Where is the interest in Hosmer?

[Dtwncbad]

Cron to me is the perfect trade piece to a small market team looking for cheap.  There is enough there for them to be comfortable giving him a full time job and not be let down when he slashes .262/.310/.430.

Hosmer is a very good bet to deliver more normal 1B numbers around .300/.360/.475.

It's probably a 3 or 4 WAR swing.

Why isn't the Angel fan base more interested in Hosmer?

[tdawg87]

Because he's a Boras client coming off a career year at a position we could use an upgrade but don't necessarily need one.

[Dtwncbad]

1 minute ago, tdawg87 said:

Because he's a Boras client coming off a career year at a position we could use an upgrade but don't necessarily need one.

You are good with Cron?  I think the guy is a major leaguer but he just isn't good enough.

Fangraphs has him projected in 2018 at .257/.311/.455 For a WAR of 1.1.

Personally I think the current Angel situation at 1B is screaming for a solution.

Cron can play 1B on .500 team no question.  But I thought the point was to be better than that?

[Erstad Grit]

 I'd rather use valbuena/cron at 1b and upgrade 3b and 2b. 

[Dtwncbad]

Contrived question but what would you rather have:

A).Cron/Valbuena at 1B and Moose at 3B

B). Hosmer at 1B and Valbuena at 3B and have Cron to use in a trade to upgrade another position

B seems quite a bit better, don't you think?

[jordan]

I'd rather go for Carlos Santana, so long that he doesn't accept Qualifying offer.  He's a switch hitter with pop, decent glove, and high OBP. 

[Inside Pitch]

29 minutes ago, Dtwncbad said:

You are good with Cron?  I think the guy is a major leaguer but he just isn't good enough.

Fangraphs has him projected in 2018 at .257/.311/.455 For a WAR of 1.1.

Personally I think the current Angel situation at 1B is screaming for a solution.

Cron can play 1B on .500 team no question.  But I thought the point was to be better than that?

Man, if you're gonna argue something using metrics -- it's best to make sure the metrics back your argument.

Fangraphs (Steamer), is projecting Cron for 1.1 WAR right? http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=12546&position=1B  Well, it's projecting Hosmer for 0.8 WAR  http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=3516&position=1B

So, let's apply your thought process to this -- "I thought the point was to get better".

[totdprods]

Hosmer every year before last:

.277/.335/.428/.763, OPS+ 107

Cron, career:

.262/.307/.449/.756, OPS+ 108

Not worth the $100m++ for the difference in production, even if Hosmer's year last year is his new norm. Not enough track record of that for me to feel comfortable spending that amount of dough.

[totdprods]

3 minutes ago, jordan111280 said:

I'd rather go for Carlos Santana, so long that he doesn't accept Qualifying offer.  He's a switch hitter with pop, decent glove, and high OBP. 

Same here, all day every day.

Addison Reed is my #1 pitching target, Santana my #1 hitting target, and I've felt that way since June or so.

[Inside Pitch]

4 minutes ago, jordan111280 said:

I'd rather go for Carlos Santana, so long that he doesn't accept Qualifying offer.  He's a switch hitter with pop, decent glove, and high OBP. 

If he accepts he's basically off the market - if they offer the QO, regardless of whether or not he accepts there would be compensation.

[Dtwncbad]

Full disclosure I am not some weird Hosmer fan. . .

But Hosmer is younger.  On base and SLG are similar but Hosmer just gets more hits.

Despite the cliche saying, I will take a hit over a walk.

[jordan]

Just now, Inside Pitch said:

If he accepts he's basically off the market - if they offer the QO, regardless of whether or not he accepts there would be compensation.

Obviously there would be compensation with a QO.  But at this point, it's time to win, not worry about a 2nd round draft pick, or whatever it is with the recent changes.  It's time to go for it.  Santana would be much cheaper than Hosmer, and probably better in the long run, or nearly as good. 

 

[Inside Pitch]

Just now, jordan111280 said:

Obviously there would be compensation with a QO.  But at this point, it's time to win, not worry about a 2nd round draft pick, or whatever it is with the recent changes.  It's time to go for it.  Santana would be much cheaper than Hosmer, and probably better in the long run, or nearly as good. 

I'm on board with Santana -- If they did go after a corner IF position he's the best choice IMO.   I like Nunez at 3B too -- I don't think he will be very expensive.

[AngelsLakersFan]

I'm gona boldly predict that Cron has a higher wRC+ than Hosmer next year, assuming Cron cracks 500 abs. Very bold.

