Matt Thaiss among Top 10 1B Prospects

[Second Base]

Second consecutive season. And they're right, he does have a lot to prove. He also has the best plate discipline of anyone on that list.

https://www.mlb.com/news/mckay-mcmahon-lead-top-10-first-basemen/c-264913432

[Gil]

I think the power concerns for Thaiss may be a bit overblown. The balls are so drastically different between the minors and the majors (https://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/the-minor-league-ball-is-such-a-drag/) that the MLB balls undeniably travel farther than the MILB balls. 

Considering his advanced plate discipline, he seems like the perfect candidate to take advantage of the MLB ball power boost. Granted, I don't have access to his batted ball profile in the minors (exit velocity, launch angle, spin rate, etc) so I can't say definitively but the Angels undoubtedly do have have the data and have advanced him aggressively through the system so they must have some hope as well. I'm not arguing that he is going to turn into a MVP candidate, but he could certainly become a solid regular. 

[Second Base]

Matt Thaiss makes extremely hard contact and is a strong kid. They come in the high line drive variety. Depending on the home park, he could hit between 10-30 HR's a year. In a thin air environment, his line drives will cut straight through the air and fly out. In a park with the marine layer and tall fence in RF, he'll probably hit 10....but likely more than 40 DB.

[Gil]

If he does make extremely hard contact, do you know if there has been any attempt to change his swing to maximize his launch angle?

[ukyah]

2 hours ago, Gil said:

I think the power concerns for Thaiss may be a bit overblown. The balls are so drastically different between the minors and the majors (https://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/the-minor-league-ball-is-such-a-drag/) that the MLB balls undeniably travel farther than the MILB balls. 

Considering his advanced plate discipline, he seems like the perfect candidate to take advantage of the MLB ball power boost. Granted, I don't have access to his batted ball profile in the minors (exit velocity, launch angle, spin rate, etc) so I can't say definitively but the Angels undoubtedly do have have the data and have advanced him aggressively through the system so they must have some hope as well. I'm not arguing that he is going to turn into a MVP candidate, but he could certainly become a solid regular. 

he'll be joey votto. end of discussion. i'll call back to this when he is, but if he isn't, then we'll both forget all about this post.

[UndertheHalo]

it would definitely be good if he hits closer to 30 then 10 homers.

[KDWells]

I like what I have seen from Thaiss so far, I need to look more into his defensive abilities. It made him a lot less exciting of a prospect when they flipped him from catcher to a first baseman out of college, if he was playing at 3B right now he would have a lot more buzz around him. He must be limited enough in his mobility that they decided it wasn't even worth a try.

[GrittyVeterans]

Adam Lind or Brandon Belt

[Dugout]

This kid has been in pro ball for 17 months, I think he has time to become solid at 1b, and add a little muscle.

He also looked good last spring playing with the big boys.

[tdawg87]

Not that I'm comparing Thaiss to Lord Trout, but Trout's HR power didn't really develop until he reached the majors. Granted, Trout was much younger. 

Trout had just 23 homeruns through 1,117 at bats. That's 1 every 49 at bats. 

Thaiss has 15 homers in 778 at bats. That's 1 every 52 at bats.

Now obviously Thaiss should be far more advanced at his age, but Trout was more advanced than anyone ever and he was barely a 20 HR threat until he hit the majors.

I guess my point is, Thaiss has a very advanced approach at the plate and a powerful swing. I expect him to continue his advanced approach, working a .370 OBP with a notch up in power before being called up in September/when Cron is traded.

I'm not worried about his power. That will come. I'm more concerned with his approach, and so far he's got it.

[Angelsjunky]

RAGING BONER (5%): Bonafide star; .300/.420/.530, 25-30 HR

HAPPY TO SEE YOU (15%): Borderline star; .290/.400/.500, 20-25 HR

HALF-MAST (25%): Good regular; .280/.380/.470, 15-20 HR

SLIGHT SWELLING (25%): Solid regular; .270/.350/.450, 15-20 HR

SHRINKAGE (25%): Platoon player; .270/.350/.400, 10-15 HR

MY NAME IS REEK (5%): Never catches on as major leaguer; Quad-A type; Japanese gash

[Second Base]

Power will develop in waves, the first for corner infielders tends to come at age 23-25 and the second 28-30. 

Judging by the shift in his body type, I'd say the transition has begun. He's a 10-15 HR threat across a full season right now. 

So I think the first 3 years of his major league career, you'll see a .280/.370 40 DB 10-15 HR type. 

