probably looking at a Veteran FA signing / Trade, and a Prime-Era FA signing / Trade if they can do it. Then they'll go with one peak age guy they have in the rotation now, in Heaney. And add younger starters in Canning, Ohtani, Sandoval, and Suarez.

If they go to 6 starters, or even 5.5, I don't know if they plan on signing two guys. I'd prefer it, but don't know. Getting Cole would certainly help this rotation, but so would Bumgarner or Keuchel. Just a guy who, like Heaney, can go out and give you 30+ starts. Ohtani is going to get 24-27 starts. That's say, 86, if Cole gives you 32, and Heaney gives you 30. That leaves 76 games for Canning, Sandoval, Suarez, Pena, and JC, plus whomever else.

I think the young guys are all going to be on the SLC shuttle, with Pena and JC filling in, too. I can see Pena / JC starting say 16, and the other three young ones averaging 20. One of those three could be dealt too.

The opener skews the starting numbers, but how many starts do you think leads the team? It's Canning's 18. Pena leads in IP with 96.

They need two guys to give them 30+ starts. In their last playoff year, they had that with Richards and Santiago both hitting 32+ with 207 and 180 IP in the mid 3.5 ERA range. Weaver and Shoemaker had 26 and 24, with ERA's in the mid 4's, Wilson had 21, in the high 3's, and Heaney had 18, in the mid 3's.

If they can repeat or exceed this, they'll be in the playoffs.

 

Cole at 33 starts, with a sub 3 ERA would be fantastic.

Ohtani at 27 starts with a sub 3 ERA would be fantastic.

Heaney at 28 starts with a high 3's to low 4's would be great.

Canning at 27 starts with a mid 3's to high 3''s would be great.

Suarez/Sandoval/Barria/Pena/JC Ramirez/Peters with 47 starts at a combined 4.20 ERA would be fantastic.

 

Don't see room for another veteran starter, unless someone gets bumped or traded.

 

[Angelsjunky]

Good post, @Hubs, and while I agree with the logic of it, it veers a bit too much into optimism for my liking - that is,  all of your projections are best case scenarios.

I get it - I do the same all the time - but I think part of the reasoning behind a second starter is the unfortunate likelihood that something goes wrong. I personally don't feel comfortable relying on 27 starts from Ohtani, or relegating a third of all starts to that group of pitchers. One injury to Cole, Ohtani, or Heaney, and all of a sudden you have more than half of all starts going to a relatively untried group of pitchers.

So I still think that Eppler will sign two starters. He'll go hard after Cole, but get the best starter he can sign, and then a second starter that will bring the total to ~$40M AAV. So maybe Cole/Miley or Wheeler/Odorizzi. Something like that.

[Claude]

On 9/8/2019 at 9:50 PM, RBM said:

Well, whatever it takes I hope but it's not our money.

The fact is we are going to have about $39 M in space after arbitration to get back to this years budget and I think/hope this is the year Arte increases the budget.

We also have up to $73 M coming off the books the next three years. 

2020 - Possibly $15 M for Simba. 

2021 - $30 M for Pujols. 

2022 - $28 M for Upton.

So we can backload a deal if necessary.

I just find it hilarious that we’re already counting the days for when Upton comes off the books. So he’s not part of the building around Trout plan?

[Blarg]

4 minutes ago, Calzone 2 said:

I just find it hilarious that we’re already counting the days for when Upton comes off the books. So he’s not part of the building around Trout plan?

You are literally the only one bringing up Upton on a daily basis. The others only bring him into a conversation that is relevant to talk about him. Just knock it off you agenda driven weasel. 

[Troll Daddy]

I think the Angels would be jumping the gun signing a top tier pitcher (like Gerrit Cole) to a massive contract this off season.  It would make more sense if the team signed him to strengthen their chances for a WS run in 2020. The team right now is still struggling just to make the playoffs. 

Sign one or two second tier FA pitchers and get another legit bat/catcher. There will be plenty of chances to sign or trade for a top tier pitcher next off season or possibly the trade deadline if needed

[Docwaukee]

4 hours ago, Blarg said:

You are literally the only one bringing up Upton on a daily basis. The others only bring him into a conversation that is relevant to talk about him. Just knock it off you agenda driven weasel. 

HAHA!  Blarg called you a weasel.  

[Docwaukee]

19 minutes ago, Troll Daddy said:

I think the Angels would be jumping the gun signing a top tier pitcher (like Gerrit Cole) to a massive contract this off season.  It would make more sense if the team signed him to strengthen their chances for a WS run in 2020. The team right now is still struggling just to make the playoffs. 

Sign one or two second tier FA pitchers and get another legit bat/catcher. There will be plenty of chances to sign or trade for a top tier pitcher next off season or possibly the trade deadline if needed

that doesn't make any sense to me.  There are not plenty of chances to acquire an ace whether via trade or FA.  He's one of like 8 or 10 guys in all of baseball that fit the ace criteria.  Get the other guys later or via trade if need be.  They're much easier to find.  

[Inside Pitch]

4 hours ago, Blarg said:

You are literally the only one bringing up Upton on a daily basis. The others only bring him into a conversation that is relevant to talk about him. Just knock it off you agenda driven weasel. 

He's just acting out.  Likely a case of his needing to "take his frustrations with the team out on others", a situation that's being compounded by his golden boy "Melwin Goodwin" failing to reach base in 12 consecutive at bats.

 

[Tank]

On 9/8/2019 at 5:28 PM, azmancini said:

Wheeler, Bum and Stras just sceam extended DL...Yes, that’s DISABLED list  

[Stradling]

13 hours ago, Blarg said:

You are literally the only one bringing up Upton on a daily basis. The others only bring him into a conversation that is relevant to talk about him. Just knock it off you agenda driven weasel. 

A wise man once suggested I put people on ignore. 

[Jeff Fletcher]

13 hours ago, Angelsjunky said:

So I still think that Eppler will sign two starters. He'll go hard after Cole, but get the best starter he can sign, and then a second starter that will bring the total to ~$40M AAV. So maybe Cole/Miley or Wheeler/Odorizzi. Something like that.

This would be my bet. 

[NJHalo]

In on all

Signs no one