Machado at SS, lessen or increase his value?

[floplag]

I didnt see this mentioned aside from the fact that it was happening, but with the pending FA class he was already the #2 projects competing with Donaldson, does moving to SS help, or possibly hurt him?  

In terms of other FA the next SS would be Andrus.  Andrus put up a 4.0 WAR last season which beats Machados 3.5 as a 3B.  In fdact even Donaldson beat him in terms of WAR at 4.8.  

Assuming they go thru with this and its what he wants, clearly we have no use for a SS so it takes us out of it.  Also potentially takes most of the larger market teams out of it as most are set at SS.  

Seems to me he would have had a much larger market as a 3B.    Yes i know people can move but i cant help but wonder why this is being done, it seems counter productive as anything other than a "i can play multiple spots" marketing move.   

[AngelsLakersFan]

It really depends on if he is good at shortstop or not. If teams feel he can be good there he will get paid more by someone.

[WeatherWonk]

2 minutes ago, AngelsLakersFan said:

It really depends on if he is good at shortstop or not. If teams feel he can be good there he will get paid more by someone.

It increases his value, if he's good, because he can always go back to playing 3rd, if an interested team already has a SS. It basically makes him favorable to a team that has either a SS, 3rd baseman or one that needs both.

[LetsGoHalos]

I don't think Machado ever wanted to originally play 3B but was moved due to his size and ability to man the hot corner. 

I don't have exact stats but it does seem like 3B tends to shorten some careers due to injuries. Feels like David Wright and Eric Chavez come to mind in dealing with severe back problems. The move from 3B to SS seemed to have helped Cal Ripken Jr.

[Docwaukee]

1 minute ago, AngelsLakersFan said:

It really depends on if he is good at shortstop or not. If teams feel he can be good there he will get paid more by someone.

in limited opps he's been solid.  The fact that he can play a solid SS or GG 3rd makes him valuable.  If he limits his FA options to SS then it decreases his value.  If he considers both, he'll max out his value.  

[red321]

I don't really think it matters, his bat, offensive production, and age will dictate the huge payout he gets. 

[Dtwncbad]

There is only upside for him by doing this.  This adds the possibility that more teams will be bidding for him. . .teams that need a 3B and teams that need a SS.

[eaterfan]

It probably increases his value. He is a defensive outlier at 3B. The defensive components of WAR are adjusted so that a position move shouldn't impact WAR. But this breaks down for players at the extremes of the spectrum. This means really great players at premium positions may lose value if they move to a less demanding position. Like if you move Andrelton Simmons to 3B he'll be even more above average as a 3B, but at some point a 3B can only create so much defensive value. His bat will be less compared to average so his WAR will go down.

I think Machado's defensive value has exceeded the point where playing 3rd is adding to his value. I think he'll get more chances for outs at SS. Even though he'll be closer to an average player there, but his bat will play even better there.

Plus, what's the worst think that can happen if he moves to SS? He fails to play good defense. Teams will write off the 2018 season and still see him as the premier 3B on the market. If he succeeds he opens himself up to teams looking for a SS too. If he gets better as I predicted earlier then his value as a baseball player increases. 

I also think it's ridiculous to measure his market value by looking at one season of WAR. That's not even close to how any team will do it. 

[floplag]

1 hour ago, eaterfan said:

It probably increases his value. He is a defensive outlier at 3B. The defensive components of WAR are adjusted so that a position move shouldn't impact WAR. But this breaks down for players at the extremes of the spectrum. This means really great players at premium positions may lose value if they move to a less demanding position. Like if you move Andrelton Simmons to 3B he'll be even more above average as a 3B, but at some point a 3B can only create so much defensive value. His bat will be less compared to average so his WAR will go down.

I think Machado's defensive value has exceeded the point where playing 3rd is adding to his value. I think he'll get more chances for outs at SS. Even though he'll be closer to an average player there, but his bat will play even better there.

Plus, what's the worst think that can happen if he moves to SS? He fails to play good defense. Teams will write off the 2018 season and still see him as the premier 3B on the market. If he succeeds he opens himself up to teams looking for a SS too. If he gets better as I predicted earlier then his value as a baseball player increases. 

I also think it's ridiculous to measure his market value by looking at one season of WAR. That's not even close to how any team will do it. 

Interesting, so WAR matters for some players, but not others?  
Im very well aware that there are many variables in this situation, age comparison to Donaldson for example... but i find it hard to simply dismiss that as not close or part of the consideration in the age or analytics. 