In his prime though, I think Thaiss will be a .300/.400 40 DB 15-20 HR type.

[ukyah]

1 hour ago, Angelsjunky said:

RAGING BONER (5%): Bonafide star; .300/.420/.530, 25-30 HR

HAPPY TO SEE YOU (15%): Borderline star; .290/.400/.500, 20-25 HR

HALF-MAST (25%): Good regular; .280/.380/.470, 15-20 HR

SLIGHT SWELLING (25%): Solid regular; .270/.350/.450, 15-20 HR

SHRINKAGE (25%): Platoon player; .270/.350/.400, 10-15 HR

MY NAME IS REEK (5%): Never catches on as major leaguer; Quad-A type; Japanese gash

your obp numbers are way off.

[Angelsjunky]

4 hours ago, ukyah said:

your obp numbers are way off.

Way off from what? It is all speculative. The numbers I gave were good to very good plate discipline.

[Rico]

He is a good hitter, plain and simple.  So even if he is never a huge home run threat, I think he can make up for it by hitting over .300 and getting tons of doubles.  

[Rico]

6 hours ago, tdawg87 said:

Trout had just 23 homeruns through 1,117 at bats. That's 1 every 49 at bats. 

Thaiss has 15 homers in 778 at bats. That's 1 every 52 at bats.

 

Garret Anderson had 22 home runs in 2,042 minor league at bats.  (Age 18-22)  That's 1 out of every 92 at bats.

[AngelArcher]

6 hours ago, Angelsjunky said:

RAGING BONER (5%): Bonafide star; .300/.420/.530, 25-30 HR

HAPPY TO SEE YOU (15%): Borderline star; .290/.400/.500, 20-25 HR

HALF-MAST (25%): Good regular; .280/.380/.470, 15-20 HR

SLIGHT SWELLING (25%): Solid regular; .270/.350/.450, 15-20 HR

SHRINKAGE (25%): Platoon player; .270/.350/.400, 10-15 HR

MY NAME IS REEK (5%): Never catches on as major leaguer; Quad-A type; Japanese gash

Calling a .900 OPS player a borderline star is pretty tough. I think all your monikers should be moved down one slot and the top line should be labeled super star.

 

[eaterfan]

8 minutes ago, AngelArcher said:

Calling a .900 OPS player a borderline star is pretty tough. I think all your monikers should be moved down one slot and the top line should be labeled super star.

 

That was my first thought upon reading it. But, a .900 OPS 1st baseman seems to me to be about equal to Simmons. Legitimate star, probably not a superstar as far as value goes. Although, if Simmons hits like last year for a few more seasons then he's a superstar. 

Ironically, I think Thaiss would have more superstar potential (popular opinion wise) if his .900 OPS was more slugging based than OBP based even though its less valuable.

[Angel Oracle]

16 hours ago, Scotty@AW said:

Matt Thaiss makes extremely hard contact and is a strong kid. They come in the high line drive variety. Depending on the home park, he could hit between 10-30 HR's a year. In a thin air environment, his line drives will cut straight through the air and fly out. In a park with the marine layer and tall fence in RF, he'll probably hit 10....but likely more than 40 DB.

I’m good with 20 HRs, 40 doubles, and a .360 OBP yearly.

[JarsOfClay]

18 hours ago, Scotty@AW said:

Matt Thaiss makes extremely hard contact and is a strong kid. They come in the high line drive variety. Depending on the home park, he could hit between 10-30 HR's a year. In a thin air environment, his line drives will cut straight through the air and fly out. In a park with the marine layer and tall fence in RF, he'll probably hit 10....but likely more than 40 DB.

If Thaiss wants to develop more power then he really needs to change his swing from a roundhouse to more of an uppercut.  Right now his swing is an exact replica of Casey Kotchman who never developed any power.

I think the Garret Anderson comparison is fair.  I remember GA also had a roundhouse swing when he first came up then switched to more of an uppercut in 2000 and hit 35 homers that year.

Im obviously not an expert at hitting but all I see from Thaiss is a very long swing and finish like Kotchman, and I just dont see how you can generate much power like that.

[totdprods]

Given how Angel Stadium plays for left-handed power, I think I'd actually prefer he stick with the line-drive, doubles, contact approach rather than chase more power. He makes hard contact and he's a big guy - he'll have sneaky power regardless of how he progresses - much like what happened with Garret. 

