TB last night, what do you guys think of this?

[Dick Enberg]

was anybody left at the game to witness this?

[floplag]

1 minute ago, Fish Oil said:

Yepper. Their pen had been used heavily the previous several games including a double header. They made a  prudent choice.

FYI i noted that in the original post, yes it had been.
The point here is that i dont recall ever seeing that in a game that close.  its usually a pure blowout, not a 5 run game.
Im not even arguing the math, by that they did do the right thing.
My problem with it is that in a game that is still somewhat within reach, it seems a violation of the spirit of competition and such.  A lot of things i believe in that don't count in strat-o-matic. 
So... at what point does the math make sense to try or not try?   Im assuming there is a break even point where it makes sense to go for it or not by the math or something like that?  Is it within 3 runs?   2?  if were ok with 5, and what point are we not ok with it ?

[Jay]

I see flop's point that they are in a race for a playoff spot so you do whatever it takes to win.

On the other hand it's not like the NFL where there are only 16 games and a loss is huge. There are still 59 games remaining for the Rays.

[floplag]

5 minutes ago, Jay said:

I see flop's point that they are in a race for a playoff spot so you do whatever it takes to win.

On the other hand it's not like the NFL where there are only 16 games and a loss is huge. There are still 59 games remaining for the Rays.

All valid points... not one thing anyone has said has been wrong.  I dont like it for many reasons but thats my problem... im not suggesting anyone has posted anything incorrect.  Im, not trying to be argumentative.  Im legitimately wondering at what point it makes sense, or doesnt? 

[UndertheHalo]

20 minutes ago, floplag said:

But if were basing it on the math, as had been said here they have a very low percentage chance to win, at what point does that break even?
Im legit not being sarcastic here im just curious 

I’m not sure there’s a good answer to this. 

[Jay]

3 minutes ago, floplag said:

Im legitimately wondering at what point it makes sense, or doesnt? 

Personally I'm not crazy about sending a scrub out to the mound against the Red Sox, but that's just me.

 

[floplag]

1 minute ago, Jay said:

Personally I'm not crazy about sending a scrub out to the mound against the Red Sox, but that's just me.

 

Im not even going into how it affects other teams, thats a whole other can of worms. 

[eaterfan]

13 minutes ago, floplag said:

OK but define still in the game?
We've established that 5 in the 9th is not worth the effort so how close does it have to be?  At what point does the math make the game worth playing?

I'm not good enough at math to figure it out but some factors that would have to be considered:

1. Prior bullpen use - who is able to pitch? You're not running a guy out there who has pitched two nights in a row for this mop up duty.

2. Future bullpen use - who wouldn't be available tomorrow if they went tonight?

3. Performance difference - what is the expected performance difference between the remaining relievers and the position player?

4. Odds the performance difference matters - What are the odds the offense scores enough to catch up with their remaining outs?

5. Odds the outcome of the game matter - Will this game matter in the final standings or the playoffs?

[mulwin444]

5 run deficit in the 9th...0% (per Baseball-Reference) chance winning...losing 5 of your 6 games...with the Red Sox for two more games and 2nd place/WC contention in consideration.  

I think it's a smart play.  You needs all hands on deck (and rested) to reverse your fortunes at this point.  

[floplag]

5 minutes ago, mulwin444 said:

5 run deficit in the 9th...0% (per Baseball-Reference) chance winning...losing 5 of your 6 games...with the Red Sox for two more games and 2nd place/WC contention in consideration.  

I think it's a smart play.  You needs all hands on deck (and rested) to reverse your fortunes at this point.  

Agreed, do you have the math for if its 4 runs?  3? 2? etc?  i do not. Or can you point me to that page and ill try to find it myself as im not sure where you got that number aside from the main url.  What im wondering is where is the break-even or the point where it makes more sense than not to play out the game?  

[Stradling]

Baseballreference.com

 Click around on that and explore.  It has so much information, although at times it is challenging to find what you want, however finding it will lead you to find other interesting bits of information.  Then you click on the glossary to see what everything means.  