[UndertheHalo]

I think it definitely increases his value.  If he demonstrates even average SS play in his return the the position it just proves that he’s a multi position player. 

[eaterfan]

24 minutes ago, floplag said:

Interesting, so WAR matters for some players, but not others?  
Im very well aware that there are many variables in this situation, age comparison to Donaldson for example... but i find it hard to simply dismiss that as not close or part of the consideration in the age or analytics. 

I'm not sure what you're saying. I didn't say WAR matters for some players but not for others. I'm just saying WAR isn't a perfect stat. It is generally a great tool for comparing players across positions and doing a does a pretty good job at predicting what value a player would produce even with a position change. I think it's a great way to get a baseline for what defensive value Cozart could bring at 3B. But it's important to realize that as you get closer to either end of the bell curve on true talent level defensively that defensive value from a position switch won't translate.

I also didn't say teams won't look at WAR or their in house version of it. They just wont' look at only one season's worth of info. Machado has played 4 full seasons so far. He's put up WARs of 6.7, 7.1, 6.7, and 3.5 in those 4 seasons. Teams aren't going to value Machado as a 3.5 WAR player. 

[floplag]

47 minutes ago, eaterfan said:

I'm not sure what you're saying. I didn't say WAR matters for some players but not for others. I'm just saying WAR isn't a perfect stat. It is generally a great tool for comparing players across positions and doing a does a pretty good job at predicting what value a player would produce even with a position change. I think it's a great way to get a baseline for what defensive value Cozart could bring at 3B. But it's important to realize that as you get closer to either end of the bell curve on true talent level defensively that defensive value from a position switch won't translate.

I also didn't say teams won't look at WAR or their in house version of it. They just wont' look at only one season's worth of info. Machado has played 4 full seasons so far. He's put up WARs of 6.7, 7.1, 6.7, and 3.5 in those 4 seasons. Teams aren't going to value Machado as a 3.5 WAR player. 

Even if he puts up another season in that range?
I agree its no perfect, no stat is really, but its probably the closest in predicting the overall performance of the squad based on comparative metrics.  
If he has another year in the 3s lets say, even if due to position swap or whatever, dont you think it would be a reach to expects him to suddenly be a 6 again? 

[eaterfan]

21 minutes ago, floplag said:

Even if he puts up another season in that range?
I agree its no perfect, no stat is really, but its probably the closest in predicting the overall performance of the squad based on comparative metrics.  
If he has another year in the 3s lets say, even if due to position swap or whatever, dont you think it would be a reach to expects him to suddenly be a 6 again? 

I agree it's the best stat. I'm just pointing out why I don't think a transition to short will probably help him increase his WAR or at least maintain it on the defensive side. I think if he has another down year offensively then it will certainly effect his value. But, at this time I think teams view him as the premier 3B available next season. Most of the reason for the drop in WAR last season was his offensive performance. I'm not sure it will bounce back. It may not, but if the offense doesn't bounce back it doesn't bounce back at either position. If his offense doesn't bounce back he'll at least have the excuse of moving to a new position if he moves to SS.

[Troll Daddy]

WAR Sucks 

Always has Always will

 

[floplag]

14 hours ago, eaterfan said:

I agree it's the best stat. I'm just pointing out why I don't think a transition to short will probably help him increase his WAR or at least maintain it on the defensive side. I think if he has another down year offensively then it will certainly effect his value. But, at this time I think teams view him as the premier 3B available next season. Most of the reason for the drop in WAR last season was his offensive performance. I'm not sure it will bounce back. It may not, but if the offense doesn't bounce back it doesn't bounce back at either position. If his offense doesn't bounce back he'll at least have the excuse of moving to a new position if he moves to SS.

See i disagree, other than age there is no statistical reason to suggest Machado is "the premier 3B" on the market over Donaldson.  Defensively yes Machado rates higher is defensive stats like dWAR have any real meaning. I guess he would have the nod for age alone, but its not a given.  That age is also going to have him expecting more years and a higher price tag.
SS wise his offense could allow him to over shadow Andrus maybe, but he isnt likely to be the better defender so he better put up big numbers with the bet and get back up to the higher WAR levels for that to make sense.  
I think its a risk, there are more good SS in the game than their are top tier 3B and most of the money teams arent looking for SS.  
Just my opinion, nothing more

[Stradling]

Machado will get MUCH more than Donaldson next off season even if he puts up another 3.5 WAR season.  It could very well be 2-3 times the amount he gets.  Being 7 years younger in free agency is a lifetime just ask Heyward.  

