Why not to trade our top prospects......just yet

[Docwaukee]

There is a growing misconception that many here wouldn't be ok with the Halos trading away some or any of their top prospects.  

Of course we would.  Just not right now.  

Jo Adell is a really promising prospect but he's still a prospect.  He's 19 and one year removed from high school.  He's not Mike Trout nor will he be.  Ever.  

Nor will Brandon Marsh or Jahmai Jones or Griffin Canning or the next guy or the next guy.  They aren't all going to be viable starters at the major league level even.  

So then what's the point of keeping them?  

There's a couple actually and they are somewhat interrelated:

1.  The MLB club isn't good enough.  There are too many holes to justify spending prospect currency on one main player to supplement to 30m in payroll we've got in order to make this team a contender.  Would it make them competitive?  Sure but hanging your hopes on a wild card spot is a very risky way to live.  

2.  The Farm system isn't good enough.  Don't get me wrong, we have a good farm system, but it isn't great.  It lacks pitching depth and to a lesser degree, overall depth.  That depth is developing and is appropriately on par with the better systems, but it's not there at the top of the system.  In other words, there's a lot of potential but it's at the lower level.  If not for some very aggressive promotions this year, almost all of it would still be at A+ or below.  Why is that important?  Because we don't know who many of these guys are as of yet.  Of course some guys will burn out and never reach their potential, but the one that do will be far more valuable and the overall value to the system will be much greater than it is now.  

3.  Cheap, controllable talent at a minimum cost of acquisition is a huge must for any contender.  Griffin Canning and David Fletcher (as examples) providing league avg production at a league minimum salary as opposed to spending $20 mil for the same production is paramount.  When you have an Adell level prospect you are hoping to get surplus value in the $20m range from one player.   As an example, the boston red sox got 13 WAR from 4 position players not named Betts (Benintendi, Bradley, Devers, and Bogaerts) for about 14mil.  Last year, we spent $60 mil on four players that gave us -0.8 WAR.   That  have to turn that around at some point and the only way to do that is let your prospects develop.  

4. Mike Trout - So either he's going to sign an extension or he's not.  Where's he's gonna want to be from 2021 to 2030 should have nothing to do with how the team finishes in 2019.  In fact, there's a better chance of having a sustainable winner over the course of his career contract if the team doesn't leverage it's prospect currency to win right now.  Let's say we do trade away a bunch of prospects and make it to the post season in 2019 where we get bounced in the ALDS.  Do you think he's gonna sign a long term deal because he had good feeling about that?  I think not.  He and his representation are going to evaluate where he's gonna have the best chance to win over the next ten year.  

5.  It works.  Since the advent of free agency, building from within is the one tried and true methods of winning in major league baseball.  Regardless of how the game has changed, it will transcend steroids and sabermetrics and all other things.  

6. We're getting close.  Eppler has done a very good job of bringing us back to where we need to be.  This franchise was decimated 3 years ago.  Don't lose patience now.   

[Inside Pitch]

1 minute ago, Dochalo said:

2.  The Farm system isn't good enough.  Don't get me wrong, we have a good farm system, but it isn't great.  It lacks pitching depth and to a lesser degree, overall depth.  That depth is developing and is appropriately on par with the better systems, but it's not there at the top of the system.  In other words, there's a lot of potential but it's at the lower level.  If not for some very aggressive promotions this year, almost all of it would still be at A+ or below.  Why is that important?  Because we don't know who many of these guys are as of yet.  Of course some guys will burn out and never reach their potential, but the one that do will be far more valuable and the overall value to the system will be much greater than it is now.  

That's it in a nutshell.

They are without doubt massively improved from where they were two/three years ago but they are nowhere near ready to absorb the hit it would take to acquire a name brand guy like Bryant.  This isn't the 2005 Angels farm system that was 2 and 3 deep at every position with a legit prospect at every level.   Could they make a trade for s stud -- yep.  Would they be able to do anything beyond that -- NOPE.    

It's a farm in it's infancy.   

 

[Second Base]

Another factor that I'm most worried about is trading an asset before he has the chance to truly develop and have value. We saw Dipoto do that a bunch of times to the Angels, and now we're watching him do the same thing to our rivals, in much greater mass. Trading some no name prospect may not seem like a big deal right now, until he turns into Jean Segura or Michael Clevinger and is everything your team needs now at a discount price. 

