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Updated Fangraphs farm system rankings


floplag

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1 hour ago, floplag said:

That we have our work cut out for us more than some think. 

It's not clear to me whether these rankings include promoted players like Thaiss and Canning - if a healthier organization, they'd still be in the minors.

Whatever, I think we all knew what a wasteland our minor league system was post-DiPoto - it was barren.  

To remind you what Eppler walked into:  https://www.minorleagueball.com/2016/4/2/11333890/minor-league-baseball-farm-system-rankings-for-2016

Quote

UGHHHH: The Angels get a special category of badness all their own.

30) Los Angeles Angels: 
The best Angels prospect, catcher Taylor Ward, wouldn’t be a top ten guy in most systems. Trades gutted an already very weak system and this is now a complete from-the-ground-up rebuild project. There’s no way to spin it: this may be the worst system in recent memory. Overview, click at your own risk. 2015 Rank: 28th

And probably the only way to get to, say, top 5 is to become really, really bad to gain top draft position, and to trade off every tradeable asset we have - including the unthinkable - trading Trout for a whole basket of top-end prospects. 

Then, after a couple of years, we'd have a AAA-class major league team, but with a top-tier farm system with a solid future - and also, no fans.  

Anyway, to the point, I doubt any but the most Pollyanna-ish fans don't see the talent deficit we face, especially in starting pitching, and the difficulty we face in filling it.  Some part of me thinks we should get a comp pick for Skaggs.  

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9 minutes ago, DCAngelsFan said:

It's not clear to me whether these rankings include promoted players like Thaiss and Canning - if a healthier organization, they'd still be in the minors.

They do not count Suarez, Canning, Buttrey or Rengifo.  Those gus were ranked at 50, 50, 40, 45 FV prospects in February -- which would meant they lost 21, 21, 8, 3 mil in additional FV in the most recent rankings...    So, you add that 53 mil to the 191 they are listing them and they'd be sitting at 244 in FV...   which would rank 7th, just ahead of Seattle.    Thing is, those guys actually coming up and putting up positive values means they are already exceeding those valuations..   Canning, Buttrey Rengifo alone have combined for 3.0 fWAR -- so the math is pretty easy to do.

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/an-update-to-prospect-valuation/

The article linked above does a pretty good job of explaining FV unfortunately few people ever actually read it, and thus don't understand how to use the rankings.

Honestly the thing FV does best is show just how much the odds are stacked against prospects delivering on their potential...  which is again, the nice thing about the Angels already getting production from certain guys.

   
 

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42 minutes ago, Inside Pitch said:

They do not count Suarez, Canning, Buttrey or Rengifo.  Those gus were ranked at 50, 50, 40, 45 FV prospects in February -- which would meant they lost 21, 21, 8, 3 mil in additional FV in the most recent rankings...    So, you add that 53 mil to the 191 they are listing them and they'd be sitting at 244 in FV...   which would rank 7th, just ahead of Seattle.    Thing is, those guys actually coming up and putting up positive values means they are already exceeding those valuations..   Canning, Buttrey Rengifo alone have combined for 3.0 fWAR -- so the math is pretty easy to do.

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/an-update-to-prospect-valuation/

The article linked above does a pretty good job of explaining FV unfortunately few people ever actually read it, and thus don't understand how to use the rankings.

Honestly the thing FV does best is show just how much the odds are stacked against prospects delivering on their potential...  which is again, the nice thing about the Angels already getting production from certain guys.

   
 

they actually included Suarez on the list.  but your point still stands.  it's much different to actual realize that value at the major league level than to have traded it away.  

we might end up with a middle of the pack system again this time next year but will have graduated a third and potentially close to 1/2 of the major league roster in the span of two years.  

It only matters how they make the major league team better.  

and if we're splitting hairs, we now have a higher ranking than both Oakland and Houston.  

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Who are all these great prospects that got traded away for bad players? We traded away Corbin but got Haren. I thought it was a steep price unless we resigned him. I was very against trading away Segura even if we resigned Greinke. Losing Randal was just bad. I consider the trade for Simmons to be a good thing so I'm not counting losing Newcomb. I am trying to think of all these great prospects that have been good major leaguers and I can't think of many.  Which prospects if kept would be helping the team today. Do they win a World Series with Corbin and Segura? Would both players still be on the team? I did not look but can anyone here name all the prospects that were traded away and would they still be on the roster today or would have helped us win a World Series? Isn't it more on being bad at drafting?

