Season low point ?

[nate]

49 minutes ago, The Boogie Man said:

I didn’t watch the game, but I know Fontana failed to get two bunts down.   I’ll tell you that I’m not a fan of the sacrifice bunt, but I’m perfectly fine with it when it’s to advance a runner to third, to put the tying, go ahead, winning run or insurance run on third with less than two outs in the bottom of the 8th or later.  

It was with a runner on first and no outs, it was literally the worst possible time to do it statistically.

[disarcina]

7 and a half back.

Goodnight Irene.

Gene Autry used to sing that -- might be the Angels theme song for the second half starting now.

[Vegas Halo Fan]

3 hours ago, GrittyVeterans said:

I really shudder to think how awful this team would be if they didn't have a generational superstar on their team. 

It's not a pleasant thought

Without Trout, we're the Florida Marlins.

[UndertheHalo]

20 minutes ago, Vegas Halo Fan said:

Without Trout, we're the Florida Marlins.

Not that bad !

[Puget Sound Angel]

Season low point? Hell we got three more months to build on.

[Griffey's Corner]

1 hour ago, nate said:

It was with a runner on first and no outs, it was literally the worst possible time to do it statistically.

Statistically speaking it would be better not to sacrifice in that situation. Instead steal 2nd base is maybe 80% chance of success... and than with no outs either do 2 sacrifices or hope for 1 hit and a fast runner.

 

To sacrifice over and give up the out in that situation. You still have to get a hit in the next 2 at bats.... if the players are average Angels meaning a .249 batting average than the odds of even scoring is still only around 50%.... assuming the sacrifice was successful in the first place..... which is probably around 70%... so the odds of scoring that way has been reduced to around 35%..... which is about the average in any given inning without having the lead off batter reaching first base. So by trying to sacrifice we forfeited the statistical advantage. Normally when a lead off batter reaches 1st base than the odds of that batter coming around to score is over 50%.

 

Since the stolen base, based on the Angels stealing vs. sacrificing they have been converting at a much higher percentage rate in stealing a base, that would have been the better way to go.... and it than would give them 3 opportunities not 2 to score the runner from 2nd.

 

So yes you are correct and the right call from a mathematical standpoint would have been much higher to score with trying a stolen base vs. a sacrifice. Or even just swinging away would also be a much higher chance of scoring vs. a sacrifice.