Just ask the Rays if they wouldn't mind still having that no-namer they dealt to the Angels, Luis Rengifo. 

Pretend for a second the Angels acquire a steady #4/5 starter that they control for 2019 and 2020, and they don't have to sacrifice any of their elite top 100 prospects on. In fact, they didn't even have to give up any of their top 20. Just a couple of guys wil terrible numbers in rookie ball named Jerryell Rivera and Trent Deveaux. 

Fair deal, right?

Well Rivera is a tall lean lefty that's going to be throwing 95 in a year or two and Deveaux is going to be stealing 40 bases a year with pop and great defense to boot. They both end up being major leaguers by 22, and suddenly you're paying millions of dollars for guys that aren't as good as those two.

Those are the types of prospects that teams target and unless you have a GM willing to do the unpopular thing and say no, you'll never see them grow and benefit. 

[totdprods]

I’ll say, it will be real interesting to see what happens midseason if the Angels are either underwhelming again, or legitimately pushing for 1st. 

If they can’t contend in ‘19 once again, I don’t think you need to go so far as to trade Trout, but you should certainly think about the future of Skaggs, Simmons, and Heaney at that point. Selling them could really boost the farm and you’d already have a lot of talent hitting the MLB team by ‘20.

[UndertheHalo]

Great post Doc.  The Angels need to be looking to add as much talent as possible at this point and be less concerned with winning in 2019.  Whether that’s being opportunistic with the waivers or rule 5 guys or identifying a player that other clubs have given up on.  Those are the moves that will really move the needle for the Angels.  And of course, good gets in the draft and international markets.  With some luck the Angels have enough to compete for a wild card anyway.  Especially if Eppler does well this offseason.  

If the opportunity is there the one guy I would go after is Realmuto as I’ve said before in other threads. The difference there being that he’s relatively young, obviously very good, and most importantly the Angels don’t have internal answers at the position.  Realmuto I believe, genuinely does accelerate the Angels efforts to legitimately compete with the serious teams in the AL.  For him I would ok with trading players out of the top 10, but not Adell.  Otherwise, I am loathe to trade any of the Angels upper echelon guys.  In most all circumstances. 

Edited November 10, 2018 by UndertheHalo

[Second Base]

One series of moves I'm keeping my eye on are the prospects we dealt to Detroit the past two seasons for Upton and Kinsler.

For Upton, we sent Greyson Long and Elvin Rodriguez. It worked in our favor because of the Upton extension, but Long and Rodriguez were just a couple of no name guys at the time. Long was looking great at first, but needed thoracic outlet surgery, so there's a chance his career is over already. But Elvin Rodriguez just posted a great season in A Ball at age 20 and has the upside to break into a major league rotation by the time he's 22.

Still worth it, but these no name guys can frequently become quite a bit better than you think. 

Look at the Kinsler trade.

I mean so far, seems like a solid deal. We traded a couple of our lower ranked prospects for a half season of Kinsler and then flipped Kinsler for Buttrey and Jerez. 

The prospects were sent, Wilkel Hernandez got absolutely shelled in A Ball last year at age 19. But he's still 6'3" with fastball that can touch 95 and Troy Montgomery just posted a .384 OBP and has reached AA.

And then when the Red Sox traded for Kinsler, it isn't that Buttrey and Jerez were unknown as much as they were some oft injured and unproven minor league relievers at the time. Fast forward a month and Ty Buttrey is our closer and Boston could've used him down the stretch. 

Both deals were still definitely worth it so far, but it just shows that these no name guys often turn into something more.

[floplag]

Noone wants to trade anyone cause we need them.
Noone wants to sign anyone, cause they are too expensive and we cant afford it within our artificial budget, why bother anyway as the roster isnt good enough.
Whats it matter anyway when people are happy with 500 baseball as long as they get to watch Trout before he leaves.
What else is there to say, shut the forum down and well see everyone in ST 21.

Its the perfect self fulfilling prophecy.  The roster isnt good enough so it isnt worth making trades, but making trades by themselves do nothing without roster upgrades so neither one makes sense.   

Frustrating part is that its all bullshit.  We could build a playoff teams right now, that would only get better as the kids arrived.  I dont understand why people are willing to accept this as the only possible way is to wait 2-3 years.