[Dtwncbad]

8 minutes ago, Inside Pitch said:

Man, if you're gonna argue something using metrics -- it's best to make sure the metrics back your argument.

Fangraphs (Steamer), is projecting Cron for 1.1 WAR right? http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=12546&position=1B  Well, it's projecting Hosmer for 0.8 WAR  http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=3516&position=1B

So, let's apply your thought process to this -- "I thought the point was to get better".

Maybe you should take a closer look.

They project Cron to hit 25 hr and drive in 71 rbi.

They project Hosmer to hit 8 hr and drive in 30.

Call me crazy but the Hosmer numbers seem like an error and the Cron numbers seem generous.

I dont think it was reckless to give Cron the full benefit of the doubt with those projections and simply use common sense that the Hosmer projection was not square for a fair comparison.

[Dtwncbad]

2 minutes ago, AngelsLakersFan said:

I'm gona boldly predict that Cron has a higher wRC+ than Hosmer next year, assuming Cron cracks 500 abs. Very bold.

If Angels keep him this would make me happy.  I wished I fully believed in him.  Tired of the question mark.

[Ohtaniland]

The Yankees will have their eyes on Hosmer, Moustakas and Otani. They’ll end up with at least one of them. They’re thinking about DHing Hosmer. 

[totdprods]

Boston or NYY really are great fits for Hosmer. Both teams have a need and money and their ballparks are perfectly suited for him. At the very least his price will be driven up substantially by their interest.

[tdawg87]

43 minutes ago, Dtwncbad said:

You are good with Cron?  I think the guy is a major leaguer but he just isn't good enough.

Fangraphs has him projected in 2018 at .257/.311/.455 For a WAR of 1.1.

Personally I think the current Angel situation at 1B is screaming for a solution.

Cron can play 1B on .500 team no question.  But I thought the point was to be better than that?

I think Cron is fine given a full year of at bats. Obviously I'd love to upgrade but I don't think Hosmer is much of one and he's going to cost 20 million a year. Plus, we have Thaiss who could end up being a pretty good 1B. No reason to block him with a marginal upgrade. He has more potential value to the Angels than he does on the trade market IMO.

We have far bigger needs than 1B, is really all I'm saying.

Edited November 6, 2017 by tdawg87

[AngelsLakersFan]

3 minutes ago, Dtwncbad said:

Maybe you should take a closer look.

They project Cron to hit 25 hr and drive in 71 rbi.

They project Hosmer to hit 8 hr and drive in 30.

Call me crazy but the Hosmer numbers seem like an error and the Cron numbers seem generous.

I dont think it was reckless to give Cron the full benefit of the doubt with those projections and simply use common sense that the Hosmer projection was not square for a fair comparison.

The Cron projection is fine, it assumes he's playing full time, which makes 25 homers unsurprising. I don't know why it only has Hosmer down for 50 games. You should multiply his stats by three for a more accurate projection.

[Dtwncbad]

Fair position.

I guess I just can't help but be interested in Hosmer's OB%. . .

 

[Inside Pitch]

1 minute ago, Dtwncbad said:

Maybe you should take a closer look.

They project Cron to hit 25 hr and drive in 71 rbi.

They project Hosmer to hit 8 hr and drive in 30.

Call me crazy but the Hosmer numbers seem like an error and the Cron numbers seem generous.

I dont think it was reckless to give Cron the full benefit of the doubt with those projections and simply use common sense that the Hosmer projection was not square for a fair comparison.

Actually, I did see that -- I also saw Hosmer's WAR in each of the previous even number years...    FTR, mostly I thought it was funny.

Steamer is all over the place with playing time right now -- always is early in the winter.

[Ohtaniland]

3 minutes ago, totdprods said:

Boston or NYY really are great fits for Hosmer. Both teams have a need and money and their ballparks are perfectly suited for him. At the very least his price will be driven up substantially by their interest.

Yep the big market teams will be in the mix for the big fish again. Prices will be rising. 

[totdprods]

1 minute ago, Dtwncbad said:

Fair position.

I guess I just can't help but be interested in Hosmer's OB%. . .

 

Santana and even Yonder Alonso are just as intriguing if OBP is the main attraction.

[Dtwncbad]

Just now, AngelsLakersFan said:

The Cron projection is fine, it assumes he's playing full time, which makes 25 homers unsurprising. I don't know why it only has Hosmer down for 50 games. You should multiply his stats by three for a more accurate projection.

Or just use common sense.

Cron at a 1.1 WAR is quite believable and Hosmer's pattern of WAR, entering his age 29 season, projects him to be a much better player.