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9 minutes ago, beatlesrule said:

Who are all these great prospects that got traded away for bad players? We traded away Corbin but got Haren. I thought it was a steep price unless we resigned him. I was very against trading away Segura even if we resigned Greinke. Losing Randal was just bad. I consider the trade for Simmons to be a good thing so I'm not counting losing Newcomb. I am trying to think of all these great prospects that have been good major leaguers and I can't think of many.  Which prospects if kept would be helping the team today. Do they win a World Series with Corbin and Segura? Would both players still be on the team? I did not look but can anyone here name all the prospects that were traded away and would they still be on the roster today or would have helped us win a World Series? Isn't it more on being bad at drafting?

Clevinger is another one just thrown away for literally nothing. 

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10 hours ago, DCAngelsFan said:

It's not clear to me whether these rankings include promoted players like Thaiss and Canning - if a healthier organization, they'd still be in the minors.

Whatever, I think we all knew what a wasteland our minor league system was post-DiPoto - it was barren.  

To remind you what Eppler walked into:  https://www.minorleagueball.com/2016/4/2/11333890/minor-league-baseball-farm-system-rankings-for-2016

And probably the only way to get to, say, top 5 is to become really, really bad to gain top draft position, and to trade off every tradeable asset we have - including the unthinkable - trading Trout for a whole basket of top-end prospects. 

Then, after a couple of years, we'd have a AAA-class major league team, but with a top-tier farm system with a solid future - and also, no fans.  

Anyway, to the point, I doubt any but the most Pollyanna-ish fans don't see the talent deficit we face, especially in starting pitching, and the difficulty we face in filling it.  Some part of me thinks we should get a comp pick for Skaggs.  

Im sorry but what the hades does DiPoto have to do with where we are now?  Last off season we we all talking about a potentially top 5 farm and praising Eppler, now somehow its all back on DiPoto?

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9 hours ago, Dochalo said:

they actually included Suarez on the list.  but your point still stands.  it's much different to actual realize that value at the major league level than to have traded it away.  

we might end up with a middle of the pack system again this time next year but will have graduated a third and potentially close to 1/2 of the major league roster in the span of two years.  

It only matters how they make the major league team better.  

I actually asked if they had -- because I saw the 50 grade pitching prospect and assumed it was him but was told that he wasn't because of the 45 days of service time.   I haven't taken the time to add up all the players to see if it's a print error or whatever but yeah, you catch my drift... The point is they are actualizing their "future value", and to date,  Suarez has been the weakest performing one of the quartet.

 

Edited by Inside Pitch
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38 minutes ago, floplag said:

Im sorry but what the hades does DiPoto have to do with where we are now?  Last off season we we all talking about a potentially top 5 farm and praising Eppler, now somehow its all back on DiPoto?

I get where they are coming from.   Now that the first wave of prospects has been promoted to the MLB level, now the overall ranking takes a hit.   In 2 more years, the better rookie ball and A ball prospects currently here should be up to between A+ and AAA levels.   Then assuming continued solid drafting, the team ranking should return to top 10 by then. 

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10 minutes ago, Angel Oracle said:

I get where they are coming from.   Now that the first wave of prospects has been promoted to the MLB level, now the overall ranking takes a hit.   In 2 more years, the better rookie ball and A ball prospects currently here should be up to between A+ and AAA levels.   Then assuming continued solid drafting, the team ranking should return to top 10 by then. 

Thats great but how does it help the ML club in 20, 21... even 22?
where are those low cost options well need to offset the money?
I get it , i truly do, but the point is to win at the ML level, not farm wars.   Yes i know they tent to run hand in hand and all but exactly when is our window supposed to be? 

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40 minutes ago, floplag said:

Im sorry but what the hades does DiPoto have to do with where we are now?  Last off season we we all talking about a potentially top 5 farm and praising Eppler, now somehow its all back on DiPoto?

it was always on dipoto for creating the original mess.  If there was anyone who had us in the top five then that was a huge stretch.  We were firmly around 10-15 as most agreed and we could have vaulted into the top 5 had we not had promotions at the major league level and/or if some of the + guys broke out.   We dropped back a few slots for graduations and none of our lower level guys broke out.  We did get some mild advancement on the pitching side.  As IP mentioned, we be about seventh if not for the promotions.  