[jessecrall]

You look for redundancies. Do we need Adell AND Marsh? Not with Upton and Trout already locked in. Do we need Rengifo AND Jahmai Jones? Nice to have insurance but no. If you sign a legit starter this offseason, can you afford to give up either Canning or Suarez? Sure. Ideally, you hold on to the one with the most upside and let other teams bet on growth. Here's hoping it rolls that way. But it does this team no good to have Rengifo on the bench and Marsh tearing it up in AAA in 2020 while one of their positions on the field is a black hole.

[Second Base]

12 minutes ago, jessecrall said:

You look for redundancies. Do we need Adell AND Marsh? Not with Upton and Trout already locked in. Do we need Rengifo AND Jahmai Jones? Nice to have insurance but no. If you sign a legit starter this offseason, can you afford to give up either Canning or Suarez? Sure. Ideally, you hold on to the one with the most upside and let other teams bet on growth. Here's hoping it rolls that way. But it does this team no good to have Rengifo on the bench and Marsh tearing it up in AAA in 2020 while one of their positions on the field is a black hole.

You'll need Adell and Marsh if Trout leaves, because they'll not only need to take care of the outfield, but they'll be inexpensive enough that the Angels would use that 34 million Trout was making to try and pay someone about half as good as Trout to play for us, so that we don't sink into a hole of mediocrity. 

And Rengifo is completely necessary too. If his breakout is real, sure, Jahmai Jones still might start over him at 2B. But that's hardly a sure thing. Rengifo might still be our starting 2B. But what about 3B? No one thinks Cozart is the player he was in 2017. He was never that guy before and will probably never be him again. So we'd need a 3B, and while your first reaction might be Taylor Ward, if Rengifo is outplaying him, this team wouldn't hesitate to move Rengifo across the diamond. Or what if Andrelton Simmons doesn't sign an extension and moves elsewhere. While Rengifo cant pick it at SS like Fletcher can, he's a better hitter and runner, so he could definitely start at SS. Or here's one way out of LF. Let's say Albert retires, or agrees to take a bench spot and we need a 1B. If Justin Upton moves to 1B, we could suddenly see Rengifo moving out to LF. Sure it wouldn't be his natural position, but with athleticism like that, he should catch on quickly. Not the likeliest scenario, but it's just to show that there are a few different ways to get Rengifo into the lineup. 

I agree with you that you trade from a place of strength. I just don't think the Angels are there quite yet.

[jessecrall]

6 minutes ago, Second Base said:

You'll need Adell and Marsh if Trout leaves, because they'll not only need to take care of the outfield, but they'll be inexpensive enough that the Angels would use that 34 million Trout was making to try and pay someone about half as good as Trout to play for us, so that we don't sink into a hole of mediocrity. 

And Rengifo is completely necessary too. If his breakout is real, sure, Jahmai Jones still might start over him at 2B. But that's hardly a sure thing. Rengifo might still be our starting 2B. But what about 3B? No one thinks Cozart is the player he was in 2017. He was never that guy before and will probably never be him again. So we'd need a 3B, and while your first reaction might be Taylor Ward, if Rengifo is outplaying him, this team wouldn't hesitate to move Rengifo across the diamond. Or what if Andrelton Simmons doesn't sign an extension and moves elsewhere. While Rengifo cant pick it at SS like Fletcher can, he's a better hitter and runner, so he could definitely start at SS. Or here's one way out of LF. Let's say Albert retires, or agrees to take a bench spot and we need a 1B. If Justin Upton moves to 1B, we could suddenly see Rengifo moving out to LF. Sure it wouldn't be his natural position, but with athleticism like that, he should catch on quickly. Not the likeliest scenario, but it's just to show that there are a few different ways to get Rengifo into the lineup. 

I agree with you that you trade from a place of strength. I just don't think the Angels are there quite yet.

You're absolutely right but what you're saying will always be true. Contracts run out, players get hurt, veterans hit the wall. And the opposite perspective could be: Prospects seldom pan out, they're a gamble, they get hurt, they don't develop, they get to the majors and struggle and lose the value they had etc etc. I should note that I'd be reluctant to part with these guys. I'm not in any way saying we must trade them. Merely that the idea that we reflexively shouldn't is unwise. If the Marlins want a ransom for Realmuto, you hold. If they scare off other teams and their price drops, well...

