Eppler's Paradox & Conundrum

[Angelsjunky]

Here it is: The team has had a heck of a time this year with injuries, but in so doing revealed that it isn't far from being good. Consider that their lone superstar has missed 16 games now, plus they're missing their top three relievers going into the year, and are without four of their five best starters and they're still at .500...that's pretty amazing. If players like Trout, Bedrosian, Skaggs, and Richards come back, and maybe an upgrade at 2B, all of a sudden this team could be quite strong for the last two months.

The conundrum for Eppler is what to do at the trade deadline. It would have been easier for him if the team tanked after Trout got injured, but instead they've held in there, going 6-5. Of course there's still time; if, for instance, they go 10-20 in their next 30 games, things become a bit more clear. But if they keep hanging around .500, well, consider that right now they're 32-32 and only 1.5 games behind the wildcard. In a month they could still be within 5 games or so of the wildcard. The bottom line is that you simply don't sell if you have even an outside chance of making the playoffs.

I think the threshold for a decision will be the All-Star Break, which is July 10-13. The Angels have 28 more games until then, and it is also the time which would be earliest that Trout would be back. So Eppler is left weighing two things: one, how the team continues to play without Trout and the pitchers, and two, when (and if) those players will come back. If they're close to .500 and get generally good news about injury recovery, we won't see a sell off, and even perhaps augmentation (within reason). If they've tanked in the lead-up and injury recovery doesn't go well, we could see a big sell-off. Most likely the result will be somewhere in between, which is why Eppler has both a paradox and conundrum.

I suppose the one thing that makes the decision easier for Eppler is that they don't have a lot of tradeable parts that won't be part of next year's improved team. I mean, they could trade off a reliever or two, possibly a starter, but no one that would bring in a huge haul that would greatly improve the team long-term. So in the end, we will probably see Eppler wait until the last moment, and only shed parts in late July - and perhaps only those players who they won't need anyway if injured players come back, like Nolasco or Chavez.

Either way, back to the original point. I must say that I'm impressed that this team is still at .500, considering all that has gone wrong. If at least 2 or 3 starters come back healthy, they re-sign Maybin, and upgrade at 2B, all of a sudden this is a pretty good team in 2018.

 

 

 

 

[SigBaby]

One thing I was hoping they would do at the break last year was trade Bedrosian. I really like what Eppler has done with the pen and I think it is strong even without Bedrosian. I think that Parker and Middleton are very solid pieces and Bud Norris has been fantastic this year even though I don't anticipate him keeping it up. I think if Bedrosian is healthy and shows well before the deadline, we should trade him for a package similar to what the Brewers received for Tyler Thornburg in the offseason: a solid starting 3b , a top 15 organizational prospect, and a top 30 organizational prospect. 

3 potential trade targets for 2b i've identified include: Jorge Polanco of the Twins, Brandon Drury of the Diamondbacks, and Amed Rosario of the Mets. Each of these guys would represent a cheap, controllable option to hold down 2b for the future and are on competing teams in desperate need of bullpen help. 

I have faith in Eppler continuing to build a solid pen and i think we will be fine this season even without Bedrosian plus we will potentially have Bailey and Street coming back at some point this season. 

[Angelsjunky]

I think you are right, that if there is one area the Angels can trade from that would both bring a decent return and not be irreplaceable in the offseason, it would be the bullpen. That said, I would keep Bedrosian as his trade deadline value isn't significantly higher than some of the other guys for playoff teams wanting to bolster their pen, but he has much greater long-term value than anyone other than maybe Middleton. So keep Bedrosian and Middleton, listen to offers for everyone else.

I think he also will try to trade Nolasco and Chavez, but they have limited value. Chances are teams will be more interested in Ramirez and Shoemaker.

I'd love to see them trade Escobar, Revere, Valbuena, Marte, etc, for something useful, but don't think these guys have much if any value. One player who might garner some interest if he keeps playing well is Eric Young.

[Ohtaniland]

3 hours ago, Angelsjunky said:

Here it is: The team has had a heck of a time this year with injuries, but in so doing revealed that it isn't far from being good. Consider that their lone superstar has missed 16 games now, plus they're missing their top three relievers going into the year, and are without four of their five best starters and they're still at .500...that's pretty amazing. If players like Trout, Bedrosian, Skaggs, and Richards come back, and maybe an upgrade at 2B, all of a sudden this team could be quite strong for the last two months.

The conundrum for Eppler is what to do at the trade deadline. It would have been easier for him if the team tanked after Trout got injured, but instead they've held in there, going 6-5. Of course there's still time; if, for instance, they go 10-20 in their next 30 games, things become a bit more clear. But if they keep hanging around .500, well, consider that right now they're 32-32 and only 1.5 games behind the wildcard. In a month they could still be within 5 games or so of the wildcard. The bottom line is that you simply don't sell if you have even an outside chance of making the playoffs.

