Forget Moustakas/Hernandez, let's get Frazier/Walker

[Angelsjunky]

Moustakas will likely require something like 5/$85-90M, maybe 4/$65M if he desperately wants to be an Angel and gives them a discount. Chances are he''ll be good for about 3 fWAR.

Hernandez will require at least a Skaggs type, and a couple good prospects, then cost something like 3/$25M in his three arbitration years. His fWAR prediction is probably 3.5 to 4.

Todd Frazier will probably be something like 3/$30M and be good for 2-3 WAR.

Neil Walker will probably require something like 3/$40M and be good for 2-3 WAR, depending upon playing time (health).

So we could either have:

A} Moustakas/Hernandez for $90+ million over the next 3-5 years for 6-7 WAR, plus losing Skaggs a couple good prospects, or

B} Frazier/Walker for $70 million over 3 years for 4-6 WAR, and no lost prospects.

I'll take option B for two reasons:

1) No lost prospects

2) Not locked into a relatively expensive non-premium free agent long-term.

Now the gap closes if 1) Moustakas accepts a four-year deal, and 2) the Phillies part with Hernandez for less than expected - mainly because I really like Hernandez (Frazier/Hernandez?). But I'm doubtful on both. 

Thoughts?

[totdprods]

I'm down. Nab an arm or two and second market guys (waiver claims, minor league deals) for depth.

[TroutField]

No offense but all of this has been said 100 times, everyone has their own opinion on the solution for 2nd and 3rd. 

[Angelsjunky]

 

Just now, TroutField said:

No offense but all of this has been said 100 times, everyone has their own opinion on the solution for 2nd and 3rd. 

Got something better to talk about?

Seriously though, I've had the same thought. We're all just spinning wheels and recycling the same ideas again and again. But...that's the point of Hot Stove conversation!

[CanadianHalo]

Kinsler and Frazier.

[Erstad Grit]

Something tells me that Frazier is going to get a lot more than what many expect and Moose will get a lot less than what many expect.

I read Walker wants a 4 year deal which is crazy. 

 

[Chuck]

The problem is we don't get a leadoff hitter in all of this, unless it's back to Calhoun or Simmons. 

[The_Outrunner]

Frazier and Cozart for me! 

[Inside Pitch]

My preference going into the off-season was Walker Nunez...   Walker is yapping about a 4 year deal so..  that's a hard pass for me..  But if he comes off of that 4 year deal nonsense he'd still my first choice.   Howie can be had for nothing other than money, pretty sure he'd be willing to come back to Anaheim for a team friendly deal, can play 3B, LF, has played some 1B..   Both Howie and Nunez bring a lot of versatility..   Neither guy will break the bank.   

Kinsler as a one year rental would be fine -- but he will cost some sort of organizational currency...
 

[The_Outrunner]

1 minute ago, Chuckster70 said:

The problem is we don't get a leadoff hitter in all of this, unless it's back to Calhoun or Simmons. 

That's a really good point. Kinsler it is

[krAbs]

I like Frazier-Hernandez, but for some reason I like Hernandez a lot. Obviously this will depend on prices.

[VariousCrap]

I'd go for Nunez at 2B over Walker.  He gives the team speed and a lead-off hitter.

Moustakas is not going to get that much.  Even MLBTradeRumors predicted less than that you posted.  I agree with the poster who says Frazier gets more a year than your thinking too.

I bet Moustakas signs for around 15 million a year and Frazier is over 12 million a year.

[krAbs]

It seems like literally every person here has a different solution combination. It seems like we have a ton of bad cheap options, and a couple expensive good ones. :/ 

[Warfarin]

This debate has been beaten to a dead horse, but what I will say is that it’s cool that we can shop in the premium talent department again.  In previous years, when we were near the cap, the focus was on dumpster diving.  Now, thanks to Billy’s vision, we have both financial leeway and leverage.  Good job, Billy! 

[Angel Oracle]

Would any of you do this?

Sign Cozart, and trade Jam Jones along with a borderline top 10 prospect and a MLB starting pitcher not named GRich or Ohtani for Suarez?

Suarez could finally be the 3B answer (good glove, plate patience, sock, and still only 26).

Defense would be really good at 3/4 of the INF, and intact for a while.

[floplag]

How about this one, if Frazier can actually play 2B, go Frazier / Moustakis.

[krAbs]

You know what's annoying? we have like...50 million dollars burning a whole in our pocket before we hit luxury tax, and no one worthwhile to spend it on. This is one of the few times where it would make sense to spend our way out of the position we are in, but like...no one out there is worth breaking the bank over.

[totdprods]

How's everyone feel about Kole Calhoun, leadoff hitter?

[UndertheHalo]

forgive my skepticism about Todd Frazier and his .213 BA.

I thought we were hoping the Angels were gonna be free to spend a little bit again. 

[DCAngelsFan]

48 minutes ago, VariousCrap said:

I'd go for Nunez at 2B over Walker.  He gives the team speed and a lead-off hitter.

Moustakas is not going to get that much.  Even MLBTradeRumors predicted less than that you posted.  I agree with the poster who says Frazier gets more a year than your thinking too.

I bet Moustakas signs for around 15 million a year and Frazier is over 12 million a year.

The compensation - lost draft pick(s) and loss of international bonus money - will impact the teams that have the most money (comp is meant to penalize those that exceed the luxury cap, and give relief to those that get revenue sharing.)  And Boras as his agent may backfire - Boras will want to keep him on the sidelines and try to get into a bidding war late in the offseason.  But if the rich teams pass, it might not happen.   

And looking at his stats, I'd be cautious - I mean, the 96 OPS+ can be somewhat ignored, since he's broken out in 2015 and more or less sustained things.  But his walk rate is down a bit, his SO rate is up a bit, and mostly, pate discipline has taken a step backwards(from fangraphs)

Season	Team	O-Swing%	Z-Swing%	Swing%	O-Contact%	Z-Contact%	Contact%	Zone%	Pace
2011	Royals	33.4 %	64.9 %	49.0 %	71.4 %	92.7 %	85.4 %	49.5 %	21.3
2012	Royals	34.5 %	65.0 %	49.1 %	63.4 %	86.2 %	77.9 %	48.0 %	21.8
2013	Royals	32.2 %	67.1 %	48.8 %	69.4 %	89.3 %	82.4 %	47.6 %	23.2
2014	Royals	31.8 %	68.3 %	48.3 %	78.1 %	87.4 %	84.0 %	45.3 %	24.2
2015	Royals	32.7 %	64.4 %	47.2 %	75.2 %	90.3 %	84.6 %	45.7 %	23.4
2016	Royals	27.0 %	60.8 %	42.2 %	76.8 %	91.3 %	86.2 %	45.0 %	24.1
2017	Royals	40.4 %	74.6 %	55.0 %	68.5 %	90.8 %	81.5 %	42.9 %	23.5

For comparison, here's all 3B:

2017                      29.4 %     67.5 % 46.4 %       63.9 %     85.8 %    78.1 % 44.5 %

So, last season, he swung at 75% in the strike zone and 40% of pitches outside the zone - that's ... not great.  His contact rate fell off a bit - 5 percentage points.  It's still good - but point is, I'd be very concerned at the trend over time - someone that swings at everything really hard seems awfully vulnerable to a quick regression.   I gotta think advance scouts have taken note, and may have some new adjustments waiting for him next season.  

And of course, his defense is just adequate these days. 

All that said, the mlbtr projection for him is 5/$85m - despite all the yellow flags, if that's his contract, he'll probably earn it, but just - guessing 9 or 10 WAR over the contract life.