[AngelsFanSince86]

27 minutes ago, floplag said:

Noone wants to trade anyone cause we need them.
Noone wants to sign anyone, cause they are too expensive and we cant afford it within our artificial budget, why bother anyway as the roster isnt good enough.
Whats it matter anyway when people are happy with 500 baseball as long as they get to watch Trout before he leaves.
What else is there to say, shut the forum down and well see everyone in ST 21.

Thats not true.  You are just impatient.  You can't ignore that this team has many holes and then jump the gun to upgrade one of them.  Happy with .500 baseball?  You think everyone advocating to hold steady with our prospects is actually happy with .500 baseball?  Your attitude is in line with Dipoto.  He wanted to win now.  So he traded all prospects away when he could to upgrade the ML roster, signed Albert freakin Pujols, signed Josh freakin Hamilton, traded for Grienke.  What did that get the Angels?  One post season appearance and zero post season wins.  And it got us here.  It left us having to be patient with .500 ball while the farm develops and our (finally) competent GM plays the long game so that we can one day watch the Angels prosper for many years.  

Personally I struggle with this because I get excited at the thought of trading for guys like Kluber and Realmuto.  But you can't honestly assess that and think that is a good thing for the team.  You can't honestly say that the Angels are a catcher or starting pitcher away from being on the Astros level.  Thats the kind of move you make to finally one up the Astros, but the Angels aren't even close right now.  The Astros have utility/bench guys who are more productive than some of the Angels starters.  That is because they let their farm develop.    Trading for Verlander when you are already in first place is completely different than trading for Kluber when you just finished in fourth.

[AngelsFanSince86]

40 minutes ago, jessecrall said:

You look for redundancies. Do we need Adell AND Marsh? Not with Upton and Trout already locked in. Do we need Rengifo AND Jahmai Jones? Nice to have insurance but no. If you sign a legit starter this offseason, can you afford to give up either Canning or Suarez? Sure. Ideally, you hold on to the one with the most upside and let other teams bet on growth. Here's hoping it rolls that way. But it does this team no good to have Rengifo on the bench and Marsh tearing it up in AAA in 2020 while one of their positions on the field is a black hole.

Yes actually we do.  Theoretically you trade from an area of strength, but you only do it when making that trade makes your already complete team that much stronger.  You can't guarantee which prospects will pan out.  What if Adell is actually somewhat of a flop/solid 4th OFer type, but we traded Marsh away only to have him turn out to be the solid everyday player?  Regarding Suarez and Canning:  what in the past several years of Angels baseball has lead you to believe that one farm pitcher is enough depth for this team?  Seriously?..."Second Base" pointed out a few other things as well.  Angels do not have enough depth yet.  Honestly, I was all down for Angels trading for some of these names that have been floating around, but the more I hear arguments against it the more I realize that is just me wanting something to be excited about and being impatient.  Angels need to hold steady and only use prospects in circumstances like the Simmons trade.  That made sense because of the years and money on Simmons contract.  If Eppler can pull off another one of those I'm all for it.  Otherwise, lets wait until the team can compete on its own and then make the big splash FA/trades to solidify the team as one of the best.

[jessecrall]

9 minutes ago, AngelsFanSince86 said:

Yes actually we do.  Theoretically you trade from an area of strength, but you only do it when making that trade makes your already complete team that much stronger.  You can't guarantee which prospects will pan out.  What if Adell is actually somewhat of a flop/solid 4th OFer type, but we traded Marsh away only to have him turn out to be the solid everyday player?  Regarding Suarez and Canning:  what in the past several years of Angels baseball has lead you to believe that one farm pitcher is enough depth for this team?  Seriously?..."Second Base" pointed out a few other things as well.  Angels do not have enough depth yet.  Honestly, I was all down for Angels trading for some of these names that have been floating around, but the more I hear arguments against it the more I realize that is just me wanting something to be excited about and being impatient.  Angels need to hold steady and only use prospects in circumstances like the Simmons trade.  That made sense because of the years and money on Simmons contract.  If Eppler can pull off another one of those I'm all for it.  Otherwise, lets wait until the team can compete on its own and then make the big splash FA/trades to solidify the team as one of the best.