[floplag]

49 minutes ago, Stradling said:

Machado will get MUCH more than Donaldson next off season even if he puts up another 3.5 WAR season.  It could very well be 2-3 times the amount he gets.  Being 7 years younger in free agency is a lifetime just ask Heyward.  

As said, age would be the only determining factor.  
so the question becomes, is three times the cost worth it?
In the current paradigm that would seem to be a bit of a reach.  

[Stradling]

9 minutes ago, floplag said:

As said, age would be the only determining factor.  
so the question becomes, is three times the cost worth it?
In the current paradigm that would seem to be a bit of a reach.  

If I was running the team and I had to choose between giving a 33 year old a 5 year deal or giving a 26 year old a 13 year deal, I would either sign the 33 year old and hope for the best or I would go a completely different direction.  One thing is inevitable with both contracts, with Donaldson, you are absolutely paying for his decline.  With Machado you are absolutely buying his prime and more than likely his decline.  

I think the Donaldson contract will be something like 5 years $125 million.  I think we could see Machado get 12 years $360 million contract with a player opt out after year 3.  

[eaterfan]

2 hours ago, floplag said:

See i disagree, other than age there is no statistical reason to suggest Machado is "the premier 3B" on the market over Donaldson.  Defensively yes Machado rates higher is defensive stats like dWAR have any real meaning. I guess he would have the nod for age alone, but its not a given.  That age is also going to have him expecting more years and a higher price tag.
SS wise his offense could allow him to over shadow Andrus maybe, but he isnt likely to be the better defender so he better put up big numbers with the bet and get back up to the higher WAR levels for that to make sense.  
I think its a risk, there are more good SS in the game than their are top tier 3B and most of the money teams arent looking for SS.  
Just my opinion, nothing more

Once again, I don't disagree with you too much. But age matters a ton. If Donaldson were 26 them he's probably be there top of the 3B market, but he isn't. 

Andrus will probably be comparable defensively to Machado defensively at SS. But that's only about 40% of the game. Andrews has only had 3 of his 8 full seasons where he put up an OPS+ over 90. He's never put up a WAR over 5. Even in a down year Machado put up a 102 OPS+.

You keep arguing about is MM work the money he will get. But that isn't the question you posted at the start of the thread that everyone is responding to. Posters are responding to your original question if whether or not the move to short will help out hurt his value. 

[floplag]

19 minutes ago, Stradling said:

If I was running the team and I had to choose between giving a 33 year old a 5 year deal or giving a 26 year old a 13 year deal, I would either sign the 33 year old and hope for the best or I would go a completely different direction.  One thing is inevitable with both contracts, with Donaldson, you are absolutely paying for his decline.  With Machado you are absolutely buying his prime and more than likely his decline.  

I think the Donaldson contract will be something like 5 years $125 million.  I think we could see Machado get 12 years $360 million contract with a player opt out after year 3.  

Exactly, i agree.  You arent JUST paying for the good years youll pay for the decline as well in either case.  Its a matter of the investment being worth it for the prime and who can actually afford it . 
 

[floplag]

20 minutes ago, eaterfan said:

Once again, I don't disagree with you too much. But age matters a ton. If Donaldson were 26 them he's probably be there top of the 3B market, but he isn't. 

Andrus will probably be comparable defensively to Machado defensively at SS. But that's only about 40% of the game. Andrews has only had 3 of his 8 full seasons where he put up an OPS+ over 90. He's never put up a WAR over 5. Even in a down year Machado put up a 102 OPS+.

You keep arguing about is MM work the money he will get. But that isn't the question you posted at the start of the thread that everyone is responding to. Posters are responding to your original question if whether or not the move to short will help out hurt his value. 

Im not suggest Donaldson or Andrus are better players. only that they might make more sense to more clubs.  
I do think another down year hurts him and that he wont be able to hide behind the move to SS.
Fair enough on the original question, its wasnt limited to that necessarily but thats fine.  I agree hes going to get paid either  way, but if he flounders on defense at SS in comparison to what hes done at 3B, it has to hurt some, its just a big risk i think over simply staying the course.   so many he only gets 325 mil, lol