I think the threshold for a decision will be the All-Star Break, which is July 10-13. The Angels have 28 more games until then, and it is also the time which would be earliest that Trout would be back. So Eppler is left weighing two things: one, how the team continues to play without Trout and the pitchers, and two, when (and if) those players will come back. If they're close to .500 and get generally good news about injury recovery, we won't see a sell off, and even perhaps augmentation (within reason). If they've tanked in the lead-up and injury recovery doesn't go well, we could see a big sell-off. Most likely the result will be somewhere in between, which is why Eppler has both a paradox and conundrum.

I suppose the one thing that makes the decision easier for Eppler is that they don't have a lot of tradeable parts that won't be part of next year's improved team. I mean, they could trade off a reliever or two, possibly a starter, but no one that would bring in a huge haul that would greatly improve the team long-term. So in the end, we will probably see Eppler wait until the last moment, and only shed parts in late July - and perhaps only those players who they won't need anyway if injured players come back, like Nolasco or Chavez.

Either way, back to the original point. I must say that I'm impressed that this team is still at .500, considering all that has gone wrong. If at least 2 or 3 starters come back healthy, they re-sign Maybin, and upgrade at 2B, all of a sudden this is a pretty good team in 2018.

 

 

 

 

I think we've seen at least 3 or 4 buyers vs sellers threads so far this season but nothing will change the fact that we don't have an Ace, don't have any consistent hitters outside of Trout, don't have a real closer, don't have a second baseman to speak of and we are struggling in one of the weakest divisions in baseball. 

Eppler should sell sell sell because we certainly don't have the talent on the big club to make a serious championship run and the farm is garbage. There's really nothing worthwhile to call up in September.

Additionally some of the contenders that actually have a solid farm will get even better in September. We just don't have the horses and it's going to take some good trades and good drafts to get where we need to be.

[Troll Daddy]

I read the title as penis and condom ... I'll stay out and let you guys be alone.

[Farmbuildingfan]

I do not think that selling is in Moreno's DNA, even if the Angels are out of contention at the All Star break.

Any trade is likely to include  a few miner league players in exchange for journeymen who might help the Angels fill holes to ostensibly contend for next year.

The Angels do not have the quality of other organizations in the miners, so trading partners will want quantity to increase the probability of a return on their investment.

 

 

 

 

 

[Angelsjunky]

1 hour ago, CALZONE said:

I think we've seen at least 3 or 4 buyers vs sellers threads so far this season but nothing will change the fact that we don't have an Ace, don't have any consistent hitters outside of Trout, don't have a real closer, don't have a second baseman to speak of and we are struggling in one of the weakest divisions in baseball. 

Eppler should sell sell sell because we certainly don't have the talent on the big club to make a serious championship run and the farm is garbage. There's really nothing worthwhile to call up in September.

Additionally some of the contenders that actually have a solid farm will get even better in September. We just don't have the horses and it's going to take some good trades and good drafts to get where we need to be.

Eppler won't sell unless the Angels have absolutely no chance of making the postseason - otherwise it is a big fuck you to the players, most of whom aren't thinking "What's best for the organization come 2020?" Right now, in mid-June, they're 1.5 games behind the wildcard. I'm guessing he won't sell until that number is maybe 8-10, depending upon when, as well as Trout's health and the shape of Richards, Skaggs, Bedrosian, etc. If they're 10ish games out in mid-July, with no sign of Richards and/or Skaggs returning, and Trout is slow to throw off the rust, you might see him dumping saleable parts.

Now if the Angels go on a massive losing streak, they might sell sooner. But right now? Not a chance. Not yet.

[Docwaukee]

I know teams like to preach that they can only control their own team, but you have to look at who's ahead and/or around them and consider the likelihood of those teams staying where they are or getting better.  

I don't see the Twins continuing to do what they are doing.  Cleveland will take over that division and Minny will drop from the race.  

Boston and the Yanks are both destined for the playoffs in whatever form.  Texas, Toronto, Seattle Tampa, Detroit and Bmore all have as many flaws as we do.   All of them have similarly equal shots in my mind.  

The other thing to keep in mind is that Houston is running away.  Which means our only chance at a playoff spot is via the wild card.  Because of that, I am definitely not a buyer unless we're obtaining a long term solution to one of our problems.  I don't see that happening though as there will be plenty of other teams with better farms in position to get said player.  

Another thing to check is our run diff by base runs.  We're getting a little lucky in that regard, but not horribly out of line.  There isn't anyone horribly unlucky.

Like AJ mentioned, it's gonna boil down to those recovering from injury.  Trout is the most obvious, but Maybin was doing some great work a the top of the order.   Our starting pitching really hasn't been anything to write home about so getting Richards and Skaggs back would be huge.  Some additional development of Meyer and Ramirez would also be helpful.  But to have any shot you have to displace Nolasco and Chavez.  