We have: Skaggs, Heaney, Shoemaker, Barria, Pena, Ramirez, Meyer, Tropeano, Canning, Suarez & 1-2 likely acquisitions. Maybe Sandoval, as well. Plus Ohtani in 2020. Bridwell if things get really bad. Will Suarez be better than Barria? Or Pena? Maybe. Maybe not. If he can bring in a proven quantity, you look into moving him. If he can't, you don't. Understand, I'm not saying you HAVE to trade any of these people. Just that it doesn't make sense to not consider your options. You talk about depth but prospects move up, guys get picked up from the waiver wire, the front office will surely sign some more utility guys or even a Marwin Gonzalez/Daniel Descalco type. The team will change.

[floplag]

56 minutes ago, AngelsFanSince86 said:

Thats not true.  You are just impatient.  You can't ignore that this team has many holes and then jump the gun to upgrade one of them.  Happy with .500 baseball?  You think everyone advocating to hold steady with our prospects is actually happy with .500 baseball?  Your attitude is in line with Dipoto.  He wanted to win now.  So he traded all prospects away when he could to upgrade the ML roster, signed Albert freakin Pujols, signed Josh freakin Hamilton, traded for Grienke.  What did that get the Angels?  One post season appearance and zero post season wins.  And it got us here.  It left us having to be patient with .500 ball while the farm develops and our (finally) competent GM plays the long game so that we can one day watch the Angels prosper for many years.  

Personally I struggle with this because I get excited at the thought of trading for guys like Kluber and Realmuto.  But you can't honestly assess that and think that is a good thing for the team.  You can't honestly say that the Angels are a catcher or starting pitcher away from being on the Astros level.  Thats the kind of move you make to finally one up the Astros, but the Angels aren't even close right now.  The Astros have utility/bench guys who are more productive than some of the Angels starters.  That is because they let their farm develop.    Trading for Verlander when you are already in first place is completely different than trading for Kluber when you just finished in fourth.

I've never once said go ham spend 250M, sell the farm trade everyone win now screw the future.   Not once.  Ive agreed with everyone that says we need balance, ive agreed it takes a mix of farm/fa/trades/cost controlled guys, ive agreed with every point save for one, why it cant be now as easily as 21.  Ive suggested a simply plan that has maybe 1 trade... 1.  the rest is all FA, 4 guys that puts us in the post season mix right now and give Trout/Simmons a reason to believe..  Many others have done the same exercise including some of you 21 or bust guys.

We can fix #1 without killing #2, continue to build #3 over the next few years, Extend Trout/Simmons to solve #4 and the rest is moot.  Its right there right now in the deepest FA class and group of guys available in trade that i can remember, almost ever.  There is absolutely no reason we cant have it both ways, none.  

Why is it so terrible to expect them to make that effort now instead of simply accepting 500 ball for 3 years for no logical reason that the lady up the street with the crystal ball couldnt even predict?   Why is wanting to not waste the prime of 2 of the best position players in the game today a bad idea?  This wait plan could easily go south and we end up with no Trout, no Simmons, a group of average ball players and Adell in 21 with Upton in his last years and Pujols on a walker.  Adell isnt going to carry this club is Trout cant even do it.   Thats to pathetic a situation to even think about and equally as possible as the pipedream im being asked to accept on faith.

[kevinb]

3 hours ago, UndertheHalo said:

Great post Doc.  The Angels need to be looking to add as much talent as possible at this point and be less concerned with winning in 2019.  Whether that’s being opportunistic with the waivers or rule 5 guys or identifying a player that other clubs have given up on.  Those are the moves that will really move the needle for the Angels.  And of course, good gets in the draft and international markets.  With some luck the Angels have enough to compete for a wild card anyway.  Especially if Eppler does well this offseason.  

If the opportunity is there the one guy I would go after is Realmuto as I’ve said before in other threads. The difference there being that he’s relatively young, obviously very good, and most importantly the Angels don’t have internal answers at the position.  Realmuto I believe, genuinely does accelerate the Angels efforts to legitimately compete with the serious teams in the AL.  For him I would ok with trading players out of the top 10, but not Adell.  Otherwise, I am loathe to trade any of the Angels upper echelon guys.  In most all circumstances. 

If there is no concern about winning in 2019 there should be zero concern about spending the 30 million dollars of free space. Let the kids play and save the cash. Fast forward to 2020. 

