Taking Stock

[fan_since79]

As the Angels approach the 1/3rd mark of the season, let's take a look at where we are.

22-28, a 71-win pace. Seven games back, a half-game out of last place.

Losers of 10 of the last 14 home games.

Richards and Heaney probably out until 2018.

Wilson pretty much finished, Skaggs returning at a time to be determined later.

Weaver and his 81 mph fastballs.

Santiago reverting to form.

Pujols hitting .229.

Cron entering another two-month slump.

Bullpen is a mystery.

Parade of AAA players pushed to the top of the depth chart due to so many injuries.

Needed: two/three more good (and healthy) starting pitchers, a left-fielder who can hit, three or four other players who can hit, and a better bullpen.

 

 

 

[TroutBaseball]

Wow, I didn't realize how great it sounded. But when you put it all together. . . 

[tomsred]

I think the starting pitching situation is the most distressing.  It has the makings of a long term nightmare.  It could dissolve into nothingness almost any time.  The pen isn't as bad as it seems, but they are way, way overexposed to effective.  When Street returns that should help stabilize things a little.

 

To pick off a couple of other things on your list, Pujols' low average isn't alarming me.  He's a run producer, and he has had some important hits for us.  We also need a guy like what Cron was supposed to be.  Instead we have quite a few quality singles hitters, but no difference makers offensively.

[fan_since79]

I'm encouraged by Tropeano's success, but also wonder if he can continue this over a full season. 

Lincecum is coming, but he's a roll of the dice. It would be a huge bonus if he regains his previous great form.

Santiago needs to settle down and remember what made him an effective pitcher in the first half of 2015.

If we get to enjoy the return of 2014 Shoemaker, that's another big bonus for this team. 

So, it's not all darkness at the end of that tunnel.

[Jason]

7 minutes ago, fan_since79 said:

I'm encouraged by Tropeano's success, but also wonder if he can continue this over a full season. 

Lincecum is coming, but he's a roll of the dice. It would be a huge bonus if he regains his previous great form.

Santiago needs to settle down and remember what made him an effective pitcher in the first half of 2015.

If we get to enjoy the return of 2014 Shoemaker, that's another big bonus for this team. 

So, it's not all darkness at the end of that tunnel.

It's just one big question mark though

[Docwaukee]

2 minutes ago, tomsred said:

I think the starting pitching situation is the most distressing.  It has the making of a long term nightmare.  It could dissolve into nothingness almost any time.  The pen isn't as bad as it seems, but they are way, way overexposed to effective.  When Street returns that should help stabilize things a little.

that's funny Tom because I was actually going to say the complete opposite.  

I think the rotation lacks front line talent, but I think it will get better as we get Skaggs and Tim in there.  I think Shoe won't be as good as his last two starts all year but I think he's figured something out and will be solid.  Hector is Hector and Weaver is Weaver.  It won't strike fear into anyone, but it will be serviceable. 

I feel like the pen is actually pretty bad.  I do think Street will help, but outside of Bedrosian, I don't see much upside.  I think Morin's gimmick changeup is no longer something hitters have a problem with.  Salas has pitched well and I know it doesn't sound very optimistic, but I am waiting for that to come crashing down.  Mahle is still learning, but he doesn't have the stuff to be anything more than a lefty specialist.  Alvarez isn't very good.  Smith's days as a premier setup guy are over.  There aren't any other options in the minors.  They don't miss bats either.  

Plus they have been overworked.  So if anything is going to continue to dissolve, I feel it's gonna be the pen.  

[gurn67]

.552 OPS from the black hole in LF. Worst in MLB.

[fan_since79]

Our starting pitching is dependent on the following wild cards:

Tropeano continuing to dominate

Shoemaker returning to 2014 form rather the terrible pitcher we saw in 2015 and the first part of this year

Weaver somehow pulling a rabbit out of a hat and confusing major league hitters with 75-81 mph pitches. So far the results have been mixed at best.

Santiago considerably lowering his 5.05 ERA since the 2015 ASB.

Skaggs being an effective pitcher after an eternity out of action following TJ surgery.

Lincecum rediscovering his SF freak days of old.

I'm with Tom, it has the making of a nightmare. Only is EVERYTHING goes right will this rotation carry us.

 

 

[fan_since79]

6 minutes ago, gurn67 said:

.552 OPS from the black hole in LF. Worst in MLB.

Matt Joyce with Pittsburgh this year: 1.084 OPS

[SoWhat]

Tank, tank, tank 

[Blarg]

The pen is bad because they are over exposed. Yesterday you had the pen do double duty again because of the starter going 5 innings and the offensive incompetence over several innings where they could have put the game away. These overtime runs taxes the bullpen's effectiveness considering they are not really supposed to pitch nearly everyone each game. The 5 inning starters are fucking this bullpen up since the philosophy has been to establish guys by individual innings rather than the old school of you now got the ball, pitch until we win.

