2018-19 Free Agency Market, Angels involvement?

[jordan]

I've been wondering if the Angels will even be in play for the top players in next year's market.  I know the needs will be 2B or 3B and possibly 1B, and as always a SP and bullpen pieces would be nice.  But does anyone think Eppler will go after Harper, Machado, Donaldson, or Kershaw?  And I guess my other question is, if we aren't a player for any next year, should we try and get what we can (ie Darvish, Lynn, or Cobb) this year.  I leave out Arrieta because I'm just not convinced he has much left in the tank.  I could be wrong, but I feel better about these other three. 

 

I'm listing the top 15 FA for next year's class.  Any chance the Halo's wind up with any of them?    I think we really need to get a solid lefty bat.  Could be Blackmon to take over RF?  Then trade a package of our OF prospects for a top of the rotation SP?  I don't see Harper being a target, not with the payday forthcoming for Trout.  Richards is a crap shoot at this point.  I'd like Angels to re-sign him if he is showing to have a strong year.  Perhaps by the All-star break, if he has done well, Eppler can nab him before he hits the market.

Otherwise, some nice bullpen pieces like Miller or Kimbrel would be a thrill to have.

http://www.sportingnews.com/mlb/news/mlb-free-agents-2019-bryce-harper-manny-machado-kershaw-donaldson-blackmon-keuchel/1uh9zucnbll541wjinjt60nfz3

1. Bryce Harper, 26 years old by April 2019

2. Manny Machado, 26

3. Clayton Kershaw, 31

4. Josh Donaldson, 33

5. Charlie Blackmon, 32

6. Dallas Keuchel, 31

7. Andrew Miller, 33

8. Craig Kimbrel, 30

9. Brian Dozier, 31

10. Andrew McCutchen, 32

11. A.J. Pollock, 31

12. Drew Pomeranz, 30

13. Elvis Andrus, 30

14. Daniel Murphy, 34

15. Marwin Gonzalez, 30

Best of the rest: Zach Britton (30) needs a healthy bounce-back year to re-establish his status as an elite closer — for example, he allowed 39 hits in 37 1/3 innings last year after allowing just 38 in 67 innings in 2016 — but if he does that, teams will be clamoring for his services. Fellow closers Cody Allen (30), A.J. Ramos (32), Kelvin Herrera (29) and David Robertson (34) could land solid deals, too. As for starting pitchers, Patrick Corbin (29) and Gio Gonzalez (33) are coming off excellent 2017 seasons, and Garrett Richards (31) can jump up in the rankings with a healthy 2018.

Nelson Cruz will be 38 in 2019, but he looks like he could be a productive DH well into his 40s, based on his past couple of seasons in Seattle. Rock-solid Adam Jones (33) will be a great addition to a contender’s outfield, and D.J. LeMahieu (30) should have a couple of solid seasons left in his second-base bat.

[NorCal Halo]

I hope as well that the lack of movement now for this year as well as the one-year of Kinsler means that Eppler is looking for large improvements for next year.  If not, then arghhhh!

[tdawg87]

Way too early to tell. 

The pitching market next year is weak, so I don't see much involvement there, barring a complete disaster. 

They aren't getting Harper. 

[Troll Daddy]

Hopefully the FO will have a clear picture of Trout’s intentions by the end of the 2018 season. 

Extension? FA? 

[Revad]

4 minutes ago, Troll Daddy said:

Hopefully the FO will have a clear picture of Trout’s intentions by the end of the 2018 season. 

Extension? FA? 

If that's an either or choice, sign another big name or extend Trout, I'd go with Trout of course.  But both are possible.  The Angels are an attractive destination at this point and Donaldson is a very good fit if the price is not outrageous.  

[totdprods]

I honestly don't think the Angels will be big players in free agency next offseason. 

If the Angels do wind up dealing from our OF prospect depth (maybe for SP help), especially closer guys like Jones or Hermosillo, I could see a stop-gap RF improvement like McCutchen, Jones on a shorter 2-yr deal. 

If any of our power guys like Pujols, Upton, Cozart, Calhoun, or Ohtani wind up not doing much power-wise, I could see them looking at Dozier or Donaldson. 

[Hubs]

The two guys I want to stay away from are Machado and Donaldson. I don't really get the Machado hype, he has great counting stats, and his defense is great at the hot corner, plus he's young, but his numbers are basically not in the same class as Harper and Trout.

He's basically Adrian Beltre before he got his Mariners contract. Or Justin Upton like.

Harper and Trout are generational talents. Harper has slightly less WAR than Machado, but that's because of defense and injury.

They are basically the same age with Trout being one year older.

Trout has 55 WAR. Harper had 26ish and Machado nearly 28.

Donaldson is still productive, but old at 33 for a long term deal.

 

If the Angels were to go after one of these top 15 guys I would like Harper, then Blackmon, then Dozier. I'd expect Harper to break the bank, whereas, Blackmon should get somewhere between Justin Upton money and Mark Texiera money, which is more palatable long term.

Blackmon at 5/140, or Harper at 10/350?