[Docwaukee]

26 minutes ago, floplag said:

I've never once said go ham spend 250M, sell the farm trade everyone win now screw the future.   Not once.  Ive agreed with everyone that says we need balance, ive agreed it takes a mix of farm/fa/trades/cost controlled guys, ive agreed with every point save for one, why it cant be now as easily as 21.  Ive suggested a simply plan that has maybe 1 trade... 1.  the rest is all FA, 4 guys that puts us in the post season mix right now and give Trout/Simmons a reason to believe..  Many others have done the same exercise including some of you 21 or bust guys.

We can fix #1 without killing #2, continue to build #3 over the next few years, Extend Trout/Simmons to solve #4 and the rest is moot.  Its right there right now in the deepest FA class and group of guys available in trade that i can remember, almost ever.  There is absolutely no reason we cant have it both ways, none.  

Why is it so terrible to expect them to make that effort now instead of simply accepting 500 ball for 3 years for no logical reason that the lady up the street with the crystal ball couldnt even predict?   Why is wanting to not waste the prime of 2 of the best position players in the game today a bad idea?  This wait plan could easily go south and we end up with no Trout, no Simmons, a group of average ball players and Adell in 21 with Upton in his last years and Pujols on a walker.  Adell isnt going to carry this club is Trout cant even do it.   Thats to pathetic a situation to even think about and equally as possible as the pipedream im being asked to accept on faith.

that one trade could set the farm back significantly for the reasons I gave.  We're not where we need to be to absorb that yet.  

There's just not enough talent yet.  At the major league level or on the farm.  Or at least that's my opinion.  We'll see if Billy feels the same way soon enough.  

[Docwaukee]

31 minutes ago, Kevinb said:

If there is no concern about winning in 2019 there should be zero concern about spending the 30 million dollars of free space. Let the kids play and save the cash. Fast forward to 2020. 

while that wouldn't bother me a ton, there's probably quite a few fans that aren't as avid who would jump ship on their tix if they didn't put out some effort.  I would actually take it a step further and see what offers I get on Skaggs.  If I can get a SP prospect that profiles as a front line starter plus another position player or pitching prospect, I'm thinking real hard on that .  The for this year, I back fill it with a 1yr deal for a back end starter.  

[AngelsFanSince86]

1 hour ago, floplag said:

I've never once said go ham spend 250M, sell the farm trade everyone win now screw the future.   Not once.  Ive agreed with everyone that says we need balance, ive agreed it takes a mix of farm/fa/trades/cost controlled guys, ive agreed with every point save for one, why it cant be now as easily as 21.  Ive suggested a simply plan that has maybe 1 trade... 1.  the rest is all FA, 4 guys that puts us in the post season mix right now and give Trout/Simmons a reason to believe..  Many others have done the same exercise including some of you 21 or bust guys.

We can fix #1 without killing #2, continue to build #3 over the next few years, Extend Trout/Simmons to solve #4 and the rest is moot.  Its right there right now in the deepest FA class and group of guys available in trade that i can remember, almost ever.  There is absolutely no reason we cant have it both ways, none.  

Why is it so terrible to expect them to make that effort now instead of simply accepting 500 ball for 3 years for no logical reason that the lady up the street with the crystal ball couldnt even predict?   Why is wanting to not waste the prime of 2 of the best position players in the game today a bad idea?  This wait plan could easily go south and we end up with no Trout, no Simmons, a group of average ball players and Adell in 21 with Upton in his last years and Pujols on a walker.  Adell isnt going to carry this club is Trout cant even do it.   Thats to pathetic a situation to even think about and equally as possible as the pipedream im being asked to accept on faith.

Alright, the Dipoto example was a bit extreme.  

Well let me ask you this:  what 4 guys would we need to be in the postseason mix? 

Remember: we need a catcher, a 1B (yes, Pujols is here to stay and thats a major problem that likely isn't going away this year but it doesn't negate the fact that we need one long term), 2B or 3B (Cozart and Fletcher have upside but are both question marks with the bat.  If they are both solid then that just means we need a good utility IFer), ace SP, reliable middle rotation SP, solid 4th OFer, Closer and long reliever. And this is assuming Calhoun plays closer to his second half then his first half.  

Long reliever can possibly come from rotation depth and two of 2B, 3B, and utility IF will be covered by Fletcher and Cozart so just one of those needs to filled.  That still leaves 8 positions that need upgrades in some capacity to be a real contender. 

