Firm no on Dee Gordon

[Lou]

16 hours ago, Dtwncbad said:

Ugh.  I'm already a broken record.  I loathe the idea of relying on this guy to be anything more than a zero WAR player.  Loathe it.

I would put Kole Calhoun at 2B before I felt comfortable relying on Gordon going forward.

His WAR numbers since becoming an everyday player: 

2014 - 2.4

2015 - 4.9

2016 - 0.8 

2017 - 3.1 

Labeling him a zero WAR player is disingenuous. In 2016 he played in only 79 games. In the others he played in 148, 145 and 158. 

Edited November 4, 2017 by Lou

[Dtwncbad]

1 hour ago, Lou said:

His WAR numbers since becoming an everyday player: 

2014 - 2.4

2015 - 4.9

2016 - 0.8 

2017 - 3.1 

Labeling him a zero WAR player is disingenuous. In 2016 he played in only 79 games. In the others he played in 148, 145 and 158. 

I dont know how on earth people skew things like this.  I didn't label him a zero WAR player.

I said I am afraid he slips to a zero WAR.

There is nothing to argue.  I am expressing my fear of him being a bad risk.

 

[Blarg]

And basing it on opinion without use of facts. You also projected a five year decline with the Angels when he only has three on his contract. Basically everything you've posted on this subject has been knee jerk reaction.

[Dtwncbad]

2 minutes ago, Blarg said:

And basing it on opinion without use of facts. You also projected a five year decline with the Angels when he only has three on his contract. Basically everything you've posted on this subject has been knee jerk reaction.

Yes it's my opinion.  Yes my opinion.  Opinion.  My fear.  My gut feel for this kind of player.  Yes.

And for the eighth time my emotional fear is he suddenly AT ANY TIME suddenly is not very good.

Call it a knee jerk emotional reaction.  Yes.  Thank you for understanding.

 

[Stradling]

There’s virtually no perfect free agent or acquisition.  The only ones that turn out perfect are the ones that cost nothing and blossom as a player, someone like Bridwell or Parker.  Gordon cost you a bit of money but very little in prospects.  Because of this there’s risk that he won’t live up to his contract because of decline. If you go trade good players and prospects for Hernandez you have a better chance of him being a better player, but at the cost of other players that will help the team. The same could be said for a guy like Mous.

[Stradling]

4 minutes ago, Dtwncbad said:

Yes it's my opinion.  Yes my opinion.  Opinion.  My fear.  My gut feel for this kind of player.  Yes.

And for the eighth time my emotional fear is he suddenly AT ANY TIME suddenly is not very good.

Call it a knee jerk emotional reaction.  Yes.  Thank you for understanding.

 

Ok so why would you show a five year decline when he would only be here for three years?  It would be like worrying about Valbuena for the 2019 and 2020 seasons.  We’re you worried about how Nolasco and Street would perform this coming year and the next?

[Dtwncbad]

1 minute ago, Stradling said:

Ok so why would you show a five year decline when he would only be here for three years?  It would be like worrying about Valbuena for the 2019 and 2020 seasons.  We’re you worried about how Nolasco and Street would perform this coming year and the next?

I'm not sure what 5 year decline anyone is talking about.  Reset.  I think guys who are good at baseball because of speed (Not good players who have speed) are huge risks to lose it at any time.

I view Gordon that way.

What is so complicated?

And I hated Nolasco from day one, and I have never been excited that Street entered a ballgame.

[Stradling]

17 hours ago, Dtwncbad said:

In a nutshell, guys that deliver all.or most of their offensive value from pure speed tend to lose it basically overnight.

You dont see guys stealing 60 at 29 years old and then fade down to 30 over a five year period of time (not that stolen bases is the measure but just making a point).

And if that is the case, a 29 year old Gordon could be a zero WAR offensive player with little or no warning as to what year that suddenly happens.

 

I’m going with this quote as you worrying about a 5 year decline.  

The guy is not perfect if he was we wouldn’t have the resources to get him.  In the last few years he’s had two 200 hit seasons.  How many of those are speed related, 20-30 a season maybe?  He would be here for his age 30-32 seasons.  Not a huge risk of losing all his speed during that time, and if it did he would still bat around.270 and would still get you 20-30 stolen bases, at a reduced speed.  I️ don’t even care if we trade for him, but he’s not a zero war player not in the next few years. 

[Dtwncbad]

10 minutes ago, Stradling said:

I’m going with this quote as you worrying about a 5 year decline.  

The guy is not perfect if he was we wouldn’t have the resources to get him.  In the last few years he’s had two 200 hit seasons.  How many of those are speed related, 20-30 a season maybe?  He would be here for his age 30-32 seasons.  Not a huge risk of losing all his speed during that time, and if it did he would still bat around.270 and would still get you 20-30 stolen bases, at a reduced speed.  I️ don’t even care if we trade for him, but he’s not a zero war player not in the next few years. 

The quote you reference says "You DONT see". . .meaning I dont expect a smooth 5 year decline.

