Hitters over 30

[IheartLA]

So i took a look at some numbers of the top 30 WAR leaders for hitters over their combined stats the last two seasons (2016+2017). Only 7 out of 30 players were in their thirties for both seasons.

#6 Donaldson (30,31) - 3B

#8 Votto (32,33) - 1B

#11 Turner (31,32) - 3B

#18 Murphy (31,32) - 2B

#20 Cano (33,34) - 2B

#21 Beltre (37,38) - 3B

#29 Kinsler (33,34) - 2B

The other 23 were at least in their twenties for 2016. The first thing you notice is all are infielders. MLB really is becoming a young man's game. It's hard to see a lot of thirty year olds in the leaderboards. I can kind of see why front offices look at 30-32 as basically the end of a player's elite level unless you're a freak like Beltre. 

It seems like this game is becoming filled with younger and younger players, especially in the outfield. I honestly don't see Harper getting $400M next year, he probably won't even get the $325M Stanton got. Even ten years takes him through age 35. OF prospects are everywhere, even our system has three good ones.

If you went to college you're definitely not getting to FA until 31-32ish. Meaning in today's game it's going to be really hard to get paid. If you came out of HS you'd be around 27-29ish, you might get a 5-7 year deal once you hit FA. I don't think even Trout will get anything beyond age 36ish, and he's the GOAT.

[Hubs]

Ok, I understand your premise, but looking only at WAR isn't probably the best here, as players are penalized when they play a position like 1B or DH or even the corner OF, where a lot of older players finish their career. 27-32 is the peak of a player's career, that's agreed. And some players will have difficulty getting longer term deals if they want something past this range. This has happened this offseason.

Except, the players you mentioned in Harper and Trout you got dead wrong.

You have to overpay on the back end of the deal to get a guy like Harper or Trout for their primes. Harper is just 25 and Trout 26. Trout will be going into his age 29 season when his current contract expires, while Harper will be going into his age 26.

Stanton's deal is the largest currently because he was years away from free agency, and they signed him for 13 seasons. Then he played the 15, 16, and 17 seasons on  that deal leaving the majority of the money, something in the 280-290 range left and 10 years.

Harper tops the AAV for sure, but not the length. 35*8 = 280, So I could see 8/300, I guess, but I also have difficulty seeing 400. More likely he goes somewhere for 10/340 or something.

Trout though, has a chance. He could get a 400M deal the day after Harper signs for 340, effectively replacing his last two seasons. But if he waits until FA, it may be tough to top that $400M Mark. Because you'd be paying him into his late 30's.