So again: what 4 players do you propose, for discussion sake, that we go out and get?  I'd like to hear a legitimate proposal as to how the Angels can use their current assets (money and prospects) to become a contender while not sacrificing the future.

And as an aside: nobody is asking you to accept a pipedream.  Holding onto prospects and trading away ML talent for prospects instead of the reverse is a major part of why the Cubs, Astros, Yankees, Dodgers, etc.  are all successful.  Its not a pipedream, it is a proven strategy.  Those teams success is built on homegrown talent.  Hell, take the A's for example.  They come out of nowhere every few years because all they do is hoard prospects and trade their stars for more. 

Edit: Thought I would look this up to see.  Despite consistently having one of the lowest payrolls in baseball and not signing high priced FAs or trading away much prospect depth (as far as I know), the A's have had 9 postseason berths since (and including) 2000.  The Angels have 7 despite having one of the highest payrolls during that span.  2002 was the last time their payroll was in the bottom half.  

Edited November 10, 2018 by AngelsFanSince86

[SlappyUtilityMIF]

5 hours ago, Second Base said:

Let's say Albert retires, or agrees to take a bench spot and we need a 1B. If Justin Upton moves to 1B, we could suddenly see Rengifo moving out to LF. 

I loved your reply overall. The J UP to 1st made me laugh like a elementary school kid after his friends made fart noises!

J UP has problems catching fly balls....how is he going to do catching throws?...J UP is our future DH or dealt in the future for a couple low level prospects or a prospect and a suspect.....

[Stradling]

Am I the only one who thinks this isn’t really that deep of a free agent class?  Sure it has two absolute studs, that the Angels have no interest in.   It has two nice starters but neither are aces.  Then it has a ton of starters that will get one and two year deals.  It has guys like Mous who over played his hand last year.  Murphy who’s coming off a down year.  Donaldson, ditto.  DJ Who’s really good, at Coors.  I like Jed Lowrie.   It’s got a really good closer that our GM won’t pursue.  It’s also got a few players that were either studs in the post season but completely average prior (Eovaldi, Kelly) or flops in the post season (Grandall). 

What it feels like is it’s got a lot of players that could bounce back or could be in decline (Miller, Gio, Donaldson, Murphy, DJ, Lynn). 

[Angel Oracle]

3 hours ago, SlappyUtilityMIF said:

I loved your reply overall. The J UP to 1st made me laugh like a elementary school kid after his friends made fart noises!

J UP has problems catching fly balls....how is he going to do catching throws?...J UP is our future DH or dealt in the future for a couple low level prospects or a prospect and a suspect.....

It is different judging a ball hit over your head, vs taking throws at 1B.

it’s actually not a bad idea to move Upton and his solid albeit slumpridden offense to 1B, especially if Trout stays and once Adell and Marsh are both ready.

Either 1B, or yes they trade him by July 2020 when Adell and Marsh are likely both here, and then move at least half of Upton’s remaining salary through 2022.

[Inside Pitch]

10 hours ago, jessecrall said:

You look for redundancies. Do we need Adell AND Marsh? Not with Upton and Trout already locked in. Do we need Rengifo AND Jahmai Jones? Nice to have insurance but no. If you sign a legit starter this offseason, can you afford to give up either Canning or Suarez? Sure. Ideally, you hold on to the one with the most upside and let other teams bet on growth. Here's hoping it rolls that way. But it does this team no good to have Rengifo on the bench and Marsh tearing it up in AAA in 2020 while one of their positions on the field is a black hole.

What you are calling a redundancy is what teams refer to as depth.   Redundancy is needed in order to overcome the biggest threat to a farm system.... Attrition.   Kendrys, Kotchman...   Casilla, Wood, Aybar....  Amarista, Callaspo, Kendrick...   Wilson, Mathis, Napoli ....even Conger.  D-Mac, Matthew Brown......   Guys wash out, guys get traded, guys get hurt.   The depth isn't there yet... That's a legit concern/reality.

7 hours ago, Kevinb said:

If there is no concern about winning in 2019 there should be zero concern about spending the 30 million dollars of free space. Let the kids play and save the cash. Fast forward to 2020. 

It's not like the monies saved today will be spent in 2020... For whatever reason they have a set budget year to year... I'd much rather see them spend all the way up to their budget restraints on a yearly basis than the alternative.  spend that money, test out their analytics systems, get that shit sorted out and then still be able to spend it more wisely when the time comes to make that push.  The trick is not to be saddled with bad contracts when the team's better positioned to compete... They might even find they are able to compete as they do, ala the 2018 A's.