My point of what you are missing and have missed in the past is that the major league team is getting better.  There are five players on the 25 man roster who graduated or are set to graduate just this year.  It's not about the ranking in a vacuum.  If there are no injuries or tragedies then all those guys are still on that list and we're 7.  What would you rather have.  A better farm system or an improved major league club.  

I would like to see where it was claimed we were top five.  

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9 hours ago, Dochalo said:

and if we're splitting hairs, we now have a higher ranking than both Oakland and Houston.  

Wasn't the argument from the OP at one point that the Angels couldnt possibly pass those teams up without having some huge breakout seasons? 

Wasn't the counter argument that the Angels would likely leapfrog them simply because they were likely to graduate them and the Angels were likely to see more players added to the back end of the rankings?

Guess what -- neither the A's nor Astros have graduated their big gun prospects and yet the Angels have in fact passed them.   

But narratives

47 minutes ago, floplag said:

Im sorry but what the hades does DiPoto have to do with where we are now?  Last off season we we all talking about a potentially top 5 farm and praising Eppler, now somehow its all back on DiPoto?

We were?  Only time I can remember the topic being someone having a top 5 farm system was when you posted this .... 

 

... look who brought up Dipoto

BTW -- contrary to your contention that "the plan" hinged on the farm system achieving top 5 status, that's never been the goal.   Having the farm system funnel useful players up to MLB is, was and always should be...  That's actually been happening even though "you" didn't see it coming as quickly as it has.  

16 minutes ago, Angel Oracle said:

I get where they are coming from.   Now that the first wave of prospects has been promoted to the MLB level, now the overall ranking takes a hit.   In 2 more years, the better rookie ball and A ball prospects currently here should be up to between A+ and AAA levels.   Then assuming continued solid drafting, the team ranking should return to top 10 by then. 

Thing is -- if they do it right, they should always be in the middle and up when it comes to these FG future value lists...   The goal shouldn't be to hit a certain number and then call it game over -- the point of a farm system is to keep the talent coming.   That's where Dipoto's turn at GM sunk this team, that's what Eppler had to correct,  that's a huge reason why we are where we are

 

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2 minutes ago, Dochalo said:

it was always on dipoto for creating the original mess.  If there was anyone who had us in the top five then that was a huge stretch.  We were firmly around 10-15 as most agreed and we could have vaulted into the top 5 had we not had promotions at the major league level and/or if some of the + guys broke out.   We dropped back a few slots for graduations and none of our lower level guys broke out.  We did get some mild advancement on the pitching side.  As IP mentioned, we be about seventh if not for the promotions.  

My point of what you are missing and have missed in the past is that the major league team is getting better.  There are five players on the 25 man roster who graduated or are set to graduate just this year.  It's not about the ranking in a vacuum.  If there are no injuries or tragedies then all those guys are still on that list and we're 7.  What would you rather have.  A better farm system or an improved major league club.  

I would like to see where it was claimed we were top five.  

The original mess DiPoto left was years ago, Eppler made huge strides since then which he got full credit for, any fall back now should not be put on DiPoto. 

As for what you seem to think i dont get, you re mistaken, i get it completely, but it hasnt resulted in the team moving forward in the standings or winning more games has it?
Isnt the point to building a farm to support and improve the ML club?  Arent we fans of the Angels, not the Bees?
We all know you need a solid farm ive never disputed that, but that needs  to result in ML success or whats the point of it?

Oh, and noone claimed we were top 5, Eppler claimed that was the goal.     

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1 minute ago, Inside Pitch said:

Wasn't the argument from the OP at one point that the Angels couldnt possibly pass those teams up without having some huge breakout seasons? 

Wasn't the counter argument that the Angels would likely leapfrog them simply because they were likely to graduate them and the Angels were likely to see more players added to the back end of the rankings?

Guess what -- neither the A's nor Astros have graduated their big gun prospects and yet the Angels have in fact passed them.   

But narratives

We were?  Only time I can remember the topic being someone having a top 5 farm system was when you posted this .... 

 

... look who brought up Dipoto

BTW -- contrary to your contention that "the plan" hinged on the farm system achieving top 5 status, that's never been the goal.   Having the farm system funnel useful players up to MLB is, was and always should be...  That's actually been happening even though "you" didn't see it coming as quickly as it has.  