[eaterfan]

4 minutes ago, floplag said:

Agreed, do you have the math for if its 4 runs?  3? 2? etc?  i do not. Or can you point me to that page and ill try to find it myself as im not sure where you got that number aside from the main url.  What im wondering is where is the break-even or the point where it makes more sense than not to play out the game?  

It depends on what you mean by "break even." If a team is down in a game they are rarely favored to win at any point. Maybe NYY or HOU v. Baltimore being down 1 or 2 runs in the 1st or second would be about 50% to win, but it's very rare. But teams use a sliding scale with how hard they are trying. It depends on all the factors I listed in my previous post.

[mulwin444]

4 minutes ago, floplag said:

Agreed, do you have the math for if its 4 runs?  3? 2? etc?  i do not. Or can you point me to that page and ill try to find it myself as im not sure where you got that number aside from the main url.  What im wondering is where is the break-even or the point where it makes more sense than not to play out the game?  

Baseball-reference has the odds listed under "wWE and wWPA Explanation"

https://www.baseball-reference.com/boxes/TBA/TBA201907220.shtml

In the end, tough, it's contextual not textbook...the manager has to make the call as to whether or not it's a good time to gamble a relief appearance from one of his regular relievers or not.  He's also not consulting baseball-reference when making that call. 

[Fish Oil]

43 minutes ago, floplag said:

FYI i noted that in the original post, yes it had been.
The point here is that i dont recall ever seeing that in a game that close.  its usually a pure blowout, not a 5 run game.
Im not even arguing the math, by that they did do the right thing.
My problem with it is that in a game that is still somewhat within reach, it seems a violation of the spirit of competition and such.  A lot of things i believe in that don't count in strat-o-matic. 
So... at what point does the math make sense to try or not try?   Im assuming there is a break even point where it makes sense to go for it or not by the math or something like that?  Is it within 3 runs?   2?  if were ok with 5, and what point are we not ok with it ?

I suppose one could plot some points and extract a derivative, but I could only guess at how they would construct their axes. 
More than likely it was just the the manager's choice given on the probable outcome of this game, the previous heavy usage, and the upcoming schedule. I haven't noticed many managers charting curves in the dugout, so I'll go with gut instinct as his determining factor.
That said, I understand your point.

[Pancake Bear]

I don’t have access to the data of how likely such a comeback would be, especially beginning at the 8 spot. 

Other things to consider are the situation of the bullpen and likelihood of needing them the next day or couple of days. If you anticipate needing all arms the next couple of days and the current game stays out of reach, the potential damage may be limited. Even three runs is a big hill to climb, especially in the 9th against a team’s top reliever. How often do we see 5 runs in an inning at any point? 

Seems slightly aggressive to me, but depending on the circumstances, not necessarily a bad decision.

[yk9001]

Now do scioscia's get away day lineups.

[floplag]

So... i guess we can add this to the list.
If i'm reading this right, in todays game they apparently for one batter moved the pitcher to 1B, then moved him back to the mound for the next batter.  Removing apparently the 1B from the game and not the pitcher.
This is getting... weird. 
Apparently everyone is confused now. 

Edited for correction to today, not last night

[mulwin444]

2 minutes ago, floplag said:

So... i guess we can add this to the list.
If i'm reading this right, last night they apparently for one batter moved the pitcher to 1B, then moved him back to the mound for the next batter.  Removing apparently the 1B from the game and not the pitcher.
This is getting... weird. 

 

Smart thinking outside the box on the Rays part

[floplag]

12 minutes ago, mulwin444 said:

Smart thinking outside the box on the Rays part

apparently turned into a complete clusterfuck.  Game under protest, no one knew WTF to do, even after calling NY... 20 mins delay... shitshow supreme. 

[mulwin444]

1 minute ago, floplag said:

apparently turned into a complete clusterfuck.  Game under protest, no one knew WTF to do, even after calling NY... 20 mins delay... shitshow supreme. 

They've done it before...once already this season and twice last season without protest.  Helps to have umps who know the rulebook

[yk9001]

https://deadspin.com/with-a-series-of-slowballs-stevie-wilkerson-became-the-1836724040

 

First save by a position player in major league history!