When push comes to shove, we don't have a clue what they will do yet, or what the competition will do...   People act like the Angels can execute their plans in a vacuum...  Those teams above us will likely try to improve as well and that's a huge factor.   Does that mean you don't still try?  No, but you don't go all in when you're holding a pair and the table is showing a full house or a straight.  

 

Edited November 10, 2018 by Inside Pitch

[eaterfan]

4 minutes ago, Inside Pitch said:

What you are calling a redundancy is what teams refer to as depth.   Redundancy is needed in order to overcome the biggest threat to a farm system.... Attrition.   Kendrys, Kotchman...   Casilla, Wood, Aybar....  Amarista, Callaspo, Kendrick...   Wilson, Mathis, Napoli ....even Conger.  D-Mac, Matthew Brown......   Guys wash out, guys get traded, guys get hurt.   The depth isn't there yet... That's a legit concern/reality.

It's not like the monies saved today will be spent in 2020... For whatever reason they have set a budget year to year... I'd much rather see them spend all the way up to their budget restraints on a yearly basis than the alternative.  spend that money, test out their analytics systems, get that shit sorted out and then still be able to spend it more wisely when the time comes to make that push.  The trick is not to be saddled with bad contracts when the team's better positioned to compete... They might even find they are able to compete as they do, ala the 2018 A's.

When push comes to shove, we don't have a clue what they will do yet, or what the competition will do...   People act like the Angels can execute their plans in a vacuum...  Those teams above us will likely try to improve as well and that's a huge factor.   Does that mean you don't still try?  No, but you don't go all in when you're holding a pair and the table is showing a full house or a straight.  

 

Great analysis. This is how I feel as well. I wouldn't mind saving the money if it actually did increase the budget for the future, but if it's not then we might as well roll the dice. I don't want to lock in any long-term contracts, but sign some guys who could get us to the playoffs if things break right.

[Inside Pitch]

42 minutes ago, Stradling said:

Am I the only one who thinks this isn’t really that deep of a free agent class?  Sure it has two absolute studs, that the Angels have no interest in.   It has two nice starters but neither are aces.  Then it has a ton of starters that will get one and two year deals.  It has guys like Mous who over played his hand last year.  Murphy who’s coming off a down year.  Donaldson, ditto.  DJ Who’s really good, at Coors.  I like Jed Lowrie.   It’s got a really good closer that our GM won’t pursue.  It’s also got a few players that were either studs in the post season but completely average prior (Eovaldi, Kelly) or flops in the post season (Grandall). 

What it feels like is it’s got a lot of players that could bounce back or could be in decline (Miller, Gio, Donaldson, Murphy, DJ, Lynn). 

It's top heavy then there are a bunch of value plays -- potentially a lot of value depending on how the market goes. 

After what happened last year Im betting there is some hesitation right now -- the news that the Dodgers may sit out the big contract plays and that the Yankees aren't looking to improve their position players might play a factor as well. The Cubs are maxed out and have talked about sitting this FA out.  Boston is already pretty close to maxed out contract wise, and they are starring down at Mookie Betts, Bogaerts, free agencies in 2020 and a JD Martinez opt out next year.   The Orioles are done -- the Met's are in the middle of transitioning and may choose to focus on extending their own players before jumping hard into FA -- but they may be a wild card given the new dude.  With a lot of teams taking hard looks at themselves and deciding they can't really push, that too may end up limiting the FA field and thus make for an interesting market -- plus all the teams in the middle that may look to trade off for future assets. 

The Phillies, White Sox, and Houston might be looking to spend.   The Padres too.  But as a whole a lot of the big spenders have legit reasons why they should hold the line.   it's gonna be fun to watch it all play out.

[Inside Pitch]

5 minutes ago, eaterfan said:

Great analysis. This is how I feel as well. I wouldn't mind saving the money if it actually did increase the budget for the future, but if it's not then we might as well roll the dice. I don't want to lock in any long-term contracts, but sign some guys who could get us to the playoffs if things break right.

Saving money now likely just means a bigger profit for Arte -- I'd sooner have them hire 20 more analytics dudes than see Arte get richer, so, I'm hoping they spend as much as they are willing to in order to test out their internal systems.