 

 

[UndertheHalo]

I think they should go after Lemaheiu.  Who should be on this top 15 list ahead of Marwin Gonzalez, Murphy and Andrus.  He’s pretty perfect for the Angels. 

[krAbs]

I doubt we grab an outfielder - too much talent coming up through the system in the next few years to justify it, imo.

I think we make an offer to every infielder on this list, and end up with a defensively talented, but slightly underrated, option at either 2b or 3b. Depending on how the year goes, we also go for a 1b.

 

edit- its also possible we fork out money and go with Machado. It would be a lot of fun to watch Cozart, Machado, and Simmons playing together.

[totdprods]

13 minutes ago, UndertheHalo said:

I think they should go after Lemaheiu.  Who should be on this top 15 list ahead of Marwin Gonzalez, Murphy and Andrus.  He’s pretty perfect for the Angels. 

He's my fav. Could mirror the Cozart deal. 

[eaterfan]

34 minutes ago, Hubs said:

The two guys I want to stay away from are Machado and Donaldson. I don't really get the Machado hype, he has great counting stats, and his defense is great at the hot corner, plus he's young, but his numbers are basically not in the same class as Harper and Trout.

He's basically Adrian Beltre before he got his Mariners contract. Or Justin Upton like.

Harper and Trout are generational talents. Harper has slightly less WAR than Machado, but that's because of defense and injury.

They are basically the same age with Trout being one year older.

Trout has 55 WAR. Harper had 26ish and Machado nearly 28.

Donaldson is still productive, but old at 33 for a long term deal.

 

If the Angels were to go after one of these top 15 guys I would like Harper, then Blackmon, then Dozier. I'd expect Harper to break the bank, whereas, Blackmon should get somewhere between Justin Upton money and Mark Texiera money, which is more palatable long term.

Blackmon at 5/140, or Harper at 10/350?

 

 

I think comparing Machado to Upton is really unfair. Machado's OPS+ has been above 130 2 of the last 3 seasons. That's the same as Upton in his good years. I assume you bring up counting stats to say that Machado is a product of Camden Yards. OPS+ is a park adjusted rate stat.

He also plays premium defense at a defensive position and is much younger. He has played 4 full seasons and put up a WAR over 6.5 in 3 of the 4. Upton has put up a WAR over 6 once. He's never put up a 6.5. Trout has ruined everyone's definition of greatness. Anyone who puts up those numbers consistently is a generational talent. 

[Revad]

If Machado would play 3rd for the Angels and could be fit in the budget, hell yes.  I like Donaldson, despite his age, on a shorter contract.  I think Machado is great but factoring in the cost can see how Upton could be compared.

[Hubs]

1 minute ago, eaterfan said:

I think comparing Machado to Upton is really unfair. Machado's OPS+ has been above 130 2 of the last 3 seasons. That's the same as Upton. He also plays premium defense at a defensive position and is much younger. He has played 4 full seasons and put up a WAR over 6.5 in 3 of the 4. Upton has put up a WAR over 6 once. He's never put up a 6.5. Trout has ruined everyone's definition of greatness. Anyone who puts up those numbers consistently is a generational talent. 

To be clear, I meant Upton when he first was swapped to the Braves. 25 years old, had a 6.1 WAR season, but was coming off a down year. I think he's a really good player, I just don't think he's in the upper echelon with Trout and then Harper. IF Harper were healthy he'd have probably closer to 35 WAR.

I'm just more comfortable with a .870 OPS player being included with the other really good players of the game, like Marcell Ozuna.

Machado had the 81st highest OPS in 2017. He was at .783. His best showing was 26th in 2016 at .876.

Compare him to the best 3B, he's 5th in his best season by OPS, 4th by WAR.

As a SS, would you think his DRS carries him up to elite levels? Simmons had a .752 OPS last season. Slightly worse than Machado.

He'll look better as a SS, but he is not upper echelon yet, like Trout, Harper, etc.

 

 

[eaterfan]

2 minutes ago, Hubs said:

To be clear, I meant Upton when he first was swapped to the Braves. 25 years old, had a 6.1 WAR season, but was coming off a down year. I think he's a really good player, I just don't think he's in the upper echelon with Trout and then Harper. IF Harper were healthy he'd have probably closer to 35 WAR.

I'm just more comfortable with a .870 OPS player being included with the other really good players of the game, like Marcell Ozuna.

Machado had the 81st highest OPS in 2017. He was at .783. His best showing was 26th in 2016 at .876.

Compare him to the best 3B, he's 5th in his best season by OPS, 4th by WAR.

As a SS, would you think his DRS carries him up to elite levels? Simmons had a .752 OPS last season. Slightly worse than Machado.

He'll look better as a SS, but he is not upper echelon yet, like Trout, Harper, etc.

 

 

The only case to be made against Machado looks at 2017 and ignores virtually the entirety of the rest of his career. His bat still has some upside in it. And once again, Upton had one 6.1 WAR season at whatever point you wanted to count. Machado has already had 3 of 6.5 it better. It isn't a fluke. Even his worst season, this last year, he's a pretty darn good player. 