I feel like this would be a great, and achievable, line for Thaiss, while being able to play 1B, LF, and RF.
.280/.350/.440/.790, with around 35 doubles, 18 HR, 70 walks, 100 strikeouts.

If he can provide that, you're looking at basically Kole Calhoun's best years, 2.0, and Thaiss is on track to be able to replace what Kole gives you hopefully within a year or two. 

We jump to Hermosillo and Jones a lot when we talk about who is the heir to RF, and yes, Thaiss may not have the arm or defense to stick there, but Thaiss could be in that conversation too, especially when offensively he profiles so similarly. Also hits left-handed. He has played zero pro games in the OF though, so if it doesn't happen soon, it may not be an option. 

We've posited the idea of our last bench player, or someone who replaces Cron, as someone like LoMo or Headley, a lefty-bat that plays 1B and COF. Thaiss may be that guy as soon as next year, and honestly, if he is doing well in '18, could make an appearance late summer, much like Kole did when he debuted. 

[Second Base]

1 hour ago, JarsOfClay said:

If Thaiss wants to develop more power then he really needs to change his swing from a roundhouse to more of an uppercut.  Right now his swing is an exact replica of Casey Kotchman who never developed any power.

I think the Garret Anderson comparison is fair.  I remember GA also had a roundhouse swing when he first came up then switched to more of an uppercut in 2000 and hit 35 homers that year.

Im obviously not an expert at hitting but all I see from Thaiss is a very long swing and finish like Kotchman, and I just dont see how you can generate much power like that.

I actually like Thaiss' approach. The game is filled with players that are gearing their game toward HR's. Hitters are more focused on lifting the ball and strikeouts aren't something they worry about.

And that's fine. Advanced formulas value a player with a .250 average and 30 HR's over a .280 hitter with 20.

But we have plenty of guys that will knock the ball out of the park. Kinsler, Cozart, Trout, Upton, Pujols, Cron and Valbuena. Even Simmons and Calhoun to an extent.

But someone needs to get on case in front of them so that those homeruns can double or triple their value.

That's where Thaiss comes in. His path to the ball is short, his follow through is long, which is straight out of the Tony Gwynn school of hitting. 

Thaiss will be an ideal #2 hitter.

[Chuck]

17 hours ago, tdawg87 said:

Not that I'm comparing Thaiss to Lord Trout, but Trout's HR power didn't really develop until he reached the majors. Granted, Trout was much younger. 

Trout had just 23 homeruns through 1,117 at bats. That's 1 every 49 at bats. 

Thaiss has 15 homers in 778 at bats. That's 1 every 52 at bats.

Now obviously Thaiss should be far more advanced at his age, but Trout was more advanced than anyone ever and he was barely a 20 HR threat until he hit the majors.

I guess my point is, Thaiss has a very advanced approach at the plate and a powerful swing. I expect him to continue his advanced approach, working a .370 OBP with a notch up in power before being called up in September/when Cron is traded.

I'm not worried about his power. That will come. I'm more concerned with his approach, and so far he's got it.

Yeah, Shawn Green was another guy who didn't possess much power in the minors but had a good swing from the left side and good on base skills. Even in Green's first three years in the big leagues he hit 15, 11, 16 HR's before busting out some legit power. 

In Green's 1260 minor league at bats, he only hit 18 home runs. That sounds a lot like Thaiss' HR totals thus far. In Thaiss first 778 at bats he's hit 15 home runs. 

[Angelsjunky]

9 hours ago, AngelArcher said:

Calling a .900 OPS player a borderline star is pretty tough. I think all your monikers should be moved down one slot and the top line should be labeled super star.

 

Maybe you are right, although let's not forget that he's a 1st baseman. A .900 OPS for a average fielding 1st basement might be 4-5 WAR, which is pretty much a borderline star or a minor star. But I agree, and will adjust the numbers and/or monikers.

[Angelsjunky]

Adjusted...

RAGING BONER (>5%): Superstar; .300/.420/.530, 25-30 HR, 6 WAR

HAPPY TO SEE YOU (15%): Star; .290/.400/.500, 20-25 HR, 5 WAR

HALF-MAST (25%): Borderline star; .280/.380/.470, 15-20 HR, 4 WAR

SLIGHT SWELLING (25%): Solid regular; .270/.350/.450, 15-20 HR, 2-3 WAR

SHRINKAGE (25%): Platoon player; .270/.350/.400, 10-15 HR, 1-2 WAR

MY NAME IS REEK (>5%): Never catches on as major leaguer; Quad-A type; Japanese gash