The pen has been way better than I expected.  A testament to the way Eppler has implemented his philosophy.  

But I will say that if we're around .500 and 5 out of the WC at the deadline, Ia would like to see them sell.  To me, that's the cutoff point.  I would definitely move whoever isn't locked in for 2018, and I would consider moving someone under contract if we get blown away.  But trying to grab a WC spot at anything worse than 4 games back isn't worth it.  

[Angelsjunky]

 

2 hours ago, Dochalo said:

But I will say that if we're around .500 and 5 out of the WC at the deadline, Ia would like to see them sell.  To me, that's the cutoff point.  I would definitely move whoever isn't locked in for 2018, and I would consider moving someone under contract if we get blown away.  But trying to grab a WC spot at anything worse than 4 games back isn't worth it.  

You and I may agree with this, but will Eppler? I don't think so - not when he has to stroll through the locker room and look Pujols, Trout, Simmons, etc, in the face. I think if they Angels are looking at a double digit deficit around July 25, he can justify pulling the trigger, but not just five games out. That's a hot streak away from being right back in it.

[tdawg87]

Lol "hot streak"

[Ohtaniland]

4 hours ago, Angelsjunky said:

 

You and I may agree with this, but will Eppler? I don't think so - not when he has to stroll through the locker room and look Pujols, Trout, Simmons, etc, in the face. I think if they Angels are looking at a double digit deficit around July 25, he can justify pulling the trigger, but not just five games out. That's a hot streak away from being right back in it.

We're almost last in MLB in team OPS. We have a negative run differential. We are playing in the weakest division. We have way too many injuries. We have an already massive payroll with many aged veterans that no contenders will want and no farm. Trying to make trades to put us in serious contention this season would be like panning for gold. 

[Troll Daddy]

Dreams of selling for the betterment of the team is noble. Oakland has been doing it for years with great success. Our spare parts should bring in some top prospects. 

There's no shame in quittting if it's for the right reasons. The players will appreciate it and that their dream of winning a championship is growing near. The pressure of winning this season will be a big weight lifted off their shoulders. Let's just have fun and try to win some ball games for the fans. 

Will get them next year! I love that we can all share our dreams together. 

[Dugout]

We don't even have the levers or the moving parts to be a contender next year without getting the checkbook out.

[Stradling]

I would probably be sellers unless we go on a streak in the next few weeks.  Unless I'm blown away I don't think I trade Kole, Shoe or Simmons, it just creates too many holes next year and beyond.  If we are 5+ games under .500 around the deadline I'd trade all the pieces who aren't under contract after this season.  Players like Escobar, Norris, Maybin, Petit, Parker, Nolasco would all be on the block.  

[Inside Pitch]

I've said the same thing since before the season started - sure it would be nice if the team did well, but I'm hoping for enough good individual performances to be able to obtain some talent...   Nothing has changed for me, I figured they would start circling the drain once Trout went down but it hasn't happened yet.   Hoping Fister comes up soon, does well, and nets us a piece.  Maybin is definitely doing his part, some of the guys in the pen have as well.   So, we could yet end up getting a piece or two.

So.... In my perfect world.. get some prospects, get healthy, Skaggs, Trout, and G-Rich all come back after the deadline has passed and the team plays well giving us a better idea of what they have going into 2018.   

[Docwaukee]

6 hours ago, Angelsjunky said:

 

You and I may agree with this, but will Eppler? I don't think so - not when he has to stroll through the locker room and look Pujols, Trout, Simmons, etc, in the face. I think if they Angels are looking at a double digit deficit around July 25, he can justify pulling the trigger, but not just five games out. That's a hot streak away from being right back in it.

True.  That's why it depends on who's coming back from injury.  If we are just getting back to full strength at the deadline and 4-5 games out with only 1 or 2 teams ahead of us, then great.  Let's have a go.  

But it's not an easy decision.  What if Eppler starts getting some really good offers for Norris?  Frankly, I would see if he'd take a small 2yr extension.  Like 2/7.  That would actually make me feel better about not trading him.  Maybin is another guy with value.  For the second year in a row, he's putting up an obp near .380 but this year he's doing it with a 16.1% bb rate and a sustainable babip of .304.  He might also be a guy I'd consider for a 1+1 extension.  1yr with a team option.  We don't have a ton of value to move, but there is some and you are really only playing for a chance to play one more game at this point.  

It's just too early to determine right now.  I think our absolute ceiling is 88 wins.  I like us for 84 by seasons end.  But yeah, I certainly wouldn't jump the gun either way.

[Stradling]

Norris might be the only guy I trade regardless of being a buyer or seller.