Fortunately, we'll get another year of data to see if 2017 was a blip or the new normal, but if he puts up his usual career numbers then he's a generational player.

[Hubs]

1 minute ago, eaterfan said:

The only case to be made against Machado looks at 2017 and ignores virtually the entirety of the rest of his career. His bat still has some upside in it. And once again, Upton had one 6.1 WAR season at whatever point you wanted to count. Machado has already had 3 of 6.5 it better. It isn't a fluke. Even his worst season, this last year, he's a pretty darn good player. 

Fortunately, we'll get another year of data to see if 2017 was a blip or the new normal, but if he puts up his usual career numbers then he's a generational player.

Machado had 1.0 dWAR in 2017. Quite a downturn from his 2013 hey day defensively where he managed a 4.3 dWAR. He has 11.1 dWAR.

I know he has had some MVP caliber WAR years, but I'd prefer Nolan Arenado or Kris Bryant to him.

I think he's great, don't get me wrong, he's one of the best players in baseball, but he is a bit overhyped to think he gets $300 Million. I can see a Robinson Cano contract, but Harper may get $100 M more than Machado.

We'll see how he does defensively at SS. I think it's going to hurt his value, because he won't have the elite defensive reputation after an average year (defensively) at SS.

I hope for his sake he looks elite defensively and also has a .900+OPS season.

 

[totdprods]

I think there's a chance Donaldson gets a bit overlooked in next year's market, or gets the same resistance guys are seeing this offseason, and winds up having to settle for less. Encarnacion's deal could be a template.

If the Angels experience a serious power outage - either Pujols falling flat, Cozart's year proving a fluke, Upton regressing - it wouldn't be a bad idea to lock in an infielder who has some thump. Personally, I still think they should explore signing Todd Frazier this offseason and replace Cron with him and use him as needed at the corners (infield and outfield) and maybe some at 2B.

[Angel Oracle]

Blackmon 5 years/$140 million after 2018????

1) He'll be 32 in 2019.   2) He had just a .786 road OPS in 2017.   3) He's only had two big seasons.  4)  Obviously benefits from Coors Canaveral.   5)  He's not the baserunner he was 2-3 years ago, 14-24 SBs in 2017 is meh.  

Maybe, I could see Colorado paying him a lot. 

[Chris]

Maybe a 2B like Dozier or LeMahieu.

Or possibly switch Cozart to 2B and look at 3B.

Too many variables on the pitching side.  We need to see if our guys can stay healthy and effective this year.

 

[Docwaukee]

I think Harper will be a Dodger and Machado will have many suitors but one won't be the halos.  It's just too restrictive for any team to have more than one 30+ mil player.  

Before we start eyeballing free agents for 2019, I think we need to figure out who we are in 2018.   There's a lot to like on paper, but you just never know where needs will emerge.   

A lot of questions need to be answered.  Fortunately, I think we have a decent amount of depth to overcome some sins.  

I really hope we extend Richards.  Otherwise, the rotation has the largest number of question marks.  But I think this is the year where two of Heaney, Skaggs, and Trop emerge in a big way.  So the starters declare themselves and give us confidence for 2019 but, again, GR will be a big part of that.  I don't think Eppler is ever going to spend on a bullpen unless a high end closer is the absolute very last piece and one becomes available on the cheap.  

Our OF is set for the next three years.  Even if Kole or Upton have an off year, they'll be back for 2019.  

So I see it coming down to an infield upgrade or two.  One is obvious in that Kinsler won't be back but what about 1b?  I think Eppler will treat 1b like he treats the BP or C.  He'll pound the undervalued pavement as opposed to going big.  So I like the LeMahieu idea, but I think we'll make a trade.  Finally getting Hernandez from Philly.  Or maybe Panik from SF.  I could also see someone like Donaldson over estimating his market and ending up with a lesser deal than expected.  

I can also see us making a move at the deadline this year to shore up a hole that's developed.  

 

[Angel Oracle]

23 hours ago, UndertheHalo said:

I think they should go after Lemaheiu.  Who should be on this top 15 list ahead of Marwin Gonzalez, Murphy and Andrus.  He’s pretty perfect for the Angels. 

He would make a solid leadoff guy for 2019 and beyond, and is one of the best defensive 2B in MLB.    Both Eppler trademarks (OBP/defense)...check

Would be just age 30 to start the 2019 season.  

Cozart could then settle in long term at 3B, until Maitan is ready?

3-4 years deal?  

I could see him being the only big name FA brought in a year from now.   All positions would be set, pretty much.   And signing big name/big money FA pitchers is not a smart decision.  

[UndertheHalo]

46 minutes ago, Angel Oracle said:

He would make a solid leadoff guy for 2019 and beyond, and is one of the best defensive 2B in MLB.    Both Eppler trademarks (OBP/defense)...check

Would be just age 30 to start the 2019 season.  

Cozart could then settle in long term at 3B, until Maitan is ready?

3-4 years deal?  

I could see him being the only big name FA brought in a year from now.   All positions would be set, pretty much.   And signing big name/big money FA pitchers is not a smart decision.  

Pretty much exactly how I look at it.