That is one of the big changes in baseball, the specialized bullpen but with a team that doesn't have consistent starting it just doesn't work. We need more multi inning relief pitchers than guys that can only effectively do three batters at a time.

If I were to revamp the bullpen right now I would bring up starters from the minors for long relief and leave them in for two or more innings to get to those 8-9 pitchers. That would take a lot of strain off of six guys working 4 or more innings every other game. Two Long relievers, four specialists, games like today have one guy covering Tropeano until the 8th instead of 3 guys. The Angels may lose some games this way but they may win more with a bullpen that has their best arm rested and read to protect leads, rather than try to constantly minimize damage over 6 innings and burning out for the rest of the series.

 

Oh, and y'all can fuck off with the Matt Joyce updates. None of you asswipes would have signed him to clean toilets this year.

[fan_since79]

I was going to say Blarg has some great ideas there, but he ruined it with the heartfelt compliment at the end of his post.

Gee, did we miss our coffee this morning?

 

[Docwaukee]

We are currently 7th in reliever IP (172.1 ip )  and we are second in baseball in reliever games so Blarg's comments are correct.  The SP certainly hasn't done them any favors. 

But in general, I think they lack talent.  The over exposure is just making it worse, but the key players have only pitched about 2-3 innings above what they've done last year. 

Smith had 22.2ip through may last year and has 24.1ip so far this year

Salas 20.1 and 24.1

Alvarez 21.0 and 26.0

Last year Street had 22ip at this point as well and he has 7.2 right now.  

My point is that the increased exposure has forced us to use guys even further down on the depth chart.  So that's not good of course, but the back end of our pen just isn't very good.  Outside of Bedrosian and Salas, even our 'best' guys have been poor.  

I have a hard time believing that an extra 3 or 4 innings for any particular guy at this point is causing their poor performance as opposed to  the fact that Alvarez, Morin, Smith, Mahle aren't going to put up very good numbers anyway.  

[RallyPanda]

I came into this season with super low expectations, so I'm not exactly shocked by our performance. Did I think we'd be last place / only win 70 games bad and lose half our roster to injuries? No, but still, I was mentally prepared for a shitty season, so most of this stuff is just making me laugh at this point! I wouldn't be shocked if Trout tears his ACL tonight and misses the remainder of the season.

[AngelsLakersFan]

2 hours ago, Blarg said:

Oh, and y'all can fuck off with the Matt Joyce updates. None of you asswipes would have signed him to clean toilets this year.

I would have signed him to clean toilets. Fuck that guy!

[totdprods]

It's still technically May - I wouldn't throw in the towel yet, but if I was Eppler I'd be watching the next two weeks closer than ever.

By mid-June we should have a reasonable idea of where we slot into the standings, and a clearer picture on the health of key players like Lincecum, Simmons, Soto, Street, and Skaggs, all guys whose return could and should elevate the team further into contention. It will also give us that much more time to assess three key questions around primarily LF, SP, and DH. After the players returning from the DL, I think these three players are the key to the season. Is Ortega enough? Has Shoemaker retuned? Who is CJ Cron?

If those key players return in mid-June, we're still hovering around .500 and less than 10 back, and Shoe, Ortega, and Cron can produce over the next two weeks, I think they'll be in better shape than expected, and wouldn't mind seeing an intelligent deadline deal addition. 

Now, if by late June we are in the same place in the standings, Shoe, Cron, and Ortega aren't delivering, and we've suffered another major injury or setback, I think you base the remainder of the season on an update on Heaney and Richards health. 

[fan_since79]

Talking about Trout and ACL injuries in the same sentence is really beyond the pale. 

A certain individual might want to edit his post. If he does, I'll delete mine.

[tomsred]

Doc brought up some good points.  Yep, I'm worried about Morin.  It's almost like hitters have figured out what's coming.  Thinking about it we stand a good chance of losing Smith and Salas next year, and Alvarez is about as good as he is going to get.  Mahle and Bedrosian may be able to continue to improve, and I have no idea about D. Guerra.  It will take some money to improve things there unless we find a couple of farm gems.

My concern about the starters is the very long recovery process on the arm injuries that have been sustained, and even when completely healed (if that happens) they get back into the fight rather slowly.  Maybe the luster will be off the potential that many of them have had.

Hey, at least we are getting a look at the depth players Eppler signed, and some of what we have farm wise.

[Second Base]

5 hours ago, Dochalo said:

that's funny Tom because I was actually going to say the complete opposite.  

I think the rotation lacks front line talent, but I think it will get better as we get Skaggs and Tim in there.  I think Shoe won't be as good as his last two starts all year but I think he's figured something out and will be solid.  Hector is Hector and Weaver is Weaver.  It won't strike fear into anyone, but it will be serviceable. 