Thing is -- if they do it right, they should always be in the middle and up when it comes to these FG future value lists...   The goal shouldn't be to hit a certain number and then call it game over -- the point of a farm system is to keep the talent coming.   That's where Dipoto's turn at GM sunk this team, that's what Eppler had to correct,  that's a huge reason why we are where we are

 

You are the master of saving shit to try to throw in peoples faces... and thank you capt obvious for the rest of that but if youre going to give Eppler the credit for progress the last few years does he not get the blame for the fallback?  I realize the farm is holy ground to some of you and any critique of it bring out the inner zealot but the fact is the fact, we fell back this year and also have mode no strides at the ML level.  We have our work cut out for us this off season if we are to be anything more than an indefinite 500 ballclub. 

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9 minutes ago, floplag said:

Thats great but how does it help the ML club in 20, 21... even 22?
where are those low cost options well need to offset the money?
I get it , i truly do, but the point is to win at the ML level, not farm wars.   Yes i know they tent to run hand in hand and all but exactly when is our window supposed to be? 

You're the only person that seems to think the goal of a farm system is for the purposes of rankings..   At least that's what you posts are saying for you.

As far as your question goes...  Where are the low cost options?  

Fletcher
Rengifo
Canning
Barria
Suarez
Buttrey

It's too early to really include him but...  Thaiss is showing signs of at least being able to hold his own in a very small sample.

None of those guys are finished products but they have all provided positive value for their careers.   

Barria's numbers this year aren't good and yet he's given the team 2.3 bWAR as an Angel. 1.5 using fWAR.  So, using FG's 2018 valuation of 1 win being worth 9 million dollars Barria has given them almost 15 mil of value .vs 500K of salary.    

 

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14 minutes ago, Inside Pitch said:

You're the only person that seems to think the goal of a farm system is for the purposes of rankings..   At least that's what you posts are saying for you.

As far as your question goes...  Where are the low cost options?  

Fletcher
Rengifo
Canning
Barria
Suarez
Buttrey

It's too early to really include him but...  Thaiss is showing signs of at least being able to hold his own in a very small sample.

None of those guys are finished products but they have all provided positive value for their careers.   

Barria's numbers this year aren't good and yet he's given the team 2.3 bWAR as an Angel. 1.5 using fWAR.  So, using FG's 2018 valuation of 1 win being worth 9 million dollars Barria has given them almost 15 mil of value .vs 500K of salary.    

 

Sure $14 million in excess value seems useful, but by those same calculations Mike Trout was providing like $80 million in excess value per season when he first came up. If Eppler is so good and the farm is so good then why don't we have like 5 more guys like that in the system?

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15 minutes ago, floplag said:

The original mess DiPoto left was years ago, Eppler made huge strides since then which he got full credit for, any fall back now should not be put on DiPoto. 

As for what you seem to think i dont get, you re mistaken, i get it completely, but it hasnt resulted in the team moving forward in the standings or winning more games has it?
Isnt the point to building a farm to support and improve the ML club?  Arent we fans of the Angels, not the Bees?
We all know you need a solid farm ive never disputed that, but that needs  to result in ML success or whats the point of it?

Oh, and noone claimed we were top 5, Eppler claimed that was the goal.     

do you realize how many less games we'd have won this year if we didn't have that cost controlled talent?  

what you are saying has way more to do with the major league club needing a ton of help than it does the farm system.  

Plus, you don't really understand how the timing of this works do you?  

when it's clear that you've got controlled talent, you supplement at other positions where you don't.  Griffin Canning can now take a rotation spot.  Fletcher and Rengifo can man 2b/3b along with Thaiss (maybe) who can also take Bour's spot and maybe even gives them so options to get creative with Albert.  For every Griffin Canning, that's one less Trevor Cahill.  For every Ty Buttrey, that's one less Cody Allen.  For every Jo Adell, that's one less Calhoun.  That's 30m in savings.  Guess what they're going to spend that on.  But those supplements don't magically become available mid season as free agents.  

This team is losing in spite of the farm system and young players.  Not because of it.  

Will it translate?  That's gonna require Billy to make some better decisions in regards to free agents.  But he's now given himself that opportunity because of the farm system whereas he was completely handcuffed before.  It's still gonna require some good decision making in other areas though.  

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