And no matter how you read it I think I have been very clear at this point that my Gordon take is from the gut.

[Lou]

1 hour ago, Dtwncbad said:

I dont know how on earth people skew things like this.  I didn't label him a zero WAR player.

I said I am afraid he slips to a zero WAR.

There is nothing to argue.  I am expressing my fear of him being a bad risk.

 

You said he will be a zero WAR player and that you loathe that

Do you think if he plays a full season he will be a zero WAR player?  

[Lou]

How many players with great speed one year lost it the following year? 

[totdprods]

Even if by year three he's regressed to a mediocre and expensive .260/.300/.350 #9 hitting 20 SB guy, he'd be an improvement over our post-Kendrick guys.

That said, even though I'm way in favor of him, I definitely wouldn't give up much.

[Dtwncbad]

55 minutes ago, Lou said:

You said he will be a zero WAR player and that you loathe that

Do you think if he plays a full season he will be a zero WAR player?  

Details matter.  I never ever said he WILL be a zero WAR.

I said, in many different forms, I am afraid of him being a zero WAR.

 

[Dtwncbad]

47 minutes ago, totdprods said:

Even if by year three he's regressed to a mediocre and expensive .260/.300/.350 #9 hitting 20 SB guy, he'd be an improvement over our post-Kendrick guys.

That said, even though I'm way in favor of him, I definitely wouldn't give up much.

You are likely right.  Just have a bad, bad feeling here on him.

It doesn't happen often but my instincts are screaming in my head.  I acknowledge this is instinct and not statistical analysis just based on my fear that if this guy loses his speed, what is left to deliver value?

 

[Blarg]

3 hours ago, Dtwncbad said:

Yes it's my opinion.  Yes my opinion.  Opinion.  My fear.  My gut feel for this kind of player.  Yes.

And for the eighth time my emotional fear is he suddenly AT ANY TIME suddenly is not very good.

Call it a knee jerk emotional reaction.  Yes.  Thank you for understanding.

 

Black people aren't that scary once you get to know them. Just don't play Dominos with their cousin James because he will call your momma a bitch. He always does that.

Edited November 4, 2017 by Blarg

[Dtwncbad]

4 minutes ago, Blarg said:

Black people aren't that scary once you get to know them.

What the fuck does that mean?

Seriously go fuck yourself you race baiting, piece of shit cancer to society.

 

[ten ocho recon scout]

1 hour ago, Lou said:

How many players with great speed one year lost it the following year? 

Hamilton gave his speed up for awhile, but got it back later.

[Blarg]

3 minutes ago, Dtwncbad said:

What the fuck does that mean?

Seriously go fuck yourself you race baiting, piece of shit cancer to society.

 

https://adequateman.deadspin.com/the-caucasians-guide-to-black-barbecues-1730865233

 

[Dtwncbad]

For the record anyone who might remember from years and years on the other board might recall how much I had no faith in Peter Bourjos as a prospect and even after some initial success in the bugs I said basically the same thing about him being too reliant on his speed.

But I have a similar concern for Dee Gordon and the race card comes out.

This thread just turned.  When are people going to aggressively call out this fucking bullshit and stomp out the evil race card applied over and over again that perpetuates a fear in minorities that everyone hates them?

When?

[Stradling]

4 minutes ago, Dtwncbad said:

What the fuck does that mean?

Seriously go fuck yourself you race baiting, piece of shit cancer to society.

 

Haha.  

I’m a total jerk on here, however I’m not sure if you’ve noticed but your posting style leads to a lot of discussions with you ending like this.  

[Stradling]

I’d take Bourjos as our fourth outfielder.  He can’t steal bases but he’s the best base runner I’ve ever seen.  He’s also a plus defender. 

[Dtwncbad]

2 minutes ago, Stradling said:

Haha.  

I’m a total jerk on here, however I’m not sure if you’ve noticed but your posting style leads to a lot of discussions with you ending like this.  

How disappointing.  Someone comes flying is from the side and accuses someone of being a racist for literally no reason and I am the bad guy for telling that kind of cancer to fuck off.

It can't be tolerated.

[Blarg]

2 minutes ago, Stradling said:

I’d take Bourjos as our fourth outfielder.  He can’t steal bases but he’s the best base runner I’ve ever seen.  He’s also a plus defender. 

Revere is head and shoulders a better player for the 4th oufielder role.

[Stradling]

Just now, Dtwncbad said:

How disappointing.  Someone comes flying is from the side and accuses someone of being a racist for literally no reason and I am the bad guy for telling that kind of cancer to fuck off.

It can't be tolerated.

I’ll let him know.  I wonder why someone would attack you.  

[Stradling]

Just now, Blarg said:

Revere is head and shoulders a better player for the 4th oufielder role.

Maybe.  I think they do the same thing, but what you get for Revere’s stolen bases you give up to Peters defense.  They can both lay down a bunt.  I’d assume Peter has more power.  I’d trust Revere more to get on base and start a rally.