I feel like the pen is actually pretty bad.  I do think Street will help, but outside of Bedrosian, I don't see much upside.  I think Morin's gimmick changeup is no longer something hitters have a problem with.  Salas has pitched well and I know it doesn't sound very optimistic, but I am waiting for that to come crashing down.  Mahle is still learning, but he doesn't have the stuff to be anything more than a lefty specialist.  Alvarez isn't very good.  Smith's days as a premier setup guy are over.  There aren't any other options in the minors.  They don't miss bats either.  

Plus they have been overworked.  So if anything is going to continue to dissolve, I feel it's gonna be the pen.  

Man, I could not have been any more wrong about this bullpen so far. I never trusted Salas or Alvarez and that much hasn't changed. I did see Bedrosian developing, but where I've really missed is Morin, Mahle and Guerra. I thought they'd be better than this.

[WallyWorld]

I heard we were just a couple of players away from being good though.

[ettin]

Salas has a 2.22 ERA you can't ask for much better than that?!? I'm starting to think people just don't like him period.

Jose Alvarez has a 14.0 K/BB ratio vs left handed hitters. All of the damage has come when Scioscia tried him out over 10 innings this year against right handed hitters. If we keep Alvarez to just a LOOGY role he'd dominate them utterly.

Bedrosian is our future closer in all likelihood and I hope he continues to build upon what he's accomplished this year. Morin is just going through a rough patch like most pitchers do it is not terribly concerning to me other than the actual results. Mahle's stuff is good he is just suffering from Morin-itis. Guerra's a throw away but his slider's been working well this year but he's not a one pitch wonder unfortunately.

Angels just need more consistent production from their relief corps and the whole group throwing generally well at the same time. They have a good core of relievers to build on in terms of the future and I'm really warming to Doc's idea of bringing Kenley Jansen on over the offseason.

[Docwaukee]

25 minutes ago, ettin said:

Salas has a 2.22 ERA you can't ask for much better than that?!? I'm starting to think people just don't like him period.

Jose Alvarez has a 14.0 K/BB ratio vs left handed hitters. All of the damage has come when Scioscia tried him out over 10 innings this year against right handed hitters. If we keep Alvarez to just a LOOGY role he'd dominate them utterly.

Bedrosian is our future closer in all likelihood and I hope he continues to build upon what he's accomplished this year. Morin is just going through a rough patch like most pitchers do it is not terribly concerning to me other than the actual results. Mahle's stuff is good he is just suffering from Morin-itis. Guerra's a throw away but his slider's been working well this year but he's not a one pitch wonder unfortunately.

Angels just need more consistent production from their relief corps and the whole group throwing generally well at the same time. They have a good core of relievers to build on in terms of the future and I'm really warming to Doc's idea of bringing Kenley Jansen on over the offseason.

among others.  

Morin isn't very good Robert.  He's got an era of around 6 in his last almost 80 ip.  His first 25ip were great because of his gimmick pitch.  His fastball is bp quality and now that everyone has see his other stuff a couple of times he's gotten shelled.  

[ettin]

21 minutes ago, Dochalo said:

among others.  

Morin isn't very good Robert.  He's got an era of around 6 in his last almost 80 ip.  His first 25ip were great because of his gimmick pitch.  His fastball is bp quality and now that everyone has see his other stuff a couple of times he's gotten shelled.  

So this year yes Morin has not been good. His fastball velocity is down a full tick.

Last year however he was really good and his change up was pretty good on a per 100 basis. I'd argue that he could still be quite effective if his change up returned to its higher quality but this year hitters are seeing it better. Personally I feel like somethings just not right with his mechanics although the velocity drop obviously is playing a part.

You may be right Doc he could just be on the slippery slope down the hill but I'm not entirely convinced of that yet.

[Vegas Halo Fan]

7 hours ago, Dochalo said:

I feel like the pen is actually pretty bad.  I do think Street will help, but outside of Bedrosian, I don't see much upside.  I think Morin's gimmick changeup is no longer something hitters have a problem with.  Salas has pitched well and I know it doesn't sound very optimistic, but I am waiting for that to come crashing down.  Mahle is still learning, but he doesn't have the stuff to be anything more than a lefty specialist.  Alvarez isn't very good.  Smith's days as a premier setup guy are over.  There aren't any other options in the minors.  They don't miss bats either.  

Plus they have been overworked.  So if anything is going to continue to dissolve, I feel it's gonna be the pen.  

Another factor is that Street only matters when we have a lead - which when we don't score runs, isn't too often.

[Vegas Halo Fan]

9 hours ago, fan_since79 said:

Losers of 10 of the last 14 home games.

Only three teams in baseball have been worse at home this season: Arizona, Atlanta and Minnesota. Even the woeful Cincinnati Reds, who are 17 games under .500, have a better winning percentage at home.